Seems like everyone not already up in the Islands, is going to leave on Friday, which should work just fine. Tides will not be great however what wind there is will be from the SE.
As you can see from the surface charts there is a weak low-pressure system off the coast that is moving to the SE with an attached frontal system. This will dissipate on Friday and will result in unstable conditions for the Race over the weekend.
For delivery on Friday, if you’re leaving from Seattle, expect 10-15 knots from the SE which will lighten to 5-10 from the SE by noon or about the time you’ll be crossing the Straits. If your mast is short enough you can go up the inside and through the Swinomish Slough, just be careful of the shallow spots in the Slough.
Tides at Bush Point
0606 Max Flood 2.76 knts
1118 Slack
1406 Max Ebb 1.57 knts
1648 Slack
1918 Max Flood 1.35 knts
Tides at Rosario Straits
0430 Slack
0712 Max Flood 2.06 knts
1112 Slack
1430 Max Ebb 1.44 knts
1824 Slack
1918 Max Flood .25 knts
9 November Surface Forecast
10 November Surface Forecast
10 November 96-Hr Surface Forecast
12 November Surface Forecast
Preliminary Race forecast
Who can forget two years ago when we had a downwind start and Crossfire made it from the starting line to Alden Point in 45 minutes. It won’t be that good this year but it will be similar. Remember to follow the SI’s and report your time at the Alden Point because from Alden Point to the finish could get very light and flukey.
Kurt grew up racing and cruising in the Midwest, and has raced Lasers since the late 1970s. Currently he is a broker at Swiftsure Yachts. He has been Assistant Editor at Sailing Magazine and a short stint as Editor of Northwest Yachting. Through Meadow Point Publishing he handles various marketing duties for smaller local companies. He currently is partners on a C&C 36 which he cruises throughout the Northwest. He’s married to the amazing Abby and is father to Ian and Gabe.
The view this morning is looking to the north at the San Juan Islands and to the northwest at Vancouver Island, Victoria and the Malahat Pass, all of which have a dusting of SNOW! So for those of you getting ready to head out for a weekend on the water, dress appropriately because it is COLD! This should also serve as a reminder for those getting ready for Round the County next weekend to dig out the long johns, pocket warmers, foot warmers, safety harnesses and tethers. The really long range forecast (and probably NOT very accurate) shows a cranking onshore flow for that weekend. Hint, tomorrow looks like a great day to run the boat north and don’t just go part way, start very early and do it in one day because Sunday the breeze will be from the north and cold.
Surface Forecast 11/3
24-Hr 500 MB 11/4
24-Hr Surface 11/4
48-Hr Surface 11/5
96 Hr 500MB 11/6
96-Hr Surface 11/7
As you look at the charts today you can see why we got the snow with a high in southern BC and a low off our coast. As these systems shift to the east this will bring us light air Saturday becoming southerly in the late afternoon. On Sunday we’ll be under the influence of the backside of the low which will bring us a northerly, not too strong but very cool.
The 7 November chart shows a 984MB low combining with a 988MB low and coming right towards the Pacific Northwest but stalling off our coast as the coastal buffer zone kicks in. We’ll be watching this as some of you have been asking about weather for doing the delivery north starting Thursday or Friday. We’ll provide a Wednesday update for deliveries and the Race forecast on Friday.
If you have any specific questions about the Race, please get those to me by Thursday night and I’ll do my best to get them answered.
Also, Kurt did a great job with the survey he sent out and it obviously hit a nerve because he got a pretty large number of replies. Take some time to review the results and if it inspires you to post comments on the blog or send them directly to Kurt, feel free. It’s all good.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
For a while this week it was looking like Grand Prix might, once again, be a total washout. Luckily, the weather changes and while Saturday looks pretty grim, today looks like the best breeze and Sunday might have some breeze by early to mid-afternoon. In other words, win all the races you can today as that may be all races you’re going to have.
There won’t be much tidal action this weekend so that’s good when the breeze is going to be light.
Friday 10-27
1048 Slack
1400 Max Ebb .39 knots
1706 Slack
1942 Max Flood .52 knots
Saturday 10-28
0748 Max Flood .98 knots
1142 Slack
1412 Max Ebb .37 knots
1754 Slack
2036 Max Flood .53 knots
Sunday 10-29
0848 Max Flood .91 knots
1236 Slack
1430 Max Ebb .33 knots
1842 Slack
2200 Max Flood .60 knots
Looking at the surface charts you can’t help but notice the strong offshore flow coming from the 1034MB high-pressure system situated to the northeast of us. This is generating easterly winds through the Gorge, the mountain passes, and the Straits. In the central Sound, this will cause 5-10 knots of northerly with occasional shifts to the northeast. Tacticians will have fun with that today depending on where the RC sends you. The puffs will tend to be more northeasterly the more you are to the east side of the Sound and as the day goes on, there will be less wind over the entire area and especially on the east side of the Sound.
27 October Surface Forecast
28 October Surface Forecast
29 October Surface Forecast
30 October Surface Forecast
Saturday looks like a great day for powerboating with temperatures approaching 70° and 0 to 3 knots of breeze from all over the compass. The Husky game is early for once so we should all be back in time to watch that.
Right now Sunday looks like it could be very light in the morning with a weak northerly filling down the Sound by early to mid-afternoon. As you can see from the charts there simply won’t be much gradient over the area after today. Remember, however, that this could also result in a very nice thermally induced northerly, so keep your fingers crossed.
The chart for Tuesday, the 30th, is interesting just because of the monster low-pressure systems we have lurking out in the Pacific. Note the words “hurricane force” and “rapidly intensifying”, eventually one of those is going to find its way into our area.
Wear your sunblock, have fun and enjoy the weekend.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
Gee, can you guess fall is really here? Yet even after the driest summer ever, we are still over 8” of rain ahead for the year and we have the wettest months ahead of us. Needless to say, it is going to be very interesting.
A quick look at the charts shows a weak trough of low-pressure off the coast today with three more low-pressure systems lined up for the weekend. The interesting part is that for the central Sound, Saturday is going to be very different from Sunday. The Saturday morning chart shows a warm front off the coast with 50-knots forecast for the northern coast of Oregon and the southern coast of Washington. The postfrontal area shows a very strong onshore flow with winds consistently over 30 knots. If you thought the surf along the coast this week (19-21’) was impressive, just wait. This is reinforced by the jet stream which is coming directly across the Pacific and right into the Pacific Northwest. The folks flying back from Hawaii will really benefit from the 100-knot tailwinds. If it was only a little further south it would be bringing much-needed rain into the wine country of northern California.
20 October Surface Chart
21 Oct 500MB
21 October Surface Forecast
22 October 500MB
22 Oct Surface Forecast Chart
24 Oct Surface Forecast Chart
The result of all this for boaters is that the eastern end of the Straits of Juan de Fuca will be fairly wild on Saturday with gale warnings in place until early Saturday evening for SE winds of 30-40 knots with higher gusts. By late Saturday night, the postfrontal wind will kick-in with 25-30 knots of westerly in the same area of the Straits.
For the central and south Puget Sound, Saturday will be fairly benign until the postfrontal flow starts coming through the Chehalis gap in the early evening Saturday. By Saturday evening expect 15-25 knots of southwesterly over the area. By Sunday morning this will ease over the south Sound however you can expect 15-20 knots of southerly over the central Sound to last most of the day.
This will be a great weekend to break out the extra winter mooring lines and chafe gear as well trade phone numbers with your slip mate in case of mooring emergencies. While I am definitely in favor of winter cruising, Saturday morning would be a great time to take the roller furling jib down and get it to the sailmaker. Leaving those roller furling jibs up in the winter is just asking for trouble. When you do decide to go cruising, just use the number 3 or number 4 headsail, easy to rig, easy to stow.
Be sure to take a look at the chart for 24 Oct as once again we are expected have a fairly strong high-pressure system over the area which will be a welcome respite from the rain this weekend. Then, look to the west and check out that MONSTER 947MB low-pressure in the Aleutians which could impact our weather by next weekend!
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
Get out and enjoy the weekend! Beautiful day today and it looks like it will hold for the weekend. Perhaps the most interesting feature this week is Hurricane Ophelia as it continues to build with some models showing the British Isles taking a direct hit.
Ophelia
Then there’s the tornado outside of Portland turning over some small planes. The great thing about the weather is that it’s never boring.
Today’s chart shows a setup most Vic-Maui, Pacific Cup, and TransPac sailors dream about; a nice and round 1041 MB high-pressure system with almost perfect spacing in the isobars. The only problem is that weak low-pressure system sitting over the Pacific Northwest. This will result in some atmospheric instability and generally light conditions over the Salish Sea.
For PSSC this will mean a pretty nice southerly over the Shilshole area and about 8-15 knots until late in the afternoon when the breeze will start to drop and shift more to the southeast. Sunday the breeze will fill in from the north at about 8-10 knots and should hold for the day. All in all, pretty perfect conditions for a regatta.
The tides will cooperate as well which will make the racing very interesting. These are the tidal currents at West Point.
Saturday
0948 Max Flood .97 knts
1254 Slack
1424 Max Ebb .3 knts
1748 Slack
Sunday
0536 Slack
1100 Max Flood 1.02 knts
1348 Slack
1524 Max Ebb .27 knts
1854 Slack
With the southerly and a flood tide for the start of racing on Saturday you can expect a southeasterly shift along the shore north of Meadow Point and along the breakwater off of Shilshole. Even with a flood tide, there will still be an advantage to going left off the start line and minimizing the number of tacks to the weather mark. Chances are it will also pay to do a starboard pole set at the weather mark and hold that until you start to get lifted as you sail north. After the bottom mark, the direction you go will depend on how far to the west the mark is, where your competition goes and how far the wind is to south or south-west. If the mark is way to the west than you may not be able to go far enough to the east to get back into the south-easterly. If this is the case then it’s back to basic’s, stay between your competition and the finish. On the run north be sure to have someone check the flags on the committee boat and see which end of the line is favored and if one side of the course is favored.
13 October Surface Chart
14 October Surface Chart
15 October Surface Chart
16 October Surface Chart
The northerly on Sunday will make things even trickier as there may still be a slight north-easterly component in the morning. If the sky is clear over the downtown area and it can heat up sooner, this will bring the wind around to northwest sooner. Again, keep your head out of the boat and watch which way the smart guys are going.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
For the CYC’s Small Boat Series off of Shilshole, it doesn’t look much better on Saturday when you’ll have light and variable breeze. Sunday, however, looks MUCH better with 15-20 knots of northerly in the morning and then dropping off to 5-10 knots of northerly in the afternoon.
Tides will be more interesting for the Shilshole venue especially on Sunday. And no, that is not a typo on Sunday with ebbs back to back.
0742 Max Ebb .47 knots
1242 Slack
1536 Max Flood .95 knots
1806 Slack
Sunday
0830 Max Ebb .44 knots
1224 Max Ebb .12 knots
1342 Slack
1618 Max Flood .87 knots
The tactics for Saturday and Sunday will be highly dependent on where the start line is set. On Sunday if the RC is closer to the breakwater, in the morning think of Thursday evening racing in the summer. On Sunday afternoon think of morning racing in the summer, in other words, more of a slight northeasterly component.
Have a great weekend
Ed. Note, Thanks Bruce for thinking of us “little guys.” It looks like a solid turnout with a dozen J/24s, 11 Lasers, 11 RS Aeros, 7 Moore 24s, 4 Stars and a few other classes as well. Here’s to a competitive racing, even if it is a bit light!
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
Our very interesting year of weather continues after a spectacularly beautiful week of true Indian Summer conditions. As we know, it simply isn’t going to last however there is really nothing major league bad in the offing. That, however, is the bad news.
As you can see from the charts, we have a cold front that is rapidly approaching the Pacific Northwest and will blow through the area tonight. The baro is dropping and we are already seeing rain off the north coast on the Doppler. The other feature to note is the incredibly strong high-pressure system (1040MB) off the coast. This will drive a strong onshore flow down the Straits after the cold front passes. Unfortunately, this will create a convergence zone over the Race Course area for tomorrow. As is typical for a post-frontal scenario, the isobars will ease over the Upper Sound and lower part of Admiralty Inlet and while it may be cranking in the Straits, 25-30 knots from the West, the westerly won’t get much past the Marrowstone Light. While there will be enough southerly in the Race area to get the race started, it will tend to get lighter from noon on. The key to this race will be to finish early.
Oct 6 Surface Forecast
Oct 7 Surface Forecast
Oct 8 Surface Forecast
Oct 10 Surface Forecast
Running the polars for Crossfire, they should finish just after 1300 hours in a dying south-southeasterly followed closely by the TP-52’s. The rest of fleet may struggle a bit as the breeze will continue to drop. Other projected times are:
Beneteau First 40.7 1609
J-105 1648
Farr 1020 1719
The tides will actually be a help. For Admiralty Inlet off Bush Point.
0712 Slack
1018 Max Ebb 2.74 knots
1342 Slack
1612 Max Flood 1.75 knots
1842 Slack
This will be another race that will drive tacticians and navigators crazy as they struggle to keep their vessels in the best wind. The key here will be to keep your head out of the boat and watch which way the smart people are going. For the most part, on the way up to Scatchet Head, simply aim at the mark and sail your polars.
From Scatchet Head to Foulweather Bluff, you will want to stay in the ebb tide and stay out of Skunk Bay where it can get light in a southerly. With any kind of luck, you’ll get around FWB near slack water. Remember that the flood starts first coming down the west side of the Sound and around Point No Point, so watch your COG and SOG. Again, if you’re beating after the mark, stay out of Skunk Bay, there’s a reason why it’s called that….
From Pt No Pt to the finish, have your barber-haulers and light air sheets rigged and ready and aim for the finish. Given a choice between going due east or down the Sound on the west side, stay to the west. Just don’t overstand the finish and keep yourself between your competition and the finish line.
Remember, all of this presumes a long course. The committee has two other options if it looks like it’s going to be really light.
The rest of the weekend really looks OK with the only really breezy conditions being in the Straits. While we’ll tend to have a southerly over the Sound on Saturday, this will shift to a northerly on Sunday. In other words, Stay in Edmonds, enjoy the post-race activities and the sail home on Sunday.
Take a peek also at the surface chart for 10 October. If you were impressed with the 1040MB High, you’ll love the 1043MB monster that’s projected. It also shows another weak cold front coming over us. None of these will produce much rain however it will be getting cooler in the evenings.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
How propitious that the 2017 NWS Seattle Integrated Weather Team Workshop was yesterday and we got to preview what NWS is thinking about the upcoming winter and how they are going to convey this information. Love to see the Seattle office being a leader in this especially at a time when in spite of an increasingly complex weather scenario, the Trump administration wants to cut the budget of both NOAA and FEMA. As if the recent (and still unfinished) hurricane season hasn’t sent a clear enough message. Kurt is kicking my chair and telling me to get back on the job. (Ed. note: NO, he’s not!)
My, how things have changed over the last couple of weeks. We have gone from an ENSO neutral winter to a distinctly La Niña pattern which is really great news for skiers and the snowpack in the mountains. What is a La Niña pattern? In very simple terms it means that the temperature of the equatorial waters off of South America are significantly lower than normal. See the current SST anomaly chart. In an El Niño event, it’s the opposite, in other words significantly warmer than normal.
Click image to enlarge
So the real question is what does this mean for boaters? As you can see from the NWS Chart of Significant Winter Weather, in La Niña years we have the greatest chance of major wind storms and lowland snow events. If you ever needed an excuse to get your furled sails down and into the sailmaker for an off-season inspection, this should be it. Also, think about getting those winter mooring lines out and figuring out how to add some extra lines. I mentioned lowland snow events because those usually accompany below normal temperatures which means winterizing your boat for below freezing temperatures. Nothing worse than walking down to the boat to find only the bridge above water. Needless to say, we’ll give you a heads-up before any of those.
Right now there is no significant weather on the radar since the front passed through this morning. The rest of the weekend looks like a typically post-frontal situation with the possibility of a Puget Sound convergence zone developing in the northern Sound and over Admiralty inlet Saturday evening.So a bit of a breezy westerly in the eastern Straits that may extend down Admiralty Inlet Saturday afternoon. The Straits could see 15-25 while the north Sound could see 15-20. Sunday will be quieter with light air in the south Sound and a nice westerly/northwesterly in the eastern Straits and north Sound. Since it’s the Pacific Northwest there may be some spotty showers around.
Click images to enlarge
Sept 29 500MB
Sept 29 Surface Forecast
Sept 30 Surface Forecast
Oct 1 Surface Forecast
Oct 3 500MB
Oct 3 Surface Forecast
The charts for the weekend also provide some interesting reading in that the 500MB charts show the upper-level lows above the jet stream and a strong upper-level high below. The chart for next week (3 Oct) also shows the jet stream coming out of the Canadian Interior and back out to us. If this were later in December or early January this would be the kind of pattern that can bring snow to the Pacific Northwest.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
Once again nothing too dramatic to report, just another gorgeous Indian Summer weekend. We’ll take it because we all know it can’t last. Since we had some rain earlier as well as snow in the mountains it should be noted that after one of the driest summers on record, we are still over 7” of rain above the average year to date. Plus we don’t have any hurricanes headed our way and no really adverse weather on the horizon for at least the next 10 days. Now if only we could do something about the traffic….
When you look at the surface charts you will quickly see the reason for our great weather, that 1031MB high-pressure system right off our coast and it’s not going anywhere in any great hurry. As you check the upper air (500MB) charts, the jet stream is staying north and keeping the storms well away from us.
Sept 22 500MB
Sept 22 Surface Chart
Sept 23 Surface Forecast
Sept 24 500MB
Sept 24 Surface Forecast
Sept 26 500MB
Sept 26 Surface Forecast
Once again it will be a great weekend for powerboaters and not so good for sailors. Generally speaking light air over the entire Pacific Northwest. Maybe some clouds in the morning but those will clear and we can expect highs to be in the mid to upper 60’s. With the clear skies it will be a little coolish at night but all in all, not a bad weekend to be on the water.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
It certainly appears that this will be the last great weekend of the summer so you better get out and enjoy it! And at least we don’t live in Florida or Texas. Plus, don’t forget that we are no where near done with hurricane season. Two active in the Pacific and potentially three in the Atlantic. What will be really interesting will be the beach erosion caused by Jose on the northern part of the Eastern Seaboard especially Long Island, Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket.
Today’s surface analysis
Saturday morning surface forecast
Surface forecast Sunday
Surface forecast Sept 19
For the Pacific Northwest the question will be if it’s going to rain on the Seahawks home opener on Sunday and if so when. Right now it looks like the pre-frontal wind will start early Sunday morning with the rain starting about noon and continuing until the game ends. Take your foulies.
For boaters there simply won’t be much wind on Saturday so go ahead and power south. That way on Sunday when the breeze fills in from the south-southeast you’ll have a downwind sail back to Seattle.
Also, if you’re a sailor it’s time to think about getting those cruising sails scheduled for maintenance this winter and getting your dock buddies organized to help you get the furling jib down and folded in advance of the first big blow of the winter.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
Seems like everyone not already up in the Islands, is going to leave on Friday, which should work just fine. Tides will not be great however what wind there is will be from the SE.
