What difference a couple of weeks make. After a couple of weeks in October when we hit record high temps (88°F)we are now down to a high in the mid 50’s today and by next week we will be looking at highs in the low 40s with the possibility of some wet snowflakes on Monday. I think it’s safe to say that winter is upon us with the third year in a row of a La Niña event, in other words, cooler and wetter than normal.
Today has been a little on the wild and crazy side with plenty of rain and some fairly strong wind associated with a strong frontal system that is moving through the area today. We already have 14,000 folks without power in the Seattle Area. As of this afternoon, the barometer is still falling at Destruction Island so we are not done with this system yet. There is an interesting hint as to what is coming if you track the winds in the Strait of JdF which currently shows a post-frontal westerly of 26 knots at Sheringham with no wind at Race Rocks. This is just the start of what will be a strong onshore flow that will bring gale and storm warnings to the Straits for today and tomorrow.
Today’s surface analysis chart shows this warm front as it comes onshore, the sat pic shows nothing but clouds over the Pacific NW. The chart for Saturday shows what is causing this strong onshore flow with the front having moved on to Idaho and Montana. The isobars are very tightly bunched off the west coast of Vancouver Island and that is what will keep the strong onshore flow in place through Saturday.
By Sunday another frontal system will bring pre-frontal S-SE breezes to the area and that will be the day to do your delivery north to the San Juan Islands and practice some heavy air downwind spinnaker trim. Note also the Sunday-48hr Surface Forecast Chart which now shows a 1040MB high in the Gulf of Alaska that will divert the next low into Alaska. The low associated with the front on Sunday will drift south to California however it won’t bring much rain or snow to that area. By Tuesday, a strong ridge of high pressure will build over eastern BC and that will bring cool temps and strong winds down the Fraser River Valley.
What does this mean for the Rum Run? With the strong onshore flow, the Olympics will act as a barrier with stronger winds being to the north and the south. The Central Sound will be a little on the light side however eventually some SW breeze will make it to the race area.
The important thing to remember is that you always need to check conditions before you leave the dock and decide if you and your crew are properly and safely prepared for what you may find out there.
What does the crystal ball show for next weekend on Round the County? At this point, it looks a little light but we’ll see!
Have a safe weekend!
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)