We are clearly transitioning into fall as evidenced by the leaves on the trees turning and the evening temps getting decidedly cooler. While it is the last weekend in September we still have two more months of hurricane season and Hurricane Rosa is now a Cat 4 storm aiming to come ashore in the northern part of Baja late Monday or early Tuesday. It won’t be a Cat 4 or even a hurricane when it does arrive however it will bring some wind and plenty of rain.
Then we also have Tropical Storm Kirk in the Atlantic headed into the Caribbean with plenty of time for more systems to form off of Africa with conditions being very favorable. So we shall see.
For the Pacific Northwest the surface chart for Saturday is very interesting with NINE low-pressure systems (counting Rosa) dominating the weather from Mexico to Alaska and out to the mid-Pacific. There is also that one 1039MB High in BC which is fairly strong and will be sending light NE breezes into the Strait of Georgia, Strait of JdF, and northern Puget Sound on Saturday. The rest of the Sound will be light and variable as a weak frontal system makes it way onshore late Saturday or early Sunday. This will bring pre-frontal conditions (ESE wind 5-12knots) to the eastern Strait of JdF and light conditions over the rest of Sound.
Surface Analysis September 28
500MB September 29
Surface Forecast September 29
Surface Forecast September 30
Surface Forecast October 2
Next weekend we’ll have a more definitive forecast for the Foulweather Bluff Race out of Edmonds which, as always, will be a great event.
Enjoy this weekend and spend some time out on the water.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
Clearly, it has been a week of transition as we move inexorably closer to fall. We still have a medium strength high (1031MB) in the mid-Pacific and two very weak low-pressure (1013MB) systems off the coast to the northwest of us. This will result in a weak onshore flow over the weekend. By Sunday we’ll have a weak frontal system off the coast which will bring pre-frontal conditions to the Salish Sea and perhaps some rain by Sunday night into Monday.
Click any image to enlarge.
September 14 Surface Chart
September 15 500MB
September 15 Surface Forecast
September 16 Surface Forecast
September 18 500MB
September 18 Surface Forecast
For boaters on Saturday, this pattern will mean 10-12 knots of southerly for the central and south Sound and very light conditions for the eastern and central Straits. Sunday the wind strength will be about the same but from the southeast as the next front approaches. In the morning hours, the SE breeze will be up to 15-20 knots in the northern part of Admiralty Inlet and the eastern part of the Straits. As this weak front approaches expect the breeze to ease over the entire area.
As always, check the VHF weather radio for conditions along your route before you leave. It’s the time of year where conditions can change rapidly.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
Yeah, it’s getting cooler and cloudier but no reason to give up on boating yet. When you look at the Sat pictures for today you’ll see that there simply isn’t much moisture in the system for this weekend. Scattered drizzle at best. The good news for sailors is that we’ll have wind in the Center Sound for both days. The bad news is that if the boat is still up in the Gulf or San Juan Islands the trip back might get a little rough, especially on Sunday when the next front approaches.
Click to enlarge.
September 7 500MB
September 7 Surface Chart
September 8 Surface Forecast
September 9 Surface Forecast
September 11 500MB
September 11 Surface Forecast
You can see from the charts that we’ll have a frontal system that will move into the area tonight and then weaken by Saturday morning. This will be followed by a weak onshore post-frontal flow through the day on Saturday. Another front will approach the coast on Sunday and move inland Sunday night. This will create a strong pre-frontal flow of southeasterly wind over the area especially from Point No Point north into the San Juan and Gulf Islands. The central and south Sound will see 10-15 knot south-southeasterly wind most of the day. In other words, great sailing!
The Tuesday (11 Sept Chart) has a number of interesting features the primary one being a medium strength low (988MB) in the central Pacific which will have the effect of further degrading what is left of the Pacific High. This will have the added effect of driving Hurricane Olivia on a course that is slightly south of due west and putting the Hawaiian Islands squarely in the crosshairs. As if they haven’t had enough rain already this year and then there’s yet another Tropical depression forming right astern of Olivia which will probably follow a similar path. The problem will continue to be that the jet stream is well north over the Pacific and that 550MB Upper level low will remain a cutoff Low-Pressure system that won’t move very fast. See the 11 Sept 500MB chart.
Fall is definitely approaching at least it won’t really rain until after the weekend!
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
Our very strange weather continues and I think we are glad we don’t live in California, the Midwest, the South, or the East Coast. My impression is that they are really ready for this summer to end. Still, lots of fires in BC so the smoke and haze are going to be with us for a while. This is because as you can see from charts we have a 1031MB high which is not very strong but then again there is really no jet stream to push it around, just an out of season low-pressure system with an attached front that will impact the Pacific NW about next Wednesday or Thursday.
17 Aug Surf Chrt
18 Aug 500MB
18 Aug Surf Chrt
19 Aug Surf Chrt
21 Aug Surf
We also have a weak low-pressure system on the other side of the Cascades which give us a weak onshore flow with a breezy westerly in the Straits late this afternoon and into the evening. This flow will become a southerly through the San Juan Islands and into the southern Strait of Georgia. Unfortunately, it won’t be breezy for the Northern Century, then again, what else is new. The interesting feature is that around midnight tonight, the onshore flow will kick in and start coming south into the Strait of Georgia resulting in a northerly just about the time the first boats should be getting to the top mark. This northerly will continue into Sunday because of higher pressure in BC and lower pressure to the south.
Unfortunately, after about 0200 hours Saturday morning, the onshore flow will ease and the breeze will become very light in the San Juan Islands. The real challenge will be to see if anyone tries to take the shortcut south through San Juan Channel since slack at the south end is at around 0600 hours. Right now I have the SC-50 making it to Turn Rock at 0530 hours which would be cutting it a little close since the wind is going to glass off right around then which will mean waiting out the flood until around 1300 hours. The next wind coming down the Straits of JdF will show up about mid-afternoon on Saturday which depending on the pressure gradient from Forks to Bellingham may be slowed when the ebb starts to roll about 1500 hours. Luckily, when the wind does finally come down the Straits, it will last until about midnight Saturday which should get most folks across the finish line. As always, a very challenging race in a very beautiful part of the world.
For the rest of the Pacific Northwest, it will be pretty much a perfect weekend to own a powerboat. Have a great time, and be safe.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
What can we say except it’s going to look a lot like summer around here for the foreseeable future. Temperatures in the upper 70’s to mid 80’s and not really any extreme winds around even in the Straits. The surface charts show a nice high-pressure off the coast that is not going to move very far or very fast because the jet stream is simply going over the top of it. The only place on the coast that will be breezy is the section from the mid-coast of Oregon south to just north of San Francisco. There will still be a weak onshore flow coming down the Straits that could bring 15-20 knots of westerly this afternoon and Saturday afternoon as well. After that, the high will just sit over us bringing us dry and warm conditions. The perfect time to be out on the boat.
Click to enlarge any image:
June 15 Surface Analysis
June 16 500MB
June 16 Surface Forecast
June 17 Surface Forecast
June 19 500MB
June 19 Surface Forecast
For the folks leaving at noon on Sunday for Ketchikan in the R2AK, this will present some very interesting choices. It’s looking to be light for the start out of Victoria with a flood tide starting around 1430 hrs. This will be perfect for the rowers and the SUP folks and they can go the shortest possible course to get up to Nanaimo. The sailors will probably go up Trincomali Channel and then out Porlier Pass to get into 15-20 knots of NW breeze in the Strait of Georgia. Once you get north of Nanaimo the breeze will back off and stay light at least until Wednesday. Right now it looks like getting through Seymour Narrows and Johnstone Strait will be a challenge because of the lack of wind. We’ll see.
The plan is to update this forecast tomorrow afternoon when the new models are released.
In the meanwhile, enjoy what will be a glorious weekend!
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
Synopsis for the northern and central Washington coastal and inland waters…A cold front will move slowly through the coastal waters this morning. The front will cross the inland waters this afternoon and evening. Moderate onshore flow will continue Saturday then start to weaken late Sunday. High pressure will build over the area and bring weaker gradients Monday and Tuesday.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
Due to technical difficulties there was a big delay in getting this posted. We’re sorting out who’s responsible right now, but speaking as a dinghy guy I’m pretty sure it had something to do with the (damned) instruments. Our apologies.
It is setting up to be a glorious weekend just about anywhere you want to go on the water. As you can see from the surface charts, we’ve got a nice high-pressure system setting up offshore and all it is going to do is get stronger over the next 5-7 days. This is going to provide us with a strong onshore flow which will create gale conditions in the Central and Eastern Straits of Juan de Fuca especially in the afternoon and early evening hours. Currently it’s blowing 35 knots at Race Rocks, 28 at Sheringham, 27 at Hein Bank and 24 at Smith Island. This afternoon and this evening will probably see the strongest breezes over this area. The next strongest breeze will be in the northern part of Admiralty inlet and the Strait of Georgia south of Nanaimo. As always, check the local conditions before you head out. The pressure gradient will ease somewhat over the next three days dropping the peak windspeeds by 5-10 knots per day.
25 May Surf Analysis
26 May 500MB
26 May Surf Frcst
27 May 500MB
27 May Surf Frcst
29 May Surf Frcst
What does this mean for Swiftsure? Should be a great race especially for the big boats that can make it around the mark and get back into the Straits before sunset. This will be true for any of the courses as the breeze will tend to drop after midnight the further out the Straits you are. Then it will be time to start watching the tidal currents.
Tidal Current Race Passage
0905 Slack
1159 Max Flood 3.9 knots
1457 Slack
1825 Max Ebb 3.2 knots
2109 Slack
2346 Max Flood 3.0
0158 Slack
0627 Max Ebb 5.1
0939 Slack
1240 Max Flood 4.5
1544 Slack
1919 Max Ebb 3.5 knots
Luckily, it appears the wind will hold in the central Straits so no reason to do any extreme rock hopping as you fight the tide. With the 0900 start we should be able to make it through the Race before max flood at noon. Once through the Race it will be time to get to the US shore and beat your way out the Straits. For the long course, the breeze will begin to ease around sunset but will stay from the WSW at around 10 knots. The old rule still applies and that is don’t sail below the port tack layline as you approach the mark on the Bank. If you find yourself headed below the layline, tack back on to starboard and get back above the port tack layline. Do the starboard pole set at the mark and then sail back down the center of the Straits until you start to get lifted, usually about ½ way between Neah Bay and Clallam Bay, then gybe to port and sail the short course to Race Passage hopefully riding the flood and getting through before 0200 hrs Sunday morning.
For the Cape Flattery boats, it’s pretty much the same except you may have to take a quick gybe out into the Straits at the mark to get back into the wind. Once back in the wind, gybe back to starboard and work your way down the center of the Straits. If you’re not going to make Race Passage before the big ebb starts, you’ll need to work your way to the Vancouver Island shore to get some tidal relief.
As usual, it should be mandatory life jackets and safety harnesses from the get go. Then monitor the wind reports on the VHF and log the pressure gradient readings at Forks and Bellingham to get a feel for how much wind you’ll have going through the Race. If it’s blowing hard in the Race, set up your approach so you are on port well ahead of where it will be windy. Do your chute change early and get the number three up under the kite to help stabilize things. Talk every maneuver through before you do it and make sure everyone is clipped on.
Above all else, be safe, have fun and have a great weekend.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
I’m not sure where the mainstream doom and gloom forecasters are getting the breezy part of the forecast for tomorrow. It simply isn’t going to happen. The breeze is definitely on for the Straits, it’s already 31 knots from the west at Race Rocks as part of the onshore flow that will continue to develop through today and then ease after midnight. Unfortunately, this weekend will look much like last weekend with the onshore flow coming down the Straits and through the Chehalis Gap creating a convergence zone that will extend roughly from Pt. No Pt. to the San Juan Islands, right over the race course. That’s the bad news. The good news is that we’ll have an ebb to get us out of the starting area and up to the zone. Lunch in Kingston anyone?
Tidal Currents in Admiralty Inlet.
0818 3.32 knots Ebb
1142 Slack
1430 2.37 knots Flood
1724 Slack
2030 2.42 knots Ebb
2336 Slack
Click to enlarge any image:
April 27 Surface Analysis
April 28 500MB Chart
April 28 Surface Forecast Chart
April 29 500MB Chart
April 29 Surface Forecast Chart
April 30 500MB Chart
May 1 Surface Forecast Chart
The deal is that there probably isn’t any good news. No wind or very light air over Admiralty Inlet with the tide turning against us around noon. We are, in fact, paying for the very nice weather we’ve had the last couple of days. Record High temps, no rain, etc etc. It’s all going to change with the temperatures dropping, and rain coming on shore with a weak cold front you can plainly see in the Satellite Pics. It is already showing up on the Doppler from Langley Hill.
The charts show not much gradient over the Pacific Northwest for the next couple of days with nice weather returning by about mid-week.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
While we certainly had enough rain last weekend, get ready for some great weather this coming week. The last Wednesday night race was a bit chilly but that is springtime sailing in the Northwest, it’s only going to get better. Besides, as long as we have wind, who cares? In addition, we certainly didn’t get clobbered with rain the way the north side of Kauai did, getting 28” of rain in 24 hours. The house we used to stay at that was located on the beach at Hanalei Bay at the pier, was destroyed when the Hanalei River went way over its banks. I’m trying to get some pictures but it’s very sad.
So while we will have a weak cold front move over us tonight and bring a little more rain to the area, the post-frontal system will have high pressure build into the region over the weekend. As you can see from the 500MB charts, a thermal low pressure will set up along the Oregon coast Monday and Tuesday as an upper ridge shifts over the Pacific Northwest bringing us some nice and warm weather.
Click to enlarge any image.
April 20 Surface Analysis
April 21 500MB
April 21 Surface Forecast
April 22 Surface Forecast
April 24 500MB
April 24 Surface Forecast
As we say, the best day for breeze in the Northwest is the first day the ridge of high pressure starts to build over our area. That should be tomorrow, however, we will be in an area of strong onshore flow which will mean a strong westerly in the Straits as well as a strong flow in through the Chehalis Gap. Those winds have to meet somewhere and that will be in the Central Sound at least for tomorrow morning. By around midday, the northerly should move down the Sound and we should have 8-10 knots of northerly building slightly as the afternoon wears on.
Sunday should be even better with 10-15 knots of northerly in the morning and then building into the 18-20 knot range by late afternoon. We should be able to get plenty of races in this weekend with lots of tired sailors showing up for work on Monday.
There will be tides but not all that bad and depending on how much clearing we have Saturday morning, the start of the flood should bring the stronger, steadier northerly down with it.
Tidal Currents at West Point.
0900 Slack
1030 Ebb .35 knots
1224 Slack
1900 Flood 1.12 knots
Sunday
1012 Slack
1130 Ebb .21 knots
1318 Slack
1954 Flood 1.03 knots
It’s worthwhile to look at the graph of tidal current velocities to explain the gap (≈6 hours, instead of the usual 3) between the midday slack and max flood.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
The irrepressible Bruce not only gave the South Straits racers their own forecast, he’s clueing the rest of us in as well.
For an Easter weekend, not all bad. The Straits guys and gals got off this morning in light conditions however the wind is building as they head towards the Ballenas mark. Currently, they have about 15 from the west at Halibut Bank. Unfortunately, it will probably drop from here on.
Click to enlarge images.
March 30 Surface Analysis
March 31 500MB
March 31 Surface Forecast Chart
April 1 Surface Forecast Chart
April 3 Surface Forecast Chart
March 30 Satellite Image
The current chart shows a cold front that is moving to the SE across the area today. Post frontal activity will create a brief period of onshore flow today which will create small craft warnings in the Straits of Juan de Fuca late this afternoon and into the evening. Expect a light northerly late tonight or early Saturday due to that a 1044MB High that is situated over eastern BC and Alberta. This will dissipate and the flow will become onshore again Saturday afternoon with small craft warnings again being posted for the Straits and the northern part of Admiralty Inlet. You can expect the onshore flow to strengthen Sunday before weakening on Monday.
The satellite picture shows some clouds but not much in the way of rain so it really looks like a pretty nice weekend. So get out and get the boat ready for some nice springtime sailing. Also, don’t forget about the Sloop Tavern Blakely Rock Benefit Race next weekend. Great event for a great cause and we’ll have an in-depth forecast for you next Friday.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
We are clearly transitioning into fall as evidenced by the leaves on the trees turning and the evening temps getting decidedly cooler. While it is the last weekend in September we still have two more months of hurricane season and Hurricane Rosa is now a Cat 4 storm aiming to come ashore in the northern part of Baja late Monday or early Tuesday. It won’t be a Cat 4 or even a hurricane when it does arrive however it will bring some wind and plenty of rain.
