No doubt, winter is here and is just getting started. The really interesting part of this weekend’s charts are the 500MB charts which show the jet stream undulating over the Pacific into the Aleutians, then back down to Hawaii before coming back into the Pacific Northwest, can you say Pineapple Express?
For those of you that decided to wait until this weekend to bring the boat back from Round the County, the best day was probably today, however, being mere mortals and having jobs may have prevented that. The next best day will be tomorrow, just get an early start and if you’re comfortable leaving early so you get to Deception Pass around 0830, that will be the tail of the ebb before slack at 0930. Then go down the inside to avoid what will be more wind and more lump in Admiralty Inlet. This will also get you south or north to Vancouver before 2100 hours when that next front will start manifesting itself over the area. By early Sunday morning expect Gale warnings for SE breeze (35-40 knots) off the coast and in the eastern Straits of JdF and southern part of the Strait of Georgia. The front will pass around noon with the wind moderating by mid-Sunday afternoon.
For those of you going cruising over the Thanksgiving Holiday, really pay attention to the weather as we are going to get pummeled by a series of fronts coming into the Pacific Northwest. Next Wednesday afternoon might be a good time to leave work early and go down to the boat to check the mooring lines and make sure all your chafe gear is in place.
The view this morning is looking to the north at the San Juan Islands and to the northwest at Vancouver Island, Victoria and the Malahat Pass, all of which have a dusting of SNOW! So for those of you getting ready to head out for a weekend on the water, dress appropriately because it is COLD! This should also serve as a reminder for those getting ready for Round the County next weekend to dig out the long johns, pocket warmers, foot warmers, safety harnesses and tethers. The really long range forecast (and probably NOT very accurate) shows a cranking onshore flow for that weekend. Hint, tomorrow looks like a great day to run the boat north and don’t just go part way, start very early and do it in one day because Sunday the breeze will be from the north and cold.
As you look at the charts today you can see why we got the snow with a high in southern BC and a low off our coast. As these systems shift to the east this will bring us light air Saturday becoming southerly in the late afternoon. On Sunday we’ll be under the influence of the backside of the low which will bring us a northerly, not too strong but very cool.
The 7 November chart shows a 984MB low combining with a 988MB low and coming right towards the Pacific Northwest but stalling off our coast as the coastal buffer zone kicks in. We’ll be watching this as some of you have been asking about weather for doing the delivery north starting Thursday or Friday. We’ll provide a Wednesday update for deliveries and the Race forecast on Friday.
If you have any specific questions about the Race, please get those to me by Thursday night and I’ll do my best to get them answered.
Also, Kurt did a great job with the survey he sent out and it obviously hit a nerve because he got a pretty large number of replies. Take some time to review the results and if it inspires you to post comments on the blog or send them directly to Kurt, feel free. It’s all good.
It certainly appears that this will be the last great weekend of the summer so you better get out and enjoy it! And at least we don’t live in Florida or Texas. Plus, don’t forget that we are no where near done with hurricane season. Two active in the Pacific and potentially three in the Atlantic. What will be really interesting will be the beach erosion caused by Jose on the northern part of the Eastern Seaboard especially Long Island, Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket.
For the Pacific Northwest the question will be if it’s going to rain on the Seahawks home opener on Sunday and if so when. Right now it looks like the pre-frontal wind will start early Sunday morning with the rain starting about noon and continuing until the game ends. Take your foulies.
For boaters there simply won’t be much wind on Saturday so go ahead and power south. That way on Sunday when the breeze fills in from the south-southeast you’ll have a downwind sail back to Seattle.
Also, if you’re a sailor it’s time to think about getting those cruising sails scheduled for maintenance this winter and getting your dock buddies organized to help you get the furling jib down and folded in advance of the first big blow of the winter.
At this point, all eyes are on Florida as we watch Irma move inexorably closer, currently projected to make landfall in the Upper Keys. 130 to 150mph winds and a 6’-10’ storm surge are going to absolutely devastate southern Florida. As I said a couple of weeks ago, this is a very interesting time of the year and when you can get three hurricanes (a Cat 5, a Cat 4 and a Cat2) in the Atlantic with the possibility of a fourth forming off of the Cape Verde Islands all at the same time, this can and should get your attention.
Our weather, on the other hand, is very benign with the possibility of a weak front coming ashore tomorrow. We finally have an onshore flow which should help clean-up the air and move the smoke to Eastern Washington. Unfortunately, there isn’t much moisture associated with the front so that isn’t going to help the fire situation.
For boaters, this will mean small craft advisories in the eastern Straits of JdF (Juan de Fuca) for westerlies tonight and then become a southeasterly on Saturday as the front approaches. For the most part, the winds will be less than 15 knots all weekend over the inland waters. The other interesting feature to note is the jet stream in the 500MB charts as it is now tending to move south. As it does this will allow more fronts into the Pacific Northwest. It’s been a great summer, however, I think we can agree that it’s time for some rain.
Well, the folks in Texas and Louisiana have certainly had enough weather probably for a lifetime. The bad news is that the European weather models are showing another 2-4″ of rain coming down Tuesday and Wednesday and then by the end of the week there’s the possibility of Hurricane Irma making a US landfall in the Gulf. YIKES! On top of that, the current administration Is going to cut funding to NOAA and FEMA while wiping out any mention of climate change. How is it we are getting 100 year, 200 year, 500 year and 800 year floods and storms every year now? Kurt is telling me to get back to weather in the Pacific NW now and save the politics for a happy hour discussion.
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In short, we are going to have a truly spectacular weekend with no rain on the horizon anywhere in the near future. For boaters this will be great except for the possibility of fog in the mornings. I’ve added the Western Washington Surface Conditions Chart so that you can do your own predictions for fog. I can tell you from personal experience that there was plenty of fog in Admiralty Inlet and the eastern end of the Straits this morning. No reason to go anywhere so why not soak the crab pots? We were rewarded with four gorgeous Dungeness. I digress. The red number above the wind arrow is the current temp while the blue number below the arrow is the dew point, the temp at which fog will form. The closer they are, the more likely you are to get fog.
As you can see from the surface charts, our weather is being dominated by a relatively weak ridge of high pressure extending from Hawaii to directly over us. In addition, there is second weak high pressure system directly east of us that will be bringing up warm air from a thermal low over the Central Valley of California. This will result in record temperatures for our area over the next 4-5 days. Great if you’re a boater, not so good if you’re thinking about camping. The other feature that will be present is a consistent offshore flow which will cause down slope compressional heating of the air mass. This also means there will be little wind coming down the Straits from the Pacific to cool us off and no small craft advisories in the eastern Straits.
Then if you check the upper air charts (500MB) there is no jet stream activity to move any of those low pressure systems you see out in the mid-Pacific towards us. If you like hot and dry, you’re going to love the next couple of weeks. If you’re a fire-fighter, not so much.