The forecast is pretty simple for this holiday weekend, it’s going to be great. The only problem may be that the very hot weather we had earlier this week has created a real tinderbox in the PacNW. Already fires are kicking off in BC and it’s only a matter of time before they get going around here. Time to put those fireworks away.
The Pacific High continues to be weak however there are signs that it may be stabilizing and beginning to take a more normal shape and position. If you’re getting ready for TransPac the projected shape and position of the Pac High on July 6th should catch your eye. It’s getting stronger but well to the west and a further south than what we would call “normal”.
July 2 500 MB
July 2 Surface Analysis
July 3 Surface Forecast
July 4 500 MB
July 4 Surface Forecast
July 5 Surface Forecast
July 6 500 MB
July 6 Surface Forecast
For the PacNW the high will keep our conditions warm and dry with some breeze in the Straits on Saturday and late Sunday. This morning near dawn we had some fog in the eastern and central Straits however it burned off very quickly. Winds over the rest of the Salish Sea will remain light with some thermal northerlies developing in the afternoon over the central Sound.
It is also interesting to note the 500MB (upper air) charts as the jet stream is now well to the north of us with the addition of an upper level low off of our coast. We’ll see how long that stays in that position as it will now help keep the smoke from the fires in BC from coming down into the Sound.
Enjoy your holiday weekend, discourage fireworks, and stay safe.
When George Yioulos set his teeth into the Pacific Northwest one-design scene in 2005 with West Coast Sailing, it quickly became apparent he “got it.” In the small-boat corner of the marine business world that many had abandoned, he saw opportunity. He knew what sailors wanted even more than simply saving money. They wanted to work people who cared about the sport. They responded, wanting to support a company that supported them. George instituted an uncompromising policy of serving sailors and surrounded himself with people who saw the light. West Coast Sailing jumped in with support at the local level – the Seattle Laser Fleet being just one. They sponsored PNW sailors as they competed out of the area and internationally. They carefully chose boats that would fit in all areas of the spectrum from high performance to beginner.
So it’s with great pleasure I can report that they’ve stepped into the void left by pandemic casualties. Their new rigging services complement a much bigger and broader inventory. When Annapolis Performance Sailing (APS) had to shut its doors, West Coast Sailing stepped in acquiring inventory and adding services. So, if you relied on APS for some parts (as I did), you can now look to West Coast Sailing.
Bill at work
Tapered sheets
Jake in an ILCA (FKA Laser) )
Phil and Chris all smiles
Jared
Lots of line, among other things
The Warehouse
The example of West Coast Sailing’s service that is closest to my heart is how WCS introduced the RS Aero while supporting the Laser. It was the right business move as the fleet took hold in Seattle and internationally. As the International Laser Class Association and Laser Performance threw stones at each other in the press and the courts, and even as Aeros started to sell, WCS did not abandon Laser sailors. They still found parts for us when nobody else could, and still supported the class.
Predictably, as the RS Aero class grew in Seattle, there were some pains. Boat availability, parts changes and all the other associated things that go with a new class. Through it all, WCS exerted the effort to make the class a success. And the Laser class, aka the ILCA Dinghy, remains active and supported, especially for the burgeoning youth scene. These days, most of the time at large regattas there are 4.7 rigs for smaller sailors, Radials and Standard Rigs that between them cover sailors from about 100 or so pounds to over 200.
I am happy to see WCS become one of the nation’s go-to companies for sailing parts and gear. And I’m pleased to count them as one of sailish.com’s main sponsors.
Following West Coast Sailing’s report on current developments:
From West Coast Sailing
Supporting one design sailors with solutions to help them make the most of their time on the water is a core part of our business and has been since day one. These days there are only a few businesses like ours that remain focused on this mission. In 2019, a long standing and well known east coast store shuttered its sailing parts business, and in 2020 closed for good. In our industry, it is sad to see a well respected competitor go, and we understood there would be a huge hole in the market with many sailors looking for a new source for products. In the height of the pandemic, we were approached with the opportunity to acquire the designs, knowledge, and tools to carry on the legacy of their rigging department, which had long been known as the go to place for standing and running rigging for nearly two dozen one design dinghy and keelboat classes, and a great resource for custom rigging needs. Despite the uncertainty, making this acquisition was an easy choice for West Coast Sailing and 100% in line with our core mission.
This winter, our team built out a full rigging bench, worked with our vendors (Marlow, NewEngland Ropes, Samson, Alpha Ropes, Harken, Wichard, etc) to increase our stock of line and hardware, and hired a full time rigger. We now have proven specs and the capability to build running and standing rigging for a variety of boats – Laser/ILCA, Sunfish, Opti, Thistle, Flying Scot, Lightning, J/22, J/24, J/70, J/80, Melges 24, etc – and the in-house tools to offer and build custom halyards, sheets, control lines, and other rigging for any sailboat up to 35 feet. In short, if you can dream it, we can build it for you! This new business unit has allowed us to expand our offering of products and solutions for sailors in classes we have supported for many years, and is also opening doors to supporting sailors in other dinghy and keelboat classes. We are also developing new rigging solutions for other classes such as the RS Aero, Tasar, and Hobie 16, as well as standing rigging and lifelines.
West Coast Sailing is North America’s leading source for small sailboats, sailboat parts, and sailing apparel, founded in June 2005 with the vision to be the leading resource for products, services, and information for the sailing industry. In the past 15 years we’ve worked with tens of thousands of sailors around the world and remain committed as ever to supporting a passion for sailing among those who love being on the water.
We remain fully independent and represent the very best sailing brands and builders, sponsor events, and serve all aspects of the sailing community. We have a team of 15 dedicated and passionate sailors who work hard day in and day out to answer your questions, help you find the right replacement part or new sailboat, manage our ever growing product catalog, and fulfill your orders. We sell over 600 sailboats and kayaks a year and fulfill our customer’s needs by shipping boats and product around the world from our office and warehouse in Portland, shipping hundreds of packages each week. We continue to invest in our business and continue to invest in the sailing community that got us here, all with the same mission guiding and motivating us.
Despite the uncertainty of the Covid-19 Pandemic that impacted everyone in so many ways, West Coast Sailing managed to remain open and operational to support the countless sailors looking to enjoy time on the water. It was a season of highs and lows, as demand for sailing products exceeded our ability to fulfill them at the level we expected. In addition to taking on the new rig shop business unit, this off season we invested in and deployed a brand new back office ERP system for running all aspects of our business. This system is linked directly to our industry-leading e-commerce site and will allow us to be more accurate with inventory availability, decrease the time it takes to launch new products, and improve the transparency of order statuses and tracking information. We take our commitment to offering the best service/support you’ll find anywhere seriously!
Whether you have shopped with us for years or looking for your new go to sailing store, hardcore dinghy racer or casual cruiser, up and coming junior sailor or parent of one, scholastic sailor, coach, program director, supporter, or simply someone who loves being on the water, we look forward to the opportunity to earn your business and your trust. We’re committed to being here for the long term and a vital part of the community and sport we all love.
Beyond our role as a retail shop in the sailing industry, West Coast Sailing is an avid supporter of the sailing community and we make it a priority to give back as much as possible. It is written in our vision and mission statement and has been since day one. We sponsor fleets, class districts, regattas (large and small), and offer special pricing to scholastic sailors and those involved with coaching/managing sailing programs. Running a small business is challenging and we don’t have an infinite budget, but we make a conscious effort to say yes to as many requests as possible. We’re proud to be part of a community of sailors, fleets, clubs, programs, and retailers that help enable access to sailing and enjoyment on the water.
Our new rig shop / rigging department is a further extension of this support. By offering proven solutions that make it easier to rig and sail your boat, we hope that sailors can spend less time worrying and more time sailing, be it racing, cruising, or just casually sailing with friends. By offering more solutions for more classes, we hope to build new relationships with sailors in classes we have not supported previously. With the decline in the number of retail shops and businesses dedicated to supporting sailors, we remain committed to supporting the community that in turn supports us. It is a two way street.
Our website is built on a state of the art ecommerce platform and the best resource for the wide range of products, services, and information we offer. We work hard to make products easy to find, with great photos and descriptions, so you can be confident in what you are buying. Our rig shop products are no exception. Each class we support in a one design capacity has a unique category page on our site (example, J/24), and the various line and rigging products we offer can be found there. We also have a dedicated rigging page that provides an overview of our capabilities, and a master category page with all products produced by our rigging department. One design rig shop items can be ordered just like any other product on our site – select the desired color (where available) and add to cart. These products are built to order and have a turn around time of 4-7 days. Our new collection of reference photos are also available to demonstrate common ways the various boats are rigged. If you have a custom rigging need or would like to order a modified version of an existing rigging product, sailors can contact our team via email and our rigger will assist you with options and send a quote for your approval.
We hope to add the ability to order custom rigging to our website later this year, further reducing the time it takes to order and receive the rigging you need. It is a work in progress to fully integrate this new business unit and we continue to make improvements every day!
So much for the old adage that summer doesn’t start in Seattle until the 5 of July. If however, you like heat, the next two weeks are for you with this coming Monday possibly being the highest temperature ever recorded in Seattle since records were kept. Some models are showing the high on Monday being 107°F, with Portland baking at 114°F on Sunday and 113°F on Monday. The high temp for Seattle isn’t predicted to be below 80°F until the 9th of July. Darn, if only I had ordered AC last winter.
June 25 500 MB
June 25 Surface Analysis
June 26 Surface Forecast
June 27 500 MB
June 27 Surface Forecast
June 28 Surface Forecast
June 29 500 MB
June 29 Surface Forecast
Today’s surface analysis chart, satellite pic, and tomorrow’s surface forecast chart show the reason for this unusual (or maybe the new norm) weather. We have a very elongated and relatively weak high-pressure system off the coast with a weak high in northern BC and two highs over central Oregon and central California. The weak (1013MB) low-pressure off of our coast isn’t moving and isn’t strong enough to push the high around. In combination with the fact that we are just a week past the Solstice, the sun is spending a lot of time heating the ground and with a lot of green foliage around to absorb this energy the air is just going to get warmer and thermal throughs will develop inland creating an offshore breeze Saturday through Monday. The offshore breeze combined with downslope compressional heating is what will create the record highs Sunday and Monday. Note also the surface forecast chart for the 26th and the 27th which show no less than six thermal low troughs over the West Coast and one that has been pushed offshore. It is going to be HOT!
As we have mentioned previously, as long as the jet stream stays south, our temperatures will remain cool. Now that the jet stream is now coming ashore near Yakutat, AK and an upper-level high-pressure system is sitting over us, temps will remain warm and these systems won’t move very much.
This will be pretty good weather for boating especially if you are a powerboater. Winds will be light except in the Eastern Straits and Central Sound on Saturday afternoon when we’ll have a westerly in the Straits and a northwesterly in the Sound. Since this is a thermally generated breeze, it will ease as the sun goes down. Sunday, the breeze will stay light in the Straits while another thermal breeze develops in the Central Sound which will bring Mother Natures’ air condioning into the areas next to the water. Areas away from the water will remain hot.
Break out the sunblock early and don’t forget that while the air is very hot, the Sound is still very cool and hypothermia can still be a killer.
Be safe and have a great weekend.
Ed. note: Our intrepid meteorologist did this report in challenging circumstances on the road. Thanks, Bruce!
Our condolences go out to family, friends and crew mates of Greg Mueller, who died yesterday while racing in Race Week Anacortes. Mueller was wearing a PFD aboard With Grace when he fell overboard. He could not be revived and was pronounced dead at a local emergency room.
Race Director Schelleen Rathkopf emailed this message out to competitors last night:
“Dear competitors, I am sorry to share the news that we lost a teammate today. Greg Mueller on the crew of With Grace fell overboard. His feet were tangled in some lines which exacerbated the situation. Despite the efforts of many, Greg didn’t recover. Please spend some extra time with your crews tomorrow refreshing your MOB protocols. My condolences to the With Grace skipper and crew, and to Greg’s family. – Schelleen Rathkopf”
We will follow up on this sad event to see if there are any lessons to be learned.
Tragedy struck yesterday when Greg Mueller died after falling overboard from With Grace. Our condolences to his family, friends and shipmates. We were unaware of this for the original post. .
Don’t look now, racers, but there’s a week of Northwest Racing again, and it’s a success. After Covid sunk Schelleen Rathkopf’s plan to move Race Week from Oak Harbor to Point Roberts, there were a lot of question marks. She’s found a home for the event in Anacortes, and with a fleet of around 70 boats (including 4 one design classes) Race Week has a glowing present and a bright future.
Rathkopf reports: “By day 2, 6 races each across 11 fleets. Blowing 12-15 every day. Tides combined with new venue keeping racers on their toes. People are super happy and have described Anacortes and the racing area as the perfect place for Race Week.”
The Pacific NW Offshore (formerly Oregon Offshore) got off to a nice start yesterday and had a fairly speedy run up the coast ahead of the front that is passing over the area today. Unfortunately, as the fleet turned the corner at Neah Bay and started towards Port Angeles, the breeze quit. One boat, Haven, in the Cruising Class used their four-hour powering allowance to move right up to the leader, Rage who is now 22 miles from the finish. I included the track which shows Rage spent a fair amount of time going nowhere. The outlook for more wind isn’t good even though at Diamond Point on Discovery Bay we now have 30-knots of SE. While Port Angeles Coast Guard Station is showing NNW at 3, the Ediz Eddy is definitely in play. There is just not going to be much wind in the Central Strait until midday tomorrow. There will be patches of breeze maybe to 10 knots but those will come and go.
Certainly can’t complain about the rain today, we need it, don’t worry, tomorrow is going to great with some rain returning on Sunday. So just how bad is the drought in the west? I enclose this comparison for your edification.
Tomorrow will be the best day of the weekend with lots of attempted sailing going on. In Canada (not yet open to Americans) they were going to have the Round Bowen Island Race however that has been canceled. In the Central Sound, we’ll have the WSSA Blake Island Race, Leukemia Cup Regatta, and the Summer Vashon. All of these will be light air affairs.
In the North Sound, we’ll have Mad Dash out of Edmonds which of all the events this weekend has the best chance of having some breeze.
Today’s Surface Analysis and Satellite Pic show why we are going to have such a light air weekend, there simply isn’t much of a pressure gradient. That low-pressure system offshore with its’ attached frontal system is slowly weakening and not moving very far or very fast. The Jet stream is still to the south of us and will only move slightly to the north over the next couple of days. This will keep temps on the cool side bring us sporadic showers through the upcoming week. As I said, I’m fine with that. Anything to keep the fire danger down.
Todays 500MB Analysis has an interesting upper-level cut-off low in the western Pacific which we should watch
The Chart for tomorrow shows an increasing gap in the pressure gradient, with a weak high-pressure system over Central Washington.
The Surface Chart for Sunday shows a weak warm front moving over the Sound with the offshore low still not moving very much, if at all. The 500Mb Chart confirms why.
The Surface Chart for Monday still has the front from Sunday still over the area and the offshore low weakening to 1004Mb and remaining stationery.
The 500Mb Chart for the 15th of June shows the jet stream taking quite a wild meander after it leaves our area.
Have a great weekend and congrats to all participants in the WA360 Race which started on Monday. The first boats finished yesterday with monhulls beating multihulls and while the human-powered boats led all the way to Bellingham they finally ran out of gas and the sailboats caught up very quickly when there was finally some wind. Exciting finish to watch yesterday.
If there is anything more Northwest than the R2AK movement, I’d like to see it. In the years since that race’s inception, we’ve seen everything from world class sailors to casual rowers make the trip. And with Covid not yet in our wake, and those very careful Canadians shutting down the border, those inventive and sometimes questionable minds at the Northwest Maritime Center behind this movement came up with an alternate plan. Deceptively devious, it sends sailors, rowers and paddlers from Port Townsend all the way to Olympia Shoal, up to Point Roberts and back to PT. The course:
The starting area, Port Townsend
Start just off the Northwest Maritime Center dock in Port Townsend Bay
ROUND Olympia shoal in Budd Inlet
PASS WITHIN 1 NM of Goat Island in Skagit Bay
ROUND Bellingham outfall buoy Fl Y 10s priv
ROUND Point Roberts Buoy R “4” 4s BELL
Finish by landing on the dock at the Northwest Maritime Center
Karl Kruger and Molly Howe on the (Melges24!) wires.
It all started this morning at 6 am. Today’s predominantly light conditions allowed some of the paddlers and rowers to jump out to leads, followed by some of the multihulls. My Swiftsure Yachts colleague Molly Howe’s Mustang Survival Team Ocean Watch, a Melges 24, has been competing with the Merit 28 Fressure for first among the monohulls and getting pressure from behind from High Seas Drifter, an Olson 30.
Another group we’ll be watching is the Dash 34 Apocalypse Later Never Get off the Boat. Former mates and competitors of mine who are having way too much fun right now.
As I go to sleep, the kayak Bend Racing is way in front just entering Budd Inlet, followed by a pedal-driven catamaran The Boogie Barge in second and the F28R trimaran Ruf Duck (sail!!) in third. Things have a way of changing, and I’ll check in when I wake up.
All the best videos are going to the WA360 Facebook page and their web site. And of course there’s the tracker. But check these links out for a taste of the conditions.
Lots of sailboat racing this weekend as well as this coming week. SYC will run the last race of its’ Tri-Island Series on Saturday with numerous other races around the Salish Sea. For the most part, racers will have breeze on Saturday as a system moves through bringing a strong onshore flow down the Straits with the potential for gale warnings in the eastern Straits late Saturday afternoon.
June 6 500 MB
June 5 Surface Forecast
June 4 Surface Analysis
June 4 500 MB
June 8 Surface Forecast
June 8 500 MB
June 7 Surface Forecast
June 6 Surface Forecast
The surface analysis chart and the sat pic for today show the front as it’s approaching the coast with some pre-frontal showers already in the Straits. The low-pressure system associated with the front is weak and will quickly move to the east, to be followed by yet another weaker system on Sunday. The good news is that the Pacific High is slowly moving into a more normal position. This won’t help the WA 360 Race which starts on Monday and that will be a long, light air affair. The better outlook is for the Pacific NW Offshore Race which starts on Thursday. With the Pacific High continuing to strengthen that race could have 12-18 knots of NW breeze for the start with the breeze easing and backing by the afternoon. We will have a special pre-race forecast up on Wednesday late afternoon.
For the Blake Island Racers, this weather will present a mixed bag of conditions with a nice southwesterly to start however the onshore flow coming down the Straits will bring a northerly to the course around mid-day. There will be some light air in the transition however it won’t last long. There also will not be a lot of tidal current to worry about.
Tidal Currents at West Point
0636 Slack
1206 Max Flood .61 knots
1430 Slack
1548 Max Ebb .2 knots
1854 Slack
Even with shifting conditions, it will still be a quick race for the big boats which will have a big advantage being the first start. Today’s model has Zvi around the course in just over three hours finishing about 10 minutes after noon. The J-105’s will be around the course in five hours finishing just after 1400 hours.
The Seventy48 Race starts tonight and should have mostly downwind conditions at least until Admiralty Inlet.
If you’re like me, you’ve lost track of which adventure races are coming up. This, as far as I know, is the list. If you’ve got an event you want sailish readers to hear about, adventurous or not, let me know.
Today: Northwest Maritime’sSeventy48, a human powered non-sailing event from Tacoma to Port Townsend. The start is today at 7pm, giving paddlers a chance to go all night and then some. They have 48 hours to go 70 miles, including SUPs.
Tomorrow: Seattle Yacht Club’s Blake Island Race. NOR here.
June 7: WA360. The Northwest Maritime’s world renowned R2AK is another Covid victim for this year, but here’s a good alternative. One difference between this event and the R2AK is that engines are allowed onboard, though if they’re used the boat will not be scored. I imagine that’s a concession to safety in the heavily trafficked Puget Sound. Start and finish in Port Townsend
June 10: Pacific NW Offshore Race: You’ll be forgiven if you think of this as the Oregon Offshore. Because of Covid restrictions, there is no Canada, but there is a start at Ilwaco and a finish in Port Angeles, so the course remains largely the same. Bruce Hedrick will be providing a weather outlook for the racers, which we’ll print here on sailish.com
June 19: Salish 200. Back for the second annual tour of the Sound. Actually, there are three races, the Puget Sound 100, San Juan 100 and Salish 200. Here’s the page with more details.
There will be trackers and/or AIS to follow on each of these, for those of us stuck mowing lawns or sitting in offices. We have embedded sailors on each of these events, even if they don’t know they are, so we hope to have some first-hand reports. Thanks to all the clubs and organizations that are making this happen despite the Covid limitations. If racers or organizers have anything to add, please send thoughts and pictures to me.
We had another day of wild weather yesterday with some heavy rain in places. Even with that, we are still about .75 inches behind for the month and about .5 inches behind for the year. That system has moved east and now we are looking at what should be a very nice holiday weekend.
The overall weather pattern hasn’t changed much with a weak high-pressure system offshore and lower pressure on the other side of the Cascades. As you can see from the surface Charts high pressure will build over the Salish Sea and bring us what could be the highest temps this year by mid-week. The Pacific High is still not quite ready to start behaving normally however it looks like by next weekend we may see it start to set up further north and further to the west which could bring nice conditions for the Pacific NW Offshore Race starting on June 10th going from Ilwaco to Port Angeles.
May 28 500 MB
May 28 Surface Analysis
May 29 Surface Forecast
May 30 500 MB
May 31 Surface Forecast
Not much will change over the weekend with the strongest winds in the Straits happening today and then as the gradient eases over the weekend the wind will ease in the Straits to 5-12 knots from the west. Saturday morning will see a drainage easterly in the east and central Straits of 5 knots or less until late afternoon when the westerly would fill back down the Straits.
So what would have happened on Swiftsure? It would have been light but the big problem would have been the tidal currents in Race Passage. Plenty of current to get us started with 6.5 knots of max ebb at 0900 hrs Saturday morning but the real problem would have been from about 2200 hours Saturday night until 1340 Sunday afternoon where there would have been a continuous ebb tide with 6.0 knots of max ebb at 0950 Sunday morning. Let’s see, what could possibly go wrong with light air and lots of anti-water?
One of the models I ran had the J/35 on the Cape Flattery Race finishing at 1730 hours Monday afternoon. Probably not a bad year to have missed the Race!
Generally speaking, winds will be light over the area but always check the forecast and conditions especially in the Straits if that’s where your cruising is taking you.
Have a great weekend and use that sunblock even when it’s cloudy!
