Just when you thought summer was screeching to a halt, Mother Nature once again surprises us. Saturday looks pretty nice and just about perfect for power boaters, not so good for sailors until mid to late afternoon when a northwesterly will finally fill down the Sound. Sunday will be distinctly cooler as the remnants of a front pass over the Northwest Saturday night and into Sunday morning. Sunday morning will be cloudy however that will gradually burn off as the day goes on. Next week looks absolutely stunning with highs in the mid to upper 70’s. Welcome to Indian Summer in the great Pacific Northwest.
The Straits will display the usual pattern of breeze (10-15 knots) just east of Race Rocks which will gradually build to 20+ knots of westerly from mid afternoon on. This will fill down the Sound into the evening and then start gradually backing off into dawn on Sunday morning.
Sunday morning the Straits will remain fairly light and variable while in the Sound a northerly will start to come down in the early afternoon and build to around 10 knots by Sunday evening.
All in all, a perfect weekend to be out on the water. So go out, boat safely, and have a great weekend. As you’ve probably noticed, the leaves are turning early this year and squirrels are pretty active bulking up for the winter. All of which seems to indicate a cooler and wetter winter than normal. The NWS will have their big confab the end of this month with their forecast for the winter and I’ll provide you with those results.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
Don’t be dismayed by the rain this morning over the Sound, it’s not going to last. There will be scattered showers over the area through tomorrow but generally diminishing. As you can see from the surface charts the Pacific High is starting to weaken and that is allowing these weak frontal systems to sweep over the area. The upper air charts continue to feature that cutoff low that has persisted the entire summer over BC and SE Alaska. Summer is coming to an end but for Labor Day weekend it won’t be all bad.
For today you’ll have southerlies if you’re headed up to the San Juan Islands with some convergent zone activity from Edmonds to Everett. By Saturday morning the winds will be generally light and variable becoming westerly in the Straits and northerly in the Sound by mid afternoon. This pattern will repeat itself on Sunday with more clearing and hopefully more sunshine.
For Monday you can expect light southerlies in the Sound in the morning slightly stronger breeze in the San Juan Islands. This will decrease as the afternoon approaches with winds becoming northerly in the Sound and westerly in the Straits.
As I said, not all bad and at least we’re not trying to do anything on the East Coast or Hawaii this weekend.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
As summer begins to wind down towards Labor Day the weather continues to be very interesting. If you just look at the surface charts it looks pretty much like an ideal SeaFair weekend. The devil however is in the upper air charts where we still have that upper level low that has been bedeviling us all summer.
The Saturday morning 500MB chart shows that low with an attached front just off the coast. That will make its way over us late Sunday afternoon and early evening with a bit of rain. Hopefully SeaFair and the Blue Angels will be done by the time it gets here.
Overall for boaters in places other than Lake Washington, it will be a very nice weekend with the one exception being the central Straits of Juan de Fuca especially from Sheringham Point to Hein Bank where this afternoon and into Saturday you could have 35+ knots of westerly. Not unusual . Then as this weak front approaches there really won’t be more than about 15-20 knots in the Straits until late Sunday afternoon and into Mon morning as a the post-frontal westerly fills down the Straits again.
Have a great weekend and for those of you going to Lake Washington remember that all forms of law enforcement with be out there as this has become a great new revenue stream for any municipality bordering the Lake and probable cause means just being out there on the water. You are subject to a compliance inspection and if there are any signs of alcohol you can be asked to take a sobriety test. They will have the mobile sobriety check points set up at various launching ramps, where if you fail you can be booked, taken directly to jail, and your boat impounded. So be smart and have fun just don’t be stupid.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
As predicted, the Mad Dog guys crushed the record with Jungle Kitty second about 18 hours behind, followed by Broderna, Madrona and Mail Order Bride. Congratulations to all.
The weather up there did get a bit gnarly but not nearly as nasty as it’s going to get tomorrow mid afternoon with gusts to 40 from the south- southeast as another front passes over the area. The worst part is that in keeping with a fast moving frontal passage, the wind will clock steadily to the NNW and blow just as hard from that direction so the mid-Hecate Straits can expect winds to 35-knots between 2000 hrs and 2300 hrs. Backing off after that. Would not want to out there in mid-Straits for that.
As you can see from 24 hour surface chart there is that 1000MB low off of SE Alaska that is dissipating while another weaker but very fast moving 1009MB low aims right at Haida Gwaii (Queen Charlotte Islands) for Saturday with an attached frontal system that extends as far south as the Oregon/CA border. This will mean some unsettled weather for tomorrow and the possibility of scattered showers around the area on Sunday. Slight overcast on the 4th but not a washout. Break out the stern-mounted barbecues!
The main area to watch for the possibility of Small Craft advisories will be, as it has been all week, the Straits of Juan de Fuca from Sheringham Point to the San Juan Islands, and Admiralty Inlet. Remember also the wind will be the strongest in the afternoon , luckily the big flood tide of the day will be in the afternoon so while conditions (15-25 knots of westerly) won’t be great it won’t be the horrible mix-master you can get with wind against tide.
Have a great weekend, enjoy yourself and be safe at all times.
Ed. note: Bruce’s attention will now be completely focused on his Vic-Maui Race aboard Crossfire. He’s got his work cut out as a confusing weather pattern has dominated the northern Pacific for the last few weeks. Through the magic of technology, we’ll be hearing from Bruce during the race and will convey the juicy details as we can.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
The picture now is becoming clearer as the MD 20/20 boys continue to extend their lead. As of 1200 PDT today they were about 80 miles ahead of the next group of steak knife hunters and are only about 170 miles from the finish which at their current speed will have them at the finish sometime between 0300 and 0900 Thursday morning.
Speaking of the Steak Knife Hunters, that fleet has tightened up considerably as the Jungle Kitty went inside of Hunter Island while Madrona and Broderna went the more traditional outside route and closed up with Jungle Kitty now only about 6 miles ahead of Madrona and Madrona about the same distance ahead of Broderna. It is going to be a real drag race to the finish in light of the upcoming weather. Don’t be surprised to see Broderna pass both the monohulls tomorrow as the wind frees up and builds.
What is also becoming clear is that the fleet will be in for some breeze starting Thursday afternoon as a series of fast moving fronts will be making their way over the fleet. As you can see in the Thursday PM surface chart there is a 1009MB low with an attached front aimed right for Dixon Entrance (DE) with a frontal system that extends south to the Washington coast. This will have the wind build from the south-southeast in Queen Charlotte Sound (QCS) and the south Hecate Strait (SoH) to 10-20 knots from the south. This will work its way north to the North Hecate( NoH) and Dixon Entrance (DE) by late Thursday, early Friday and then it is going to crank up to 15-25 along the BC coast with 30+ in the open waters between the QC I and the coast, all from the Southeast to South.
By mid day Friday you’ll have the first front pass through the area and the wind will moderate to 10-20 in QCS, 15-20 SoH, and 20-30 NoH all from a generally southern direction. By Friday evening the barometer will start to drop again as another front approaches the race area.
By early Saturday the fleet can expect 25-30 in SoH, 20-25 NoH and DE. By mid day Saturday the next front will pass and the fleet can expect 30+ in QCS, 15-30 SoH, and 20-30 NoH and DE. By late afternoon Saturday conditions will moderate somewhat as a ridge of high pressure rebuilds along the coast. The fleet can then expect SSW breeze of 10-20 in QCS and SoH, WNW 10-15 NoH, and westerly 15-20 in DE. By late Saturday the fleet will be looking at WNW 15 in QCS, NW 15-20 SoH and NoH, and W 15-20 DE.
We probably don’t need to remind anyone that this can be one very nasty stretch of water and while this isn’t as bad as the storms of winter, these are not conditions to be taken lightly. The other factor will be just how tired these teams will be at this point in the race. Safety first, last, and always.
Ed. Note: Thanks to Bruce for providing all the weather insights, and thanks to Carl Sutter and the Fisheries Supply gang for serving as starting boat back in Port Townsend. We spoke to him a little while ago, and he was excited to be a part of this grand adventure. Finally, thanks to all of you for discovering this blog – please share the discovery!
As Bruce changes hats from Meteorologist from Afar to Meteorologist on the Water when he navigates Crossfire in Vic-Maui, we’ll all have a chance to provide our own critique! kmh
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
Mad Dog continues to dominate the fleet while the battle for steak knives sharpens. Mad Dog is roughly 70 miles from the next Check Point at Bella Bella and holds about a 60 mile lead on the Jungle kitty and Madrona while another pickle fork (Brodema) continues to slowly gain on the two monohuills.
It will be slow going this morning as we look at the big picture and when you compare today’s map with tomorrows you’ll see a very interesting shift in how the NWS is viewing that front and low pressure system we mentioned yesterday. The stationary 1014 MB in today’s map shows a front that is breaking apart as it approaches the coast. The Wednesday morning chart shows a an intact warm front over the Queen Charlotte Islands with a cold front coming in right behind it. 12 hours later it’s all gone, with a new low having formed in the same place offshore where the 1014 Mb low was this morning. The reason for this is in the upper atmosphere (500MB) charts. Those pesky upper level lows are now isolated above the jet stream and with not much to push them around they will just continue to form new surface lows with associated frontal systems. All relatively weak but as you can see, strong enough to break up that weak high pressure system that was over SE Alaska.
While it may be slow going this morning with the light air out of the NNW, by late afternoon and into the early evening the wind will back around to NW. After about 2200 hours the wind right next to the BC coast will once again drop into the 0 to 4 knot range and stay in the 6-10 knot range from the NW south of Calvert Island.
For the Mad Dogs it will mean a slow approach into the CP at Bella Bella however by 0400 what wind there is will start to back around to the W. By about 1300 it will be up to about 6-8 knots from SW and the MD’s should once again be launched and headed towards to finish. There will some light spots as they get to Dixon Entrance which will allow the pursing pack of jackals to close a bit however as I said earlier, it will take a collision with something big or a major gear failure to keep them from finishing first and breaking the existing course record.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
As of 0615 this morning the mighty Mad Dog after a bit of a slow night was once again moving towards a perfectly timed entrance into Seymour Narrows. At 1100 hours there are clearly too many folks, who have nothing better to do at work, trying to use the Tracker and it has now crashed. OUTSTANDING!
The overall picture is that at about 1115 Mad Dog was sighted off of the southern part of the town of Campbell River. At 1124 Mad Dog went flying by the Tyee Pool at Dick Murphy Park in almost perfect conditions for the cat, flat water and 6-8 knots of wind. Slack at the Seymour Check Point is at around 1145. Max Ebb (7.4 knots) is at 1445 which even at human powered speed means they’ll be into Johnstone Straits by about 1500 hours today. The next sound you will hear is the door slamming shut on the fleet on this year’s version of the R2AK.
The big picture is that the weak low we’ve been watching is moving slightly, and I mean very slightly faster, towards the Queen Charlotte Islands. On the Monday morning chart you’ll see this 1010MB low with its attached frontal system starting to push that weak 1028MB high off of northern California out of the way.
By Tuesday morning that frontal system is ever so slightly closer to race area however it is weakening as it runs into that 1025MB high situated over SE Alaska. This will have the effect of dropping wind speeds over the entire race area. Which will have little to no effect on Mad Dog. It will basically be a case of the rich getting richer at this point. Provided of course that MD doesn’t hit something big or break something important.
By Wednesday morning you’ll see the frontal system dissipating and a weak trough of low pressure starting to form over the race area. This will pull the breeze around to the west and the boats that are furthest to the north will benefit the most. MD will be reaching like a bandit and simply accelerating away from the fleet. The potential exists for MD to break the record to Ketchikan.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
A lot of us were surprised at just how fast some of the boats got to Victoria on Thursday in just about perfect conditions. Sunday’s 1200 start will be distinctly different as the wind will be light in the starting area and then build lightly from the west until you turn the corner at Trial Island and or duck inside to avoid the ebb tide. Max ebb at Trial Island will be about 1400 hours at 1.1 knots. Slack will occur around 1630 hours so for the rowers and paddlers it will be a simple matter of working the beach to stay out of the tide and travel the shortest possible distance up through the Islands and then depending upon the tide going through Dodd or False Narrows. The Flood will last until almost midnight so you should make good progress going at least to Nanaimo.
For the sailors, it will be how to get to the breeze in the northern part of the Strait of Georgia the fastest way possible which won’t be easy. It will be an on-the-water call however if you can sail up the inside and get into Trincomali Channel and then catch the flood tide to exit out through Porlier Pass and into the Strait of Georgia, that looks like a real possibility. From there you’ll be dealing with a light to moderate northwesterly and of course the tidal gate at Seymour Narrows. If you’re watching the wind in Johnstone Strait remember that the anemometer readings from Fanny Island at the west end of Hardwicke Island are intermittent and reading about twice the real wind speed. At this point it certainly looks like there won’t be a repeat of the thrash up Johnstone Strait that occurred last year.
The rest of the week doesn’t look too bad as the high off the coast is still not setting up in a very stable shape and there is a weak low pressure system associated with a cutoff upper level low that will make its way towards the BC coast late in the week which should give sailors a great ride north to Ketchikan. Maybe just in time to give sailors a southerly to get through the channel at Bella Bella.
Regardless, it’s going to be interesting to watch the tracker as they get to Campbell River and Seymour Narrows.
Good luck and stay safe.
Ed. Note: The R2AK certainly is not under any radars this year. But it’s great to see that the spirit of the event is still alive and well with many it it clearly for the adventure and not the steak knives. Last year’s thrash was one kind of R2AK while this year’s race promises something completely different. Makes me wonder what the Bieker proa Pure and Wild would do this year. You have to hand it to the Buchans, who reportedly pulled their inboard to make Madrona legal. Not surprising, the first leg was won handily by Mad Dog Racing, the super fast M32 cat. But if last year showed us anything, the best stories are likely to come from the other end of the fleet as they persevere to the north.
Fair winds, all. And I second Bruce’s thoughts on staying safe. –Kurt Hoehne
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
Pretty hard to fault last weekend with plenty of breeze and very warm temps however we knew it couldn’t last. All in all though this weekend won’t be bad and certainly won’t be a washout. More importantly it’s Leukemia Cup so get out and support this great cause and trust us, it will be a ton of fun. Not too serious racing and you will still have to put on your sunblock.
The surface charts show the remains of the front that went through last night and new, weak ridge of high pressure establishing itself over the Pacific NW but moving off to the east-northeast on Saturday. For Leukemia Cup this will mean light and variable winds in the early afternoon with an Interbay northerly developing as the days goes on. The rate at which it will develop will depend upon the amount of clearing over downtown Seattle and the therefore the amount of heating. Regardless, it will be fun.
For those of you going crabbing in the north Sound or Admiralty Inlet, get the pots down and up early as it is going to be breezy in the Straits in the late afternoon and early evening. The test fishery is suggesting that this should be another exceptional year for crabbing just be sure to have your shellfish license and mark your card when you catch those big, legal, males.
A couple of interesting features came up on the 96 hour surface chart with the early one showing the promising development of the Pacific High getting up to 1038 MB and becoming rounder and more stable, that’s the good news, especially for the Vic Maui and Pacific Cup Teams. More so for the Pacific Cup teams as they could almost sail a great circle course. It would be a little tougher for the Vic-Maui crews because they would have to contend with another one of those pesky upper level lows showing up over the Pacific Northwest. The upper air charts are showing some pretty large curves in the jet stream which means that this feature won’t last long. Mother Nature doesn’t like expending unnecessary energy. Needless to say, we are keeping an eye on this.
Have a great weekend, and be safe out there on the water. Also, thank you for the notes and questions you’ve sent me, excellent observations!
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
This could be the weekend that if there ever was a weekend to be out on the water and to be sailboat racing, this is the one. The setup is just about perfect as you can see from the surface forecast charts with a 1027mb high pressure system setting up inland of SE Alaska thus directing an offshore flow over the Pacific Northwest which will result in higher than normal temperatures and maybe, just maybe, some great breeze over the Sound. Put your sunblock on before you leave the house!
For the Blake Island Race this could be one for the books with breeze at the start and lasting the rest of the day. With this kind of wind the tides will have minimum effect. It will pay to remember that the current is constantly ebbing out of Colvos and as you approach Blake Island you will notice that the ebb will last longer and be further north even as the flood is supposed to start just after 1110 hours. The flood at West Point may start even earlier because of wind generated surface current. The good news is that with the abundant sunshine and the flood you’ll be able to easily see the wind hitting the ebb tide and creating that ruffled appearance on the water.
Tidal Current at West Point
0725 Max Ebb 1.27 knts
1110 Slack
1417 Max Flood 1.32 knts
1814 Slack
Before you leave the house in the morning you’ll want to check the wind at West Point and the wind history to see if it’s been holding from the NE all night and what it’s currently doing. Then check the rest of the stations further down the Sound and ferry wind. When you go out the south end of the breakwater at Shilshole you’ll want to grab the bino’s and check the flag at the light house at West Point. The reason for this is that it will dictate where you start on the line. If, as I suspect, the breeze is from the northeast at West Point you’ll want to be able to start in clear air just about 1/3rd of the way down from the pin on starboard tack. You’ll want to hold the starboard gybe ending up just outside the West Point Buoy with the ability to gybe to port and aim at Alki Point. This will keep you in slightly stronger breeze as you head down the Sound. You’ll hold the port tack until you either get lifted above Alki or you can gybe and lay the south end of Blake Island. Remember you can round Blake Island either direction, however in the northerly I can’t remember ever seeing it work to round the Island to port.
As you head towards the south end of Blake remember that in the northerly there is a huge light spot that extends from the south end of the Island to about ¼ of the way to the ferry dock at Southworth. As you get about ½ way across the Sound towards the south end of the Island go ahead and take another gybe to port until you can gybe back laying that imaginary point marked by the star in the picture.
You do this in the Sound where you’ll have more wind and less adverse current coming out of Colvos. Try not to sail between the star and the Island as the dead spot is much wider and there is an eastward flowing current along the south end of the Island.
Once you’re on final towards that point, it’s time to get set up to get some serious momentum built up for coasting through that light spot. That means having everything set up so that when the spinnaker you’re reaching with across the bottom end of the Island collapses and blows back into your face you can get it down quickly and easily so it won’t act as a brake.
You might keep the headsail down until you’ve gotten through that dead spot and into the northerly that’s on the backside of the Island. That way it won’t act as a brake as well. Once the wind is back and the current is pushing you to the north, get the headsail right up and start beating.
The short course is up the west side of the Island but that tends to be flukey in close so just try to hold the starboard tack which should lift you as you get to the north end of the Island. If you find yourself being headed on starboard and the wind speed dropping take a short tack to the east until you can tack and lay the beach on the south end of Bainbridge about a ½ mile west of Restoration. In the picture you can see the darker water (more wind) holding all the way up to Bainbridge with minefields on either side. You want to get up to that shore to take advantage of the back eddy that flows east along that shore.
Once you are on port and you’ve cleared Restoration Point if you’re not aimed at Elliott Bay Marina take another short hitch up on starboard until you can tack to port and be aimed somewhere between Elliott Bay Marina and Four Mile Rock. Remember the rule as you approach the beach south of West Point and don’t get inside of a line drawn from the lighthouse to Four Mile Rock. The tide may be flooding but it will still be plenty shallow in there. As you approach the bluff on port it will get puffy and there will be some knocks however hold on to the port board as long as you dare so that when you tack to starboard you are headed right at the Lighthouse. This will keep you out of the building flood tide. At West Point remember that the bar extends slightly further to the west this year. Hold starboard until you can tack to port and be well off the beach on the north side of the Point.
As you go in towards Shilshole remember the restricted zone at the entrance to the Ship Canal but get up in there so that you can take the starboard tack lifts as you approach the finish.
The same great conditions should also make the summer Vashon Island Race another epic event with possible record times since there probably won’t be that huge light spot from Robinson down to the finish at TYC.
For the 505’s in Bellingham, look for some light air in the morning but when the wind stabilizes from of all directions, the west, get ready for some great sailing.
For the rest of you cruisers, enjoy weekend and get to your favorite anchorage early, the marina at the North end of Blake Island is already almost full.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)