We had another day of wild weather yesterday with some heavy rain in places. Even with that, we are still about .75 inches behind for the month and about .5 inches behind for the year. That system has moved east and now we are looking at what should be a very nice holiday weekend.
The overall weather pattern hasn’t changed much with a weak high-pressure system offshore and lower pressure on the other side of the Cascades. As you can see from the surface Charts high pressure will build over the Salish Sea and bring us what could be the highest temps this year by mid-week. The Pacific High is still not quite ready to start behaving normally however it looks like by next weekend we may see it start to set up further north and further to the west which could bring nice conditions for the Pacific NW Offshore Race starting on June 10th going from Ilwaco to Port Angeles.
May 28 500 MB 
May 28 Surface Analysis 
May 29 Surface Forecast 
May 30 500 MB 
May 31 Surface Forecast
Not much will change over the weekend with the strongest winds in the Straits happening today and then as the gradient eases over the weekend the wind will ease in the Straits to 5-12 knots from the west. Saturday morning will see a drainage easterly in the east and central Straits of 5 knots or less until late afternoon when the westerly would fill back down the Straits.
So what would have happened on Swiftsure? It would have been light but the big problem would have been the tidal currents in Race Passage. Plenty of current to get us started with 6.5 knots of max ebb at 0900 hrs Saturday morning but the real problem would have been from about 2200 hours Saturday night until 1340 Sunday afternoon where there would have been a continuous ebb tide with 6.0 knots of max ebb at 0950 Sunday morning. Let’s see, what could possibly go wrong with light air and lots of anti-water?
One of the models I ran had the J/35 on the Cape Flattery Race finishing at 1730 hours Monday afternoon. Probably not a bad year to have missed the Race!
Generally speaking, winds will be light over the area but always check the forecast and conditions especially in the Straits if that’s where your cruising is taking you.
Have a great weekend and use that sunblock even when it’s cloudy!
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)