While it’s great to read Bruce Hedrick’s weather analyses here on Sailish, it’s even better to hear him in person. A last minute move has put Bruce on stage, literally, tomorrow and next Wednesday.
Here’s the spiel that wasn’t done until after the show programs are printed:
Marine Weather in the Pacific NW: Where to get it and how to interpret It once you get it.
Bruce has been involved in boating in the Pacific Northwest for over five decades and has done just about every major sailboat race on West Coast. He was also the Managing Editor at Northwest Yachting Magazine for 18 years. Currently, he is the Chief Forecaster for Meadow Point Marine, providing event-specific weather forecasts and vessel routing services. He also writes Bruce’s Brief that comes out on most Fridays on sailish.com.
Bruce will be giving weather programs at the Seattle Boat Show tomorrow at 6 pm on Stage 6 and Wednesday, January 30 at 2:15 on Stage 3 in the North Hall. He’ll also be at the NMTA (Northwest Marine Trade Show) booth at various times during the show. Stop by and say hi!
That all seemed a little too reasonable and dry, so the the editors at sailish.com (me, Booboo the mutt and Bijou the Anatolian Shepherd) came up with the following:
Not only will Bruce be able to show you how to predict the weather with 99.2 percent accuracy, he’ll also teach you how to control the weather ahead of time, stop storms when they get too bad and, for you racers, engage a windshift at exactly the right moment. It’s a program not to be missed.
Kurt grew up racing and cruising in the Midwest, and has raced Lasers since the late 1970s. Currently he is a broker at Swiftsure Yachts. He has been Assistant Editor at Sailing Magazine and a short stint as Editor of Northwest Yachting. Through Meadow Point Publishing he handles various marketing duties for smaller local companies. He currently is partners on a C&C 36 which he cruises throughout the Northwest. He’s married to the amazing Abby and is father to Ian and Gabe.
Plus need a last minute gift for the boater in your crowd?
Go to the bottom of this update. *
As my friend Brandon Baker at Elliott Bay Marina reminded me
last week, “It is that time of the year!” No, this is not a duplicate of last
week, we simply have yet another strong system coming ashore tomorrow.
It’s not often you get so many colors in the Weather Advisory from the NWS but yesterday’s was particularly colorful and that is usually not a sign of good weather.
Note especially the deep purple for the coast and the eastern end of the Straits. It’s not for a gale warning, it’s a storm warning, one step below hurricane. So while this won’t be as strong as last Friday it will be right up there. Here’s why; note in the current surf analysis the print right off of our coast, the part that says developing storm. The low just below that may be only 1004MB however it is going to strengthen as it comes on shore.
The chart for today shows why this system will bear watching.
Our innocuous 1004MB low has become a 984MB storm that is now very tightly wound and headed
right into central Vancouver Island with an attached cold front extending
almost all the way to the Hawaiian Islands. It is moving very quickly and once
it hits the coastal buffer zone it will weaken as it moves inland. The other
part is that with the current jet stream we have a classic Pineapple Express
that will bring plenty of rain and a rising freezing level. That combination
can cause low land flooding as our minimal snow back degrades in the rising
temps.
The day will come…
So if it’s not going to be as severe as last Friday and I
properly secured my vessel, what’s the problem? First off, it may not be that
severe but it’s going to be close. Second, in
all jostling your vessel has been through, remember that chafe is a relentless
enemy and works 24-hours a day on those mooring lines. Remember also that those
fenders can be bounced up and on to the dock so those need to be checked as
well.
The timeline for this system (done yesterday) is roughly as follows, again, this is not precise so prepare in advance!
Recommended by Bruce and your humble editor.
*I have said recently that the weather is getting interesting however I never thought that would include a tornado in Port Orchard. However, just in time for the Holiday Season, if you need a last minute gift for the boater on your list I would highly recommend the latest edition of Modern Marine Weather by David Burch. I stopped by Starpath in Ballard the other to pick up this book and I must say that is the best work on marine weather I have seen. It is very up to date, very complete, easy to read and understand, and you should probably have a copy at home as well as on the boat. You still have time to pick one up at the Starpath Shop in Ballard at 3050 NW 63rd Street or you can order it online at www.starpathpublications.com. Highly recommended.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
Yeah, it’s getting cooler and cloudier but no reason to give up on boating yet. When you look at the Sat pictures for today you’ll see that there simply isn’t much moisture in the system for this weekend. Scattered drizzle at best. The good news for sailors is that we’ll have wind in the Center Sound for both days. The bad news is that if the boat is still up in the Gulf or San Juan Islands the trip back might get a little rough, especially on Sunday when the next front approaches.
Click to enlarge.
September 7 500MB
September 7 Surface Chart
September 8 Surface Forecast
September 9 Surface Forecast
September 11 500MB
September 11 Surface Forecast
You can see from the charts that we’ll have a frontal system that will move into the area tonight and then weaken by Saturday morning. This will be followed by a weak onshore post-frontal flow through the day on Saturday. Another front will approach the coast on Sunday and move inland Sunday night. This will create a strong pre-frontal flow of southeasterly wind over the area especially from Point No Point north into the San Juan and Gulf Islands. The central and south Sound will see 10-15 knot south-southeasterly wind most of the day. In other words, great sailing!
The Tuesday (11 Sept Chart) has a number of interesting features the primary one being a medium strength low (988MB) in the central Pacific which will have the effect of further degrading what is left of the Pacific High. This will have the added effect of driving Hurricane Olivia on a course that is slightly south of due west and putting the Hawaiian Islands squarely in the crosshairs. As if they haven’t had enough rain already this year and then there’s yet another Tropical depression forming right astern of Olivia which will probably follow a similar path. The problem will continue to be that the jet stream is well north over the Pacific and that 550MB Upper level low will remain a cutoff Low-Pressure system that won’t move very fast. See the 11 Sept 500MB chart.
Fall is definitely approaching at least it won’t really rain until after the weekend!
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
Finally the weather in the NW will trend back towards “normal”. Whatever that is. The good news is that we’re going to have a very weak set of weather systems sweep over the top of us and this will keep the cloud cover and onshore flow in place as well as keep the smoke from coming in again.
The interesting feature in the charts this week is the Pacific High which over the course of the next four days will continue to weaken from 1033MB down to 1026MB and will go from round to a more flattened high-pressure system as these weak low-pressure systems continue to degrade it.
Sept 1 Surface Forecast
September 2 Surface Forecast
September 4 Surface Forecast
August 31 Surface Analysis
As I said, this will keep the onshore flow in place which will have the usual effect of creating strong westerlies in the central and eastern part of the Straits of JdF for this evening and into tomorrow. This will ease over the weekend making the trip home from the San Juans or Gulf Islands a nice voyage.
For Sunday morning expect light breeze from the west in the Straits which will become southerly in the northern inland waters and northerly in Admiralty Inlet and Puget Sound. Monday morning will have a northwesterly flow come down the Strait of Georgia and then fill down into Admiralty Inlet and Puget Sound. The Strait of Georgia will have slightly more wind than the rest of the Salish Sea, 15-18 knots compared to 5-10 for Puget Sound.
Here’s Hanalei Valley on Kauai, where a ton of rain took its toll.Have a great Labor Day Weekend and as always, check the VHF weather for conditions along your intended route.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
We’ve probably all had enough of this smoke. Unfortunately, it’s not really going to change for a while. Today’s surface chart shows the reason for this with a strengthening offshore high-pressure system (1034MB building to 1037MB) centered off of the mid-Oregon coast and a weak thermal low-pressure system (1007MB) over eastern BC, Washington, and Oregon with the Salish Sea sandwiched in between. This will give us an onshore flow which will persist over the weekend. Giving us the usual strong flow down the Straits resulting in small craft advisories for the central and eastern Straits for this evening and into Saturday but not much further.
Click any image to enlarge.
August 24 Surface Forecast
August 25 500MB Chart
August 25 Surface Forecast
August 26 Surface Forecast Chart
August 28 Surface Forecast Chart
The stronger onshore flow while north-northwesterly off the coast will still be directly onshore along the coast resulting in light southerlies in the central and southern Puget Sound along the surface while the upper winds will remain from the north. This will continue to bring smoke into the Sound from British Columbia from a number forest fires that continue to burn from the north end of Vancouver Island all across BC, just take a look at the chart of current fires.
For a while this week we were hoping that a frontal system attached to a low in the Gulf of Alaska would make its way into the area Saturday and Sunday. While there may be some cloudy conditions there won’t be much, if any, rain as that front is rapidly disintegrating. See the satellite picture.
Overall, we’ll have cooler temperatures and some smoky haze however it probably won’t be as bad as earlier in the week. Don’t let that stop you from boating, it’s still summer and with school starting way too soon (for some) that will have the effect of curtailing some boating. The long-range forecast is for a lovely Indian Summer which is just about perfect boating weather and you’ll have the anchorages all to yourself.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
Tyee Pool Campbell River – click to enlarge. Looks like First Federal Sails like a Girl with the red spin and Ptarmigan.
It is setting up to be a very interesting race, especially after last night where Pt Watercraft(PtW), after having been well in the lead, had to get some sleep. That allowed Sail Like a Girl (FFSLAG), Ptarmigan (Pmg), and Wild Card (WC) to all slip by leaving PtW about 5 miles behind at dawn. That didn’t last long as PtW lit the afterburners and is now slowly but inexorably grinding them all down and as of 1200 is back into third place and rapidly closing in on second.
Then there’s the weather. From the surface chart, you can see it’s a bit of a complex situation that is preventing any kind of typical summer weather from setting up. The ridge of high-pressure offshore is continuing to weaken as low-pressure systems continue to push into it. Being elongated from north to south doesn’t help it and with another low with an attached frontal system approaching it will continue to weaken and eventually it will be absorbed by a strengthening high-pressure system on the backside of that occluded front. Then there are the two weakly organized low-pressure systems just two the northeast of the race course. That’s the good news and the bad news. This will provide SE breeze for most of the racers over a pretty large area today. This may be enough for the current crop of leaders to get through the Narrows and into Johnstone Strait. The problem will be that as these lows dissipate, a new ridge will try to form over the western end of Johnstone Straits. This will bring light westerlies down Johnstone by mid to late afternoon. By early evening this could be 8-knots near Hardwicke Island. Unfortunately, by around midnight, this ridge will start to break down and racers will be in for another night of very light and shifty breeze.
June 19 Surface Analysis
June 20 Surface Forecast
June 21 Surface Forecast
June 23 Surface Forecast
It looks like the first six boats will make it through this tidal gate with a big slamming noise occurring around 1630 hours this afternoon. If FFSLAG can get around Chatham Pt and into Johnstone they have the potential to really put some distance on the rest of this group. Lagopus, Pmg, and Blue Flash are at risk of becoming stranded on the tidal treadmill if they don’t get past the Narrows.
The long-term outlook doesn’t start looking much better until the 23rd or 24th of June when another low-pressure system will start pushing into the area between the north end of Vancouver Island and the Queen Charlotte Islands. That will bring a pre-frontal SE breeze over the area and give racers a welcome tailwind.
Thanks Bruce. I’ll be following this up with a little post of my own. Go Wild Card! –KH
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
What can we say except it’s going to look a lot like summer around here for the foreseeable future. Temperatures in the upper 70’s to mid 80’s and not really any extreme winds around even in the Straits. The surface charts show a nice high-pressure off the coast that is not going to move very far or very fast because the jet stream is simply going over the top of it. The only place on the coast that will be breezy is the section from the mid-coast of Oregon south to just north of San Francisco. There will still be a weak onshore flow coming down the Straits that could bring 15-20 knots of westerly this afternoon and Saturday afternoon as well. After that, the high will just sit over us bringing us dry and warm conditions. The perfect time to be out on the boat.
Click to enlarge any image:
June 15 Surface Analysis
June 16 500MB
June 16 Surface Forecast
June 17 Surface Forecast
June 19 500MB
June 19 Surface Forecast
For the folks leaving at noon on Sunday for Ketchikan in the R2AK, this will present some very interesting choices. It’s looking to be light for the start out of Victoria with a flood tide starting around 1430 hrs. This will be perfect for the rowers and the SUP folks and they can go the shortest possible course to get up to Nanaimo. The sailors will probably go up Trincomali Channel and then out Porlier Pass to get into 15-20 knots of NW breeze in the Strait of Georgia. Once you get north of Nanaimo the breeze will back off and stay light at least until Wednesday. Right now it looks like getting through Seymour Narrows and Johnstone Strait will be a challenge because of the lack of wind. We’ll see.
The plan is to update this forecast tomorrow afternoon when the new models are released.
In the meanwhile, enjoy what will be a glorious weekend!
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
Synopsis for the northern and central Washington coastal and inland waters…A cold front will move slowly through the coastal waters this morning. The front will cross the inland waters this afternoon and evening. Moderate onshore flow will continue Saturday then start to weaken late Sunday. High pressure will build over the area and bring weaker gradients Monday and Tuesday.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
After Swiftsure, this week certainly went by fast and now we’re racing again tomorrow. One thing is clear, we won’t have the onshore flow we had last weekend and into this week. I don’t think I’ve seen so many days of 30+ knots of westerly at Race Rocks for so many days in a row. It did make for some great racing unless of course, you were on Mist. We had a great time on Tahlequah but now it’s time to catch up on all the deferred gardening. One day you’re the king of the Straits having a great time sailing with your buddies and the next, you’re on your hands and knees pulling weeds.
June 1 Doppler
This weekend in the Straits will be much different as we’ll have a weak frontal system reach the coast tonight and then dissipate as it moves over land tonight. The onshore flow will return Saturday afternoon and continue into next week. You can just see the leading edge of this system starting to show up on the coast on the coastal Doppler.
For the last of the Tri-Island Series Race don’t expect much wind until mid to late afternoon on Saturday. Just don’t forget the sunblock before you leave the house! The other minor difficulty will be the tides, not exactly helpful.
Tidal Currents at West Point
0724 Slack
0912 Max Ebb .32 knots
1106 Slack
1648 Max Flood .94 knots
2024 Slack
The first gun is supposed to be around 0900 hours however if you look at the surface charts you’ll notice the remains of a trough moving to the east and unfortunately that will leave a large gap in the pressure gradient. This will result in a light downslope, drainage breeze from the east in the morning. With some clearing and no gradient, this could be the perfect set-up for the Swihart Effect which says the northerly will start down the Sound once the flood tide gets rolling which will mid to late afternoon. When this will build will largely depend upon when we get enough clearing over the Pugetopilus to start some heating and draw the breeze down the Sound. If the clearing continues, look for the northerly to continue to build through the late afternoon.
June 1 Surface Analysis
June 2 Surface Forecast
June 3 Surface Forecast
June 5 Surface Forecast
As is typical for the Blake Island Race, you can pick your poison deciding which way you are going to go around the Island. In almost all cases it’s best to leave the Island to starboard. This is because of the ebb that continues to roll up Colvos and the back side of the Island. The flood may not get all the way to the bottom of the Island, however, there will be more wind on the east side of the Island.
The star marks the distance you need to be off the Island.
If the breeze is northerly in the starting area, you’ll probably do a starboard set just don’t go west too long. Before the start, watch the flag at the West Point lighthouse and if it’s showing any easterly at all plan a gybe to port to be at the West Point Buoy. If on port, you’re aiming at Alki, hold that gybe until you get lifted to Spuds Fish and Chips, then gybe and aim at the Island. Just don’t get too close to the Island especially at the south end. See the picture. If you swing wide enough at the south end you’ll carry the northerly into the light zone. Just be ready to smoothly transition into what little breeze there will be on the backside of the Island. Headsail up, in the starboard groove, spinnaker down, all without changing course and hopefully without slowing much.
Since you’ll be swept along with the ebb up the backside of the Island, sail the favored tack, usually starboard and don’t get too close to the Island. By the same token don’t too far over to the Manchester shore as it will get light in there as well. Work your way up to Bainbridge Island since the current tends to set from west to east along that south shore. Once you get to Restoration hold on to port tack. If you are aimed at Four Mile Rock, just keep going right up to Magnolia Bluff. If you end up being headed below(east of) Four Mile, take a short hitch until you can once again be above Four Mile. Really watch your depth sounder coming into there as it gets very shallow, very quickly. If the breeze has built as you’ve come across you’ll want to do your tack change here going from the light #1 to the heavy #1going from port to starboard tack. You should be right under the Bluff and it will be puffy so the mainsheet/ traveler person is going to be working very hard to keep the boat on its feet.
Once you clear West Point hold on to starboard tack until you can lay the entrance to the Ship Canal. Of course, this also depends on where the finish line is located. You’d like to get close to the entrance so it will be easier to call the tack to the finish, finishing on starboard and probably in more breeze than the boats on the outside. There will also be a nice push from the current coming out of the Ship Canal.
Be safe, use lots of sunblock, and have a great time.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
Another very interesting week of weather especially if you were having to work in the upper Midwest, or in New England. Our big weather story has been about the low-pressure system that will brush us tomorrow. Earlier in the week, it was forecast to come ashore somewhere along the central to north coast of Washington. It is a compact and intense system and had it come ashore it would have done some damage. Right now it appears it will make landfall sometime Sunday near mid-Vancouver Island. The associated cold front will be over us mid-day tomorrow. The coast will bear the brunt of this storm while the Sound will probably see 25-30 knots of southerly late Saturday afternoon and into the evening hours, easing after midnight.
April 6 Surface Analysis
April 7 500MB
April 7 Surface Forecast
April 8 500MB
April 8 Surface Forecast
April 10 Surface Forecast
Nothing is currently showing up on the Doppler Radar however, the satellite picture gives us a very clear view of this low-pressure system and its cold front. We have generally light southeasterly flow over the area now and this will increase as the system approaches starting late this afternoon and into the evening. With the uncertainty of how this low will interact with the coast, the models are not in agreement as to how much wind we’ll have in the Sound and when it may or may not arrive.
The first start is at 1100 hours and there should be about 12-18 knots of southerly. This will go up and down over the course of the day. This is a reverse start so the battle on the upwind leg will be to keep your air clear. Tides will not be much of a factor.
Tidal Currents at West Point
0706 .47 knots Flood
1006 Slack
1136 .17 knots Ebb
1424 Slack
1924 .86 knots Flood
So you will want to get a clear air start and then hold starboard tack to the breakwater and then work your way up under West Point as there will still be some wind-generated surface current against you. At West Point head, across the Sound on port tack. Go all the way to the Bainbridge shore to again get out of what current there is. There should be a slight knock as you get to Bainbridge so sail well into it before you tack to starboard and work your way up to the Rock. You’ll probably do a port pole set however as you get past all the rocks headed north get set up to gybe and get aimed at West Point. At West Point, the wind may shift slightly to the SSE and become puffy as the wind starts to come out of the Ship Canal. Get set-up to do your drop early and start negotiating with the boats around you for buoy room at Meadow Point. As you sail past the finish line be sure to sight it and figure out which end is favored. Perfect sail handling at this mark will pay big dividends. You’ll need to tack out from the beach fairly quickly so make sure that is all part of your rounding plan. You should tack back to starboard once you can make the beach between the bathhouse and the north end of the breakwater. There will be a knock as you get in close to the beach. Tack when you can lay the favored end. If it’s the buoy end put a little in the bank because the current from the Ship Canal will set you out.
I also had a great question this week once it looked like it might be breezy and we could be in for some heavy weather. The question was “How do you define heavy weather?” The answer is that you define what heavy weather is and that is the point where you and your crew are no longer comfortable sailing in the existing conditions and there exists the possibility of hurting someone or doing damage to the vessel. So for tomorrow, we will all be in life jackets and safety harnesses and if it’s cranking, we may just stay at the dock. Nothing wrong with that!
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
