Yes, it really is that late and Halloween is just around the corner, scary. It has been a great week and this weekend starts the first of the great fall regattas with the Foulweather Bluff Race out of Edmonds and the Thermopylae Regatta at the Royal Victoria Yacht Club.
As you can see from the surface charts, the weather picture is still not settled. This afternoon’s surface chart shows a dissipating front extending from a very weak low pressure system (1017mb) off the coast headed towards us. This is confirmed by the coastal Doppler radar. This probably means we’ll stay dry for the Husky game tonight however there may be showers around tomorrow morning and Sunday. Regardless, there simply isn’t much rain in our future.
The other interesting feature is this very elongated high pressure system over the Pacific. At 1039mb it is still fairly strong however when they are anything but round they can be easily pushed around by low pressure systems and the jet stream. Note the jet stream for today and then 96 hours out. Mother Nature doesn’t like big bends so as you can see that bend in the 564mb line goes away and the jet stream takes on a much more direct shot into the Pacific NW. This should be of interest to all of us because in the years following an El Niño event and going into a neutral or minor La Niña phase, like this year, remnants of typhoons can hitch rides on the jet stream and come into the Pacific Northwest as high wind events. Remember the Columbus Day storm in 1962? This was a remnant of Typhoon Freda. Nothing out there now. However, southeast Asia has been hit by two Super Typhoons recently and you can bet we’ll be tracking where those remains are going. Remember also that Typhoon/Hurricane season doesn’t end until 1 December.
So what does this mean for the Foulweather Bluff Race? Unfortunately it looks like a real mixed bag of light southerlies for the start, with slightly more wind west of Scatchet Head. This will gradually drop to light and variable by mid afternoon, becoming a light westerly before switching back to a 5-10 knot southerly in the early evening. Try to finish before 1400 hours.
Tides at Admiralty Inlet
0935 max ebb 2.9 knots
1300 slack
1535 max flood 1.8 knots
1800 slack
Slightly better news for Victoria as the southeasterly could be in the 15 knot range and last until mid afternoon before it becomes light and variable. Sunday looks like a light, drainage northerly until a weak westerly comes down the Straits in the late afternoon.
Have a great weekend and if you’d like a customized forecast for your event, just drop me a note.
Ed. note: Some of you race organizers should take advantage of Bruce’s offer. Competitors have a much better time if they have a sound basic weather outlook to work from (or disagree with!) and it sets a tone for an event and future ones of good seamanship and competition. I made the Bruce email link to my email address. Trust me, I’ll get anything you send me to him – I certainly don’t want the pressure of forecasting if I’ve got Bruce to lean on!
Kurt grew up racing and cruising in the Midwest, and has raced Lasers since the late 1970s. Currently he is a broker at Swiftsure Yachts. He has been Assistant Editor at Sailing Magazine and a short stint as Editor of Northwest Yachting. Through Meadow Point Publishing he handles various marketing duties for smaller local companies. He currently is partners on a C&C 36 which he cruises throughout the Northwest. He’s married to the amazing Abby and is father to Ian and Gabe.
Well, Heck, Bruce.. you were mostly right… Weather Friday night was stunning. This was pretty important for the Husky game (And, in particular, the Husky Marching Band) The victory made a lot of people happy, and the trombone section stayed dry.. Both good things..
As it came to pass, there was a significant easterly component at the start, and the southerly increased steadily throughout the day. We raced the short course.. A few gybes on the way north (I went too far west in search of wind and current (somehow I blame you) ) and one tack and that was it. We finished with the winds in the mid-teens. The boats doing the long course had winds in the mid 20s. It was a real hoot.