Remember just a week ago? 50 knots in the Straits, snow in Sequim and the Olympics, tree’s down and 300,000 customers without power? When it comes to Round the County, you should have been here last weekend! It’s going to be light, but at least the currents aren’t bad.
We have a weak low-pressure system offshore (1012mb) with an attached frontal system that will continue to weaken and drift slowly off to the SSE. In the Pacific, we have a weak high-pressure system (1027mb) at roughly 42N 142W that isn’t moving very much but tending to drift to the east. Inland we have a weakening high-pressure system (1034mb) in lower BC. As this weak low continues to weaken and drift it will continue to ease the pressure gradient over the Pacific NW. Note the huge gap in the isobars on the 24hr forecast map for 12 Nov.
By the 13th of Nov, a weak trough of low pressure will build along the coast from the north end of Vancouver Island south to the California-Mexican border. Note also that the gap in the isobars remains.
Tidal Currents for Rosario Strait
Sat 12 Nov
0954 Slack
1324 Max ebb .74 knts
1648 Max ebb .35 knts
Sun 13 Nov
1036 Slack
1418 Max ebb .62 knts
1642 max ebb .52 knts
Tidal Currents for Turn Point Haro Strait
Sat 12 Nov
1036 Slack
1124 Max ebb .16 knts
1300 Slack
1600 Max Flood .93 knts
Sun 13 Nov
0724 Max Flood 2.07 knts
1200 Slack
1636 Max Flood .71 knts
1836 Slack
How does all of this translate to conditions for Round the County? In a word, slow. 0900 start wind will be light from the starting area to Iceberg Point. This will remain until just after midday when there could be 5-8 knots for N-NNW from False Bay to the finish. By mid-afternoon, the breeze will return to light. Take your time at Iceberg Point.
It looks slightly better for Sunday with the remnants of a drainage easterly out of the Fraser River Valley. This, however, will ease until about midday when there is the possibility that an onshore flow will come down the Strait of Georgia and bring a light N to NW breeze to the race course even down to Lydia Shoal where a hole will develop around 1600hrs and continue into the evening. From Lawrence Point to the finish it could be the classic drag racing from hole to hole!
Have a safe race with plenty of warm fluids. Tacticians, trimmers, and drivers are going to be very busy. Keep your AIS on so I can watch from the beach.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)