Bruce’s Briefs

Bruce’s Brief – Grand Prix and Weekend Weather 22-23 Oct

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs, Weather 0 Comment
The radar picture on Friday.
The radar picture on Friday.

Certainly not as interesting as last weekend but it will still offer challenges to boaters this weekend. The big regatta’s are the Sloops Race Your House and then their Fall Regatta on Sunday. Big turn out and it will of course be lots of fun.

This will probably be another case of you should have been here yesterday as we will have near perfect conditions today and not so good for Saturday The Friday morning surface chart shows a nice low off of SE Alaska with another low forming ofåf of the mouth of the Columbia River. This afternoons radar shows a fairly strong band of rain showers moving over the coast and headed our way for this evening. Once this moves through a weak high pressure system will form over central Oregon and move north into southern BC during the day on Saturday. This will probably result in light and variable winds for the afternoon.

Sunday looks to be a better day as another front approaches the coast. As we saw last weekend the speed and strength of this front can vary a great deal as it approaches the coast. Keep your fingers crossed.

 

 

Tides at West Point for the weekend

Saturday

0712                        Flood                       .92 knots

1030                        Slack

1154                        Ebb                            .33 knots

1606                        Slack

1936                        Flood                       .43 knots

Sunday

0818                        Flood                       .88 knots

1136                        Slack

1254                        Ebb                            .29 knots

1636                        Slack

With the nice southerly we’ve had all day today and certainly plenty of rain this week in addition to the rain we’ll get tonight you can expect the slack water to occur earlier, the ebb to start sooner and run stronger. You’ll also see that band of muddy, freshwater from the Duwamish running around West Point which will be a great indicator of where you’ll find the strongest part of the ebb. It has been so muddy along the north side of Elliott Bay that is has messed up squid jigging at the fishing pier near the grain terminal. Then again I guess when you have seven inches of rain so far in the month of October compared to a normal of about 1.75 inches, it has to go somewhere.

I also included the 96 hour (Tuesday) surface forecast because it’s a very interesting chart with lots of activity headed our way this coming week.

Enjoy the weekend.

Ed. Notes: Sorry I didn’t get this up yesterday afternoon, but I was actually out racing in SYC’s Grand Prix Regatta. Great racing conditions and there are some very close classes, including ORC 1 where Smoke and Glory split races and in Class 3, where I was sailing, which has 3 boats tied at 5 pts after Friday. 

Also: Bruce reminds boaters and marine industry folk that next week is the NMTA Marina and Boatyard Conference  in Bremerton. “It’s not free but it will definitely be worth it,” he says, and I agree. I’ve been to several and there’s much to learn and many people to meet. -Kurt

Bruce’s Brief for Saturday, October 15 Storm

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Bruce’s Brief for Saturday, October 15 Storm

Not much has changed since yesterday except that this storm will now hit the NW corner of Washington before going into Vancouver Island The baro is dropping rapidly and we are certainly having plenty of rain. The wind predictions from yesterday remain the same for today except for the San Juan Islands, Gulf Islands, Lower Strait of Georgia, Bellingham, Blaine, and Pt Roberts area which because the storm is moving further inland, could be hit a little harder. By that I mean 50-60 knots with gusts over 70. This will start around 1800 hours and last through 2200 hours.

Now I’ve got to go clean out my gutters and the street drain.

Stay safe

Bruce’s Brief: WEATHER UPDATE: Friday afternoon to Sunday morning

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Bruce’s Brief: WEATHER UPDATE: Friday afternoon to Sunday morning
1800 Saturday
1800 Saturday

As we suspected yesterday the trajectory for this storm has shifted to very slightly further offshore which will not diminish the impact to the coastal waters but will slightly reduce the impact to the interior of western Washington. Still, this is a dangerous storm and you shouldn’t back off on your preparations. Again, it will largely depend upon where you are as to the impact so I will try to break it down by area.

Overnight we had some impressive wind speeds around the Northwest. Diamond Pt/Discovery Bay 48 knots, Buoy Juliet Alpha at the entrance to Straits 40 knots, and Destruction Island 59 knots. Today we’ve already seen 35 at West Point and 53 at Cape Disappointment.

Take a look at the Surface charts and note how fast these storm systems are moving towards us and then compare the forecast picture from yesterday to today and note that the system has moved offshore, slightly. It currently is projected to come onshore at Barkley Sound on Vancouver Island, after 1800 hours tomorrow evening.

Time/Date                 Location                    Wind Speed             Gusts             Direction

Fri/1300                      Newport-NeahBay   30-40                           55                    SSW

Oly-Sisters                 30-40                           50                    SSE

1600                            Newp-NB                   25-35                           50                    SSW

Oly to Halibut Bank                                     25-35                           45                    SSW

Amphitrite-Race Rocks                               25-35                           45                    WSW

1900                            Newp-NB                   20-30                           35                    WSW

Olympia- Pt Townsend(PT)                         15-25                           35                    SSW

Cattle Pass-Nanaimo                                     15-25                           35                    SW

Amphitrite Pt-RR                                          25-30                           35                    WSW

From about 2100 Friday to 0400 Saturday a slight break in the action over the Northwest.

Sat/0700         Coos Bay-Columbia River   30-40                           50                    S

PtNoPt-Patos Isl                                              20-30                           40                    SE

1100 Coos Bay(CB) – Westport (WP)          25-35                           45                    E

Noon Coastal Waters                                       40-50                           60+                  SSE

Oly-Admiralty Inlet                                          15-25                           30                    ESE

1300 Coastal Waters                                       40-50                           60+                  SSW

Oly-PT                                                                 20-30                           45                    SSE

Eastern Straits Of JdF                                     30-40                           50                    ESE

San Juans (SJI)-Strait Georgia                  30-40                                 50                    ESE

1500 Coastal Waters                                        40-50                           60+                  SE

Oly-PtNoPt                                                        15-25                           35                    SE

PtNoPt-Nanaimo                                              25-35                           40                    SE

Race Rocks-Tofino                                           25-35                           45                    SE

1800 Coastal Waters                                       40-50                           60+                  SSW

Oly-PtNoPt                                                       30-40                           50+                  S

PtNoPt-Sisters                                                    40-50                           60+                  SE

Sheringham-Barkely Snd                                40-50                           60+                  SSE

This is when the Low should pass into Vancouver Island between Barkley Sound and Uclulet.

2100 Coastal Waters                                         30-40                           50+                  WSW

Oly-PtNoPt                                                          30-40                           50+                  S

PtNoPt-Sisters                                                    40-50                           60+                  ESE

Tofino-Race Rocks(RR)                                    30-40                           50+                  WSW

2400 Coastal Waters                                         25-35                           40+                  SW

Oly-West Point                                                  10-20                           30                    SSW

PtNoPt-Halibut Bank                                        20-30                           35+                  S

0300 Sunday

Newport-Westport                                              20-30                           40                    SSW

Oly-PtNoPt                                                             10-20                           30                    S

PtNoPt-Halibut Bank                                           20-30                           40                    S

Hein Bank-Sheringham                                       5-10                                                     WSW

Sheringham-Amphitrite                                     20-30                           35                    SW

0600 Newp-NeahBay                                          30-40                           50                    S

Oly-Elliott Bay                                                      10-20                           25                    S

Elliott Bay-PtNoPt                                               15-20                           25                    SSE

PtNoPt-Halibut Bnk                                            25-30                           35+                  SSE

Sheringham-Brooks Peninsula                          15-20                           25                    ESE

 

As you can see, this is as we said a prolonged wind and rain event. The problems with wind combined with a high tide will be that as boats rock up and down in the marinas, the fenders will ride up and on to the dock which will leave a nasty mark on any hull. In addition, there will be chafe on the mooring lines which will lead to breakage. As my dear old Dad said, “There is no substitute for a close visual inspection. You also have to see what you’re looking at.”

For boat owners and marina operators this will mean walking the docks to see what’s going on and working ahead of potential problems.

I’ll get another one of these out tomorrow morning.

Be safe out there.

 

 

 

 

 

Bruce’s Brief: Details for the Coming Storm

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs, Weather 2 Comments
Bruce’s Brief: Details for the Coming Storm

No question, this will be a prolonged rain and wind event. The good news is that the projected track will keep it out of the interior of Western Washington and keep it off the coast. That doesn’t however diminish the potential effects that we may see in the Salish Sea. It will really depend on where you are so I’ll try to break it down as much as I can.

sat-pm
Storm as it is projected to look at 7pm Saturday.

The first event will begin to show up late tonight and into tomorrow morning with winds in the central Sound 25-30 knots ESE and the south coast of Washington 30-40 knots of ESE. By 0200 look for 30-40 knots of southerly from Alki, over Elliott Bay and into the north Sound. By 0300 The entire coast will experience 25-30 with gusts to 40, the same for the central Sound north to Bellingham Bay and this will last until late afternoon and into the early evening on Friday.

The second and stronger event will start early Saturday morning and will be marked by a rapidly dropping barometer. Be sure to set it because this will probably be the lowest we’ll see this year. The other indication that this will be a fairly strong system is the that you will see that the frontal wind, instead of being southeasterly will be a pronounced due easterly. When this occurs, if you’re on the water, it’s time to seek shelter ASAP. The good news is that with high tide at around 0400 and 1645 this will drive the water off the coast and reduce the amount of storm surge. We’ll see the breeze start to build by late morning and remain out of the east and east-southeasterly direction.

By noon on Saturday the south coast of Washington will see ESE 45+ knots, the Straits from Race Rocks to the west 30-40 knots of easterly and the Central Sound 20-30 knots from the east-southeast. By mid afternoon from Newport, OR to Westport you will see a steady 50 knots with gusts to 60 of SSE, slightly less north of Westport. In the Straits from Race Rocks to Neah Bay there will be 35-45 knots of easterly with higher gusts. In the central Sound 15-25 knots of ESE.

Into the late afternoon and early evening the Coast will see 35-45 knots, the entire Straits will have 30-40 from the ESE. The central Sound 30-35 from ESE. By sometime between 1800 and 2000 hrs the front will have pased which will bring the wind around to the west-southwest on coast and from the Columbia River to Westport expect 45-50 knots with higher gust. From Westport to Neah bay 35-45 with higher gusts. In the Salish Sea From Anderson Island to Port Townsend SSE 35-45 knots. By mid evening from Olympia to the Strait of Georgia look for 35-45 from the south, in the Straits from Pt. Townsend to RR ESE 35-40.

Around midnight on Saturday the post frontal effect of west-southwesterly breeze will in place over the entire area. In the Straits from Race Rocks to Whidbey Island 45-50 knots of WSW, NB to RR WSW 30-40. In the Salish Sea from Olympia to Pt Townsend SSW 25-35.

Early Sunday morning it will start to ease to SW 20-30 along the coast, 25-30 from Olympia to Anacortes and from Anacortes north to the Strait of Georgia 25-40 of SSW.

There’s still time to check the boat and add those extra mooring lines and fenders.

I’m headed down to Elliott Bay Marina and Shilshole this afternoon to scope things out and I’ll have another update for you tomorrow around noon. A huge thank you to Kurt Hoehne for his help on all of this.

Early Warning – Big Wind and Rain Coming to the Salish Sea

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Early Warning – Big Wind and Rain Coming to the Salish Sea
friday-14-octsurface-forecast
96-hour forecast issued yesterday.

If you liked wet and wild you’ll love what’s coming. Remember a couple of weeks ago I pointed out what could happen with the jet stream and post tropical depressions? Check out post tropical Songda headed right at us this weekend. WOW!

WEATHER ALERT! This is NOT a drill.

Don’t say we didn’t try to warn you. Starting tonight along the coast you can expect high winds and plenty of rain. This however is just the start of what will be a prolonged high wind and rain event lasting through Sunday. Starting on Thursday evening the South coast of Washington and the San Juan Islands can expect 30+ knots of southeasterly breeze, with Bellingham Bay, Pt Townsend, and Admiralty Inlet seeing 40+ knots.

By Friday morning this will extend to the central Sound from Tacoma to Everett seeing 25-30 knots. Remember also that this a time of unusually high tides which combined with high winds can wreak havoc in marina’s. On the coast the highs will be at noon and midnight. In Seattle on Thursday the high will be at 1537, Friday morning 0400 10’, Friday afternoon 1611 11.6’, Sat morning 0445 10.7 feet, Sat afternoon 1645 11.9’ .

Saturday morning on the coast will see the arrival of the next front, with high winds coming up again in the San Juan Islands. By midmorning the winds will be building in the central Sound, and Admiralty Inlet. Just before noon the south coast will be seeing 50+ knots of southerly , with winds over the central Sound, Admiralty Inlet and San Juan’s rising to 30+ from the south. This will continue through evening with the strongest winds, 60+ knots, being over the north coast, Westport to Neah Bay. Expect winds of 30-45 knots from Olympia to the Straits of Georgia with potentially higher winds in Admiralty Inlet and Port Townsend.

As I said, this is a prolonged high wind and rain event with the potential to knockout power, take down trees, cause lowland flooding, generally make a mess of things. If you haven’t already, it’s time to add extra mooring lines and fenders. If you’ve left your roller furling sails up, it’s time to get those down and into your sailmaker for their annual inspection and maintenance.

Be safe.

Ed. Note: I believe Bruce, and took the genny off Slipstream already. Here are the warnings from a couple of other guys who know a lot about weather in the Northwest:

David Burch’s thoughts here.

Cliff Mass’s Take on the upcoming event is here. 

Last Saturday’s PSSC Blast

You could see in the Friday morning surface chart that a new low was forming and in the Saturday morning chart it was going to rapidly move over the area. By Friday night the gradient was deepening way more than expected and by Saturday morning the NWS had issued small craft warnings for the Sound and Admiralty Inlet.

If you checked the gradient over the Northwest the Portland to Bellingham difference was 3.2 millibars  which tells you to expect 30 knots over the central Sound. In the eastern straits, Protection Island, Dungeness Spit it was northeasterly at less than 5 knots. Ah yes, micro-weather in the Pacific Northwest.

Bruce’s Weather Brief October 8-9 Special for PSSC

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Bruce’s Weather Brief October 8-9 Special for PSSC

If you’ve been waiting for Mother Nature to give the boat a freshwater rinse, you don’t have long to wait. Both Saturday and Sunday look to be a bit on the wet side. Last night up north in the San Juan’s we had some pretty good breeze, 55 knots at Smith Island, 56 knots at Lopez and today in the central Sound we had 35 knots a couple of times at West Point.

We can probably expect more of the same for Saturday just not quite so much wind in the Islands. For the CYC’s PSSC the morning will start off on the light side, 4-6 from the SE with frontal passage about mid day. This will be followed by SSW breeze of 8-12 building to 15-20 by mid afternoon and easing slightly by late afternoon.

The strongest breeze will be to the north of Kingston on up to Port Townsend in Admiralty Inlet with a strong post frontal breeze from the SSW along the coast.

By Sunday morning the breeze will come around to north and be in the 5-8 knot range until it goes away in the mid afternoon. Sorry about that.

For tides in the Race area:

0700      Max Flood           1.09 knots

1036      Slack

1400      Max Ebb                 .37 knots

1706      Slack

Sunday

0748      Max Flood            1.05 knots

1136      Slack

1418      Max Ebb                 .34 knots

1800      Slack

 

So what does this mean in the Race Area off of Shilshole? Since we’ve had a fair amount of rain and a stead southerly breeze you will find that the flood tide is somewhat diminished by a wind driven southerly surface current and the freshwater coming out of the Duwamish and the Ship Canal. For the morning races there will still be a an advantage to holding starboard off the line in order to get the knock that will occur closer to the beach. How far in you’ll want to go will of course depend upon where they place the weather mark. As you get closer to frontal passage, baro rising, ceiling lifting, some patchy clearing to the southwest, this will warn you that the shift from the southeasterly to the south-southwesterly is coming. The ebb will start first on the beach so watch your cog and sog especially if you are on the north course as the flood will last slightly longer mid Sound.

Before you leave the house check the wind at West Point and what’s going on with the Ferry weather. Also check the surface baro readings around the Northwest (http://www.atmos.washington.edu/cgi-bin/latest.cgi?sfcplots-wwa) to see what sort of gradient we’ll be dealing with for the morning and then if there’s enough time between races check the VHF wx to see how that gradient has changed. Remember when you check this chart the barometric pressure is the green numbers and it’s the last three digits. For instance on this chart Bellingham (KBLI) says 162, that means it is actually 1016.2 millibars. Boeing Field (KBFI) 173 means 1017.3 millibars.

It’s always a good idea to wear your life jacket when out on the water and if it has been a while since you’ve been out in 15+ knots of wind why not have a quick review of safety procedures before you leave the dock on Saturday morning.

Also, you might check the surface chart for Tuesday and notice what is over the Aleutian Islands. Yes, that is a monster low pressure system, 966 millibars with plenty of 40-50 knot winds on its south side. So how does this compare to Hurricane Matthew? When Matthew turned into a Cat 4 storm south of Jamaica and Haiti it was almost 800 miles across and had a low pressure reading of 939 millibars. The Aleutian low is about 1200 miles across. So Matthew is smaller, much lower pressure so more tightly wound hence the higher winds.

Have a great time and be safe.

 

Bruce’s Brief: Weekend weather for October 1-2, Foul Weather Bluff and Thermopylae

Kurt Hoehne Bruce's Briefs, Racing, Weather 1 Comment
Bruce’s Brief: Weekend weather for October 1-2, Foul Weather Bluff and Thermopylae

Yes, it really is that late and Halloween is just around the corner, scary. It has been a great week and this weekend starts the first of the great fall regattas with the Foulweather Bluff Race out of Edmonds and the Thermopylae Regatta at the Royal Victoria Yacht Club.friday-radar

As you can see from the surface charts, the weather picture is still not settled. This afternoon’s surface chart shows a dissipating front extending from a very weak low pressure system (1017mb) off the coast headed towards us. This is confirmed by the coastal Doppler radar. This probably means we’ll stay dry for the Husky game tonight however there may be showers around tomorrow morning and Sunday. Regardless, there simply isn’t much rain in our future.

The other interesting feature is this very elongated high pressure system over the Pacific. At 1039mb it is still fairly strong however when they are anything but round they can be easily pushed around by low pressure systems and the jet stream. Note the jet stream for today and then 96 hours out. Mother Nature doesn’t like big bends so as you can see that bend in the 564mb line goes away and the jet stream takes on a much more direct shot into the Pacific NW. This should be of interest to all of us because in the years following an El Niño event and going into a neutral or minor La Niña phase, like this year, remnants of typhoons can hitch rides on the jet stream and come into the Pacific Northwest as high wind events. Remember the Columbus Day storm in 1962? This was a remnant of Typhoon Freda. Nothing out there now. However, southeast Asia has been hit by two Super Typhoons recently and you can bet we’ll be tracking where those remains are going. Remember also that Typhoon/Hurricane season doesn’t end until 1 December.

So what does this mean for the Foulweather Bluff Race? Unfortunately it looks like a real mixed bag of light southerlies for the start, with slightly more wind west of Scatchet Head. This will gradually drop to light and variable by mid afternoon, becoming a light westerly before switching back to a 5-10 knot southerly in the early evening. Try to finish before 1400 hours.

Tides at Admiralty Inlet

0935      max ebb                2.9 knots

1300      slack

1535      max flood             1.8 knots

1800      slack

Slightly better news for Victoria as the southeasterly could be in the 15 knot range and last until mid afternoon before it becomes light and variable. Sunday looks like a light, drainage northerly until a weak westerly comes down the Straits in the late afternoon.

Have a great weekend and if you’d like a customized forecast for your event, just drop me a note.

Ed. note: Some of you race organizers should take advantage of Bruce’s offer. Competitors have a much better time if they have a sound basic weather outlook to work from (or disagree with!) and it sets a tone for an event and future ones of good seamanship and competition. I made the Bruce email link to my email address. Trust me, I’ll get anything you send me to him – I certainly don’t want the pressure of forecasting if I’ve got Bruce to lean on!

 

Bruce’s Brief: Weekend weather Sept 17-18th

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs, Weather 0 Comment

We all knew it had to end and sure enough, it looks like this is the weekend where you’ll need to be thinking about changing those mooring lines over to dealing with our winter southerlies. As you can see from the 500MB chart, the jet stream, the heavy 564 line is now almost a straight line going right across the Pacific and curving north just off our coast and into SE Alaska. This will allow frontal systems to have a more direct shot at the Pacific Northwest. The current surface forecast shows just such an event headed our way on Saturday.

We are already seeing rain on the Doppler Radar at Langley Hill on the coast which will make landfall this evening and be fairly widespread over Puget Sound by tomorrow morning. This will mean southerly to southeasterly breeze in the Sound with light and variable breeze in the Straits. By mid afternoon tomorrow this will all start to transition to a more post frontal situation with a westerly coming down the Straits (15-20 at Race Rocks) while we’ll have a westerly flow through the Chehalis Gap which will then be a southwesterly breeze in the South Sound. What does that sound like? Let’s not see all the same hands.

Yep, a classic fall convergent zone which will set up from 1500 through the early evening with plenty of rain from Seattle north.

Sunday looks better but still with scattered showers around. Winds will be light in the morning however by late afternoon we have 10-15 knots of northwesterly, so don’t put the summer mooring lines away yet just be prepared for anything.

Bruce’s Brief: Weekend Weather September 10-11

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs, Weather 0 Comment
Bruce’s Brief: Weekend Weather September 10-11

Just when you thought summer was screeching to a halt, Mother Nature once again surprises us. Saturday looks pretty nice and just about perfect for power boaters, not so good for sailors until mid to late afternoon when a northwesterly will finally fill down the Sound. Sunday will be distinctly cooler as the remnants of a front pass over the Northwest Saturday night and into Sunday morning. Sunday morning will be cloudy however that will gradually burn off as the day goes on. Next week looks absolutely stunning with highs in the mid to upper 70’s. Welcome to Indian Summer in the great Pacific Northwest.

The Straits will display the usual pattern of breeze (10-15 knots) just east of Race Rocks which will gradually build to 20+ knots of westerly from mid afternoon on. This will fill down the Sound into the evening and then start gradually backing off into dawn on Sunday morning.

Sunday morning the Straits will remain fairly light and variable while in the Sound a northerly will start to come down in the early afternoon and build to around 10 knots by Sunday evening.

All in all, a perfect weekend to be out on the water. So go out, boat safely, and have a great weekend. As you’ve probably noticed, the leaves are turning early this year and squirrels are pretty active bulking up for the winter. All of which seems to indicate a cooler and wetter winter than normal. The NWS will have their big confab the end of this month with their forecast for the winter and I’ll provide you with those results.

Bruce’s Weather Brief: Don’t Let Today’s Rain Keep You at the Dock for Labor Day Weekend

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs, Weather 0 Comment

Don’t be dismayed by the rain this morning over the Sound, it’s not going to last. There will be scattered showers over the area through tomorrow but generally diminishing. As you can see from the surface charts the Pacific High is starting to weaken and that is allowing these weak frontal systems to sweep over the area. The upper air charts continue to feature that cutoff low that has persisted the entire summer over BC and SE Alaska. Summer is coming to an end but for Labor Day weekend it won’t be all bad.

For today you’ll have southerlies if you’re headed up to the San Juan Islands with some convergent zone activity from Edmonds to Everett. By Saturday morning the winds will be generally light and variable becoming westerly in the Straits and northerly in the Sound by mid afternoon. This pattern will repeat itself on Sunday with more clearing and hopefully more sunshine.

For Monday you can expect light southerlies in the Sound in the morning slightly stronger breeze in the San Juan Islands. This will decrease as the afternoon approaches with winds becoming northerly in the Sound and westerly in the Straits.

As I said, not all bad and at least we’re not trying to do anything on the East Coast or Hawaii this weekend.

Enjoy and have a safe weekend!