Not much has changed since yesterday except that this storm will now hit the NW corner of Washington before going into Vancouver Island The baro is dropping rapidly and we are certainly having plenty of rain. The wind predictions from yesterday remain the same for today except for the San Juan Islands, Gulf Islands, Lower Strait of Georgia, Bellingham, Blaine, and Pt Roberts area which because the storm is moving further inland, could be hit a little harder. By that I mean 50-60 knots with gusts over 70. This will start around 1800 hours and last through 2200 hours.
Now I’ve got to go clean out my gutters and the street drain.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
As we suspected yesterday the trajectory for this storm has shifted to very slightly further offshore which will not diminish the impact to the coastal waters but will slightly reduce the impact to the interior of western Washington. Still, this is a dangerous storm and you shouldn’t back off on your preparations. Again, it will largely depend upon where you are as to the impact so I will try to break it down by area.
0700 Oct 14 Surface
0700 Oct 17 Surface
1700 Oct 14 Surface
0700 Oct 15 Surface
1700 Oct 15 surface
Overnight we had some impressive wind speeds around the Northwest. Diamond Pt/Discovery Bay 48 knots, Buoy Juliet Alpha at the entrance to Straits 40 knots, and Destruction Island 59 knots. Today we’ve already seen 35 at West Point and 53 at Cape Disappointment.
Take a look at the Surface charts and note how fast these storm systems are moving towards us and then compare the forecast picture from yesterday to today and note that the system has moved offshore, slightly. It currently is projected to come onshore at Barkley Sound on Vancouver Island, after 1800 hours tomorrow evening.
Time/Date Location Wind Speed Gusts Direction
Fri/1300 Newport-NeahBay 30-40 55 SSW
Oly-Sisters 30-40 50 SSE
1600 Newp-NB 25-35 50 SSW
Oly to Halibut Bank 25-35 45 SSW
Amphitrite-Race Rocks 25-35 45 WSW
1900 Newp-NB 20-30 35 WSW
Olympia- Pt Townsend(PT) 15-25 35 SSW
Cattle Pass-Nanaimo 15-25 35 SW
Amphitrite Pt-RR 25-30 35 WSW
From about 2100 Friday to 0400 Saturday a slight break in the action over the Northwest.
Sat/0700 Coos Bay-Columbia River 30-40 50 S
PtNoPt-Patos Isl 20-30 40 SE
1100 Coos Bay(CB) – Westport (WP) 25-35 45 E
Noon Coastal Waters 40-50 60+ SSE
Oly-Admiralty Inlet 15-25 30 ESE
1300 Coastal Waters 40-50 60+ SSW
Oly-PT 20-30 45 SSE
Eastern Straits Of JdF 30-40 50 ESE
San Juans (SJI)-Strait Georgia 30-40 50 ESE
1500 Coastal Waters 40-50 60+ SE
Oly-PtNoPt 15-25 35 SE
PtNoPt-Nanaimo 25-35 40 SE
Race Rocks-Tofino 25-35 45 SE
1800 Coastal Waters 40-50 60+ SSW
Oly-PtNoPt 30-40 50+ S
PtNoPt-Sisters 40-50 60+ SE
Sheringham-Barkely Snd 40-50 60+ SSE
This is when the Low should pass into Vancouver Island between Barkley Sound and Uclulet.
2100 Coastal Waters 30-40 50+ WSW
Oly-PtNoPt 30-40 50+ S
PtNoPt-Sisters 40-50 60+ ESE
Tofino-Race Rocks(RR) 30-40 50+ WSW
2400 Coastal Waters 25-35 40+ SW
Oly-West Point 10-20 30 SSW
PtNoPt-Halibut Bank 20-30 35+ S
0300 Sunday
Newport-Westport 20-30 40 SSW
Oly-PtNoPt 10-20 30 S
PtNoPt-Halibut Bank 20-30 40 S
Hein Bank-Sheringham 5-10 WSW
Sheringham-Amphitrite 20-30 35 SW
0600 Newp-NeahBay 30-40 50 S
Oly-Elliott Bay 10-20 25 S
Elliott Bay-PtNoPt 15-20 25 SSE
PtNoPt-Halibut Bnk 25-30 35+ SSE
Sheringham-Brooks Peninsula 15-20 25 ESE
As you can see, this is as we said a prolonged wind and rain event. The problems with wind combined with a high tide will be that as boats rock up and down in the marinas, the fenders will ride up and on to the dock which will leave a nasty mark on any hull. In addition, there will be chafe on the mooring lines which will lead to breakage. As my dear old Dad said, “There is no substitute for a close visual inspection. You also have to see what you’re looking at.”
For boat owners and marina operators this will mean walking the docks to see what’s going on and working ahead of potential problems.
I’ll get another one of these out tomorrow morning.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
No question, this will be a prolonged rain and wind event. The good news is that the projected track will keep it out of the interior of Western Washington and keep it off the coast. That doesn’t however diminish the potential effects that we may see in the Salish Sea. It will really depend on where you are so I’ll try to break it down as much as I can.
Storm as it is projected to look at 7pm Saturday.
The first event will begin to show up late tonight and into tomorrow morning with winds in the central Sound 25-30 knots ESE and the south coast of Washington 30-40 knots of ESE. By 0200 look for 30-40 knots of southerly from Alki, over Elliott Bay and into the north Sound. By 0300 The entire coast will experience 25-30 with gusts to 40, the same for the central Sound north to Bellingham Bay and this will last until late afternoon and into the early evening on Friday.
The second and stronger event will start early Saturday morning and will be marked by a rapidly dropping barometer. Be sure to set it because this will probably be the lowest we’ll see this year. The other indication that this will be a fairly strong system is the that you will see that the frontal wind, instead of being southeasterly will be a pronounced due easterly. When this occurs, if you’re on the water, it’s time to seek shelter ASAP. The good news is that with high tide at around 0400 and 1645 this will drive the water off the coast and reduce the amount of storm surge. We’ll see the breeze start to build by late morning and remain out of the east and east-southeasterly direction.
By noon on Saturday the south coast of Washington will see ESE 45+ knots, the Straits from Race Rocks to the west 30-40 knots of easterly and the Central Sound 20-30 knots from the east-southeast. By mid afternoon from Newport, OR to Westport you will see a steady 50 knots with gusts to 60 of SSE, slightly less north of Westport. In the Straits from Race Rocks to Neah Bay there will be 35-45 knots of easterly with higher gusts. In the central Sound 15-25 knots of ESE.
Thursday a.m. surface
Friday p.m. surface
Saturday a.m. surface
Monday a.m. surface
Into the late afternoon and early evening the Coast will see 35-45 knots, the entire Straits will have 30-40 from the ESE. The central Sound 30-35 from ESE. By sometime between 1800 and 2000 hrs the front will have pased which will bring the wind around to the west-southwest on coast and from the Columbia River to Westport expect 45-50 knots with higher gust. From Westport to Neah bay 35-45 with higher gusts. In the Salish Sea From Anderson Island to Port Townsend SSE 35-45 knots. By mid evening from Olympia to the Strait of Georgia look for 35-45 from the south, in the Straits from Pt. Townsend to RR ESE 35-40.
Around midnight on Saturday the post frontal effect of west-southwesterly breeze will in place over the entire area. In the Straits from Race Rocks to Whidbey Island 45-50 knots of WSW, NB to RR WSW 30-40. In the Salish Sea from Olympia to Pt Townsend SSW 25-35.
Early Sunday morning it will start to ease to SW 20-30 along the coast, 25-30 from Olympia to Anacortes and from Anacortes north to the Strait of Georgia 25-40 of SSW.
There’s still time to check the boat and add those extra mooring lines and fenders.
I’m headed down to Elliott Bay Marina and Shilshole this afternoon to scope things out and I’ll have another update for you tomorrow around noon. A huge thank you to Kurt Hoehne for his help on all of this.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
