Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 28, 29, 30, and 31 Oct. STYC Race Your House and Great Pumpkin Race

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This week saw our first major wind event of the start of our third in a row La Niña fall/winter event. Not surprisingly, in just over a week our yearly rainfall total, with a very dry summer and a partial fall, is almost exactly on the average. Year to date we are at 26.68”, with our yearly average of 26.63”. Amazing how this is working out. We should also remember that November is traditionally our wettest month and when we have a La Niña event it means the weather will be cooler and wetter than normal.

For this weekend we will be looking at a relatively nice day on Saturday with cloudy conditions but very little rain. Sunday will see the approach of another frontal system so slightly more wind and definitely some rain. Temperatures will remain just slightly above average so all in all it will be a pretty nice weekend to be on the water in the central Sound.

October 28 500MB
October 28 Surface Analysis
October 29 Surface Forecast
October 30 500MB
October 30 Surface Forecast
October 31 Surface Forecast
November 1 500MB
November 1 Surface Forecast

For Victoria, West Van, and Bellingham expect a breezy 15 to 25 knots from south southeast while the south Sound from Tacoma south will experience light conditions on Saturday but build to 15-20 knots of south to southeast wind on Sunday.

Today’s surface analysis chart and sat pic show the front that moved through early this morning and the clearing we are experiencing now. There is a weak high-pressure system (1022mb) off the southern California coast with our weak Pacific High (1029mb) at 40N 158W. The Surface Chart for tomorrow shows an easing of the gradient over the central Sound with a very impressive low (963mb, lowest of the season) moving across the Gulf of Alaska with a strong cold front that will come through the area Sunday night and into Monday.

The other charts of interest today are the upper air/500mb charts as they show a strong zonal flow today transitioning to a more seasonal meridional flow by 1 Nov. This will move the jet stream well to the south of us coming ashore in the Bay area. This will bring cooler temps to the area by mid-week.

For the STYC Race Your House folks expect 12-18 knots of southerly for the start and holding at that velocity and direction until about 1500 hours when the breeze will ease to 8-12 knots and clock slightly to the SSW. Tides won’t be much of an issue however with the persistent south wind and the rainfall we’ve had, expect an ebb current along the Shilshole breakwater and in the vicinity of West Point.

Enjoy the weekend!   

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 21,22,23, and 24 Oct, WVYC Pumpkin Bowl Regatta!

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Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 21,22,23, and 24 Oct, WVYC Pumpkin Bowl Regatta!

For dinghy sailors in the Pacific Northwest, The WVYC Pumpkin Bowl Regatta is a very big deal with 100+ Opti’s out last weekend and 104 ILCA & doublehanded boats out this weekend. Unfortunately, it is the fall and we are finally transitioning from our dry and smokey summer to our more normal cooler and wetter conditions. In these transitional periods, the wind can be a bit frustrating as the frontal systems are still being degraded as they come onshore. Conditions offshore this weekend for the west side of Vancouver Island and the West Coast of Washington will be cranking on Saturday with 25 to 30-knots of Northwesterly breeze. Sunday will see the breeze transition from NE to SE as another stronger frontal system approaches the coast.

October 21 500MB
October 21 Surface Analysis
October 22 Surface Forecast
October 23 500 MB
October 23 Surface Forecast
October 24 Surface Forecast
October 25 500MB
October 25 Surface Forecast

For the race area off of WVYC, Howe Sound, and Passage Island this will mean the following: From 0800 until about 1300 hrs expect winds to be light and variable. At around 1300-1400hrs expect a nice 5-10 knots of WNW breeze to be coming down the Strait of Georgia and into the Race Area. This will hold until about 1800 hrs when the breeze will begin to ease.

For Sunday from 0800 until about 1100 expect a southerly breeze of 4-6 knots. From 1100 until about 1500hrs the breeze will back to the SSE and build slightly to 5-10 knots. From 1500hrs to 1800hrs the breeze will back to the SE and build into the 8-12 knot range.

Today’s surface analysis chart shows the weak (1007mb) low-pressure system offshore with its attached frontal systems. This will move through the area today with a building high-pressure system offshore. Saturday the pressure gradient will ease over the Salish Sea with a weak trough of low-pressure running from Eastern Washington to Vancouver Island.

The Sunday surface forecast chart (48hr) shows the next stronger low-pressure system moving from the Gulf of Alaska to SE Alaska with a frontal system that will bring more wind and more rain by midday Monday and into Tuesday.

For boaters in the Puget Sound Basin on Saturday, you will have a nice northerly in the morning but easing to light and variable by mid-afternoon.

Sunday will be a much better day for sailing with a consistent 5-12 knots of southerly the entire day.

Enjoy the weekend! 

Bruce’s Briefs Special Edition: Smoke Update, When Will it Leave?

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Bruce’s Briefs Special Edition: Smoke Update, When Will it Leave?
Gasworks Park in Seattle and the other side of Lake Union are usually clear from the Swiftsure Yachts offices.

Right now at the Meadow Point Marine Weather Station in West Seattle, the Air Quality reading is 272, YUK! You can’t even see down the hill.  

Weather reporting stations around the area are showing some promising signs with a light westerly in the Straits and stronger westerlies east of the Cascades. We are however still showing an easterly flow on the west side of the Cascades into the Puget Sound Basin and that will be the problem as it will keep the smoke entrenched in the basin.  

We have a weak high-pressure system off the coast and a weak cold front just to the north of us. However, off of the north end of Vancouver Island, we already have 25 to 30-knot northwesterlies and that will slowly work its way down to us. We expect to have a nice 15 to 20-knot westerly down the Straits to Whidbey Island by 2100hrs this evening. While the onshore is showing in the Straits and in the Cascade Passes it will remain weak in the Puget Sound Basin at least until about mid-day tomorrow when we will get our first significant rain.  This will help to finally scrub the air and send the smoke back to Eastern Washington.   

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 14, 15, 16, 17, and 18 October

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Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 14, 15, 16, 17, and 18 October

It may be boring but it is still interesting. So we will certainly set a new record for the greatest number of days with a high temp of 70°F or greater in Oct. Sunday we may even hit 80°! Yikes.

It looks like the Sloop Tavern YC will have a nice turnout for the Fall Regatta tomorrow and there may even be a nice northerly. The only problem will be that it will be smokey and hazy with poor air quality. Wind will start light from the NNE and depending on how clear it is and how much heating occurs in the Central Sound, there may be a slightly stronger northwesterly in the afternoon.

October 14 500MB
October 14 Surface Analysis
October 15 Surface Forecast
October 16 500 MB
October 16 Surface Forecast
October 17 Surface Forecast
October 18 500 MB
October 18 Surface Forecast

We have the same situation as the last two weeks with a weak high-pressure system offshore, a weak thermal trough along the coast, and a weak high pressure in Eastern Washington. This creates an offshore flow which is what is bringing the smoke from the Bolt Creek fire into the Sound. Take a look at the Sat Pic for today and you will see that very clearly. The surface forecast chart for tomorrow and Sunday show little change in the pressure gradient other than it will continue to ease which will bring the high temperatures for Sunday.

The surface forecast chart for Sunday and Monday do show a weak frontal system approaching the coast however that will degrade as it gets closer. The other interesting feature is a developing low-pressure system at 40N 175W which will strengthen to 960mb and rapidly intensify on the 17th and 18th producing hurricane-force breeze as it moves into the Gulf of Alaska. The jet stream and the weak high off our coast will combine to keep that system away from us. It does however have quite an attached cold front which could bring our first rain into the area on or about the 21st or 22nd of October. We will see. We know summer had to end sometime!

Have a great Weekend!

My Friend Brad

Kurt Hoehne Community 2 Comments
Brad Baker

My friend Brad Baker died on September 30 after a remarkable fight with brain cancer. He was diagnosed nearly four years ago with a very aggressive glioblastoma.

The basics are that Brad died far too young at age 58, and is survived by his wife P.J. and sons Bryce and Austin. He co-founded Swiftsure Yachts and sent many sailors off in their perfect boats for their life-changing adventures. As a navigator, Brad won the Vic-Maui race multiple times, both on elapsed and corrected finishes. More than one skipper owe their trophies to Brad.

In addition to being my friend, Brad taught me a lot.

It was Brad who showed me someone can be a yacht broker, enjoy it and have some success. As a journalist, sailor and boat buyer, I viewed brokers skeptically and would say so. Brad took it all in stride, not taking it personally. That’s because he was a good broker in every sense of the word, caring for his customers and very up-front with all the elements of boat buying and selling.

As a racing sailor, I watched closely as he assembled winning teams. He knew that everybody on board was there to enjoy themselves, not just to make the boat faster. While as intense as anybody I’ve raced with, he always respected that bigger picture. He understood and played to everybody’s strengths, including the owners’.

But perhaps the most meaningful of Brad’s lessons was to seize the big moments when they came. In his case, it was to cruise with his family. When he saw the opportunity to long distance cruise with P.J., Bryce and Austin, he moved on it. At a time when staying home managing a business and making money was certainly an option (and one that would prevail for many) he saw the chance to give his family the invaluable long-term cruise. The Bakers crossed oceans, anchored in picturesque coves and met new and wonderful people in every port.

Brad at the computer

How valuable that time turned out to be.

Even after his diagnosis and treatments, Brad seized opportunities to sail, race and even deliver boats. He could have wallowed, but instead lived his life as best as possible right up until the end.

We all have lost a good shipmate. My heart aches for P.J., Bryce and Austin.

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 7, 8, 9, and 10 Oct. CYC PSSC Big Boats

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Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 7, 8, 9, and 10 Oct. CYC PSSC Big Boats

You could almost cut and paste last week’s Brief for this weekend. We still have a trough of low-pressure running down the east side of Vancouver Island and then down the west side of the Sound and Hood Canal. This gives us high pressure on the east side of the Cascades as well as high pressure offshore. This gives us a weak offshore gradient which is still bringing the smoke from the Bolt Creek fire into the Salish Sea and very poor air quality. You can clearly see the smoke from Bolt Creek in today’s Sat Pic.  Currently, at the Meadow Point Marine Weather Station in West Seattle, the reading is 126 and solidly in the red. At least we can finally sort of see across the Sound even with a thick band of haze right on the water.

October 7 500MB
October 7 Surface Forecast
October 8 Surface Forecast
October 9 500 MB
October 9 Surface Forecast
October 11 500MB
October 11 Surface Forecast

Today’s surface analysis chart shows the systems described above and then in the Central Pacific we have three relatively weak low-pressure systems with the strongest one being 999mb at about 40N and 155W and going nowhere fast. The reason for this is that the jet stream is still well north and this low is associated with an upper-level cutoff low this is going to stay in the same place for the next couple of days. This will keep our weather pretty much the same for the entire weekend. The next possible change in our weather could happen late Monday or early Tuesday when a weak front will move over the area. Regardless, there won’t be much, if any, rainfall associated with this system.

As you look at the surface forecast charts there isn’t much pressure gradient over the area so you might expect winds to be light and variable. The good news is there will be a light northerly that will build over the day to maybe 10-12 knots. Sunday, not so much.

Much like last weekend, tidal currents won’t be much of a factor.

West Point Currents

0824      Slack

1324      Max Fld   .96knts

1612      Slack

1742      Max Ebb   .39knts

Sunday

1012      Slack

1412      Max Fld   .95knts

1700      Slack

Use plenty of sunblock, and enjoy the weekend. 

Fury, The Sailor’s Boat

Kurt Hoehne Swiftsure Yachts 0 Comment
Fury

Amid the dedicated cruisers at our dock is Fury, a Baltic 42DP. A 2012 black LPU paint job makes this 1982 racer cruiser look classy and stylish in a way that belies her age. From a sailing standpoint, she shares a design lineage with Doug Peterson-designed Serendipity 43s. Baltic had cutting edge construction for the time, giving it an advantage over other production racer cruisers of the time. Below deck, it was configured to give the owner a true aft cabin without compromising the navigation station, galley or salon.

When her racing days were over, Fury became a dedicated, kayak-carrying cruiser. No big modifications were made to make her into a cruiser, as she was already configured properly with a good galley, large salon, and fore and aft staterooms with separate heads.

Fury is very much a sailor’s boat. She sails well on all points of sail. Large winches, headsail furling and lazy jacks make handling the powerful rig straightforward and manageable. Downwind her spinnaker will add power for the light wind. Upwind? Well, not many boats go more smoothly or powerfully than a 1980s Peterson design. A lot of “modern” boat skippers will wonder if you’re motoring.

And not many boats are going to garner the same looks as Fury at the dock. Comments will be a mix of “What IS that?” and “I remember racing against those!”

I would love to chat about Fury’s particulars with anyone who’s interested.

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 30 Sept, 1,2,3,Oct. Foulweather Bluff Race, Indian Summer continues.

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Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 30 Sept, 1,2,3,Oct. Foulweather Bluff Race, Indian Summer continues.

It is going to be another lovely weekend on the water even if the overnight hours will be a bit on the cool side. The surface analysis chart for today shows a thermal trough developing along the coast and a mish-mash of pressure systems. Overall, this will bring a northerly flow to the Salish Sea with light wind except in Admiralty Inlet and the Central Sound which may start with five knots of northerly but by noon should have 8-12 knots.

September 30 500MB
September 30 Surface Analysis
October 1 Surface Forecast
October 2 500MB
October 2 Surface Forecast
October 3 Surface Forecast
October 4 Surface Forecast
October 4, 500MB

This really looks good for the Foulweather Bluff Race. It might be a light northerly for the start which again this year will be just north of Kingston. This is fortunate because it will take a while for the northerly to get across the Sound to Edmonds. However, as the fleet beats to the north, the breeze will slowly build to 8-12 knots.

The other good news is that tidal current won’t be a major factor this year.

Current at Foulweather Bluff Buoy:

0636     Max Flood         1.31 knts

1112     Slack   

1230     Max Ebb           .16 knts

1418     Slack

1818     Max Flood         .55 knts

If the Long Course is selected, the J-105’s would be around in about 5.5 hours. Plenty of time to get back to the party at Kingston.

The other charts of interest are the Surface Forecast Charts for 48, 72, and 96 hours as well as the upper level (500mb)charts. As they show a persistent low-pressure system off the coast however since the jet stream is quite far north, there is nothing to push it in our direction. This is also the reason why we will have more of warmer than normal temps. Still no sign of any major precipitation over the next seven days.

Enjoy the weekend!

Tasar Worlds in Seattle Starting Today

Kurt Hoehne Dinghy Racing 0 Comment

If ever there was an entry list of who’s who in Seattle dinghy racing, one doesn’t really have to look further than the Tasar Worlds entry list. The regatta started today off Shilshole, and goes through next Saturday.

From the 217 Worlds in Japan, won by Jonathan McKee and Libby Johnson-McKee.

For those unfamiliar with the Tasar, it’s a 15′, 150- lb. 2-person skiff. With it’s light weight, fully battened main and rotating mast, it rewards excellent crew work and weight placement. The best sailors are those that work closely together. It’s not a boat that requires extraordinary strength or size, and is designed so that couples can be competitive.

As is most often the case, the real strength of the class isn’t the boat, but the people. It’s a tightknit group of enthusiasts that keep the class vibrant despite limited numbers and the distances between active fleets. Over the years, the Worlds have been on the Columbia River Gorge and Esquimalt in BC. They have also been in the UK, Japan Thailand and Australia.

The boat has been around since the mid-1970s and has been a mainstay of the Northwest most of that time. World. Major international regatta and Worlds winners from the PNW include Jonathan McKee and Libby Johnson-McKee, Charlie and Becky McKee, Jay and Lisa Renehan, Carol and Carl Buchan and Anthony and Haley Boscolo. Others on the podium include Dalton and Lindsey Bergan and Mike Karas. Teams from Australia and Japan have also made the trek to Seattle.

Looking to this year’s Worlds, most of the usual class suspects are tuned up again, with many of them shifting their focus from singlehanding at the RS Aero Worlds at Cascade Locks this summer to sailing with a partner for this regatta. Other strong entries from the area include Stasi Burzycki and Sophia Kasper. and Dieter Creitz and Sam Bush.

If you want to see dinghy sailing at its finest, and the current sailing conditions hold fast this week, a day watching these Worlds may be well worth the time.

Results from today’s practice race.

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 16, 17, 18, 19, and 20 Sept. Cooler this weekend, not enough rain to worry about, and then warmer next week.

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Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 16, 17, 18, 19, and 20 Sept. Cooler this weekend, not enough rain to worry about, and then warmer next week.

Our very pleasant fall will continue this weekend and then temps will warm back up slightly next week for a continuation of our Indian Summer. There is plenty of sailing going on this weekend with the added bonus of wind in the Central and North Sound. In fact, Admiralty Inlet to Tacoma could see a northerly breeze in the 15-20 knot range from 1000hrs tomorrow morning until sunset tomorrow night with that pattern repeating on Sunday.

September 16 500 MB
September 16 Surface Analysis
September 17 Surface Forecast
September 18 500 MB
September 18 Surface Forecast
September 19 Surface Forecast
September 20 500 MB
September 20 Surface Forecast

The area that could catch some boaters by surprise will the Strait of Georgia and the northern San Juan Islands which will have 15-25 knots of northwesterly breeze coming down the Strait of Georgia. This will ease slightly Saturday evening and then rebuild on Sunday.

This northerly flow will keep the breeze in the Strait of JdF fairly light all weekend. There will also be northerly breeze along the coastal waters on both days of the weekend.

Overall, this pattern will keep our air quality good with the bad news being that we are still well behind on rainfall for the month with no significant rainfall on the horizon. Unlike the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico which are going to get hammered (again) by Tropical Storm Fiona which because it is moving very slowly will dump a lot of rain on these islands. It remains to be seen if Fiona will make it to the Continental USA but it deserves watching.

The interesting feature of today’s charts is the 48 and 96hr upper air charts which show the formation of an upper-level cut-off low-pressure system off the northern and central California coast which is directly over a weak surface low-pressure system. The undulation in the jet stream shows why we are getting the cooler temps this weekend and the warmer temps next week. A fairly typical fall pattern.

Enjoy your weekend.