Vashon Island Race

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 10, 11, 12, 13, and 14 May. Get ready for summer, it’s on its way! Perfect weekend coming up, if you’ll have wind will depend on where you are!

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Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 10, 11, 12, 13, and 14 May. Get ready for summer, it’s on its way! Perfect weekend coming up, if you’ll have wind will depend on where you are!

Our coolish spring is over and with near record temps today, you can expect more of the same (almost) for tomorrow and Mom’s Day. Cooling on Monday with the approach of a weakening front and maybe some very light rain. Speaking of rain, it’s only the 10th of May and we are already over ½” below average. As we’ve been saying, expect a warm and dry summer.

May 10 500MB
May 10 Surface Analysis
May 11 Suface Forecast
May 12 500 MB
May 12 Surface Forecast
May 13 Surface Forecast
May 14 500MB
May 14 Surface Forecast

Today’s surface chart, sat pic and 500MB analysis give us the reasons for our weather today. The 500MB chart shows the jet stream as far north as it has been since last fall with the jet stream coming ashore in SE Alaska. It also shows the Pacific High is beginning to intrude into the upper atmosphere. The surface analysis chart shows what was a weak high-pressure system off of our coast gradually gaining strength and starting to hold its own against the fronts coming out of the Gulf of Alaska. The heat over our area has also produced a thermally induced trough of low pressure that while currently over the coast will gradually drift inland over the weekend. The sat pic for today shows a crystal-clear day for the area, which should hold for the weekend. In addition to Mom’s Day, we will also experience the strongest (as in severe) geomagnetic storm we’ve had in 20 years. This means that with the clear sky we could have quite a visit from the Northern Lights. It will help if you’re in an area with low light pollution. This could be very cool.

About the wind, starting tomorrow morning the South Sound will once again be light. The San Juan Islands will have a nice NW breeze of 10-15 knots flowing down from the Strait of Georgia. The East end of the Strait of JdF will be light. The Central and North Sound will have a nice northerly of about 10 knots. By midday, this will remain pretty much the same except for the Central and North Sound where the northerly will build slightly over the day. For the Vashon Island Race, the question will be how long will it take for the northerly to fill down past Pt. Robinson and into the South Sound. It will eventually but it could be interesting getting around the South End of Vashon. The northerly should be solidly in place by mid to late afternoon, even in Colvos.

Enjoy the weekend but use sunblock early and often, you’ll need it!         

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 12, 13, 14, 15, and 16 May. Vashon Island Race

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Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 12, 13, 14, 15, and 16 May. Vashon Island Race

It’s going to be a perfect weekend to be on the water and especially to race around Vashon Island.  A downwind start, a nice run all the way to the bottom of Vashon, the usual light spot at that point, a nice beat with the current up Colvos, at Blake Island go across the Sound when you can lay Four-mile Rock, don’t go aground south of West Point, and then after West Point tack when you can lay the finish. Easy. Plus, it will be warm. Put the sunblock on BEFORE you leave the house and then re-apply before the beat up Colvos.

May 12 500 MB
May 12 Surface Analysis
May 13 Surface Forecast
May 14 500 MB
May 14 Surface Forecast
May 15 Surface Forecast
May 16 500MB
May 16 Surface Forecast

Yesterday the Pacific NW Offshore Race got underway off the mouth of the Columbia River in pretty much ideal conditions and today are in a bit of light air just south of Cape Flattery. That will change this afternoon when more of a NW breeze fills down the coast. The first boats should be in Victoria early Saturday morning.

What we have today and leading into what will be the warmest days we’ve seen this year is a weak ridge of high pressure that is building along the coast. As you can see from today’s Sat Pic we also have a thermally induced surface trough of low-pressure moving up from California. With high-pressure over eastern Washington, this will bring an offshore breeze over the area and a nice northerly to Puget Sound and it will last well into the evening.

The other charts of interest will be the upper-level or 500MB charts. The jet stream is now solidly into meridional flow and now comes ashore in SE Alaska. This will have the dual effect of bringing the warmer air up from southern California as well as keeping that big low-pressure system with its attached frontal systems trapped in the Gulf of Alaska and away from the Pacific NW. Let’s just hope the snowpack doesn’t melt away too quickly. Also, look at the 96hr 500MB chart. The jet stream will then flow straight into Seward. This has caused an upper-level, cut-off low-pressure system to form about halfway between Hawaii and the Pacific NW. The TransPac sailors are praying this doesn’t happen during their race.

The Vashon Race can expect 8-12 knots of northerly for the start and note that it’s northerly not NW. Yesterday and today in the 0900-1000 time slot there was more wind on the east side of the Sound with the west side pretty dead. There is also a NE component to the breeze on the south side of  West Point, Alki, and Three Tree Point which is also the shortest course to Pt. Robinson. Also, remember that if you’re using SailFlow, the anemometer at the Alki Lighthouse is broken and just stays stuck at 9-10 knots from the North, even when it’s blowing from the south.

At the south end of Vashon don’t get caught too close to the Island where the current can be on your nose and the wind very light. For the beat up Colvos you’ll probably have 10-14 knots of northerly and it will follow the bends as you beat north. There won’t be much tidal current so it will be easy to find the long, favored tacks as you work your way north.

Once you exit Colvos stay on the east side of Blake Island and beat your way up to Restoration Pt. At Restoration, it will be time to take the long port tack across the Sound to Magnolia aiming roughly at Four Mile Rock. Just remember it is plenty shallow from along the bluff from Four Mile to West Pt. After you clear West Pt, hold starboard until you can tack and lay the entrance to the Ship Canal, Then plan your approach to the finish line.

Have a great race, enjoy the day, and resist the temptation to jump into the water after you finish.

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 13, 14, 15, 16, and 17 May. Vashon Island Race

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs, Weather 0 Comment

Strange as it may seem, our weather is the envy of the country. For the most part, we in Western Washington have water in our reservoirs and a snowpack at or above 100%. Temps are below normal which is good to maintain the snowpack but tough on the home gardeners. As of today, we’ve had 2.26” of rain so far in May. The monthly average for this date is .8” and for the year the average is 17.69”  while we’ve had 20.67” so far.

Today’s surface analysis chart and sat pic show that we are nowhere near done with rain for this month with yesterday’s low just over the Cascades and three more very weak low-pressure systems lined up off the coast. The next system will arrive tonight and into Saturday morning. The third system will come through on Sunday following a very similar path.

May 13 500 MB
May 13 Surface Forecast
May 14 Surface Forecast
May 15 500MB
May 15 Surface Forecast
May 16 Surface Forecast
May 17 500 MB
May 17 Surface Forecast

The 500MB charts show that finally, the jet stream is starting to move to the north which will bring the high temps for Saturday and Sunday into at least the low 60s, finally.

Plenty of sailing going on this weekend with the Pacific NW Offshore Race that finally got started out of Ilwaco this morning after the Organizers wisely decided to not start yesterday morning with winds at the mouth of the Columbia River in the 30-40 knot range with higher gusts. Today’s start was much milder with the fleet now under spinnaker in 12-18 knots of SSW wind. Should be a nice ride up the coast with a nice run down the Straits to finish in Port Angeles. 

We will have Vashon Island Race tomorrow which should actually be pretty nice, with a post-frontal south/southwesterly wind of 8-18 knots around most of the day. Currents won’t be much of an issue with the top speed at West Point being only .8 knots of flood just after 1300 hours.

On the long course expect a beat in 8-12 knots of southerly and south of the north end of Vashon the breeze will start to clock to the SW. The short course boats will go to a temporary mark just NW of Pt Robinson and will have similar conditions. The key will be to not go too far to the west north of Pt. Robinson so you end up overstanding the mark and end up reaching in on starboard tack.

On the long course after Pt. Robinson expect the breeze to be a solid W/SW. Don’t get too close to Maury Island as while there may be a nice starboard tack lift in close to the beach it will also be lighter in there. At the bottom end of Vashon remember that the current pretty much flows west to east along that shore and if there’s any clearing that will allow heating of the island it will also be light along that shore.

Once in Colvos Passage find the axis of the current and ride that north. Don’t get too close to either shore and watch for the puffs to come from the west. After you sail out of Colvos, aim the boat for the barn as you should be in a nice SW breeze all the way to the finish. Don’t get too close to Blake Island as it will be lighter next to the Island.

The next challenge will be the finish as the line will be off the north end of the Shilshole Breakwater. Once you are north of West Point, you may have to take a gybe to get into the line. Could be interesting if you gybe early and you end up on a port tack approach to the finish with other boats coming in on starboard.

Have a great day.    

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 7, 8, 9, & 10 May 2021 SYC Vashon Island Race

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Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 7, 8, 9, & 10 May 2021 SYC Vashon Island Race

Considering what a weird year for weather it has been it probably shouldn’t surprise anyone that it looks like a fairly nice weekend for sailing. The very strange part is that there will be more wind in the South Sound than in the Central and North Sound. Plus, for once even though we are setting up for an onshore flow, after today the Straits won’t be howling.

Today’s surface analysis chart combined with today’s satellite pic show a weak trough of low-pressure over the Sound with a weak high offshore. This pattern will persist over the weekend bringing a predominately southerly flow along the coast and into the Sound for tomorrow. The high will gradually build over the area bringing light air for Mothers Day. Since it is a weak onshore flow there will be some breeze coming through the Chehalis Gap with a stronger push later in the day as the offshore flow shifts from southerly to westerly. If you like sailing in 5-11-knots of S-SW breeze, you will like tomorrow.

  • May 7 500 MB
  • May 7n Surface Analysis
  • May 8 Surface Forecast
  • May 9 500 MB
  • May 9 Surface Forecast
  • May 10 Surface Forecast
  • May 11 500 MB
  • May 11 Surface Forecast

The problem will be that dash between the 5 and 11. The breeze will be spotty in places and shifty along the west side of the Sound. From Shilshole to Pt. Robinson you’ll want to sail fairly close to the rhumbline and avoid the obvious holes. After Robinson, look for long starboard tacks and short port tacks so you don’t get too close to the beach where while there may be big starboard tack lifts in close, the breeze will be lighter.

The bottom end of Vashon will be its usual challenge with light air in close and better current well off the beach. Just find the happy medium, usually easier said than done.

Going north in Colvos will be sailing your gybe angles and trying to find the strongest current. As you get to the north  end of Colvos the ebb will be slightly stronger along the Blake Island side just don’t get in too close. From Blake to the finish will be staying in the breeze and not sailing too far off of rhumb.

Not a lot of definitive information here but it will be one of those days where keeping your head out of the boat, watching the puffs, and the competition will keep tacticians very busy.

The models are fairly consistent with the RP-55 and the TP-52’s finishing the long course by about 1630 hrs. The J-125 in at1930 hrs, the B-40.7 in at 2115, and the J-109 in at 2140hrs.

The J-105s on the short course should be home by about 1830 hours.  

Enjoy the weekend and leave your AIS on so I can track you.

Start Stop Start Stop Vashon

Kurt Hoehne Racing 1 Comment
Start Stop Start Stop Vashon

It was one of those Puget Sound Races where everybody gets to win, but the last one to win is declared the real winner. A wandering convergence zone meant the Seattle Yacht Club Vashon race last Saturday was one of those races that kept everybody engaged. We have a few reports a few found photos to tell the story.

First off, we have Megan Kogut “from the narrow stern of Elixir.”

Two weeks ago, Elixir was in the PSSR race report solely by virtue of being the only boat in our class among nine PHRF boats total at the line. There was some associated worrying about PHRF boats, one by one, hanging up their spinnaker sheets for good.

So I hope it is with some cheering, or at least some coffee spilling, that we are in the report this time for our first place overall in the short course at the Vashon Island Race.

Elixir battling with a pair of J/105s

But, it must be understood that that win was handed to us by three rolling shutdowns of the wind on the return trip, thanks to the convergence zone going north with us. It was almost as the winds wanted to make a point about the back of the fleet. We just happened to be deeper into the southerly by virtue of being slower, and the leaders were working its northern edge. We came rather close to the leaders at Three Tree Point, where they must have waited for wind for a couple of hours. We bunched up again at Alki and at West Point. And so all we had to do was take what was on the plate, greatly helped by crew members Andy Cross and Jenna Swalin. We had a fabulous view from the back row of what everyone was doing, like a menu of what to do and what not to do. Jarred and I have been making the best of this view for years, learning a lot even though last year was our first first full season of racing. But it was great being in the mix with J/105s and boats in our class at the end of the race in a variety of conditions, and across the finish line in variable winds and strong current.

I want to take this opportunity to encourage other PHRF-NW boats, old and new, to get out there. It’s not fun getting dropped off the back, but if you are, you’re still so far ahead of getting off the dock. And, again, that back seat view is unbeatable for learning. Lastly, you never know what’s going to happen out there. Yesterday was tricky at first, but then it was a total treat.
Megan Kogut

Then we have a report from Otto Helm sailing somewhere in the cruiser racer class. It should be noted that there were nine finishers in the cruiser/racer class, the most of any class. Here’s Otto:

1) Race was started after a postponement awaiting wind to fill from the NNW – resulting in a downwind start in light winds.

2) For the cruiser/racers that headed to Blakely Rock, winds were variable with no clear ‘best path’ – those who stayed on the center seemed to do a bit better.

3) At the Blakely Rock mark, the course was to Duwamish Head – those who could carry their asymmetrical spinnakers (or even symmetricals with pole on forestay) on a reach were cooking across  Elliott Bay – until close to the mark when there a drop in wind and a ferry that cut in front of some competitors resulting in loss of headway – the back-end of the fleet had difficulty in getting around the mark and the gains that some had made with their spinnaker reaching vanished into the light air. Some competitors overstood the mark which turned out to not be a bad thing as the wind died just inside the mark.

The “start.”

4) Heading back to Shilshole for the finish line, those who stayed in the center seemed to do better than those who stayed on the Magnolia side. After West Point, the wind got very light inside and those who had stayed out were rewarded.

View from the cruiser/racer class.

Overall, the Cruiser/Racer class was  competitive with – a lot of fun with some great boat on boat battles that went back and forth.  It would be great to get even more cruiser/racers out for the Blake Island Tri-Island Race on June 1 (Cruiser/Racer course is around Blakely Rock, round a temporary mark near West Point and finish line in front of Elliott Bay Marina)

In the big boat ORC class, the TP 52s and Crossfire all took turns at the front and the back of the fleet. If you want a glimpse of the big boat ORC class, check out Marek Omilian’s blog post. Here’s a shot onboard Crossfire from Malcolm MacNeil’s Facebook page and a shot from the deck of Sonic:

Ed. Note: Some people may tear their hair out at these kinds of “crapshoots,” but I have to say I think races like these are just fine. You learn a lot, especially focus. The trick is to not take the results too seriously. KH

Bruce’s Brief for 10, 11 and 12 May & SYC Vashon Island Race

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs, Racing, Weather , 0 Comment

Protection Island: Maybe a bit too much wind. Vashon: maybe not enough. And so it goes in Puget Sound or even for the Oregon Offshore which started yesterday off of Astoria and as of the morning the fleet is going fairly slow well south of Tatoosh with a forecast for light air in the Straits maybe even an easterly as this offshore flow may persist until late this afternoon. A stronger onshore flow will develop on Saturday and that will cause the problem for the Vashon Race. The onshore flow will not only come down the Straits, but it will also flow in through the Chehalis gap with the meeting point being the south Sound and Vashon Island creating a very frustrating situation for sailors.

By mid-afternoon tomorrow there will be quite a strong flow coming down the Straits with the potential for gale warnings in the central and eastern Straits. Unfortunately, it will take longer to work its way down the Sound. Then as the sun gets closer to setting, it is once again going to become light and shifty.

  • May 10 500MB
  • May 10 Surface Analysis
  • May 11 Surface Forecast
  • May 12 Surface Forecast
  • May 13 500MB
  • May 14 Surface Forecast

With the current weather models, I have the TP-52’s and Crossfire around the long course in about 11 hours. I have the J-105’s around the short course in 16 hours. Don’t forget it’s Mothers Day on Sunday…..

Tides will not be much of an issue until early Saturday evening when the wind starts to go light.

Tidal Current at West Point.

0742       .58knts   Flood

1024       Slack

1136       .15knts   Ebb

1306       Slack

1948       .98knts   Flood

2300       Slack

As far as tactics go, as we noted last weekend, the northwesterly will build on the west side of the Sound first, just don’t lose track of sailing the shortest possible course to get to Pt. Robinson. From Pt Robinson to the bottom end of the Island could be a very light, like wind seeker light, beat. Then you’ll have to get into the constant ebb in Colvos and hope that it will sweep you up the Passage to the northwesterly.

The short course boats will be challenged to sail south in very light air until about mid-afternoon. Then it will be, sail your angles and sail the shortest possible course. Once you round the mark the short course will be to sail up the east side of the Sound. Especially working your way up under Magnolia to get get to West Point.

Overall, it should be a lovely day on the water just be sure to put a lot of sunblock on.

Have a safe and fun race!

Spectacular Conditions for Vashon Race, Rivalries Developing

Kurt Hoehne Racing , 0 Comment
Spectacular Conditions for Vashon Race, Rivalries Developing

Seattle YC’s second of three Tri-Island races, the Vashon Island/Pt. Robinson (short course) Race, could hardly have been sailed in better conditions last Saturday. The solid northerly whisked the fleet to the south end of Vashon Island, and after some predictably screwy conditions at getting around the end of Vashon, the fleet enjoyed a solid beat in great breeze to the finish.

Long Course

Steve Johnson’s TP 52 Mist picked up its first big victory, finishing third on the water to Smoke and Glory, but correcting on both in the ORC 1. The three boats were within four minutes of each other on the water and on corrected time. Jim Marta’s Eye Candy scored her second series win with a 20+ minute victory in ORC 2.

On the PHRF side of things it was Bob Strong’s Firefly (with her rating straightened out) that won her class and overall. Madrona and Absolutely finished second and third. Brad Baker of Swiftsure Yachts provided some insight into Firefly‘s race:

The race really played into our hands. We were short handed, so basically tried not to get fancy both tactically and maneuvers wise. Consequently we really didn’t bang any corners on the way down and actually did pretty well against the first three fast boats, Madrona, Absolutely and Constellation.  The wind got funky after Point Robinson, but managed to fill in right with us as we headed to the south end of Vashon. This kept everyone close. At the south end the transition again shortened up as the wind filled with us again and we were very close to Madrona and Absolutely and actually passed Constellation at the south end. We managed to have a reasonably good sail change from the #1 to the #3 as we headed into Colvos Passage. Other than a jib halyard cover failing we had a pretty error free time of it. Thanks to Pete McGonagle’s quick reaction and a quick change to another halyard we kept losses to a minimum. Again on the beat back we realized we were in a very good position, so we tried hard not to do anything stupid and just hold on.  The biggest risk/gain on the beat was deciding to follow Madrona on the west side of Blake Island. This was the way to go and cemented our lead on Constellation, caught us up to Absolutely and kept us hot on the heels of Madrona.  We pretty much did what Madrona did for the rest of the beat to the finish. It was as good as it gets as far as the sailing goes and the wind gods conspired with us to for a good day for Firefly!

Short Course

A number of great rivalries and very close scores mark the short course classes. Last Tango won the J/105 class and overall, giving her the lead in J/105 class for the series. Different Drummer won the Vashon Race, but the Beneteau 36.7 Helios barely sits atop the class 5 for the series by virtue of her win in Smith Island. Actually, four boats are within two points, so it’s all to play for the final race of the series. And in class 7, Madam Pele and Kiwi Express have developed quite the rivalry, with each winning a race and going into the last race of the series tied.

The cruiser/racer classes have fully established themselves in the Tri Island series. A dozen boats split into two classes competed, with Jim Medley’s Bavaria 38 Puffin winning class 8 and Ryan Helling’s Velella winning class 9. Ryan Helling (who lives aboard Velella!) gave us this synopsis of the race:

The race was great. We were really all in awe of the weather. Our course was from Shilshole to Blakely Rock to Duwamish Head and back to Shilshole with consistent breeze that built steadily after rounding Duwamish. The whole racer/cruiser class was flying sails which keeps things interesting. It was a broad range of boats but all quite competitive. There was only about a 20 minute spread of corrected time over the full class of 12 boats! We finished shortly after noon, barbequed back at the dock at Shilshole, then sailed to Port Madison for the night!

And how about these photos from Jan Anderson. Click here for the rest.

 

 

 

Vashon Island Race Shuffle

Kurt Hoehne Racing 0 Comment
Vashon Island Race Shuffle

The Vashon Island Race last Saturday threw a little bit of everything at the fleet, from breeze-on conditions to a few agonizing holes that snatched defeat from victory. It was also a great example of why racing on Puget Sound is so entertaining. It’s a beautiful course around the some extraordinary scenery, a definite mental puzzle to work around the currents and geographical windshifts and, for better or worse, the kind of race where you’re never really out of it ’til the finish horn sounds.

I heard from a couple of guys on those ridiculously fast 50-something footers.

Sailish’s Bruce Hedrick was naviguessing Crossfire around the course. “Other than a terrible start, I think we sailed a near perfect upwind leg. Threaded the flukey stuff from Blake Island to Three Tree Point, put a huge hurt on Smoke and Neptune’s Car but couldn’t shake Glory. Then right before Point Robinson, being slightly more to the west, we got above a northbound freighter that Glory had to go below and that put us on the inside of a continuous lift. Where we just continued to take advantage of and really put them away.

We had a huge lead starting up Colvos, then got into the hole first. No magic way to get around that hole while they brought the new wind up with them. Oh well, it is Putrid Sound.” 

Skip Anderson of Flagship Maritime pointed out some proper commercial/racer traffic interaction on Facebook, which it seems everyone should hear about. See photo below. Skip explains: “The ferry was neither “following a vessel traffic lane” nor in a narrow channel, so was simply a “power driven vessel”. Recognizing that the sailing vessel was the stand on vessel, the ferry sounded three (3) short blasts (“I am operating astern propulsion”), gave “Smoke” ample room to pass ahead, and the moment passed without incident. Nice to witness in person.”

Once again, Jan Anderson has been kind enough to lend some photos to this story. Go to her site to see the rest.

And on the aforementioned Glory, 48 North editor Joe Cline enjoyed a new-to-him role on the TP 52 Glory. “Saturday was great. We had a different main trimmer and a new jib trimmer (me). The stand-in main trimmer, Scott Smith, is vastly experienced, but considering my inexperience in that role and generally having people out of position, I felt good about finishing second less than a minute behind Smoke. 

“But really, any Vashon Island race that you finish in daylight is a good race! There was a little cell with breeze in the teens down south, but otherwise it was light to moderate with mercifully little rain.  The fun trip up Colvos required a ton of jibes (I was glad not to be on the grinder pedestal for that one Ed. Note, his usual spot)!  I’m nursing my first sunburn of the year, and couldn’t be happier about it.  

“It was really rewarding to get the promotion to trimmer for the day, and to try to put into action what I’ve observed about the absolute WORLD of ways to affect different shapes on those boats. Those floating leads, man! There were certainly a few fraught moments, but overall what a great experience and a steep learning curve. 

“No joke, I had a dream about floating lead placement the night after the race.”

As the second of Seattle YC’s Tri-island series, it sets the scene for the grand finale of the Blake Island Race on June 3. Terremoto and Kiwi Express are in charge of the overall long and short course PHRF divisions with a pair of bullets each. The ORC Long Course class has become very interesting with Smoke winning Vashon. The top three boats are separated by only two points, with Glory just ahead of Smoke and New Haven.

Results here. 

Among the cruisers it’s Jiminy, Runaway and Puffin with three, four and five points respectively. There are a lot really good sailors in that class who probably just don’t want to pull their anchors off the bow and stack the rail. I get it. It’s great to see the cruiser/racer class becoming more popular, and I’ll bet that for Blake Island there will be some pretty focused cruisers.

Bruce’s Weather Brief for May 13-14, Mother’s Day and SYC Vashon Island Race

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs, Racing, Weather , , 0 Comment
Bruce’s Weather Brief for May 13-14, Mother’s Day and SYC Vashon Island Race

It certainly won’t exactly be the nicest of weekends but Sunday will be the better of the two days. The problem is a very persistent upper-level low-pressure system which is just not moving very much and will keep cool, unstable air coming ashore all weekend. Take a look at the attached Langley Doppler from this afternoon and then compare it to tomorrow morning before you head out.

For now, check the current surface chart and the current 500MB chart to get a feel for what is actually going on. As you can see from tomorrow’s chart, the surface gradient will have opened up and the remains of a weakened frontal system will be approaching the coast. The really cool feature about that chart is the Pacific High which is looking very summer like. About the right pressure, 1040 MB, and in very much the right place. The only problem may be that this is a little early in the summer cycle for this to be occurring. If however, Comanche were starting TransPac tomorrow, she would absolutely blitz the record. We’ll see.

The models have come together nicely for tomorrow so we’ll roll the dice and put this out there. As always, check all your resources before you leave the house tomorrow morning. Cool, unstable air coming ashore doesn’t make for a tremendously accurate forecast.

Tidal Currents

West Point

0618      Slack

0800      Max ebb                .43 knots

1042      Slack

1606      Max flood             1.14 knots

1924      Slack

Narrows north end

0700      Slack

1118      Max ebb                3.98 knots

1430      Slack

1654      Max flood             3.95 knots

2054      Slack

There should be enough wind to allow the Vashon Island Race to start on time which is about an hour after max ebb, we still need to remember that the ebb will extend because of the amount of rain today and what will be flowing out of the Duwamish. There will probably still be a localized SE breeze at Shilshole, however at West Point it will probably be time to think about getting to the west anticipating a shift to the WSW as the day goes on.

As usual, in these conditions, it may get a bit fluky from the north end of Vashon to Pt. Robinson where, if we’re lucky, the WSW will finally start to build to 8-12 knots. You’ll want to be careful to not get too close to the Vashon shore as the wind will be coming over the Island and may not touch down until well offshore. At the bottom end of the Island stay out a ways to avoid the eastward flowing current that pretty much always run there. Get into the ebb up Colvos Passage and don’t get too close to either shore. Drivers and spinnaker trimmers will be working very hard all the way up Colvos. This will not be “Miller time”.

From the north end of Colvos to West Point, the wind will probably back from the SW to the S so you’ll need to anticipate the gybe and your approach to the finish. Watch gybing in north of West Point as this can get light from West Point to the Ship Canal.

For those of you going cruising this weekend, no real major issues of too much breeze except in the eastern end of the Straits and the San Juan Islands in the early Sunday morning hours when you should be at anchor. Just make sure you’ve got plenty of scope out and plenty of room to swing.

Have a great weekend and do something nice for mom!