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STAPYs (Sailish.com Totally Arbitrary Performance of the Year Awards)

Kurt Hoehne PNW sailors around the world, STAPYs December 23, 2022December 30, 2022 0 Comment

Bruce promised some Boat of the Year awards, so here we go with the 2022 Sailish Totally Arbitrary Performance of the Year awards. The STAPYs if you will.

Pacific Northwest sailing and sailors are so spread out and diverse, we’ve chosen to pick and choose some arbitrary awards. Here’s the kicker, since our beloved pastime is so diverse, we want YOU to send in your choices. One rule, you can’t choose yourself. And here’s the kicker, it can be for just about anything sailing related. Racing, cruising, organizing, teaching, designing, building new boats, resurrecting old boats, good crew work, writing, rescues, selling and so forth. There’s a lot going on and plenty of people deserve kudos. Email me your nominations.

Kurt’s Nominations

Dalton Bergan We know Dalton’s been winning races ever since laying hands on a tiller. But this year was truly exceptional. He won both the RS Aero 7 Worlds on the Columbia River Gorge and the Tasar Worlds with wife Lindsey on Puget Sound.

Andrew Nelson Andrew has been the junior sailing director at The Sailing Foundation for 8 years. During that time youth sailing has exploded in participation, largely due to his energy and skills. He is moving on from that position now and leaving some big booties to fill.

Craig Horsfield My old skipper has truly outdone himself this time. First he took on the Mini Transat with two successful races. He is currently in the throes the first-ever Globe 40 doublehanded round the world race aboard Amhas. Teaming up with two other sailors, and splitting the legs between them. He’s sailed legs 2 (4^th) and 4 (1^st) and plans on racing three more legs.

Jonathan McKee His lifelong sailing resume is legendary. Dinghies, keelboats, inshore, offshore, Olympics, pro sailing, you name it. This year he received the recognition he deserves, entry into the Hall of Fame. Just remember, when you race against Jonathan, you’re racing against royalty.

Kirk Utter Well-known on the Seattle racing scene, he’d been threatening to sail off cruising into the sunset for many years. Well, he did it! Those of us wanting to do the same have to admire him for “just doing it.” He’s very active on Facebook if you’re interested in his adventures.

All those rescuers of Andy Schwenk While delivering his Express 37 Spindrift V back from Hawaii after winning his class in the Pacific Cup, expat Northwesterner Andy suffered a severe injury and resulting sepsis. Without the help and coordination of fellow sailors, a commercial ship, the Navy and many others, he might well have died. It’s a good sign that the first law of the sea (help other mariners in need) is alive and well.

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 23, 24, 24, 26, and 27 Dec. Season’s Greetings and Sailish.Com Boat of the Year

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs December 23, 2022December 23, 2022 0 Comment

What a difference a couple of hours make. We go from an ice-coated skating rink to freezing rain, to just plain rain. The problem will be in the areas that didn’t get cleared today as freezing conditions will continue into this evening until the warm rain starts to fall. Then it will all go away probably by noon tomorrow. The upcoming week will mark a distinct change in our weather.

Today’s surface analysis chart and sat pic show the remains of our ridge of high pressure that has been protecting us, deteriorating and moving east. While out in the Pacific there are a series of relatively strong low-pressure systems with attached frontal systems that will ride the jet stream(see today’s 500MB charts) right into the Pacific NW. Gone is the lowland snow while the valley rain will ramp up and the mountain snow will continue. It is after all the first week of winter so welcome to the real Pacific NW.

The coast and the San Juan Islands will bear the brunt of these systems with the possibility of gale-force winds as these systems come ashore. The Inland waters will see 15-25 knots of SE-S-SW breeze. This will continue into the upcoming week as each strong frontal system will bring roughly the same conditions.

sailish.com Boat-of-the-Year!

The Committee started early on this project because it was the first year of presenting this prestigious award. Then, after many Zoom meetings, it was decided that the Committee should meet in person for the final ballot. After a couple of hours of discussion, the result was an almost unanimous decision on the first ballot. The Committee then proceeded to request that we continue to deliver egg nog to the room even though the voting was over.

It is a great honor to present this year’s Sailish.Com Boat-of-the–of-the-Year Award to the mighty Bieker 35 Longboard! Peter Salusbury and his team out of West Vancouver Yacht Club had a truly exceptional year winning all three of the major races held in the Pacific NW. Those races were South Straits, Swiftsure, and Round the County, all of which had large and very competitive fleets. The Committee felt it was important to recognize the fact that Longboard races in the ORC group which is a measurement rule division, with no arbitrary ratings here. Plus Longboard is one of the smallest boats in all of ORC. That, however, didn’t keep Longboard from always finishing up with the bigger boats. They also consistently and intuitively went the right way on these long courses which is a real testament to Peter and his team and the way they run the boat.

Congratulations Longboard!

Note: The Committee of which Bruce speaks (side note that Bruce is currently in 72 degree weather wearing shorts and is nowhere near the ice he’s writing about ) will feature the STAPYs in a separate post. The Committee invites our readers to submit their nominees, because, face it, you see a lot of things we don’t. KH

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 16, 17, 18, and 19 Dec. A great weekend but a little chilly next week with maybe some snow on Tuesday.

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs December 16, 2022December 16, 2022 0 Comment

Other than the usual madness, not much is going on this weekend which makes it the perfect time to go for a short cruise. The anchorages aren’t crowded, the wind will be light and there won’t be much rain.

We have a nice ridge of high pressure just inland from the coast as well as a 1040MB high in the Gulf of Alaska. Both of these features as well as the jet stream will serve to keep us fairly dry.

This is currently a weak offshore flow that will continue through the day however by tomorrow a weak onshore flow will develop as the high in the Gulf of Alaska becomes a more dominant feature.

As the offshore high weakens and the inland high strengthens to 1052MB this will bring a strong Fraser River outflow to the Salish Sea along with a chance of snow on Sunday as that flow interacts with the moisture coming in from the Pacific.

Next week we will announce the Sailish.Com Boat of the Year recognizing excellence in sailing. The Committee is hard at work deciphering hundreds of race results and applying those to a fairly complicated formula. Thank goodness it’s the Holiday Season and there is plenty of eggnog available.

Enjoy the weekend and if you go out on the water, be safe.

Ed. Note: In addition to Boat of the Year (oh yeah Bruce we’ll have to do those difficult quantifications over a beer or three) we will announce various TA (Totally Arbitrary, what did you think) awards to sailors, luminaries, industry folk, do-gooders etc. Nominations welcome.

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 9, 10, 11, and 12 Dec. SBYC Snowbird #2 and SSSS Hope Island Race Saturday, RVYC Long Distance and WVYC Snowflake Sunday

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs December 9, 2022December 9, 2022 0 Comment

As our winter weather returns to “normal” we can expect some great sailing this weekend. What does “normal” mean? As far as precip goes we are at 33.72” for the year compared to an average of 35.14” so only 1.42” below normal but 6.31” behind where we were a year ago. The La Niña three-peat isn’t exactly racking up the numbers we’d expect except in the mountains where the snowpack is now over 100% of normal in the Cascades and Olympics, which is good unless you’re trying to dry over the passes.

Today’s Surface Analysis Chart shows a well-developed surface low-pressure system (983MB) just off the coast with an attached frontal system that will move through the Salish Sea late this afternoon and into Saturday morning. This will bring storm-force winds with higher gusts to the coast and Strait of JdF and gale-force winds to the San Juan Islands and Admiralty Inlet. Note the NWS Regional Forecast Chart. There is a second, slightly weaker low-pressure system (989MB) off of Sitka that will join the stronger low by tomorrow. This consolidated system will stay off the coast and slide south to bring more welcome rain and snow to northern California and the Sierra Nevada’s.

By Sunday our wall of inland high-pressure will rebuild over lower BC and this keep our weather relatively benign for the next 7-10 days. The cost of this will be below freezing temps at night for the same period. This also means no lowland or mountain snow however any runoff on the roads will freeze and create icy conditions for most mornings. Interesting commutes for sure.

As far as sailing this weekend, our friends in Victoria will be glad they’re racing on Sunday and not on Saturday because Saturday in the Straits it will be howling from the SE. Sunday they can expect a chilly 10-18 knots from the Fraser River Valley.

For the Snowbird Race in the Central Sound expect 15-20 from the SE in the morning, easing to 10-15 from the S in the afternoon. There will even be wind in the South Sound for the Hope Island Race just slightly less. Oh, and it will be a rainy Saturday over the entire area.

Dress appropriately, stay safe, and have a great weekend!

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 2, 3, 4, and 5 December. Winter Vashon! The full course, finally!

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs December 2, 2022December 2, 2022Winter Vashon Race 0 Comment

So when was the last race that wasn’t shortened at the top end of Vashon Island? Who cares! The point here is that this weekend looks like a Winter Vashon from the old days. Clear the snow off the deck, have a hot buttered rum (HBR), rig the boat, have an HBR, add another layer of woolies under the foul wx gear, have an HBR, and head for the starting line! Then, while on the race constantly check for hypothermia, especially on the upwind leg, and add HBR’s as necessary. Set the spinnaker at the top mark and have a nice semi-breezy run down the finish. Cross the finish line, de-rig the boat, have an HBR, head up to the fabulous hospitality of TYC, and swap lies with your fellow competitors. As I said, those were the good old days. Now in the age of high-performance boats and crews, we wait until after the race for an HBR while still enjoying the great hospitality at the Club! During the race, we use Chinese hot and sour soup to stay warm.

Our wacky winter weather continues as we start the month of December. We’ve had an early winter snow flurry and a drier-than-normal November, and we are still below normal rainfall for the year. A quick glance at today’s surface analysis chart, the 500MB chart, and the sat pic provide us with a great visual as to why this is happening. We have a weak low (997MB) offshore of the Olympic Peninsula that is moving to the south, not coming ashore, with a well-defined cold front as well as a stalled occluded front right over the top of us. Inland from us, we have a series of high-pressure systems from central Alaska to southern California which are continuing to block or weaken any systems that might head our way. The interesting feature on the 500MB chart is the wild meander in the jet stream which takes a due north path at about 163Wand goes north to about 62Nbefore it does a 180 and dives south 40N before turning to the east and coming ashore south of San Francisco. The combination of the wall of high-pressure systems and the path of the jet stream will keep the low-pressure system off of our coast headed to south and the attached cold front will bring much-needed rain to the central valley of CA and snow to the Sierra Nevada’s.

As you work your way through the charts, the upper air charts get even more interesting on the 4^th of Dec when that meander to the north becomes an upper-level cut-off high-pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska, you don’t see that very often. On the 6^th of Dec that cut-off high disappears while a new and intense upper-level cutoff low-pressure system forms to the NW of Hawaii. In the past, these systems have brought heavy rains and flooding to Kauai so we will be watching that as the week goes on.

So what does all of this mean for Winter Vashon? Pretty much it’s all good! We will start with a nice breeze of 8-18 knots from the ENE. With breeze being topographically forced down Colvos Passage, the breeze will ease to 5-12 from the NNE. Since you’ll be sailing up Colvos during the big flood of the day current won’t be much of a factor in Colvos. You will want to focus on being on starboard as you come off of the Vashon side of the Passage. The temptation will be to hit the Vashon side hard however since the breeze will be from the ENE-NE it will be possible to get too close to Vashon and into light air. Starboard tacks will be the long tacks so you’d like to come into the Vashon side on port south of the points so when you tack to starboard you’ll be sailing the lifting puffs as you work your way north. Once you get to about mid-channel on starboard look for a knock to tack back to port and go back to the Vashon shore. Tacticians and trimmers will be busy and will have no trouble staying warm.

The breeze will build slightly as you get to the top mark so you should be rounding in 12-16 knots of NNE so you’ll be sailing south on a port gybe. As you get past Pt Robinson you may want to delay gybing to starboard to make sure you stay in the breeze. From Pt. Robinson to the bottom end of both Maury and Vashon it will be lighter next to the islands. If you’re on starboard and you find yourself lifted above the finish and in less wind gybe immediately and get back into breeze.

As the day progresses and the offshore low-pressure system drifts to the south, the inland high-pressure systems over southern BC will build and this will bring a stronger NE-ENE breeze (15-20 knts) to the race course. There may still be light air patches from Robinson south as this develops. Tend to favor the rhumbline and stay slightly to the east of rhumb. By early evening, the breeze should be fairly solid from the NE.

Have a great race, stay warm, be safe and keep the AIS on so I can track you.

Holding Fast – A Cruising Memoir

Susan Cole Sea Stories November 20, 2022November 20, 2022 0 Comment

I’m pleased to share an excerpt from Susan Cole’s cruising memoir, “Holding Fast.” I’m looking forward to reading the rest of the book, which from its title and first few graphs promises to be a reflective look on the cruising life. Coles recently moved to the Northwest (Portland), and joins the many sailing and adventure authors already here, including Wendy Hinman, Jordan Hanssen, Jim Lynch, Jeffrey Briggs and others. KH

Excerpt from Chapter 1: Underway

We still lived in Connecticut that Saturday my husband John and I took our seven-year-old daughter Kate to Mystic Seaport. As we reached the town of white picket fences and tidy window boxes of petunias, geraniums, and zinnias, John turned to Kate and said, “In a few weeks, we’re going to move on Laughing Goat and go sailing.”

I sprang to attention in the back. We had discussed breaking the news to Kate, but I hadn’t known when John would do it. He waited until we came under the spell of the tall ships and recreated nineteenth-century village where blacksmiths and carpenters plied their trades. As usual, John took his time, raising a cigarette to his lips, inhaling, flicking ash in the tiny metal tray, flashing a grin at me, and waiting for Kate’s response. Though the smell of his cigarette smoke no longer intoxicated me as it had twenty years ago, I still loved the sensual curve of John’s hand around a cigarette.

John was six when his family moved to Africa. Before they went, his mother told him about lions and tigers and elephants and snakes, anthills as big as houses, and the wild bush that would surround their new house where he could play. He couldn’t wait to go. He wanted to impart a similar excitement to Kate about our voyage.

“Where are we going?” Kate asked.

“South. First to Florida. Then we’ll figure out where we want to go from there—somewhere in the Caribbean. We’ll snorkel. There are fantastic coral reefs, like nothing you’ve ever seen.”

“What about school?”

“You and Mom will do it on the boat.”

“What about our house?”

“We’ll rent it out.”

Kate glanced at me. Passing the schooners on Mystic River, I could imagine sailing down the Intracoastal Waterway through charming towns like those on Long Island Sound.

“It’ll be fun,” I said, feeling like Judas. I didn’t share my doubts and fears.

Kate told her class the next day that she was sailing to the Caribbean and snorkeling, and she wasn’t going to school anymore. Her teacher, a sailor, was thrilled for her and asked her to write the class about her adventures. She promised they would write back.

I wish it had been that simple for me. I did not want to go. John would tease me and say, “I’ll have to drag you out kicking and screaming, clinging to the garden.” I imagined myself red-faced and shrieking, my fingers black with dirt, while John yanked my legs and Kate stared open-mouthed.

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 18, 19, 20, and 21 Nov. Turkey Bowl, Le Mans, Fowl Wx Regatta, and Squaxin Island. November is the wettest month of the year? HA!

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs November 18, 2022November 19, 2022 2 Comments

Our year of wacky weather continues and once again we can just feel lucky we don’t live in Buffalo, NY with 4-FEET of lake effect snow expected by the end of the weekend. Yikes.

November is traditionally the wettest month of the year and with it being another La Niña year it should be maybe a bit wetter than normal. Not this year. So far we’ve only had 1.67” of rain compared to an average of 3.54”. Year to date we’ve only had 29.56” inches compared to an average of 30.85” while last year at this time we had 36.08” of rain in the gauge. If we don’t get any rain until Tuesday that will set a record for the greatest number of consecutive days without rain in November. If you look at the surface charts for today and out into next week our Coastal Buffer Zone may weaken that front to the point we get no rain on Tuesday. The next chance of rain will then be towards the end of next weekend.

Today’s surface chart and sat pic show an amazingly clear area over the Pacific Northwest. It usually doesn’t get this clear even in the summer. Remember also, that the white in the Cascades and Olympics, is snow and not clouds! The Sat Pic also shows the next low and attached frontal system out in the Pacific with excellent clarity. The surface chart is particularly interesting with a very high(1046mb), high-pressure system over lower inland BC. Earlier in the week, it was forecast to be as high as 1058mb. While very high, it is nowhere near the record of 1083.8mb set in Agata, Siberia. It is however the reason why we’ve had some very cool nights with a strong, cold flow out of the Fraser River Valley. The surface chart also shows a very effective wall of high-pressure systems running from the Bay area to well up into Alaska. This is what will keep us with below normal precipitation for at least the next 10 days.

Plenty of sailboat racing going on this weekend with the CYC Turkey Bowl being the biggest event and with the best chance of wind, at least on Saturday. As you can see from the Sunday surface chart, the pressure gradient eases considerably. So Sunday looks very light just about everywhere and that matches with the surface forecast charts. It looks light on Saturday for the Le Mans Race in Gig Harbor as well as the Squaxin Island Race out of Olympia.

For the Turkey Bowl on Saturday expect 5-8 knots of NNE in the mid-morning and then building to 8-12 knots by noon and holding for the rest of the day. Just about perfect but it will be chilly. At least no rain or snow. 

Enjoy the weekend and don’t forget the sunblock!

Round the County from Longboard

Peter Salusbury Racing November 15, 2022November 18, 2022Round the County Race 2 Comments

Ed.Note: Once again we lean on Peter Salusbury, skipper and owner of ORC-winning Longboard, for an RTC report. Congratulations to Peter and to all who managed to get away for a wonderful weekend.

The annual running of Round the Country sponsored by Orcas Island Yacht Club is in the books and it was a beauty. Very pleasant conditions for the long deliveries from Seattle and Vancouver in both directions and it had to be the driest RTC weekend ever!

The downwind start of Lydia Shoals on Saturday morning was picturesque as 120+ boats powered downwind in a nice northerly with the course this year going clockwise around San Juan County. It was a fast run for us all down to Davidson Rock where we turned west into a faltering breeze. For the most part on Saturday, investing in the south shore of Lopez Island paid off big and if you ventured too far offshore, it made for a challenging day. The wind got very light as we crawled across the short course line of Iceberg Point and then the wind started to build just a little out of the NW to get us moving along the south shore of San Juan Island.

Photo gallery below by Jan Anderson. See the rest of them here.

A new to town Hobie 33 legging out after the start

The passing lanes were frequent and decisive for those of us in the lead pack of ORC, Div 0 and 1 boats – one minute you were a ‘hero’ and the next a ‘zero’ as we played snakes and ladders up the coast line. Eventually a steady 10 knot NW filled in and we all beat up the coast to the finish line off Mosquito Pass in pretty idyllic November afternoon conditions – nice and sunny, not too cold.

Dawn on Sunday morning featured a steady northerly and after the first two starts got away clean, the ORC, Div M and 0 boats had to live through a general recall before finally getting underway for the day. As always, the currents off Turn Point were tricky and the kelp beds were plentiful requiring more than a few of us to do complete back-downs to clear our rudders and keels.

Photos below by Sean Trew

From Turn Point to Patos Island was a long light upwind beat with lots of lead changes, tidal currents, and wind shifts and eventually Bruce’s forecasted NW lifted us all up to Alden Point. You had to be careful not to hoist the kite too quickly as the south flowing current was running hard. From Patos to Peapod Rocks, we all enjoyed a beautiful and fast NW downwind ride with the sun shining and Mount Baker as a scenic backdrop. There’s something about seeing 120 boats with spinnakers all lined up down the shores of Patos, Sucia and Matia islands which really makes this race special.

The finish line off Lydia Shoals was as tricky as it always is with one last opportunity for lots of lead changes! The wind died off to nothing for the last 200 yards to the finish line and the boats that stayed further to the east on the great circle route faired better than the boats inshore. The other key was to figure out the set of the favorable flowing current so you got swept across the finish line, not around the ends (which happened to a few boats!).

The overall results can be found here but the division winners were:

Division M – Aliikai (who was the only full course finisher on Saturday)
Division ORC – Longboard (after two days of battling the well sailed Hamachi)
Division 0 – Annapurna (by four minutes over Tachyon and 10 minutes over Zulu Warrior)
Division 1 – Hooligan (J/111’s took top 3 finishes with 65 Red Roses in 2^nd and Raku in 3^rd)
Division 2 – Legacy (Canadian J/109 beating the US J/109 Spyhop)
Division 3 – Tc (Hobie 33 beating out fellow Hobie 33 Pip)
Division 4 – Free Bowl of Soup (taking the J/105 division)
Division 5 – Kodiak (with Pangaea in 2^nd place)
Division 6 – Wilder (beating out Cowbell by just 2 minutes)

Photos below by Frederick Savoye.

Huge shout-out to Betsy Wareham, Race Director and the Orcas Island YC volunteers who once again organized a great event – it’s always a lot of fun in the Roche Harbor party tent to get caught up with old friends on both sides of the border. This event is definitely the one ‘must attend’ race event for all of us who race in the Pacific NW and it was great to see so many great race boats with the NW’s top sailing talent battling it out on such a scenic and challenging race course.

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 11, 12, 13, 14, and 15 Nov. Round the County!

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs November 11, 2022November 11, 2022Round the County Race 0 Comment

Remember just a week ago? 50 knots in the Straits, snow in Sequim and the Olympics, tree’s down and 300,000 customers without power? When it comes to Round the County, you should have been here last weekend! It’s going to be light, but at least the currents aren’t bad.

We have a weak low-pressure system offshore (1012mb) with an attached frontal system that will continue to weaken and drift slowly off to the SSE. In the Pacific, we have a weak high-pressure system (1027mb) at roughly 42N 142W that isn’t moving very much but tending to drift to the east. Inland we have a weakening high-pressure system (1034mb) in lower BC. As this weak low continues to weaken and drift it will continue to ease the pressure gradient over the Pacific NW. Note the huge gap in the isobars on the 24hr forecast map for 12 Nov.

By the 13^th of Nov, a weak trough of low pressure will build along the coast from the north end of Vancouver Island south to the California-Mexican border. Note also that the gap in the isobars remains.

Tidal Currents for Rosario Strait

Sat 12 Nov

0954 Slack

1324 Max ebb .74 knts

1648 Max ebb .35 knts

Sun 13 Nov

1036 Slack

1418 Max ebb .62 knts

1642 max ebb .52 knts

Tidal Currents for Turn Point Haro Strait

Sat 12 Nov

1036 Slack

1124 Max ebb .16 knts

1300 Slack

1600 Max Flood .93 knts

Sun 13 Nov

0724 Max Flood 2.07 knts

1200 Slack

1636 Max Flood .71 knts

1836 Slack

How does all of this translate to conditions for Round the County? In a word, slow. 0900 start wind will be light from the starting area to Iceberg Point. This will remain until just after midday when there could be 5-8 knots for N-NNW from False Bay to the finish. By mid-afternoon, the breeze will return to light. Take your time at Iceberg Point.

It looks slightly better for Sunday with the remnants of a drainage easterly out of the Fraser River Valley. This, however, will ease until about midday when there is the possibility that an onshore flow will come down the Strait of Georgia and bring a light N to NW breeze to the race course even down to Lydia Shoal where a hole will develop around 1600hrs and continue into the evening. From Lawrence Point to the finish it could be the classic drag racing from hole to hole!

Have a safe race with plenty of warm fluids. Tacticians, trimmers, and drivers are going to be very busy. Keep your AIS on so I can watch from the beach.

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 4, 5, 6, 7, and 8 Nov. Duck Dodge Rum Run and Round the County Delivery Weather from the Sound to the SJ Islands. (Hint: Wait til Sunday)

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs November 4, 2022November 4, 2022Round the County Race, Rum Run 0 Comment

What difference a couple of weeks make. After a couple of weeks in October when we hit record high temps (88°F)we are now down to a high in the mid 50’s today and by next week we will be looking at highs in the low 40s with the possibility of some wet snowflakes on Monday. I think it’s safe to say that winter is upon us with the third year in a row of a La Niña event, in other words, cooler and wetter than normal.

Today has been a little on the wild and crazy side with plenty of rain and some fairly strong wind associated with a strong frontal system that is moving through the area today. We already have 14,000 folks without power in the Seattle Area. As of this afternoon, the barometer is still falling at Destruction Island so we are not done with this system yet. There is an interesting hint as to what is coming if you track the winds in the Strait of JdF which currently shows a post-frontal westerly of 26 knots at Sheringham with no wind at Race Rocks. This is just the start of what will be a strong onshore flow that will bring gale and storm warnings to the Straits for today and tomorrow.

Today’s surface analysis chart shows this warm front as it comes onshore, the sat pic shows nothing but clouds over the Pacific NW. The chart for Saturday shows what is causing this strong onshore flow with the front having moved on to Idaho and Montana. The isobars are very tightly bunched off the west coast of Vancouver Island and that is what will keep the strong onshore flow in place through Saturday.

By Sunday another frontal system will bring pre-frontal S-SE breezes to the area and that will be the day to do your delivery north to the San Juan Islands and practice some heavy air downwind spinnaker trim. Note also the Sunday-48hr Surface Forecast Chart which now shows a 1040MB high in the Gulf of Alaska that will divert the next low into Alaska. The low associated with the front on Sunday will drift south to California however it won’t bring much rain or snow to that area. By Tuesday, a strong ridge of high pressure will build over eastern BC and that will bring cool temps and strong winds down the Fraser River Valley.

What does this mean for the Rum Run? With the strong onshore flow, the Olympics will act as a barrier with stronger winds being to the north and the south. The Central Sound will be a little on the light side however eventually some SW breeze will make it to the race area.

The important thing to remember is that you always need to check conditions before you leave the dock and decide if you and your crew are properly and safely prepared for what you may find out there.

What does the crystal ball show for next weekend on Round the County? At this point, it looks a little light but we’ll see!

Have a safe weekend!

Kurt’s Nominations

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Excerpt from Chapter 1: Underway

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