Bruce’s Briefs: WX for 19, 20, and 21 April, CYC PSSR.

Bruce’s Briefs: WX for 19, 20, and 21 April, CYC PSSR.

We still have some showers around the area however those should all be gone as this cold front moves on to the east. As per usual, this will bring a post-frontal, onshore flow to the area which will mean SW a breeze for the central Sound this afternoon. With a strong westerly coming down the Straits watch for our famous convergence zone to develop this afternoon and maybe into the early evening from Edmonds north to Marysville.

With a weak ridge of high-pressure trying to build over the area tomorrow, this will bring strong westerlies to the Straits and a nice northerly flow down the Sound and should give racers a pretty nice day on the water. You could start off with 15-20 knots of northerly which will gradually ease off starting about mid-afternoon.

Current won’t be much of an issue as you can see from tidal current at West Point.

Saturday

0700      .39knts                  Ebb

1206      Slack

1530      1.15knts                Flood

1818      Slack

Sunday

0748      .40knts                  Ebb

1236      Slack

1618      1.17knts                Flood

1918      Slack

On Saturday you should probably expect the flood to start maybe 30 minutes early because of the northerly wind flow down Sound so you’ll really want to watch COG and SOG on the beats. Eventually, it will pay to come off the starting line and go west as the wind will back from a true northerly to a more traditional northwesterly. Something to watch for.

Sunday will be a more difficult day as there won’t be much gradient over the Salish Sea and the area will begin to feel the approach of the next frontal system due to arrive late Sunday or early Monday. This will create a light southerly flow over the central Sound on Sunday morning which will give way to very light conditions by Sunday afternoon before a weak northerly comes down from the Straits in the late afternoon or early evening.

Have a great weekend and good luck on the big Easter Egg Hunt! 

Bruce’s Brief for Southern Straits 2019

Bruce’s Brief for Southern Straits 2019

As you undoubtedly noticed, we had the remains of a weak frontal system move over the area today and it will continue to move inland overnight. As it does, it will continue to weaken and behind the front, a weak ridge of high pressure will start to build along the coastal waters producing an onshore flow. Since the frontal system is weak and the high building along the coast is weak, the timing of these events is not well-defined.

The satellite picture and the Sea/Tac Doppler Radar give us a nice view of the current situation. 

The surface charts for today, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday show a consistent progression of these systems. The general rule is that the first day the ridge builds will be the best day for breeze and that matches what we are seeing with the pressure gradient being tighter tomorrow and into tomorrow night and then starting to ease Saturday.

The good news for West Vancouver YC’s Southern Straits Race is that most of the racing will take place on the west side of the Straits where the northwesterly will fill first, be the strongest, and last the longest. The lighter air will be in the starting area while the onshore flow continues to build in the Straits. You should probably start logging the barometric pressure, wind speed, and wind direction at Sentry Shoal, Sisters(34 knots of SE at 1400hrs), Halibut Bank and Sand Heads to get a feel for how fast things are changing.

The starting area should see 5-10 knots of westerly. This will hold until about midday when you should expect the wind to build to 10-15 knots of west-northwesterly as you beat across the Straits. Think about hoisting your first headsail in the port groove so you can do a quicker tack change as the wind builds.

It’s mid to late afternoon where the models diverge as far as wind velocity goes. One model has the wind building to 15-25 knots while the GFS model has it holding at 10-15 knots until midnight when it will build to 15-20 with higher gusts closer to Vancouver Island. This should hold until about midnight when the gradient should ease and the wind begins to drop. As the gradient does ease, expect lighter air the closer you get to the finish as the onshore flow will begin to conflict with the downslope drainage northeasterly coming down the mountains.  

For the Long Course, it looks like the TP 52’s will make it around in about 19 hours finishing around 0500 hours. On the Medium Course, the Beneteau 40.7’s should be finishing about the same time. My apologies to the Short Course boats, I just don’t have any of your polars.

Good luck, be safe, and have a great race. 

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 12, 13, and 14 April, CYC PSSR Small Boats

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 12, 13, and 14 April, CYC PSSR Small Boats

It is certainly like an almost normal April with periods of rain, more snow in the mountains, some sunshine almost immediately followed by cooler cloudy weather and of course, more rain. At least our rainfall deficit should drop from more than three inches to less than two inches.  

Today’s charts and satellite picture provide a very good visual as to why all of this is happening. The front that came through yesterday has left us with a nice ridge of high-pressure that will drift to the east over the course of the day as another front takes aim at the Pacific Northwest. This will give us a nice westerly flow down the Straits with the usual 15-20 knots of westerly from The Race over towards Whidbey Island. The inland waters will feature light and variable winds until early Saturday morning when a southerly flow will begin to develop. By mid-morning Saturday we can expect 15-20-knots of southerly over the central Sound, perfect for PSSC, just be ready. By mid-day Saturday this could build to 25 knots of southerly. This will coincide with frontal passage.

Around mid-afternoon, a strong post-frontal flow will begin to develop with strong westerlies (small-craft advisories in the central and east Straits) coming down the Straits which will meet up with a strong southerly flow coming up the Sound. This will, in turn, cause a very normal Puget Sound Convergence Zone to develop from Edmonds to Marysville. The predominately southerly flow, which will stay in place for most of the day over Central Sound, will shift to the southwest by late afternoon.

The post-frontal onshore flow will create light and variable winds for the central Sound on Sunday as the Olympics will act as a block to this flow. Early Monday morning the wind along the coast will become a pre-frontal southeasterly as another front approaches the coast with, wait for it, more rain. At our gardens are smiling.

We’ll have a special Southern Straits update on this coming Thursday afternoon.

Have a great weekend.       

Bruce’s Briefs: 5,6, and 7 April: STYC Blakely Rock Benefit Race

Bruce’s Briefs: 5,6, and 7 April: STYC Blakely Rock Benefit Race

This is one of our favorite events all year and it is eerily similar to last year with lots of doom and gloom forecasts. The question, as always, is when will these fronts actually impact the race area and that is a very good question.

Doppler at Langley Hill

Today’s surface analysis shows a complex, flattened, series of low-pressure systems ranging from 974MB to 977MB. This front is what we will experience today. The front for tomorrow is attached to a 992MB low directly south of the aforementioned system. The 992MB system is very fast moving and will not weaken until it begins to interact with our coastal buffer zone sometime tomorrow morning. This will put the front over the race area in the late morning to mid-afternoon.

The current Doppler at Langley Hill clearly shows a more intense frontal system headed our way this afternoon and matches up nicely with the satellite picture. We have generally light southeasterly flow over the area now and this will increase as the system approaches starting late this afternoon and into the evening. The barometer is clearly dropping and that is also reflected with the readings from Destruction Island on the coast, where there is 30+knots of wind and the barometer is still dropping so the front is not there yet.

The first start is at 1100 hours and there should be about 12-18 knots of pre-frontal southeasterly. The strongest pre-frontal breeze will be in the eastern part of Straits and up into the San Juan Islands With the passage of the front now looking like to be about midday to early afternoon, expect a brief drop in the breeze as it backs to the south-southwest. As the breeze settles into a more southwesterly direction, this is when we should see the strongest breeze of the day. Then as the front moves further away from the Salish Sea the breeze over the center Sound will slowly drop as the gradient eases. This is a reverse start so the battle on the upwind leg will be to keep your air clear. Tides will not be much of a factor.

Tidal Currents at West Point

0712       .4 knots                                Ebb

1018       Slack

1524       1.06 knots            Flood

1812       Slack

Remember that since we will have had some rain, the ebb in the morning will probably last longer, delaying slack water by as much as an hour. 

Wind Vs. current at Destruction Island

So you will want to get a clear air start and then hold starboard tack to the breakwater and then work your way up under West Point as there will still be some wind-generated surface current against you. At West Point head across the Sound on port tack. Go all the way to the Bainbridge Island shore to again get out of what current there is. There should be a slight knock as you get to Bainbridge so sail well into it before you tack to starboard and work your way up to the Rock.

It’s also possible that if the front is delayed after interacting with the coast that we may have a very east-southeasterly breeze that will allow you to make the mark on one long port tack.

You’ll probably do a port pole set however as you get past all the rocks headed north get set up to gybe and get aimed at West Point. At West Point, the wind may shift slightly to the SSE and become puffy as the wind starts to come out of the Ship Canal. Get set-up to do your drop early and start negotiating with the boats around you for buoy room at Meadow Point.  As you sail past the finish line be sure to sight it and figure out which end is favored. Perfect sail handling at this mark will pay big dividends. You’ll need to tack out from the beach fairly quickly so make sure that is all part of your rounding plan. You should tack back to starboard once you can make the beach between the bathhouse and the north end of the breakwater. There will be a knock as you get in close to the beach. Tack when you can lay the favored end. If it’s the buoy end put a little in the bank because the current from the Ship Canal will set you out.

The satellite view

I also had a great question this week once it looked like it might be breezy and we could be in for some heavy weather. The question was “How do you define heavy weather?” The answer is that you define what heavy weather is and that is the point where you and your crew are no longer comfortable sailing in the existing conditions and there exists the possibility of hurting someone or doing damage to the vessel. So for tomorrow, we will all be in life jackets and safety harnesses and if it’s cranking, we may just stay at the dock. Nothing wrong with that!

Be safe and have a great time.

Bruce’s Briefs March 29, 30, & 31. This should be the best weekend of the year so far.

Best weekend of the year so far is the good news. If you’re a sailor and you liked last weekend, you’ll love this weekend as it will pretty much be a repeat with light air over the Salish Sea. The surface analysis for today shows a weak ridge of high-pressure extending all the way from SE Alaska to the Mexican Border with a weak low-pressure system (1018MB) just off the coast. By tomorrow that low will be gone and the ridge of high pressure over the Pacific Northwest will strengthen leaving no real pressure gradient over the entire area.

For most of the area, this will mean we’ll start off with light southerly breezes that will die off as a northerly flow develops. The northerly will hold through the weekend keeping temperatures mild and winds light. It looks like we’ll have another weak frontal system approach the coast on Monday however don’t expect much rain or wind. 

A perfect weekend for some spring cleaning on the boat and getting ready for the Sloop Tavern Blakely Rock Benefit Race next weekend.

Have a good one.

Bruce’s Brief: March 22-24 and CYC Three Tree Point Race

The first week of spring was certainly interesting with my brother in LA calling to complain that Seattle was 10 degrees warmer than LA. We also had three days of consecutive high temp records and we are now over 2” behind for rainfall year to date. This will all change starting this afternoon as a cold front moves over the area. Take a look at the satellite picture and the Langley Hill Doppler Radar and you’ll notice a very nice correlation between these two and where the front is located as of 1300 hours today.

Usually, frontal activity at this point on the day before a race is a good thing, not so much today. As you can see from the surface charts, the low to which this cold front is attached is relatively weak(997MB), not very stable and will become weaker (1003MB) over the next 24 hours as it is dragged off to the northwest and degraded by the coastal buffer zone. This will create a problem for tomorrow as there will be some wind from the south in the morning however as the day drags on it will become lighter and lighter as the pressure gradient expands over the Salish Sea.

Tidal Current at West Point

0818     .34knts                    Ebb

1336      Slack

1636      1.00                          Flood

1918      Slack

So while we may have wind for the start, it certainly looks like we won’t be able to complete the long course as two models have the Sound pretty well glassing-off by mid-afternoon. Maybe we’ll sail a shortened course. Who knows? There will be some rain around so dress accordingly and enjoy the day. 

Bruce’s Brief: Weather for 15, 16, and 17 March. South Sound Series Islands Race

Bruce’s Brief: Weather for 15, 16, and 17 March. South Sound Series Islands Race

The Ides of March and clearing over the Salish Sea.

The really interesting weather this week occurred over the Central US where there was a bombogenesis event. To have such an event means that you have a low-pressure system that drops 24MB in 24 hours. This low-pressure system rapidly intensified dropping 24MB in just 13 hours and brought hurricane force winds to most of the central plains along with blowing and drifting snow. The central pressure in that low dropped to 956MB. The lowest pressure we’ve seen in the central pacific so far this winter was 954MB in early December.

Unfortunately, we won’t have any where near that this weekend. It will be a lovely weekend to be on the water with temps maybe getting up into the low 60’s with the bad news being that there won’t by much wind for the Islands Race. The surface charts show the problem with a weak ridge of high-pressure setting up over central BC and extending south into the US. This will also act as a nice barrier keeping any low-pressure systems well offshore and directing them into SE Alaska. This pattern will persist into early next week with the 500MB charts showing the jet stream remaining in pretty much the same place. The good news is that this will help bring warmer temps to the Pacific NW just in time for spring!

For the Islands Race at least the current will, as usual, be going the right way in Colvos which will help the fleet get north to the turning mark where maybe the race will be finished. From the start you’ll want to find the axis of the current and ride that as you drag race from hole to hole. Then it will be a race to get to the Tides Tavern and then on to the Yacht Club for what is always a great party.

Enjoy the weekend!

Bruce’s Brief for March 8-10 and Scatchet Head Race

Bruce’s Brief for March 8-10 and Scatchet Head Race
Some weather guru, watching pigs in HI while we watch snow.

While we may have had some rain or snow earlier this week, it looks like we are in for another lovely day on the water this weekend. The problem will be for Scatchet Head racers that there won’t be as much wind as last weekend. As the most recent frontal system has gone past the Pac NW, it has left us with a very weak and wandering ridge of high pressure system (1020MB) that will result in little to no pressure gradient over the area. While there is a weak southerly at West Point this morning, the pressure is rising so it will gradually move around to the east before becoming light and variable. This will persist overnight and then the question becomes when and how much northerly will come down the Sound on Saturday. The answer will be for racers (and the Race Committee) to check the pressure gradient from Bellingham to Seattle and Bellingham to Portland.

As of 1000 hrs PST Friday the gradient looks like this:

Bellingham       1016.8MB

Seattle             1016.9MB

Portland           1016.6MB

Take the difference between the readings of Bellingham to Seattle and multiply times 5 to get approx wind strength over the north Sound. Any differential less than 1MB says it’s going to be very light. Take the difference between Bellingham and Portland and multiply times 10 for the approx wind over the central and south Sound. The wind will flow from areas of higher pressure to areas of lower pressure, so that tells the direction.  This will be the best way to figure out the answer to how much and when. Once again, as this a transitional period, the models are not in agreement. Two models show some semblance of a northerly starting to fill around noon and then building to a more reasonable 10 knots by 1400-1500 hrs.

Once again tides will not be bad. I use the current at Foulweather Bluff for what will be happening at Scatchet Head. It’s not an exact match but it is certainly close enough.

0948    .67 Ebb

1312    Slack

1600    1.01 Flood

1930    Slack

Satellite View – Click to enlarge

I also look at Point No Point because of the timing of the flood tide for the simple reason that the flood starts on the west side of the Sound first. So, if because of wind direction, there’s a question about which way to go, head west. There will probably be slightly more wind on that side as well.

Current. At Point No Point

1018    1.38 Ebb

1354    Slack

1554    .49 Flood

1854    Slack

All in all, it should be a nice day on the water, a little cool but not freezing.

Have fun and be safe.  

Ed. Note: Last week after Bruce’s Brief, alert reader Dan Tedrow asked for a list of resources. Check out Bruce’s response by going back to that Brief and scrolling all the way down.

Bruce’s Brief March 1-3, Center Sound Blakely Rock Race

Bruce’s Brief March 1-3, Center Sound Blakely Rock Race

Finally, our favorite series gets going this weekend and as usual, it looks like this could be a good one. The folks that have been sailing all winter ( South Sound Series) or got out last weekend for some practice will benefit as there should be some very nice breeze. For a while this week it looked like that high pressure (1045MB) that was centered over the mid BC interior might slight further to the south. Now it looks like it will stay to the north yet still dump some very cold air down the Fraser River Valley. There will also be some fairly strong breeze (25-35 knots of northeasterly) in northern end of the San Juans late Saturday and into early Sunday morning.

While there won’t be much breeze when you get to Shilshole Saturday morning, eventually the northeasterly out of the Fraser will follow the path of least resistance and wind its down Admiralty Inlet and into Puget Sound. It will start out as a light northerly but become northwesterly and build as the day goes on. How much and when? That is always the question, but right now you could see 20+ for the beat from Blakely Rock back to the finish. The models are not in agreement about when the northwesterly will come down the Sound but it will come.

Tidal Current at West Point

0806    Slack

1100    .53 knts Max Flood

1324    Slack

1512    .26 knts Max Ebb

1742    Slack

So not a lot of tide, the key will be when will the northerly back to the NW. It will also depend upon where they set the start line which direction you go at the start. If the line is well south of Meadow Point and you can take a quick hitch to get in under Meadow Point you can get a slight lift on starboard as well as some tide relief before you hold a long starboard tack up the Sound.

If the line is north of Meadow Point and the wind is to left of due north, just make sure you have a nice lane to sail in and head west. As you get to the west, watch the cog and sog, watch for a knock and tack when you are almost laying the top mark. In the reverse start it’s liable to be a bit crowded at the first mark which will make a port approach just a little dicey. Besides, a starboard approach will be greatly appreciated by the foredeck crew as it will give them more time to get everything set up for a nice bear away set.     

On the run to Blakely Rock, the breeze will tend to build on the west side of the Sound first so you’ll probably hold starboard until the breeze starts to lighten as you approach Bainbridge. Gybe out until you can gybe back to starboard for your final approach to the west end of Blakely Rock. On the run also track the true wind speed so you can give the foredeck crew plenty of warning about a different headsail for the all-important last beat to the finish. Regardless, you should have them set the headsail in the starboard groove so you can do a tack change if you need to as you approach Magnolia, Four Mile Rock. Remember, it can get shallow very quickly as you approach that imaginary line between Four Mile Rock and West Point. From the aerials earlier this week it appears there may be some shallower than normal water south of the line from the lighthouse to the West Point Buoy with shoal water extending further north of that line and slightly further out from the Point. Be cautious.

After West Point, if the current is neutral or ebbing hold starboard tack until you can just lay the area north of the south end of the Shilshole Breakwater. You get a slight knock as you get close, just keep track of where the finish line is and don’t over stand the finish.

Please leave your AIS on so I can watch the race. Have a great race, good luck and be safe.

Bruce’s Briefs 22-25 Feb. Saturday: Jim Depue, Girts Rekevics, & PT Shipwrights. Sunday: Frostbite (possibly!), and RVic Around the Buoy.

Bruce’s Briefs 22-25 Feb. Saturday: Jim Depue, Girts Rekevics,  &  PT Shipwrights. Sunday:  Frostbite (possibly!), and RVic Around the Buoy.

Plenty going on this weekend not to mention folks getting out to practice for the opening CYC Center Sound Series Race, Blakely Rock next weekend.

As you can see from the satellite image and the Langley Hill Radar we have a frontal system moving through the area today with a weakening low-pressure system sliding southeast from the central BC coast to off the mouth of the Columbia River by Sunday morning. This is not a particularly strong system so there will be some post-frontal breeze (westerly 20+knots) in the central and eastern Straits tonight and into tomorrow morning.  This will ease and become a southerly-southeasterly breeze(10-15knots) over the Salish Sea for most of the day before it begins to back off towards sunset.

By late Saturday another fairly strong ridge of high-pressure(1042MB) will begin to build over northern BC and this will bring east-northeasterly breeze to the northern San Juan Islands and into the Strait of JdF. Just how much cold air it will bring to the region depends on just how far south this high-pressure ridge will extend.    

As always, I’ve included the upper air charts that show the flow becoming almost straight across the Pacific by Sunday. I mention this because the jet stream got into the news this last week as a Boeing 787 Dreamliner was clocked at just over 800mph ground speed over the northeastern US as it picked up a 230mph tailwind from the jet stream which allowed it to arrive almost an hour ahead of schedule into London.

Satellite Image

So breaking it down by event, the Jim Depue Regatta can expect a fairly consistent southerly of 10-15 knots until late Saturday afternoon, should be some great sailing.

The Port Townsend Shipwrights Regatta should see the same 10-15 knots but more southeasterly as the breeze flows up Admiralty Inlet.

The Anacortes crowd will see the same southeasterly with the possibility of gusts near 20 in the morning before the breeze begins to ease about mid-afternoon.

Sunday will be a very different picture depending on where you’re sailing. In Seattle for the Frostbite Series, you’ll start off with a cold, light drainage easterly coming down from the Cascades which will begin to die about noon as the northerly works its way down the Sound. This northerly will start off light but may build to 10-15 knots by mid-afternoon.

With Victoria, this will be challenging especially in the morning as the breeze coming down the Fraser River Valley will be fairly strong, bringing 15-25 knots of northeasterly to the race area. This will begin to ease by about mid-afternoon as a northwesterly breeze in the Strait of Georgia displaces the northeasterly. This will bring a northerly of about 10 knots to the race area.

All in all, it looks like some great sailing this weekend. Just be safe, wear your life jacket, and have a great time.