Weather

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 2, 3, 4 August

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs, Weather 0 Comment
Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 2, 3, 4 August

Last night was certainly interesting with a moderately strong cold front that moved quickly through the Salish Sea reminding us that while it may have been in the 80’s yesterday, there is always an opportunity for rain and wind. The cold front brought the temps down just a bit and left us with a cloud cover this morning which by now has almost totally burned off. This will now be the start of a great Seafair weekend and if you’re not on the Lake, you’re going to have a very enjoyable time out on the Salish Sea.

  • 500MB August 2
  • Surface Forecast August 3
  • Surface Forecast August 4
  • Surface Forecast August 5
  • 500MB August 6
  • Surface Forecast August 6

This is confirmed by both the surface analysis chart and today’s satellite picture which show the remnants of the cold front and yet another series of low-pressure systems lined up offshore and headed for the Pacific NW. The Pacific High is still not “normal,” that is, it’s not in the right place and it still is no where near the pressure it should be. As a result, there are now a series of thermal low-pressure systems forming east of the Cascades which combined with the weak high-pressure system in the Pacific will keep an onshore flow coming down the Strait of JdF and generally keeping the weather warm but not hot. In other words, another great summer weekend in the Pacific NW that will carry into next week.

Also assisting in keeping our weather on the moderate side, are the two, weak, upper level lows showing on the 500MB chart for today. One is off our coast, the other is a cut-off low over Vancouver Island. This will bring occasional morning cloudiness over the area and generally act as a lid to keep things from getting too warm. All good.

Conditions for the Salish Sea will tend to be light with very little gradient, with some breeze in the Eastern Strait of JdF in the late afternoon and evening hours diminishing after midnight.

Use the sunblock, be safe, and enjoy our glorious summer.

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 26, 27, 28 and 29 July Broken record, Summery Tune

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs, Weather 0 Comment
Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 26, 27, 28 and 29 July Broken record, Summery Tune

This is beginning to sound like a broken record. A weak high-pressure system offshore, located south of its “normal” position with an upper level low with an attached and very weak frontal system approaching the coast. As this front approaches the coast, it will encounter the coastal buffer zone and break apart but only after bringing some clouds and maybe some very light rain early tomorrow morning after which we will resume our lovely summer. A much nicer summer than sweltering in the eastern US or Europe where new high temperature records smashed the old ones yesterday. Imagine 108⁰ F in Paris, a city with very little air conditioning.

  • July 26 500MB
  • July 26 Surface Analysis
  • July 27 Surface Forecast
  • July 28 Surface Forecast
  • July 29 Surface Forecast
  • July 30 500MB
  • July 30 Surface Forecast

The surface analysis chart and satellite picture for today provide a very clear overview of what we have going for us. The other interesting chart is the 500MB for today and the 30th of July which show a persistent upper level low off the upper BC coast. That, combined with two cutoff low pressure systems in the central and western Pacific, explains the Surface forecast chart for the 30th of July which shows an unprecedented number of low pressure systems lined up across the Pacific. In fact, this looks way more like a winter picture than a summer scheme with eight low-pressure centers and only two high-pressure centers. The main difference between now and the winter is that all of these lows are relatively weak.

So just like the last couple of weeks there will be a weak onshore flow that will bring a westerly flow down the Straits with stronger breeze in the late afternoons and into the early evenings before easing after midnight. The rest of the Salish Sea will, for the most part, see light air with the possibility of stronger breeze in the Central Sound in the same time frame as the Straits.

Enjoy the weekend and be safe out there.    

Bruce’s Briefs; Wx for 19, 20, 21, and 22 July

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Bruce’s Briefs; Wx for 19, 20, 21, and 22 July

While the rest of the country will be trying to survive some dangerously high temperatures this weekend, we will be enjoying a lovely weekend with highs in the mid to upper 70’s and lows in the upper 50’s and low 60’s! In other words, a perfect weekend to be out on the water.

  • July 19 500MB
  • July 19 Surface Analysis
  • July 20 Surface Forecast
  • July 21 500MB
  • July 22 Surface Forecast
  • July 23 Surface Forecast
  • July 27 Surface Forecast

As you can see from the surface charts, the Pacific High has yet to really set up and there are still a number of weak low-pressure systems coming across the Pacific and into the Pacific Northwest. These systems are aided by a couple of upper level, cut-off low-pressure systems that without any jet stream over our area, are just sort of drifting around keeping us with occasionally cloudy and wet weather. I would say keep them coming and let the rain continue as this will help shorten the fire season. Speaking of rain, this has been the wettest July we’ve had in years. As of today, we’ve had just over an inch of rain when by this time the norm would be closer to ½ inch.

With a weak high-pressure system offshore, we will still have a weak onshore flow which could result in breezy conditions in the central and eastern Strait of JdF in the late afternoon and into the evening hours. Don’t be surprised if we see 15-25 knots of westerly in those times, particularly late Sunday.

For Puget Sound, you can expect light northerlies. For the San Juan and Gulf Islands there should be light northerlies on Saturday that will switch over to light southerlies Saturday night and into Sunday morning.

For the folks doing the deliveries north, take lots of fuel, switch on the auto-pilot, and keep a sharp lookout for logs.

Have a great weekend, use lots of sunblock, and be safe out on the water.   

Bruce’s Briefs: 12, 13, and 14 July 2019

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Bruce’s Briefs: 12, 13, and 14 July 2019

Looks like a pretty nice weekend to be out on the water as we are finally getting to summer-like weather. The surface analysis chart for today and the surface forecast chart for tomorrow show a couple of interesting features. The first being that today’s chart shows that the Pacific High is nowhere to be seen yet and we still have another weak low-pressure system (1013MB) off the coast. Tomorrow’s forecast chart shows no less than eight (8) high-pressure centers with four of them off the coast of California and areas of heavy fog well off the coast from Santa Barbara to the north end of Vancouver Island.

  • July 12 500MB
  • July 12 Surface Analysis
  • July 13 Surface Forecast
  • July 14 500MB
  • July 14 Surface Forecast
  • July 16 Surface Forecast

Overall, this keeps an onshore flow coming into the Salish Sea with stronger westerlies developing in the central and eastern Strait of Jdf in the late afternoon and early evening hours. This pattern will hold into early next week.

For the TransPac racers, the folks that started Wednesday are making pretty good time with most driving hard to the SW to stay away from that weak high-pressure system off of Santa Barbara. The group that starts today should have a very pleasant sail with enough wind to get away from the coast by early this evening and into a steady NW breeze of 12-16 knots. They could be on A3’s by Sunday. The big boats which start tomorrow are not going to have as much wind and it will be slow getting past Catalina and San Nicolas.

GO LONGBOARD!

Have a great weekend!

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 28, 29, 30, June and 1 July.

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs, Weather 0 Comment

What a long, strange week it’s been! And it’s not going to get much better over the weekend with the wind over the Salish Sea being uncharacteristically light. I just love it when the marine forecaster says variable winds becoming light. Not a good sign for sailors, a great sign for powerboaters.

  • 28 June 500MB
  • 28 June Surf Analy
  • 29 June Surface Forecast
  • 30 June 500MB
  • 30 June Surface Forecast
  • 2 July Surface Forecast

The surface charts tell the story with two troughs of low pressure bracketing a weak ridge of high pressure that is right over the Salish Sea. The Pacific High is abnormally elongated to the north and south and is not very strong at 1030MB. By tomorrow the pressure gradient will ease over the Pacific Northwest and that offshore trough of low pressure will become a very weak (1017MB) system that simply won’t last very long. The Pacific High will continue to follow this strange pattern of trying to stabilize and then weakening again this time to 1026MB. On Sunday, which will probably be the nicest day of the weekend, there will be almost no gradient over the Salish Sea. The Pacific High will be pushed very far to the south, like 34N at 140W. However, there is hope as a stronger high is now starting to form in the Gulf Alaska. The TransPac teams are just really glad they’re not starting now. And then there’s the first Tropical storm of the season, Alvin, which will be putting a brief but somewhat disruptive appearance.

We’ll have a weak upper level low over the area for the weekend which will occasionally cause some light rain today and tomorrow.

Then again, it is the Pacific NW. Have a great weekend and get out on the water.

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 21, 22, 23 June 2019

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs, Weather 0 Comment

It is beginning to look a lot like summer, especially considering that summer officially starts today and from now on, the days will be shorter, just as the weather starts to get much nicer, bummer! We did have over a half an inch of rain this week which is always welcome this time of the year however we are still behind for the month by over ¼ of an inch and by almost four (4) inches for the year. By late summer this may come back to haunt us.

  • 21 June 500MB
  • 21 June Surface Analysis
  • 22 June Surface Forecast
  • 23 June 500MB
  • 23 June Surface Forecast
  • 24 June Surface Forecast
  • 25 June Surface Forecast

It will still be a great weekend to be on the water with the caveat that the Central and Eastern Straits of JdF, the San Juan and Gulf Islands, and Admiralty Inlet could see some breezy conditions especially in the late afternoon and early evening hours through Sunday. Plan your voyage accordingly.

The surface charts show the reason for this. We have a relatively weak and amorphously shaped high-pressure system offshore (1029-1032MB) and a weak (1025MB) high inland over Northern BC and SE Alaska. We also have a weak low-pressure system (1014MB) over Eastern Washington. These systems will move and change over the weekend which will cause the onshore flow to fluctuate in velocity but generally be increasing in the late afternoon and into the evening as a function of thermal heating inland. So while things may start out a bit light in the morning, the breeze will tend to increase through the day.

The 500MB chart for today also has an interesting feature with not one but TWO cutoff upper-level lows, one in the Gulf of Alaska and one in the Bering Sea. They won’t last long but they exist as a result of the wacky path the jetstream is on, going way north into the Alaskan and Canadian interior and then sweeping almost back to our coast before heading into mid-America. This should allow for the Pacific High to stabilize and strengthen as we get closer to July. However, before it does we may be brushed by a series of weak frontal systems which could bring southerly breezes to the coastal waters the early part of next week.

In the meanwhile, enjoy your weekend, use lots of sunblock, and be safe. 

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 14, 15, and 16 June. Perfect Weather.

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs, Weather 0 Comment
Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 14, 15, and 16 June. Perfect Weather.

No question, it is going to be a spectacular weekend over the Salish Sea. The surface chart shows a weak high-pressure system off the West Coast with a central pressure of 1023-1024MB. However, immediately to the west of this high is a weak low-pressure system (990MB) with a long cold front extending south to 30N. Don’t worry, it will have no effect on our weather. Check out the 500MB charts to see why.

  • 14 June 500MB
  • 14 June Surface Analysis
  • 15 June Surface Forecast
  • 16 June Surface Forecast
  • 17 June 500MB
  • 18 June Surface Forecast

The good news for TransPac racers is that this appears to be the start of the Pacific High becoming much more summer-like. In the meanwhile, this high will continue to drive an onshore flow down the Strait of JdF resulting in strong westerlies in the Strait in the late afternoon and into the late evening, easing after midnight. The breeze will ease as it comes down Admiralty Inlet and into the Central Sound. The Central Sound wind pattern will be light and variable in the morning, becoming northerly to about 10-knots in the afternoon.

And, there will be plenty of sunshine without the record high temperatures we had earlier this week. In other words, a perfect weekend to be out on the water, with lots of sunblock of course.

Have a good one.

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 9 June 2019 Van Isle 360 Winter Harbour to Ucluelet

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs, Weather 0 Comment
Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 9 June 2019 Van Isle 360 Winter Harbour to Ucluelet

This will be a very interesting leg which will be very challenging in that the fleet will be beating almost the entire leg. The models are not in agreement as to how much wind you’ll be beating into for the first six hours. The European model has as much as 30-knots from the southeast while the NAM and GFS models have 20-knots from the southeast but only as far as the Brooks Peninsula. After that, it is just a dead beat in 10-15-knots until about midnight tomorrow night when the breeze will drop to 10 knots or less after Estevan Pt. Between Tofino and Ucluelet the breeze will continue to drop to 5-knots or less and clock slightly from southeast to south.

  • 8 June 500MB
  • 8 June Surf Analysis
  • 9 June Surface Forecast
  • 10 June Surface Forecast

Todays Surface Charts show the reasons for this. We have a relatively weak high-pressure system (1031MB) centered off the Oregon coast and a weak low-pressure system (1001MB) at about 47N 160W with an attached cold front that moving towards the north end of Vancouver Island and Queen Charlotte Sound. It’s this cold front that will bring a prefrontal southeasterly to the race course. It’s just a question of how close it will actually get that will determine how much wind you’ll be beating into. The 500MB chart also helps explain the problem of trying to predict how close the front will come.  After this weak front passes to the north, the pressure gradient will ease, the breeze will drop and clock slowly to the south and then southwest. Todays Sat Pic shows the clouds associated with this front already approaching the north end of Vancouver Island.

I once again ran the numbers for the TP52’s and I have them finishing in about 26 hours. The course length is 138-miles and I have them sailing about 180-miles.

I hope some of you were able to get out and enjoy some of the great fishing Winter Harbour has to offer. A couple of years ago we caught enough salmon to feed the crew that night at the bbq. It was great.

Enjoy the race and be safe.

Bruce’s Briefs: Port Hardy to Winter Harbour, Van Isle 360 2019

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs, Weather 0 Comment
Bruce’s Briefs: Port Hardy to Winter Harbour, Van Isle 360 2019

This should be another very interesting but fun leg to Winter Harbour. Today’s chart shows the remains of that low-pressure system off of the coast of Washington, with a weak trough of low pressure drifting towards the coast, which is the reason for our unsettled weather around Seattle today. The great news is that after this low dissipates, a ridge of high pressure will build along the coast giving us a nice pressure gradient paralleling the coast.

  • 7 June Surface Forecast
  • 7 June 0900 EC HR
  • 7 june 1200 EC HR
  • 7 June 1500 EC HR
  • 7 June 1800 EC HR
  • 7 June 2100 EC HR
  • 8 June Surface Forecast

There will be light air for the start however by late morning a gentle onshore will build bringing 5-10 knots of northwesterly down the Goletas Channel. After the Nahwitti Bar, this will mean a close, fast reach to Cape Scott followed by a nice run to the finish outside of Winter Harbour. Running the numbers for the TP 52’s, I have them finishing around 2000hrs tomorrow night.

Once again, after the sun goes down the breeze will begin to drop along the coast which will mean a lighter air finish, be prepared for anything.

Have a great race and be safe.

Bruce’s Briefs: R2AK Leg 2, Victoria to Ketchikan 2019

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs, Racing, Weather 0 Comment
Bruce’s Briefs: R2AK Leg 2, Victoria to Ketchikan 2019

Today’s weather picture presents a complex pattern with a little bit for everyone. The current Surface Analysis has a series of three weak low-pressure systems strung across the Pacific Northwest from east of the Cascades to off of the Strait of JdF to off of the north end of Vancouver Island. The attached frontal system off of the center low will cross over the coast this afternoon and is already bringing rain to the south Sound. By tomorrow morning all that will be left of these systems is a weak low-pressure system (1013mb) that will be drifting off the central Vancouver Island coast. This system will not move very much over the next 24-48 hours.

  • 5 June Surf Analysis
  • 6 June Surf Forecast
  • 6 June 1200 EC HR
  • 6 June 1500 EC HR
  • 6 June 1800 EC HR
  • 6 June 2100 EC HR
  • 7 June 0000 EC HR
  • 7 June Surf Forecast 2

For R2AK this will mean a bit of a light air start in a south to southeasterly breeze. Great for the rowers and paddlers. By mid-afternoon, onshore flow will develop bringing a westerly down the Strait of JdF. This westerly will become southwesterly through the San Juan and Gulf Islands of 10-15 knots, great for the sailors. Then it will be time for the first big decision:  Which way to get north to Nanaimo, go inside and up Trincomali Channel exiting at Porlier Pass or outside through Boundary Pass and into the Strait of Georgia, an additional 10 miles? And then there’s the current at Porlier Pass. Racers will have the big flood of the day with them until about 2030hrs, Thursday night. Rowers and paddlers will simply go the shortest possible course.

I ran both routes for the Melges 32 and if they go up the inside (about 10 miles shorter) I have them making Porlier at 2000 hours and arriving at Entrance Island at midnight. If they went outside on the longer course they would sail an additional seven miles on top of the 10-mile longer course and they would arrive at Entrance Island at almost exactly the same time.

This basically agrees with two of the models which will have more wind in the Strait of Georgia but to stay in the wind you’ll have to sail up the east side by Tsawwassen and the Roberts Bank. If you do go up the inside it will be lighter but a much shorter distance. Do ya feel lucky? Well, do ya?

After Entrance, the southerly-southwesterly breeze will drop as the onshore flow works its way down the Strait of Georgia creating a zone of light air. After which the breeze will build to about 8-12 from the northwest and that will last until about mid-morning on Saturday when it will go light once again as racers approach Campbell River and the big tidal gate at Seymour Narrows. As in the past, if one boat can make it through and close the door on the fleet behind, that can be the entire race. 

Good luck, have a great race and be safe. I’ll continue to update the weather as long as my boss will let me.