So while the weather wonks have gotten us all wound up about the possibility of snow on Saturday night, Sunday night, and Monday morning, we’re just happy there’s a great possibility of wind for TYC’s Winter Vashon Race on Saturday. Currently (1300 hrs Friday), There’s plenty of breeze from West Point north so if you’re doing the delivery south to Tacoma, it’s really not going to be too bad. Plus, there was certainly a great party last night at TYC. It’s today that could be very entertaining.
(Editors Note: This is getting out late – early Saturday morning – so be sure to spread the word that Bruce’s words of wisdom are here for the taking)
It’s interesting that none of the models can really agree on what’s going to happen this weekend. While snow is good for headlines and readership, reality may be quite different. No question, it’s going to get colder over the next couple of days but measurable snow in the lowlands? I’m not so sure about that.
As you can see from the surface chart today we’ve got another monster low up in the Gulf of Alaska with an attached front aimed right at the coast from Seward south to Crescent City. This will blow thru today and leave us with a direct onshore flow for the weekend which bring moisture in from the Pacific to meet up with cold air that will be moving south from the interior of Canada. Yes, excellent conditions for snow, however they do have to be perfect for snow to occur in the Puget Sound area.
The best part of this is that it really does look like wind for tomorrow. Not too much to make it uncomfortable and as long as you finish before it about 1900 hours tomorrow night it should be a fairly consistent 5-15 knots of south-southwesterly breeze in the morning that may bump up slightly to 10-20 from the SW in the afternoon.
What does this mean for the race course? Actually there should be some wind, even in Colvos and not like last year’s drag racing from hole to hole, but we’ll see. As always the current will be going the right direction however there are rivers of current in Colvos so you’ll want to watch the COG and SOG to see if you can stay in the axis of the current. (The NOAA current predictions are here – look for Anderson Point) The breeze will be coming in from the coast so it will be puffy and shifty from the southwest in the Passage so watching the fleet will be key. Remember also that out of the 65 boats entered, there are 18 in the Cruising and Commodore Classes that will be starting about 30 minutes ahead of the PHRF fleet and there are some excellent sailors in those early starting classes.
You’ll be starting just before max ebb at the Narrows so the usual rules apply; get west as fast as you can from the start fighting to stay in clear air. Don’t get too close to the bottom end of Vashon and remember that stronger current at the bottom end of Colvos is on the west side.
As the puffs come across Colvos Passage you’ll want to soak down after the puff has hit and your speed starts to build, don’t soak down to fast. Stay in the puff and don’t get too close to the Vashon shore as the puff will lift off the water as it approaches the Island.
As you approach the turning mark off the north end of the Island, don’t mess with the ferries, and be ready for a long starboard tack to Point Robinson, visibility may be low so know the compass course to Point Robinson and don’t sail too far above rhumb line because there will be less wind closer to Vashon. Also have you’re barber hauler rigged for starboard tack since it will probably get more reachy the closer you get to Point Robinson and the further away from the Island you get.
From Point Robinson to the finish it should be an almost dead beat. Slack tide is around 1430 hours going to a max flood around 1630 hours. With days of southerly wind, there won’t be much help in the flood. It will however be more sloppy choppy out in what flood there is. Since the breeze is liable to be more from the southwest, you’ll want to tack towards the Island once you are south of Robinson . just don’t get in too close. When you are on starboard tack, the puffs will be lifts, the water will be smoother and you should gain on the boats that stay too far out.
Know precisely where the finish line and remember that in the southwesterly, you’ll be lifted as you come across Dalco and the current normally flows to the northwest along the slag pile.
Then there’s the delivery back to Seattle. Remember I mentioned it was going to get colder on Sunday. That’s because there will be a cold breeze coming down out of the Canadian interior right down into the Pacific Northwest which will mean a 15-20 knot northerly until late in the afternoon on Sunday. Perfect if you have to deliver the boat south to Olympia, not so good for going north to Seattle or Everett.
Have a great weekend and be safe out there.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
