Bruce’s Briefs

Winter is not Quite Done with Us Yet….

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs, Weather 0 Comment
Winter is not Quite Done with Us Yet….

While the sales folks at the radio and TV stations want to scare us with dire forecasts, this looks to be just another strong winter storm that will thrash the coastal waters. As you can see from the surface charts our Coastal Buffer Zone will once again do a pretty good job of keeping the strongest breezes offshore and along the coast by driving that 973MB low-pressure system to the NNW when it starts to interact with the coast.

That’s not saying the winds will be light over the Sound. By tomorrow afternoon expect winds 25-30 knots with gusts to 40 over the central and south Sound. The San Juans and coastal waters could see 30-35 knots with gusts near 50. For the central and south Sound expect the breeze to start dropping by 1700 to 1800 hrs tomorrow afternoon. The breeze will last into the early morning hours of Saturday in the San Juans, Gulf Islands, and Coastal areas.

The real problem will be that with all the rain we’ve had this will be enough wind to bring down some more trees and cause some landslides as well as power outages.

If you’ve had the boat out recently it is probably a good idea to add the extra winter mooring lines and additional fenders sometime tomorrow morning.

We’ll have another update for you tomorrow around noon. (Ed. note, we’re all lucky Bruce is keeping tabs on this for us and keeping his head while many of those in the media may be losing theirs….)

Bruce’s Brief April 1-2, Sloop Tavern Blakely Rocks Benefit Regatta

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Bruce’s Brief April 1-2, Sloop Tavern Blakely Rocks Benefit Regatta

WOW! 117 boats turning out for this great event! In fact, it’s so good even editor Kurt Hoehne will be out in the mighty Slipstream, be forewarned. Unfortunately, the models are not in agreement at all except on one thing and that is that there will be more wind in the morning than in the afternoon. The early starters will have an advantage as will the boats with really tall rigs i.e. Crossfire and Smoke. The taller the rig, the more wind there will be off the water.

(Ed. Note: Folks, this is a great race and The Sailing Foundation is a great organization for promoting sailing. If you’re not sailing, consider donating anyway. At some point tomorrow I’m going to try to do a little live video to the sailish.com Facebook page. We’ll see how that goes. See you out there! And what Bruce meant to say was, be sure to pass Slipstream to leeward.  – Kurt)

Tides are interesting and I did double check the tides so the times are correct. The reason for the big disparity in the afternoon will be apparent if you look at the chart.

Tidal currents at West Point

0806      Slack

0942      Max Ebb                 .48 knots

1200      Slack

1818      Max Flood            1.12 knots

For the most part, we will be sailing in relatively little current, just pray for more wind. The other interesting feature is the IR satellite image which shows that we will also have some moisture headed our way, for a change. Kidding. Yet another month of near-record rainfall comes to an end with double the “normal” amount for the month. April will be much the same.

As you look at the surface charts you can see the problem developing as the next system passes with the center of the low staying to the south of us and really opening the pressure gradient, which won’t leave us with much wind. The post frontal will result in stronger breezes coming down the Straits however if it does come down the Sound it won’t be much.

In the starts before noon look for 5-12 knots of wind from the south with a slight southeasterly along Shilshole. This will be a pretty standard race compounded by the problem that in light air, the zone of dirty air extends further aft from the boats in front of you. Figure that in 5-8 knots of wind the zone will extend 15-20 times the mast height astern of the boat in front of you. Clear air in this size of the fleet will be highly prized and should be fought for all the time. In the starting area because it will be so close to the Shilshole breakwater it will pay to hold starboard off the start line to get to the breakwater before you tack. Don’t sail into the restricted area as marked by the buoys off the south end of the breakwater. Hold port tack to West Point and then beat feet to the west and Bainbridge Isl. Again, focus on staying in clear air and don’t tack back to starboard after West Point because the ebb will be flowing along the Magnolia Bluff. It was definitely there last weekend and with the rain this week, I suspect it will be there again this weekend.

Moisture headed our way. Again.

Once you get west and work your way up to the Rock, start watching the boats that have rounded ahead of you to see who is doing well. The southerly breeze will start to lighten up from the east first so staying slightly west, i.e. do the port pole set and delay your gybe to stay in more wind.

The next problem will be the rounding at Meadow Point because it is at this mark that the fleet tends to compress and folks have problems getting their kites down, getting the headsail sheeted properly, all the time while headed towards the beach with all kinds of boats screaming for shore room. Negotiate early and often and make sure there is only one person on the boat doing your inter-fleet communication. Plan your approach to the finish and watch as there may be more wind outside which may offset the port tack lift on the inside.

While the central and south Sound will have light air there is a gale watch in effect for the eastern end of the Straits which will last through tomorrow and may downgrade to a small craft advisory for Sunday.

Have fun stay safe, stay dry and enjoy the weekend!

Bruce’s Brief for March 25-26 and Three Tree Point Race

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Bruce’s Brief for March 25-26 and Three Tree Point Race

It’s the last race of the Center Sound Series and only a week to go before the Sloop Tavern Blakely Rock Benefit Race. Not only is the weather warming up, so is the racing and so is the cruising. For the first time in a long time, there were boats headed across the Sound to Blake Island this morning. Those folks are the smart ones as they are testing their boats before they go on the longer cruises later this spring or summer. This will give them plenty of time to make arrangements with their boatyard, boat maintenance facility or sailmaker to get any problems taken care of before the late spring/summer rush puts you way down the list. Just a thought….

(Ed. Note: We’re trying something new to us, a forum! If you want to discuss Bruce’s brief, the race or the series, try going here. You’ll have to create a login in the sidebar at the right. Of course, keep it civil and productive. Also, please help spread the word about this weather brief and the forum.)

While we’ve had yet another fairly wet week, tomorrow actually looks fairly decent with minimal rain and a nice breeze for racing even though we are going south of Alki. However, don’t get all excited and break out the lawn chairs and BBQ quite yet. Be sure to look at the 28 March Surface Forecast Chart and note that fairly nasty 973MB Low-Pressure system in the mid-Pacific with the label Hurricane Force. Yes, it will slightly degrade as it comes across the Pacific however it’s on track to get to the Pacific Northwest by next weekend. We’ll be watching that one.

Tidal Current at Sewage Point, whoops, I mean West Point.

0918      Slack

1224      Max Flood            .85 knots

1512      Slack

1718      Max Ebb                 .43 knots

2006      Slack

Since the tides are fairly minimal and mostly favorable we’ll focus on the wind and the course. The front on today’s chart rolled through our area between 0600 and 0700 this morning and we are now in a post-frontal situation which will hold through Saturday and see the offshore wind go from due southerly now to southwesterly and then westerly tomorrow before backing to the south-southeast on Sunday. The good news is that when the wind finally does force its way down the Straits into Admiralty Inlet, we should be finished. Keep your fingers crossed. The models are currently in agreement that we should have consistently south-southwesterly breeze over the entire course. Look for 8 to 15 in the starting area, which should build as you go across Elliott Bay to 10 to 20 and then ease to 10 to 15 from Alki to Three Tree Point. You’ll be sailing primarily on starboard tack and remember that the shortest course is right down the east side of the Sound so start with the headsail in the starboard groove so you can take a short hitch to port, hoist the new jib, and then tack back to the favored starboard tack to drop the old headsail.

Once again, since you’ll be sailing through the slower boats in front of you, find the clear air and don’t spend time sailing in dirty air.

At Three Tree Point, give the Point plenty of clearance. If you go aground here, your friends will never let you forget it. You’ll want to have all your spin gear set up for a port pole, port tack hoist and get this done before you leave the dock so you can keep everyone hiking all the way to the mark.

The run back to the finish should be fairly straight forward with no need to gybe. As you sail up the Sound be sure to watch the boats in front to see if the breeze goes forward near the top end of Vashon and Blake Island before coming aft again north of Alki. Have a headsail tee’d up just in case. This is also a leg where a staysail will pay dividends so talk about that in the morning before you leave the dock. Also, once everything is set and working, send the navigator below to check the wind reports on the VHF to make sure the northerly isn’t coming down the Sound ahead of schedule.

On the run back after about 1400 hours look for the breeze to start to drop from 10-15 to 6-10 knots. It will pay to be an early finisher in your fleet.

Sunday look for a strong pre-frontal southeasterly to develop in the eastern Straits while the breeze will stay less than 10 knots over the central and south Sound and oh yeah, the rain will return on Sunday as well.

Be safe and have a great day on the water.

So how fast will Crossfire go around the course tomorrow? Based upon a course of 30 nm and Crossfire sailing 31.78 miles they should finish in 2 hrs 53 min and 40 secs. WOW!

 

Want More Bruce?

Kurt Hoehne Bruce's Briefs, Weather 2 Comments

One of the great pleasures in creating sailish.com is working with Bruce Hedrick on the weather briefs. Obviously, there’s a wealth of knowledge there. Moreover, he genuinely loves sailing and racing and wants to share that with everyone.

But some of us want more Bruce. Maybe we’re thinking about that Vancouver Island circumnavigation or the big trek north to Glacier Bay or is it a good window to do a delivery down the coast to California? 

Bruce Hedrick

Fortunately, there’s a way to do it. Bruce’s advanced weather analysis and routing can be tailored to your timing and to your specific vessel. And while Bruce’s blood has a high percentage of baggywrinkle, much if not most of his routing is for motor yachts heading off on long voyages. Especially when it comes to going north of Puget Sound, using both weather and tidal analysis can extend the range of those precious tanks of diesel. Since most routing involves speaking with the skipper or navigator twice a day by sat phone, go, no-go decisions when it comes to open water crossings can be made with a very high degree of confidence. There’s no easier way to ruin a summer cruise than to get caught out in nasty weather.   

If you’re not familiar with Bruce’s qualifications, they’re a great mix of academic and practical. He and his brother Gregg raced on the family’s Columbia 50 in the 1960s. In the oh-so-active 1970s, his family campaigned the Chance 50 Warrior with great success. Along the way, he earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” 

Bruce spent nearly two decades as Managing Editor for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, was the chairman of the Board of Trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association from 2013 until 2015 and currently serves on the Board.   

Over the years Bruce has navigated everything from The Perry 68 Icon to the Ranger 29 Ed. In 2015 he won class in TransPac as navigator aboard the Santa Cruz 50 Allure. 

Want more Bruce? Email him here.

 

Bruce’s St. Patrick’s Day Brief March 18-19 and a look at Gig Harbor Islands race

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Bruce’s St. Patrick’s Day Brief March 18-19 and a look at Gig Harbor Islands race

For a while this week it looked like we would get two consecutive weekends of great sailing. Then again it is the Pacific Northwest. The models were converging for a while however by this morning the topography of the Northwest was wreaking havoc on consistency. But the weekend is here, as is the Gig Harbor YC Islands Race, so let’s take a look.

Tidal Current taken from the North end of the Narrows, Center Stream.

0948      Slack

1330      Max Ebb                 3.01 knots

1700      Slack

1924      Max Flood            2.61 knots

Since the current always flows north in Colvos Passage, the real key is to watch your COG and SOG and when you’re going north, find the axis of the current. When going south, avoid the axis when you can.

The reason why this weekend will be so challenging for forecasters is that once again a few miles difference in how the low interacts with the coast will make a big difference in the wind over the Sound. As you can see from the charts for today there are two lows off our coast, both with attached frontal systems and both moving to the northeast. The low currently off of northern California will have it’s front over us early tomorrow morning. If it tracks further offshore because of our coastal buffer zone then the post frontal onshore flow will travel further down the Sound creating a northerly scenario in Colvos. If it holds its current path the northerly will be delayed and Colvos will end up being a dead zone between the post frontal southwesterly breeze coming through the Chehalis Gap and the northerly filling down the Straits and then down Admiralty Inlet. If it passes closer to the coast and is slowed we could have a stronger onshore flow through the Chehalis Gap that would keep a southwesterly flow over the race course until late afternoon.

Regardless of which hand we are dealt it’s going to be an interesting race and because the GHYC always puts on a great event, especially before and after the race, it’s bound to be a lot of fun.

Almost regardless, the start will be downwind in a southwesterly of 5-12 knots. As you work your way up Colvos, the breeze will tend to back and probably back off to the 3-5 knot range. It’s as you get closer to the north end of Colvos that it could get very interesting as a convergent zone develops from Blake Island south to somewhere between View Park and Anderson Point. The transition may even have the breeze backing around to the east before becoming northeasterly and then northerly. Foredeck crews, navigators and trimmers are going to be busy but at least it will be raining.

When dealing with these transition zones it will be important for the foredeck crews to remember to keep putting the headsail up in the port groove because once you get back into the southwesterly in Colvos, it will start out light and then slowly build. You’ll have long starboard tacks and short port tacks as you keep working to the west side of Colvos to stay out of the ebb tide. That way if you have to do a change you’ll have more time to set it up on the starboard tack. In Colvos the puffs will be lifts on starboard tack so main trimmers and drivers will be working especially hard.

I had some fun last week with predicting elapsed times  (and the final tally here) for some of the boats so I’ll roll the dice again, however, I have a much lower confidence level for this forecast because of the changing parameters. This week I’ll use one of my favorite boats, the J-160 Jam which is currently predicted to go around the course in 4 hrs and 2 min. So we’ll see….. Have a great race.

Bruce’s Briefs for March 11-12 and Scatchet Head Race

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Bruce’s Briefs for March 11-12 and Scatchet Head Race

Overall it appears that our cold winter is finally coming to an end. That’s the good news. It doesn’t, however, mean our wet winter is coming to an end. We are still just under five inches of rain ahead for the year and the way the 500MB picture is setting up, it doesn’t appear that this will be slowing down anytime soon.

Wind Speed/Air Pressure at West Point

The models for this weekend are coming together so nicely it’s almost scary. They almost never converge this closely at 24 hours out. Plus last night we had yet another example of how much fronts can shift as they approach the coast and how this can have a dramatic effect on the isobar orientation and the actual wind we get. The TV weather guys were warning of breeze to come in about 0100 hrs this morning with gusts to 50 mph. It actually showed up, at least in West Seattle, at around 2300 hours and the peak gusts were closer to 35 mph. In the overall scheme of forecasting, I would say that’s still fairly close. The front appeared to hit our coastal buffer zone and deflect up into Vancouver Island which had the effect of lessening the compression in the isobars and slightly reducing wind speed. We are now very much in a post-frontal situation which has the barometer rising rapidly, the wind coming around to the SW in the Sound staying at 20-25 knots and a very strong westerly coming down the Straits. This will ease as the day progresses.

Let’s look at the tidal currents for the race course first before we delve into the wind on the course. I use the currents at Foulweather Bluff from the Station ID PCT 1566 rather than 1611 as they are closer to time and direction at the Scatchet Head Buoy. The velocity of the current can vary quite a bit depending on how much water is coming down the Snohomish River and then flowing out of Possession Sound on the ebb. Not much rain, the current on the ebb will be about .5 to .75 the value at Foulweather Bluff. Lots of rain, like yesterday it will be closer to .75 to 1.0 the value.

Foulweather Bluff

0729      Max Ebb                 1.12 knots

1130      Slack

1324      Max Flood            .61 knots

1557      Slack

1929      Max Ebb                 1.3 knots

West Point

0848      Max Ebb                 .21 knots

1012      Slack

1254      Max Flood            .79 knots

1518      Slack

1724      Max Ebb                 .46 knots

With the amount of freshwater coming into the Sound you can expect the wind generated surface current to make the ebb start sooner, last longer and run at a slightly higher velocity.

As I mentioned above, when the models are this close this early, there is a tendency to develop a plan for how to sail the race and then not change the plan as actual conditions develop. This can get you into a lot of trouble especially in this race. It’s fine to develop the plan, just use all available data tomorrow morning before you go head out and then keep your head out of the boat to watch was actually happening with the weather.

Right now it very much looks like you’ll probably start on starboard and then immediately gybe to port to get west of the rhumb line and ride the slightly stronger ebb with slightly more wind to get north and then gybe to make a starboard approach to the mark. Remember that if you get up there in the ebb and the ebb is running at the mark, the current velocity at the mark can be much higher in the last ¼ mile setting you to the west, so put a bit in the bank to allow for the set. Also remember that if the barometer has started to fall and the wind is east of due south, hoist the jib in the starboard groove because you’ll be on a long port tack to get over to the west side of the Sound where the flood starts sooner and runs stronger all the way to Jefferson Head. Ideally, you won’t tack for the finish until you are confident you are laying the finish line. The reality is that as you come across the Sound on starboard tack, you’ll probably be headed as you get closer to Shilshole. If you end up below the finish line, hold starboard tack until you can lay the finish on port. Again, remember, that as you get closer to the Shilshole and the finish, the outfall from the Ship Canal will be stronger.

For a little fun this week, I ran projected times around the course based upon two different models (an idle mind is the devil’s playground) for Crossfire, a J-125, a J-109, a J-30 and a Cal 40 just because I have those polars. Remember, this is 24 hours out, I probably don’t have the correct sail inventories and these polars are probably not current.

 

Vessel                     Elapsed Time                        Miles Sailed       

Crossfire                 3h 01m 16s                           29.00

J-125                        3h 41m  38s                          29.51

J-109                        4h 25m 06s                          29.27

J-30                           4h 50m 49s                         29.42

Cal 40                      4h 50m  29s                          30.63

 

It will still be fun to see what happens.

For Sunday it looks like a light southerly in the south Sound, a 15-20 southerly in the central Sound and later in the day 20+ of south easterly in the north Sound and in the east end of the Straits.

Be safe and have a great time.

Ed. Note: We’re going to start up an e-newsletter, so sign up, for just weather or the whole enchilada. Yeah, it’s free. 

 

Bruce’s Blakely Rock Race Brief and Weekend Weather for the Pacific Northwest March 4-5

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Bruce’s Blakely Rock Race Brief and Weekend Weather for the Pacific Northwest March 4-5

Yet another very interesting week for weather and for once, Seattle ends up with more snow than Minneapolis for the month of February. Speaking of snow, yes, it could happen tomorrow and this could send all the aerodynamic theorists on your boat into an absolute tizzy. You know who they are, the ones talking about attached or laminar flow, stalling and of course, the Kutta condition. When you sail in the snow you can finally see all of these very nicely and very visibly represented. Let the arm waving explanations begin!

Since there is little to no agreement in the models about what we’ll have for tomorrow, we’ll just start with the tides and there won’t be much of them.

West Point

0818      Slack

1000      Max ebb                .42 knots

1518      Slack

1835      Max flood             .89 knots

 

As the saying goes when it comes to racing in Puget Sound: You should have been here yesterday!

The chart of current conditions at West Point shows that this morning we had a gust to 35 knots and while the baro is still dropping, the wind is backing off. An unfortunate trend that will continue through tomorrow. The surface charts show the reason for this as we’re going to have frontal passage this afternoon and into the early evening. The chart for Saturday morning shows the front well into Eastern Washington leaving a large gap in the isobars for Puget Sound and an onshore flow of cool, ok COLD, unstable air.

Almost all the models show wind from the south in the 5-8 knot range for the start however by noon they start to widely diverge with the wind in some cases dropping into the less than 4-knot range and clocking to the southwest. Other models show it dropping to the 4-6 knot range and backing to the south-southeast. By 1400 hours one model has the breeze glassing off south of West Point and becoming light and variable over the rest of the course but starting to fill back in by 1800 hrs. Trust me, we’ll all be very wet and cold by that time and should be back at the Club for some well-deserved warming fluids.

While the tide may only be around .5 knots, that will still be enough to send you towards the east shore from the starting line. There will still be a very localized southeasterly from the starting area south to West Point. This will mean that you can get both port tack lifts and stay out of the tide. Once you get to West Point it will be time to hold port tack and beat feet to the west. This is where you’ll want to be very careful to find a lane of clear air because remember, the slow boats are starting first and as the fleet converges, the wind will get very chopped up. If you’re sailing low and slow and unable to get to target boat speed you’re probably sailing in dirty air. Don’t hesitate to take some short hitches to get back into clear air, you simply can’t afford to sail in dirt all the way across the Sound. Your tactician should be thinking two to four tacks ahead to keep you out of trouble.

There are still no points for hitting Blakely Rock even though people try that every year so know the limits. If this is the first race of the year for you, plan on a bear away set, pole to port and then take plenty of time to get set up for the gybe. There will tend to be more wind to the west so holding to the west of rhumb and staying in touch with your competition is probably the conservative way to play this leg.

While on this leg if you start getting dramatic puffs from the southwest, that is usually an indication that the breeze is going to drop and potentially die. If the breeze stays from the south and backs slightly to the south-southeast, sail in those puffs and stay on the favored gybe to the mark, sailing the long gybe first. This is also NOT going to be the Miller Time leg. Trimmers and that means everyone is going to have to constantly play the kite, raise and lower the pole, trim the main, and keep the boat at top speed all the time. Remember also that when you get a puff from ahead, don’t sail off immediately, trim for max speed and only after the boat has gotten up to speed do you try to work the boat down.

From the leeward mark to the finish, if it’s light and from the west-southwest, just keep the boat moving towards the finish, holding on starboard tack but staying in the clear air. Don’t let too many people accumulate in the cockpit and it’s not all bad to get folks below deck and on top of the keel. On the downwind leg, check the lay of the finish line so you know which end is favored. Remember that with all the rain, the ebb will last longer and in the vicinity of the finish line, it might be a little stronger because of the outfall from the Ship Canal so watch COG and SOG as you get close to Meadow Point.

Good luck, have a great race and don’t forget those daffodils for when you round Blakely Rock.

Ed. Note: A forecast like this wouldn’t have dampened Kelly O’Neill’s enthusiasm. In fact she’d light up the Sound! Daffodils, all. 

 

Bruce’s Brief: Pacific Northwest Marine Weather Weekend for February 25-26

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Bruce’s Brief: Pacific Northwest Marine Weather Weekend for February 25-26

Another absolutely stellar week of weather in the Pacific NW just passed with more rain, snow, lightning and possible funnel clouds. If you were watching the Doppler radar, it was one of the more interesting weeks. It is however not that unusual for this time of the year and if you can say one thing about the weather, it is that spring is definitely on its way, maybe a little early but after all this rain I think we can all agree that we deserve a little break. Besides, if you’re racing in CYC’s Center Sound Series it’s a great time to go out for a little practice session before the Blakely Rock Race kicks off what is probably the most popular medium distance racing in the Pacific Northwest next weekend.

500MB Charts:

The Climate Prediction Center came out with their latest and it looks like we are still in for cooler and wetter than “normal” weather for March and April. The good news is that in this pattern it usually means a warmer than normal summer. Like go out and buy air conditioning for the house warmer? Probably not that much warmer. The other side of that is we will also still continue to build snowpack in the mountains which will help reduce the fire hazard going through the summer. Let’s keep our fingers crossed for that!

Surface Charts:

This weekend doesn’t look great for sailing however it will be pretty nice just to be on the water. Plus, with 5-8 knots of wind, that’s the perfect amount of wind to get the crew reacquainted with racing before next weekend. The only significant breeze (15+ from the south) in the Sound will be over Saturday night and into Sunday morning. If you’re anchoring out, make sure you’ve got plenty of scope out and your swing radius will clear the other boats in the anchorage.

The most interesting feature on the surface charts for this weekend is that 1039 MB high-pressure system off our coast today which will deepen and strengthen over the weekend to 1045 MB on Saturday. This will move away from the coast on Sunday allowing a weak, 1008 MB low-pressure system to invade the Pacific Northwest late Sunday and into early Monday. To give you a better idea of just how strong this high-pressure system is, just check out the 500 MB charts. What you see is the classic springtime pattern of the northern hemisphere starting to heat up because of longer days and that helps to strengthen the Pacific High. As it builds it becomes more capable of deflecting low-pressure systems to the north of the Pacific Northwest. Just don’t get too excited because as you look at the last day of the month you’ll see another significant low-pressure system coming right out of the Gulf of Alaska and aiming right at us at it weakens that high-pressure and pushes it to the south.

Needless to say, we’ll have an in-depth look at the weather for next weekend specifically for the Blakely Rock Race. Remember to pick up some daffodils to leave at Blakely Rock in honor of the beloved Kelly O’Neil Henson as you go around next Saturday.

Be safe and enjoy the weekend!

 

 

Bruce’s Weather Brief for February 18-19 and Toliva Shoal Race!

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Have we had enough rain yet? Apparently not as we are currently sitting at the 6th wettest February ever and there’s a ways to go before the end of the month. All we need is about 2 more inches of rain to be the wettest and that could happen this coming week.

As you can see from the current surface chart there’s not much happening over the Pacific Northwest however California is going to take another major hit this weekend. We will feel some of the residual from that system starting on Saturday afternoon and some moisture will make it up to the Sound. It still won’t bring much wind with it. Unfortunately, the models are pretty much in agreement that it’s going to be light most of the day on Saturday. The problem will be that the wind offshore with be northerly with no gradient over the Sound. As the day goes on, the wind offshore will become more westerly, still light as in 10 knots or less. And then there will be some flow through the Chehalis Gap and into the South Sound. As the wind offshore backs around to the southwest that will bring more of a southerly component to the wind over the south Sound, still probably 10 knots or less.

The good news is that the tide will be with the Toliva Shoal Race fleet and there are plenty of options for the race committee to shorten the course at any number of marks along the way. Besides, the gracious hospitality back in Olympia is not to be missed especially after the race.

Tides for Dana Passage:    

Saturday:

0500      Slack

0712      Flood     1.14 knots

1030      Slack

1342      Ebb          1.96 knots

1800      Slack

2024      Flood     1.25 knots

As usual, getting out of Budd Inlet will be challenging. The key will be to be near the starting line, and not be swept over with the ebb which will probably start early because of all the runoff from this week’s rain. Then find a lane of clear air and aim down the course trying to find the axis of the current while staying in the puff. If it’s 0 gusting to ½ knot don’t let too many people accumulate in the stern which increases the wetted surface area and slows the boat down. You’ll also want to be rigged for reaching with barber haulers and flying the drifter or wind seeker. Trimmers will definitely earn their keep tomorrow.

From Boston Harbor to Itsami Ledge don’t get too close to the south side of Dana Passage. The southerly breeze or what there is of it, will be coming over the land and not touch down on the water until ¼ to ½ way off the beach. Watch the smart people in front of you in the classes that started ahead and track who goes where and how they’re doing. Not always easy but worthwhile if you can make it work.

There will be a lot of water coming out of the Nisqually Flats and that can sometimes create a current that flows to the northwest from Lyle Point to Treble Point on Anderson Island so watch your COG and SOG after Buoy “3” and before your turn to go north to Toliva Shoal. You will also be able to see this current as it will be distinctly brown, muddy water on top of the saltwater of the Sound. Also track which way the eddies are spinning on tide lines to make sure you are on the fast side.

As you can see from the Sunday surface chart another front is headed our way and that will per usual manifest itself as a southeasterly in the northern part of Admiralty Inlet and the eastern end of the Straits gradually working its way back down the Sound by mid Sunday afternoon. If you’re cruising up north this weekend, thinking about being in the Straits, track the wind reports before you head out as it could be cranking on Sunday.

By next Tuesday we will have a lot more rain as two frontal systems line up and take aim at us. Could also get a bit breezy. Looking at the 500MB Charts you can see why we’re going to be watching that 950 MB low in mid-Pacific. That is a significant storm that could impact our region by next weekend.

Have a great weekend and be safe out there.

Bruce’s Weather Brief February 11-12 Winds at 45 Knots for Now

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs, Weather , 0 Comment
Bruce’s Weather Brief February 11-12 Winds at 45 Knots for Now

It was yet another impressive week of weather for the Pacific Northwest. Snow in the lowlands, and lots of snow in the mountains and in Whatcom County. We totally more than made up our rainfall deficient for the year. Having gone from 1.5 inches behind a week ago to almost 3 inches ahead today.

Then today we have 45 knots of southerly at West Point and that will last through the day and into the early evening before it starts to back off. As you can see from today’s surface chart we’ve got a moderate high pressure system off the coast (1024MB) with a dissipating low pressure system that has the isobars bunched over the Puget Sound hence the gale warnings for our waters. By tomorrow however that high pressure system will strengthen and move in over the Pacific Northwest giving us a brief respite from this never ending stream of wet frontal systems.

The weekend actually looks pretty good for sailing on Saturday, and great for power boating on Sunday with sunblock advisable for both days. Yes, SUNBLOCK! Actually, you should never leave the house without sunblock if you’re going on the water. Saturday you can expect 10-12 from the south in the morning for most of the central and south Sound with slightly more north of Pt. No Point and into the eastern Straits. As the days wears on you can expect the southerly to slowly back off in the central and south Sound with it becoming about 5 knots by late afternoon.

As you can see from the Sunday Surface Chart we will definitely be under a high pressure system with little wind in the Pacific Northwest, plenty of sun but not much breeze.

The really interesting chart is Valentine’s Day which is showing a pair of significant low pressure systems. The one(966MB) up in the Gulf of Alaska has a front that extends from 60N, 145W to 20N, 150E. WOW! The deeper low (960MB) off the north end of Vancouver Island doesn’t have a long front however both of these will be impacting our weather from Wednesday on into the next weekend. Keep an eye on this and if you have to do the delivery to Olympia for the Toliva Shoal Race, why not go this weekend? Just a thought.

Have a great weekend.