Bruce’s Briefs

Weather for 12, 13 and 14 Oct. Pumpkin Bowl Regatta at West Van and PSSC at Shilshole

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs, Youth Sailing 0 Comment
Weather for 12, 13 and 14 Oct. Pumpkin Bowl Regatta at West Van and PSSC at Shilshole

It has been getting noticeably cooler this week and last Saturday you could even see a new dusting of snow on the taller peaks in the Olympics as well as up at Whistler. This will present some challenging conditions for sailors this weekend. Today we have a moderate onshore flow as a result of the high-pressure system (1029MB) just offshore. The fact that it is irregularly shaped and less than 1030MB tells us that it will be pushed around by the two fronts to the west of that high. Offshore we’ll have very strong northerlies today, possibly gale force, that will last into the late evening. After that, the gradient that causes this will ease and a northeasterly offshore flow will develop and last into Saturday morning. In the Strait of Georgia, this will last until midday when it will be replaced by a weak northwesterly filling down the Straits which will last into the early evening hours at which time a weak offshore northeasterly will once again develop. With our highly varied topography, which will generate its usual plethora of micro-climates, sailors in both venues will face challenging conditions, not too much wind but plenty of sun so USE THE SUNBLOCK EARLY AND OFTEN!

Of general interest to boaters will be that whopping 967MB low in the central Pacific, luckily with the current configuration of the jet stream this won’t present a problem to boaters on the Salish Sea. This is, however, the time of the year that we can get these systems and as the jet stream changes, they will eventually come into our area. It is, after all, the 56th anniversary of the Columbus Day Storm.

The Pumpkin Bowl Regatta.

This is a very cool event run out of West Vancouver YC which as of last night had over 200 sailors in 190 boats registered for the weekend. Last year, in just two days, they completed 63 races. In order to do this, they have an army of over 100 volunteers with 70 of them being on the water. WOW!

Tidal Currents: Measurements at the First Narrows

13 Oct

0850      Slack

1125      Max Ebb                 2.1 knots

1422      Slack

1644      Max Flood            1.5

1857      Slack

14 Oct

0947      Slack

1220      Max Ebb                 1.8 knots

1524      Slack

1729      Max Flood            .9 knots

 

While there won’t be this much current in Howe Sound it will be something to watch especially if any of the marks are near the shore.

My point in bringing up the cooler weather and snow in the mountains is to make the point that the gradient will reinforce the usual squamish effect that occurs in Howe Sound and will also show itself in English Bay. In the morning the flow will be from the northeast in both Howe Sound and English Bay. As the sun comes out and the land starts to warm, this flow will ease to less than five knots somewhere between 1000 and noon. The flow will back to the north and then around 1300-1500 hours back sharply to the west. Your key to this will be your masthead wind indicator since the air aloft will be warmer than the surface air and will start warning you the shift is coming. The westerly will be around 4-6 knots and will slowly build to 5-8 knots by the late afternoon. After about 1700 hours the breeze will start to ease and clock back to the northeast as we go into evening cooling.

Sunday doesn’t look quite so good as the morning squamish will die to light and variable conditions however as the land starts to heat, a light west-southwesterly breeze (3-5 knots) will start to fill around noon and as the day goes on this will clock to the west-northwest and remain light.

Regardless, this will be a fun weekend to be on the water.

Sailors in Puget Sound will face similar conditions except that there will definitely be a northwesterly breeze especially on Saturday morning, like maybe 20+ and it will hold until mid-afternoon when it will start to ease very slightly. In the morning along the east side of the Sound, there could still be some of the downslope drainage effects which will create a shift to the north-northeast, however, this will go away as the land heats and draws more of the northwesterly down the Sound.

There will still be wind on Sunday just less of it and it will start out being from the north and then back to the northwest as the land heats. It will start out at around 7-10 knots and pretty much stay at that velocity until mid-afternoon when a solid northwesterly of about 10-14knots should have made its way into the central Sound. It will last until late afternoon when the cooling land mass will start to drop the breeze.

Tides at West Point  

This is going to look a bit strange so I’ve included a graph to explain what is going on. Overall, just not a lot of current however you still need to be aware of it.

13 Oct

0836      Slack

1006      Ebb          .23 knots

1130      Ebb          .20 knots

1254      Ebb          .21 knots            

1448      Slack

1730      Flood     .64 knots

14 Oct

0936      Slack

1312      Ebb          .22

1530      Slack

1812      Flood     .53  

 

Have a great weekend and enjoy the sun!

 

Wx for 5, 6, and 7 Oct. Foulweather Bluff Race

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Wx for 5, 6, and 7 Oct. Foulweather Bluff Race

It’s finally starting to look a lot more like Seattle today as the streets are wet and the lawns are screaming thank you to the rain. You can clearly see why in today’s surface analysis chart which shows an occluded front extending from a 1004MB Low-Pressure system that is going to just barely hit us today as it heads in a southeasterly direction towards Oregon. After it passes, the high-pressure system you see over eastern Washington and southern BC will interact with this passing low-pressure to bring a northerly flow over the Salish Sea tonight and into tomorrow morning. As the offshore high-pressure rebuilds, this will cause an onshore flow to bring a westerly down the Straits of JdF tomorrow afternoon. This will also cause the northerly gradient to weaken over the area starting by early to mid-afternoon. As you can see from the radar shot, the end of the rain is now showing up off the coast.

Click any image to enlarge.

How does this translate to the Foulweather Bluff Race? The models are not in agreement as to when the northerly breeze will start ease. The GFS model has 5 knots of northerly in the starting area and building slightly as you head west and then easing to 4 knots at around 1400 hours. The MM5 model has 5 knots in the starting area, then building to 10 knots of northerly by Scatchet Head, building to 12-15 knots of NW as you head across the Sound. This will ease to about 10 knots by 1400 hours across the Sound becoming 5-8 in the start finish area. By 1700 hours it will ease to 5-10 knots of northwesterly all across the Sound except less than 5 in the start-finish area. Plus we may have some fog in the morning which will really make life interesting.

Running the numbers for a J-30 if it were to go on the Long Course it would take them about 8.5 hours to finish. If they were sent on Course 2 it would take them about 5 hours.

Running the numbers for Crossfire, if they were sent on the Long Course it would take them about 3.75 hours. If they went on Course 2 it would take them about 2.33 hours.

The other factor will be the tides at Foulweather Bluff:

0930      Slack

1212      Max Flood            1.3 knots

1606      Slack

2012      Max Ebb                 .47 knots

 

Your basic tactics are going to be to get a clear start and hold starboard off the line to get away from the Edmonds shore and tack when you are slightly overstood on the Scatchet Head because the tidal velocity increases as you get closer to the mark and the wind can ease under that bluff. From there whether you are going Long Course or Course 2 you just sail the course to the next mark and anticipate the set as you approach the FWB mark. You’ll probably do a gybe set at that mark so talk that through before you get there and then it will be trim, trim, trim, all the way to finish anticipating that the breeze will ease as you approach the Edmonds shore which will mean moving people out of the cockpit and up to the shrouds to keep the stern out of the water.

If you are going on Course 2 then you may not be able to set at the first mark just be ready as you get to Pt No Pt because you will be lifted as you approach Pilot Point and then be ready to gybe at the Pilot Pt mark.

Sunday it will be generally light over the Sound as we await the approach of another frontal system late Sunday afternoon which will bring more rain to the area. Note also that the great folks at the NWS have now added a 72 Hour forecast chart. Finally!

Have a great weekend, have a great race and we’ll see you up there.

 

 

 

Nine Low Pressure Systems Vying in the Pacific

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Nine Low Pressure Systems Vying in the Pacific

We are clearly transitioning into fall as evidenced by the leaves on the trees turning and the evening temps getting decidedly cooler. While it is the last weekend in September we still have two more months of hurricane season and Hurricane Rosa is now a Cat 4 storm aiming to come ashore in the northern part of Baja late Monday or early Tuesday. It won’t be a Cat 4 or even a hurricane when it does arrive however it will bring some wind and plenty of rain.

Then we also have Tropical Storm Kirk in the Atlantic headed into the Caribbean with plenty of time for more systems to form off of Africa with conditions being very favorable. So we shall see.

For the Pacific Northwest the surface chart for Saturday is very interesting with NINE low-pressure systems (counting Rosa) dominating the weather from Mexico to Alaska and out to the mid-Pacific. There is also that one 1039MB High in BC which is fairly strong and will be sending light NE breezes into the Strait of Georgia, Strait of JdF, and northern Puget Sound on Saturday. The rest of the Sound will be light and variable as a weak frontal system makes it way onshore late Saturday or early Sunday. This will bring pre-frontal conditions (ESE wind 5-12knots) to the eastern Strait of JdF and light conditions over the rest of Sound.

Next weekend we’ll have a more definitive forecast for the Foulweather Bluff Race out of Edmonds which, as always, will be a great event.

Enjoy this weekend and spend some time out on the water.

Bruce’s Brief for September 21-23 and the Northwest Harvest Benefit Race

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Bruce’s Brief for September 21-23 and the Northwest Harvest Benefit Race
A radar look at the North Pacific

How appropriate is it that tomorrow, the first day of fall or the autumnal equinox, will have somewhat wet and blustery conditions. I don’t know about you but my garden could certainly use some rain.

The surface analysis chart and the current satellite image shows what is happening now with a front off the coast making its approach and pushing a weak group of high-pressure systems out of the Northwest. This will result in pre-frontal conditions over the Salish Sea today meaning 15-20 knots of southeasterly over the central Sound and lighter conditions in the Straits. Frontal passage should occur late this afternoon or early evening. The post frontal conditions will bring a strong onshore flow developing early Saturday. This will result in strong southerly breeze (15-25 knots) over the inland waters in the morning hours on Saturday which will ease after about mid-day. Conditions in the Straits will remain light until the onshore flow develops down the Straits which should occur near dawn on Saturday and hold through the day. This will bring 15-25 knots of westerly down the Straits and this will create a classic Puget Sound convergence zone to develop from Everett north about mid-day on Saturday.

Click any image to enlarge.

This scenario may create some consternation for the NW Harvest Race as the breeze will start from the south at 12-15, clock to the southwest at 10-12, shift to the northeast at 5-10, then back to the north at 5-8 by late afternoon. This will keep skippers and tacticians very busy and this would be a good time for skippers to remember to not get too frustrated by watching windex. The tactician should be watching the windex because that will tell you about the next shift, the skipper or driver should be watching the lower telltales on the sails and steering to those because that is where you have the greatest amount of sail area. Drivers drive and tacticians do tactics.

It’s a great event for a great cause and is always a ton of fun especially the post race party and auction. Have fun, stay warm, and try to stay dry.

Oh yeah, after the post frontal on Saturday, the gradient will ease bringing light air to the region for Sunday. You can also see by the surface chart for Tuesday that the next front will be slightly stronger. It’s time to start thinking about the winter configuration of your mooring lines, chafe gear, and maybe getting that headsail off the furler and into sailmaker for some fall touch ups. No freezing weather on the horizon but you may want to think about that as well.

Bruce’s Brief for September 14-16, Transition in the Air

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Bruce’s Brief for September 14-16, Transition in the Air

Clearly, it has been a week of transition as we move inexorably closer to fall. We still have a medium strength high (1031MB) in the mid-Pacific and two very weak low-pressure (1013MB) systems off the coast to the northwest of us. This will result in a weak onshore flow over the weekend. By Sunday we’ll have a weak frontal system off the coast which will bring pre-frontal conditions to the Salish Sea and perhaps some rain by Sunday night into Monday.

Click any image to enlarge.

For boaters on Saturday, this pattern will mean 10-12 knots of southerly for the central and south Sound and very light conditions for the eastern and central Straits. Sunday the wind strength will be about the same but from the southeast as the next front approaches. In the morning hours, the SE breeze will be up to 15-20 knots in the northern part of Admiralty Inlet and the eastern part of the Straits. As this weak front approaches expect the breeze to ease over the entire area.

As always, check the VHF weather radio for conditions along your route before you leave. It’s the time of year where conditions can change rapidly.

Bruce’s Brief for September 7-9

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Bruce’s Brief for September 7-9
Click to enlarge image.

Yeah, it’s getting cooler and cloudier but no reason to give up on boating yet. When you look at the Sat pictures for today you’ll see that there simply isn’t much moisture in the system for this weekend. Scattered drizzle at best. The good news for sailors is that we’ll have wind in the Center Sound for both days. The bad news is that if the boat is still up in the Gulf or San Juan Islands the trip back might get a little rough, especially on Sunday when the next front approaches.

 

 

 

 

Click to enlarge.

You can see from the charts that we’ll have a frontal system that will move into the area tonight and then weaken by Saturday morning. This will be followed by a weak onshore post-frontal flow through the day on Saturday. Another front will approach the coast on Sunday and move inland Sunday night. This will create a strong pre-frontal flow of southeasterly wind over the area especially from Point No Point north into the San Juan and Gulf Islands. The central and south Sound will see 10-15 knot south-southeasterly wind most of the day. In other words, great sailing!

The Tuesday (11 Sept Chart) has a number of interesting features the primary one being a medium strength low (988MB) in the central Pacific which will have the effect of further degrading what is left of the Pacific High. This will have the added effect of driving Hurricane Olivia on a course that is slightly south of due west and putting the Hawaiian Islands squarely in the crosshairs. As if they haven’t had enough rain already this year and then there’s yet another Tropical depression forming right astern of Olivia which will probably follow a similar path. The problem will continue to be that the jet stream is well north over the Pacific and that 550MB Upper level low will remain a cutoff Low-Pressure system that won’t move very fast. See the 11 Sept 500MB chart.

Fall is definitely approaching at least it won’t really rain until after the weekend!

Enjoy and be safe.

Bruce’s Brief for August 31-September 4

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Bruce’s Brief for August 31-September 4

Finally the weather in the NW will trend back towards “normal”. Whatever that is. The good news is that we’re going to have a very weak set of weather systems sweep over the top of us and this will keep the cloud cover and onshore flow in place as well as keep the smoke from coming in again.

The interesting feature in the charts this week is the Pacific High which over the course of the next four days will continue to weaken from 1033MB down to 1026MB and will go from round to a more flattened high-pressure system as these weak low-pressure systems continue to degrade it.

As I said, this will keep the onshore flow in place which will have the usual effect of creating strong westerlies in the central and eastern part of the Straits of JdF for this evening and into tomorrow. This will ease over the weekend making the trip home from the San Juans or Gulf Islands a nice voyage.

For Sunday morning expect light breeze from the west in the Straits which will become southerly in the northern inland waters and northerly in Admiralty Inlet and Puget Sound. Monday morning will have a northwesterly flow come down the Strait of Georgia and then fill down into Admiralty Inlet and Puget Sound. The Strait of Georgia will have slightly more wind than the rest of the Salish Sea, 15-18 knots compared to 5-10 for Puget Sound.

Here’s Hanalei Valley on Kauai, where a ton of rain took its toll.Have a great Labor Day Weekend and as always, check the VHF weather for conditions along your intended route.

Bruce’s Briefs: Weather for 24, 25, & 26 August and a Smoke Update

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Bruce’s Briefs: Weather for 24, 25, & 26 August and a Smoke Update
Western Wildfires

We’ve probably all had enough of this smoke. Unfortunately, it’s not really going to change for a while. Today’s surface chart shows the reason for this with a strengthening offshore high-pressure system (1034MB building to 1037MB) centered off of the mid-Oregon coast and a weak thermal low-pressure system (1007MB) over eastern BC, Washington, and Oregon with the Salish Sea sandwiched in between. This will give us an onshore flow which will persist over the weekend. Giving us the usual strong flow down the Straits resulting in small craft advisories for the central and eastern Straits for this evening and into Saturday but not much further.

 

Click any image to enlarge.

The stronger onshore flow while north-northwesterly off the coast will still be directly onshore along the coast resulting in light southerlies in the central and southern Puget Sound along the surface while the upper winds will remain from the north. This will continue to bring smoke into the Sound from British Columbia from a number forest fires that continue to burn from the north end of Vancouver Island all across BC, just take a look at the chart of current fires.

For a while this week we were hoping that a frontal system attached to a low in the Gulf of Alaska would make its way into the area Saturday and Sunday. While there may be some cloudy conditions there won’t be much, if any, rain as that front is rapidly disintegrating. See the satellite picture.

Overall, we’ll have cooler temperatures and some smoky haze however it probably won’t be as bad as earlier in the week. Don’t let that stop you from boating, it’s still summer and with school starting way too soon (for some) that will have the effect of curtailing some boating. The long-range forecast is for a lovely Indian Summer which is just about perfect boating weather and you’ll have the anchorages all to yourself.

Enjoy!

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 17, 18, and 19 Aug. Anacortes YC Northern Century Race

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Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 17, 18, and 19 Aug. Anacortes YC Northern Century Race

Our very strange weather continues and I think we are glad we don’t live in California, the Midwest, the South, or the East Coast. My impression is that they are really ready for this summer to end. Still, lots of fires in BC so the smoke and haze are going to be with us for a while. This is because as you can see from charts we have a 1031MB high which is not very strong but then again there is really no jet stream to push it around, just an out of season low-pressure system with an attached front that will impact the Pacific NW about next Wednesday or Thursday.

We also have a weak low-pressure system on the other side of the Cascades which give us a weak onshore flow with a breezy westerly in the Straits late this afternoon and into the evening. This flow will become a southerly through the San Juan Islands and into the southern Strait of Georgia. Unfortunately, it won’t be breezy for the Northern Century, then again, what else is new. The interesting feature is that around midnight tonight, the onshore flow will kick in and start coming south into the Strait of Georgia resulting in a northerly just about the time the first boats should be getting to the top mark. This northerly will continue into Sunday because of higher pressure in BC and lower pressure to the south.

Unfortunately, after about 0200 hours Saturday morning, the onshore flow will ease and the breeze will become very light in the San Juan Islands. The real challenge will be to see if anyone tries to take the shortcut south through San Juan Channel since slack at the south end is at around 0600 hours. Right now I have the SC-50 making it to Turn Rock at 0530 hours which would be cutting it a little close since the wind is going to glass off right around then which will mean waiting out the flood until around 1300 hours. The next wind coming down the Straits of JdF will show up about mid-afternoon on Saturday which depending on the pressure gradient from Forks to Bellingham may be slowed when the ebb starts to roll about 1500 hours. Luckily, when the wind does finally come down the Straits, it will last until about midnight Saturday which should get most folks across the finish line. As always, a very challenging race in a very beautiful part of the world.

For the rest of the Pacific Northwest, it will be pretty much a perfect weekend to own a powerboat. Have a great time, and be safe.

 

Bruce’s Brief, Vic-Maui Update and the start of PAC Cup.

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I guess the good news is that the entire Vic-Maui Fleet has committed to the Great Circle Route and have (wisely) decided to follow Brad Baker on Firefly. The bad news is that as we pointed out last week, the high has built to 1039MB, we said 1040, and it is centered well west at 161degrees W, we said 160, and instead of a 28MB spread from the center of the high to the Islands it’s only 24MB. That is still plenty. The problem will be that between the Pacific High and the coast are persistent troughs of low-pressure off the coast and a very weak ridge of high pressure along the coast. This has created some very breezy conditions north of the Bay Area and will impact the starts of Pacific Cup but only for the first couple of days of the race. After that, it appears there will be a nice band of wind to get south and get set up for the final approach to the Islands. Navigators will really earn their keep this year as from about 140W to 155W there will be unsettled areas of light air.

The Vic-Maui Racers have a more complex problem. They’ve all committed to sailing the shortest possible route which will take them into a large area of light air by the 10th of July. This caused by the fact that the jet stream is simply not around this summer. By the 8th to the 10th of July it make dip as far south as the Aleutians, otherwise, there is nothing to really push the these weather systems around.

For the Pacific NW our mild summer will continue with an unusually strong southerly breeze off the coast today which will diminish as this trough pushes through. Onshore flow will build behind this trough creating strong westerlies in the central Straits. Wind over the rest of the area will remain light and variable. You should still check the VHF weather readings and log the barometer before you head out on any cruise. Just be the prudent mariner.

Enjoy the weekend!

Ed. Note: I’m coming back from a terrestrial vacation in WI. Lots of news to catch up on and put out there on sailish.com. For example, once again Hanne Weaver is the US Singlehanded Women’s Champ! And Firefly and Joy Ride are going at it hard. -KH