Bruce’s Briefs

Our year of wacky weather continues and once again we can just feel lucky we don’t live in Buffalo, NY with 4-FEET of lake effect snow expected by the end of the weekend. Yikes.

November is traditionally the wettest month of the year and with it being another La Niña year it should be maybe a bit wetter than normal. Not this year. So far we’ve only had 1.67” of rain compared to an average of 3.54”. Year to date we’ve only had 29.56” inches compared to an average of 30.85” while last year at this time we had 36.08” of rain in the gauge. If we don’t get any rain until Tuesday that will set a record for the greatest number of consecutive days without rain in November. If you look at the surface charts for today and out into next week our Coastal Buffer Zone may weaken that front to the point we get no rain on Tuesday. The next chance of rain will then be towards the end of next weekend.

Today’s surface chart and sat pic show an amazingly clear area over the Pacific Northwest. It usually doesn’t get this clear even in the summer. Remember also, that the white in the Cascades and Olympics, is snow and not clouds! The Sat Pic also shows the next low and attached frontal system out in the Pacific with excellent clarity. The surface chart is particularly interesting with a very high(1046mb), high-pressure system over lower inland BC. Earlier in the week, it was forecast to be as high as 1058mb.  While very high, it is nowhere near the record of 1083.8mb set in Agata, Siberia. It is however the reason why we’ve had some very cool nights with a strong, cold flow out of the Fraser River Valley. The surface chart also shows a very effective wall of high-pressure systems running from the Bay area to well up into Alaska. This is what will keep us with below normal precipitation for at least the next 10 days.

Plenty of sailboat racing going on this weekend with the CYC Turkey Bowl being the biggest event and with the best chance of wind, at least on Saturday. As you can see from the Sunday surface chart, the pressure gradient eases considerably. So Sunday looks very light just about everywhere and that matches with the surface forecast charts. It looks light on Saturday for the Le Mans Race in Gig Harbor as well as the Squaxin Island Race out of Olympia.

For the Turkey Bowl on Saturday expect 5-8 knots of NNE in the mid-morning and then building to 8-12 knots by noon and holding for the rest of the day. Just about perfect but it will be chilly. At least no rain or snow.  

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)

For dinghy sailors in the Pacific Northwest, The WVYC Pumpkin Bowl Regatta is a very big deal with 100+ Opti’s out last weekend and 104 ILCA & doublehanded boats out this weekend. Unfortunately, it is the fall and we are finally transitioning from our dry and smokey summer to our more normal cooler and wetter conditions. In these transitional periods, the wind can be a bit frustrating as the frontal systems are still being degraded as they come onshore. Conditions offshore this weekend for the west side of Vancouver Island and the West Coast of Washington will be cranking on Saturday with 25 to 30-knots of Northwesterly breeze. Sunday will see the breeze transition from NE to SE as another stronger frontal system approaches the coast.

For the race area off of WVYC, Howe Sound, and Passage Island this will mean the following: From 0800 until about 1300 hrs expect winds to be light and variable. At around 1300-1400hrs expect a nice 5-10 knots of WNW breeze to be coming down the Strait of Georgia and into the Race Area. This will hold until about 1800 hrs when the breeze will begin to ease.

For Sunday from 0800 until about 1100 expect a southerly breeze of 4-6 knots. From 1100 until about 1500hrs the breeze will back to the SSE and build slightly to 5-10 knots. From 1500hrs to 1800hrs the breeze will back to the SE and build into the 8-12 knot range.

Today’s surface analysis chart shows the weak (1007mb) low-pressure system offshore with its attached frontal systems. This will move through the area today with a building high-pressure system offshore. Saturday the pressure gradient will ease over the Salish Sea with a weak trough of low-pressure running from Eastern Washington to Vancouver Island.

The Sunday surface forecast chart (48hr) shows the next stronger low-pressure system moving from the Gulf of Alaska to SE Alaska with a frontal system that will bring more wind and more rain by midday Monday and into Tuesday.

For boaters in the Puget Sound Basin on Saturday, you will have a nice northerly in the morning but easing to light and variable by mid-afternoon.

Sunday will be a much better day for sailing with a consistent 5-12 knots of southerly the entire day.

Enjoy the weekend! 

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)

Right now at the Meadow Point Marine Weather Station in West Seattle, the Air Quality reading is 272, YUK! You can’t even see down the hill.  

Weather reporting stations around the area are showing some promising signs with a light westerly in the Straits and stronger westerlies east of the Cascades. We are however still showing an easterly flow on the west side of the Cascades into the Puget Sound Basin and that will be the problem as it will keep the smoke entrenched in the basin.  

We have a weak high-pressure system off the coast and a weak cold front just to the north of us. However, off of the north end of Vancouver Island, we already have 25 to 30-knot northwesterlies and that will slowly work its way down to us. We expect to have a nice 15 to 20-knot westerly down the Straits to Whidbey Island by 2100hrs this evening. While the onshore is showing in the Straits and in the Cascade Passes it will remain weak in the Puget Sound Basin at least until about mid-day tomorrow when we will get our first significant rain.  This will help to finally scrub the air and send the smoke back to Eastern Washington.   

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)

It may be boring but it is still interesting. So we will certainly set a new record for the greatest number of days with a high temp of 70°F or greater in Oct. Sunday we may even hit 80°! Yikes.

It looks like the Sloop Tavern YC will have a nice turnout for the Fall Regatta tomorrow and there may even be a nice northerly. The only problem will be that it will be smokey and hazy with poor air quality. Wind will start light from the NNE and depending on how clear it is and how much heating occurs in the Central Sound, there may be a slightly stronger northwesterly in the afternoon.

We have the same situation as the last two weeks with a weak high-pressure system offshore, a weak thermal trough along the coast, and a weak high pressure in Eastern Washington. This creates an offshore flow which is what is bringing the smoke from the Bolt Creek fire into the Sound. Take a look at the Sat Pic for today and you will see that very clearly. The surface forecast chart for tomorrow and Sunday show little change in the pressure gradient other than it will continue to ease which will bring the high temperatures for Sunday.

The surface forecast chart for Sunday and Monday do show a weak frontal system approaching the coast however that will degrade as it gets closer. The other interesting feature is a developing low-pressure system at 40N 175W which will strengthen to 960mb and rapidly intensify on the 17^th and 18^th producing hurricane-force breeze as it moves into the Gulf of Alaska. The jet stream and the weak high off our coast will combine to keep that system away from us. It does however have quite an attached cold front which could bring our first rain into the area on or about the 21^st or 22^nd of October. We will see. We know summer had to end sometime!

Have a great Weekend!

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)

You could almost cut and paste last week’s Brief for this weekend. We still have a trough of low-pressure running down the east side of Vancouver Island and then down the west side of the Sound and Hood Canal. This gives us high pressure on the east side of the Cascades as well as high pressure offshore. This gives us a weak offshore gradient which is still bringing the smoke from the Bolt Creek fire into the Salish Sea and very poor air quality. You can clearly see the smoke from Bolt Creek in today’s Sat Pic.  Currently, at the Meadow Point Marine Weather Station in West Seattle, the reading is 126 and solidly in the red. At least we can finally sort of see across the Sound even with a thick band of haze right on the water.

Today’s surface analysis chart shows the systems described above and then in the Central Pacific we have three relatively weak low-pressure systems with the strongest one being 999mb at about 40N and 155W and going nowhere fast. The reason for this is that the jet stream is still well north and this low is associated with an upper-level cutoff low this is going to stay in the same place for the next couple of days. This will keep our weather pretty much the same for the entire weekend. The next possible change in our weather could happen late Monday or early Tuesday when a weak front will move over the area. Regardless, there won’t be much, if any, rainfall associated with this system.

As you look at the surface forecast charts there isn’t much pressure gradient over the area so you might expect winds to be light and variable. The good news is there will be a light northerly that will build over the day to maybe 10-12 knots. Sunday, not so much.

Much like last weekend, tidal currents won’t be much of a factor.

West Point Currents

0824      Slack

1324      Max Fld   .96knts

1612      Slack

1742      Max Ebb   .39knts

Sunday

1012      Slack

1412      Max Fld   .95knts

1700      Slack

Use plenty of sunblock, and enjoy the weekend. 

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)

It is going to be another lovely weekend on the water even if the overnight hours will be a bit on the cool side. The surface analysis chart for today shows a thermal trough developing along the coast and a mish-mash of pressure systems. Overall, this will bring a northerly flow to the Salish Sea with light wind except in Admiralty Inlet and the Central Sound which may start with five knots of northerly but by noon should have 8-12 knots.

This really looks good for the Foulweather Bluff Race. It might be a light northerly for the start which again this year will be just north of Kingston. This is fortunate because it will take a while for the northerly to get across the Sound to Edmonds. However, as the fleet beats to the north, the breeze will slowly build to 8-12 knots.

The other good news is that tidal current won’t be a major factor this year.

Current at Foulweather Bluff Buoy:

0636     Max Flood         1.31 knts

1112     Slack   

1230     Max Ebb           .16 knts

1418     Slack

1818     Max Flood         .55 knts

If the Long Course is selected, the J-105’s would be around in about 5.5 hours. Plenty of time to get back to the party at Kingston.

The other charts of interest are the Surface Forecast Charts for 48, 72, and 96 hours as well as the upper level (500mb)charts. As they show a persistent low-pressure system off the coast however since the jet stream is quite far north, there is nothing to push it in our direction. This is also the reason why we will have more of warmer than normal temps. Still no sign of any major precipitation over the next seven days.

Enjoy the weekend!

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)

Our very pleasant fall will continue this weekend and then temps will warm back up slightly next week for a continuation of our Indian Summer. There is plenty of sailing going on this weekend with the added bonus of wind in the Central and North Sound. In fact, Admiralty Inlet to Tacoma could see a northerly breeze in the 15-20 knot range from 1000hrs tomorrow morning until sunset tomorrow night with that pattern repeating on Sunday.

The area that could catch some boaters by surprise will the Strait of Georgia and the northern San Juan Islands which will have 15-25 knots of northwesterly breeze coming down the Strait of Georgia. This will ease slightly Saturday evening and then rebuild on Sunday.

This northerly flow will keep the breeze in the Strait of JdF fairly light all weekend. There will also be northerly breeze along the coastal waters on both days of the weekend.

Overall, this pattern will keep our air quality good with the bad news being that we are still well behind on rainfall for the month with no significant rainfall on the horizon. Unlike the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico which are going to get hammered (again) by Tropical Storm Fiona which because it is moving very slowly will dump a lot of rain on these islands. It remains to be seen if Fiona will make it to the Continental USA but it deserves watching.

The interesting feature of today’s charts is the 48 and 96hr upper air charts which show the formation of an upper-level cut-off low-pressure system off the northern and central California coast which is directly over a weak surface low-pressure system. The undulation in the jet stream shows why we are getting the cooler temps this weekend and the warmer temps next week. A fairly typical fall pattern.

Enjoy your weekend.   

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)

Not that fall is a bad thing but cooler weather is on the way just not with the usual moisture. The reason for the heat this weekend is a thermal trough that will be developing along the coast and higher pressure inland which will cause an offshore flow. This will bring a strong easterly flow through the gaps in the Cascades and as this flow develops,  the downslope flow will create compressional heating. By late Sunday it will all be gone as the trough becomes a weak (1000MB) low-pressure system off of the central Oregon Coast. 

Today’s sat pic is spectacular as the new, high-resolution picture allows us to zoom in to our area and clearly show the Cedar Creek fire in central Oregon and the offshore flow driving the smoke out over the Pacific. It also shows the smoke from Eastern Washington blowing over the central Sound.  Air quality is already deteriorating on the East side of Lake Washington. Then if you compare the sat pic with the surface forecast and the 500MB chart you will see that there is nothing to move this low-pressure system very far or very fast.  As a result, we will have a strong southerly breeze along the coast that will travel inland to the Sound on Sunday. This will persist until Monday when this low will start to weaken and drift away from the coast.

For the inland waters, we can expect 15-20 knot northerlies in the Central Sound south to Pt. Defiance. As southerlies develop along the coast,  the northerlies will ease over Central and South Sound before becoming southerly early Sunday morning. For Admiralty Inlet and the East end of the Strait of JdF conditions will remain light for the weekend.

Sunday will see the start of a downward trend in temperatures as we head towards next weekend. Rain chance will increase into the low 20% range by next Friday. So really, plenty of nice weather to continue boating into our Indian Summer.

Enjoy the weekend!

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)