It was yet another impressive week of weather for the Pacific Northwest. Snow in the lowlands, and lots of snow in the mountains and in Whatcom County. We totally more than made up our rainfall deficient for the year. Having gone from 1.5 inches behind a week ago to almost 3 inches ahead today.
Then today we have 45 knots of southerly at West Point and that will last through the day and into the early evening before it starts to back off. As you can see from today’s surface chart we’ve got a moderate high pressure system off the coast (1024MB) with a dissipating low pressure system that has the isobars bunched over the Puget Sound hence the gale warnings for our waters. By tomorrow however that high pressure system will strengthen and move in over the Pacific Northwest giving us a brief respite from this never ending stream of wet frontal systems.
West Point wind speed/air pressure
Friday Radar
February 10 Surface Map
February 10 500MB
February 11 Surface Forecast
February 12 Surface Forecast
February 12 500MB
February 14 Surface Forecast
The weekend actually looks pretty good for sailing on Saturday, and great for power boating on Sunday with sunblock advisable for both days. Yes, SUNBLOCK! Actually, you should never leave the house without sunblock if you’re going on the water. Saturday you can expect 10-12 from the south in the morning for most of the central and south Sound with slightly more north of Pt. No Point and into the eastern Straits. As the days wears on you can expect the southerly to slowly back off in the central and south Sound with it becoming about 5 knots by late afternoon.
As you can see from the Sunday Surface Chart we will definitely be under a high pressure system with little wind in the Pacific Northwest, plenty of sun but not much breeze.
The really interesting chart is Valentine’s Day which is showing a pair of significant low pressure systems. The one(966MB) up in the Gulf of Alaska has a front that extends from 60N, 145W to 20N, 150E. WOW! The deeper low (960MB) off the north end of Vancouver Island doesn’t have a long front however both of these will be impacting our weather from Wednesday on into the next weekend. Keep an eye on this and if you have to do the delivery to Olympia for the Toliva Shoal Race, why not go this weekend? Just a thought.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
Technically, we are now entering the wettest time of the winter with temperatures expected to be slightly below normal. Overall this means more snow in the mountains with some very brief periods of lowland snow, don’t expect any major lowland snow events. As far as precip goes we are about 1.5 inches behind for the year however we could easily make that up over the next five days.
Friday’s Doppler
Friday’s Surface Chart
Saturday Surface Forecast
Sunday Surface Foreacast
Sunday 500MB
Tuesday 500MB
What about this weekend? Luckily for boaters if you haven’t been to the Seattle Boat Show, you’ll have another chance Saturday (the last day), then on Sunday you may already have plans as is some football game. (Ed. Note, this supposed game on Sunday loses a lot of its luster without the Seahawks. Oh to have another shot at those Patriots.) Otherwise, you can expect occasional rain with occasional wind. No big blows for the inland waters at least for the next couple of days but then on Thursday Feb 9th it looks like another strong front will impact the coast and the San Juan Islands. We’ll be watching that.
The Sunday 5 Feb 500MB chart shows an interesting feature with the upper air coming out of the chilly Canadian interior and colliding with the jet stream (the 564 line) off the California coast before it is pushed to the east. This is a very wet scenario.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
This time of the year certainly doesn’t disappoint. The weather here and around the country has been very interesting and shows little or no sign of becoming normal. The Great Lakes aren’t frozen over, the east shores of the Lakes are still getting lots of lake effect snow, the exceptional drought in the Southeast and California is all but gone and in the Pacific Northwest we are getting the effects of a “traditional” La Niña, if there is such a thing.
Current 500MB January 27
January 27 Surface Forecast
January 28 Surface Forecast
January 29 500MB
January 29 Surface Forecast
January 31 500MB
January 31 Surface Forecast
The surface charts for the weekend and into next week especially the one for tomorrow morning show an almost ear drum popping feature with a 1050MB High located over the Great Basin in the Western US. For perspective, the highest pressure ever recorded was a 1083.8MB in 1968 in Agata, Siberia. A fact made more interesting in that this was measured at 826 feet above sea level. This measurement was also made at the height of the Cold War so independent, third party verification was out of the question. I digress, anyway with that high pressure located where it is you can see why they have high wind warnings (70 knots with gusts to 80) up for Santa Ana winds thru the passes to the East of Southern California. That’s high enough that if taken on the beam of an 18 wheeler, it can be blown over, impressive. You can also see that this feature, while not moving very much will weaken as another low pressure system moves slowly towards the West Coast by late Tuesday and into Wednesday. What is interesting is that the interaction between these systems has the effect of weakening both which is good from any number of perspectives. You can also see from the 500MB charts that this isn’t going to change very much over the next few days. It will keep the relatively warm air coming into the PacNW while keeping the very cold Canadian air on the other side of the Cascades.
Over the weekend in the Pacific Northwest we’ll see this play out in what is becoming common for this winter. We’ll have fairly strong east-southeasterly wind off the coast (Small Craft Advisory) with some breeze showing up in the north Sound, east end of the Straits and up into the San Juan Islands. For the mid and south Sound light and variable winds until the next system gets closer on Tuesday or Wednesday. In between you can see another weather rule for the Pacific Northwest play through and that is that the best chance for a strong northerly is the first day the ridge of high pressure establishes itself over the area. Overall, it will be a pretty nice weekend in the Pacific Northwest. In fact, just about a perfect weekend for the Seattle Boat Show.
So, in the meanwhile, go to the BIG Seattle Boat Show! I did a quick walk thru yesterday and there is plenty of new, really cool stuff to see regardless of what kind of boater you are. As I said, I’ll be working at the show in the NMTA information booth Saturday and Sunday so please stop by and say hello. Also, I got some very good questions this week regarding potential trends in the upcoming weather. Thank you and I’m happy to answer those for you.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
It’s one of the great things about the weather in the Pacific Northwest, it’s never boring. As you can see from today’s surface chart there’s a pretty good sized 975MB low pressure system off the coast that is going to slightly weaken, as in go to about 980MB, and then not move very much at least through Tuesday. Then we’ll have three merging low pressure systems right off of our coast, all the while sending frontal systems ashore from mid-Baja to SE Alaska. You can say the California has needed the rain and the snow but you’d really like to spread it out over a longer time span. I don’t know what boaters in Marina del Rey are going to do since the latest pictures show boats moored in an endless sea of plastic bags that have washed into the marina. It going to be almost impossible to avoid sucking those into the raw water intakes. YUK!
January 20 Surface Forecast
January 20 500MB
January 21 Surface Forecast
January 24 Surface Forecast
January 22 500MB
January 22 Surface Forecast
January 24 500MB
So what does this mean for us? Pretty simple, occasional rain with occasional wind. Today we’ll have strong winds, gale warnings offshore, which will back off and then by tomorrow about mid afternoon you can expect building breeze offshore and the eastern end of the Straits of Juan de Fuca from Pt Townsend to the northern end of the San Juan Islands. By Sunday morning a stronger system will approach the coast bringing a strong east southeasterly breeze to the Straits and coastal waters.
While we probably won’t see more than about 15 knots of east southeasterly breeze in the central and south Sound if you’re headed out on the water be sure to check conditions on a regular basis.
As you can see from the upper air (500MB) charts, it’s probably not going to change very much. California is just going to keep getting fire-hosed for the foreseeable future.
What’s the good news? The Seattle Boat Show opens a week from today! I’ll be working for the NMTA (Northwest Marine Trade Association) at the Boat Show Information Booth on Saturday and Sunday of the opening weekend so please stop by and say hello.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
Happy New Year and let’s all resolve to use our boats more this year!
Not sure what the wind gods have against TTPYC and their Duwamish Head Race but it looks like this could be yet another frustrating day on the water. The key word for tomorrow is patience. There will be wind but not until later which will keep boats on the course well into the Seahawks game. There will also be light spots on the course particularly as you get towards the Des Moines side as you approach the finish after between 1500 and 1800 hrs. Generally speaking, the east side of the Sound north of Three Tree Point (TTP) will tend to be lighter because of the high hills above the water. Stay off the beach but watch your COG and SOG.
The tides shouldn’t be a huge factor unless it gets to 0 gusting to a ½ knot after about 1500 hrs. See below.
Tides at Alki Point
0706 Slack
0900 Flood .23
1100 Slack
1600 Ebb .76
2012 Slack
As you can see from surface charts we have a couple of weak low pressure systems trying to push their way onshore and move that persistent (and cold) 1039 MB high pressure system off to the east-southeast. Unfortunately, that high is still strong enough to keep these fronts at bay and by slowing their approach and weakening them as they get closer to the coast. There will be plenty of breeze in the coastal waters and strong pre-frontal south easterlies in the east and central Straits of JdF on Saturday and into Sunday however it will only show up in fits and starts in the central to south Sound.
Friday Surface Map
Friday 500MB
Surface map Saturday a.m.
Surface map Sunday a.m.
Surface Map January 10
As far as tactics go for the race, this will be a classic Puget Sound sucker punch with plenty of SE (8-10 kts) wind for the start and getting to TTP after which the breeze will start to drop with the Sound glassing off around Alki after about 1130. That’s when you’ll start to get puffs of breeze still from the SE. It will be very much like last year with breeze to Alki and then very puffy and light to get into the mark at Alki.
From Duwamish to Blakely Rock, if you can get around BR before sunset and get aimed back to the finish you stand a pretty good chance of finishing. Otherwise it’s going to very light behind BR. By 2000 hrs there will be fairly steady (8-10 kts) southeasterly over the entire course. Then it’s just a matter of making the time limit which is 13 hours after your start.
Oh, and it will be cold with a slight chance of snow mixed with rain. Stay warm and stay hydrated. Good luck!
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
First of all, Season’s Greetings to all of you and thank you for taking the time to, I hope, enjoy my musings about our most interesting weather.
I think most of us will be enjoying the weekend with friends and family as well as watching a lot of football (Go Hawks!!) even though it will be a relatively benign weekend on the water. Today is the day for wind and if you’re heading out to enjoy a long weekend on the water, head south in the northerly and then on Tuesday you can sail north in the southerly. The rest of the weekend we will be between fronts.
Today’s Radar, Wx
December 23 Surface
December 23 500MB
December 24 Surface
December 25 Surface
December 25 500MB
December 27 Surface
Dec 27 500MB
As you can see from the current surface chart and the Langley Hill radar at 1300 hours it’s going to remain wet for a while. However, after the front passes the winds will back off and we may even get a light dusting of snow in the lowlands. It won’t last until the 25th as the freezing level will head back up to the passes by Saturday afternoon.
The picture for the 27th shows another front over us and the isobars tightly bunched which will mean some wind with the rain. All in all, very typical!
Be safe, enjoy the holiday and let’s all decide we’re going to spend more time on the water in 2017 enjoying our amazing Salish Sea.
Ed. Note: And best holiday wishes to Bruce, Kerin, their families and their rather large circles of friends. Peace to all. –KMH
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
It may be cold but at least there’s very little white stuff forecast for the Salish Sea. The mountains will get more and California will even get some much needed moisture in the form of both rain and snow.
500MB December 16
16 December Surface Chart
17 December Surface Chart
500MB December 18
18 December Surface Chart
500MB December 20
20 December Surface Forecast
As you can see from the current surface chart our weather is currently being dominated by two significant high pressure systems. The first is a 1034 MB high situated over southern BC and the second is a very summer-like 1036 MB high located in the Pacific off of the mouth of the Columbia River. Our current cold weather comes from the former with very cold air coming down out of the Fraser River valley. As is typical of this time of the year, yet another huge low pressure system will come out of the Bering Sea and push these aside. See the 18 Dec Surface chart. Yep, that’s a 940 MB low with a frontal system that extends from the Aleutians to SE Alaska and then back to almost the Philippines. That is a major system and it will be visiting us about the 20th of December.
What does this mean for weekend boating? It will be cold however the breeze will drop off after today and in the central to south Sound conditions will be 5-15 from the south, a little stronger in the northern Salish Sea. If you’re a total curmudgeon and don’t have anything to do around the house in advance of the big holiday, you’ll find most of the anchorages pretty empty. So go out and enjoy yourself just be aware that hypothermia can be a real threat this weekend and if you fall into the water and can’t get out, you are pretty much dead. So please be careful.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
It’s pretty cool to be sitting at the computer looking out on a very wintry landscape complete with snow. It’s not going to last of course but it was probably just the right amount of snow for just about the right amount of time.
December 9 500MB
December 13 500MB
December 11, 500MB
December 11 Surface
December 10 0700 surface chart
December 10 Surface
December 9 Surface
December 13 Surface
Friday Noon Doppler
Friday Water Vapor Image
As you can see from the surface charts we’ve got another low pressure area off the coast with another front that will be coming through this afternoon bringing warmer temps and more rain. The lows off of our coast are fairly weak and north of the jet stream, see the 564 line on the 500MB charts. I mention this because the Tuesday 500MB chart shows the possibility of more cold air coming our way from the interior of Canada.
Why Winterize?
Have you gotten your boat winterized yet? Also, don’t think that just because you’re moored in saltwater that freezing won’t be a problem. The reason is that since the soil above the marina’s is super saturated with rain water it will continue to run off the hills and into the marina’s. Since it’s freshwater it will stay on top of the warmer saltwater and on still nights when it gets below freezing, it may freeze especially next to the shore. So freshwater can also be in your thru-hulls and if you don’t have a heater running or if you leave the locker doors closed over the thru-hulls, they can freeze and cause real problems.
As far as this weekend goes, it is simply going to be wet and while not too windy in the central and south Sound, the San Juan Islands and the north Sound are going to be breezy thru Sunday afternoon. In other words, if you want to go winter cruising and have the moorages all to yourself, head to the south Sound.
Crabbing at 2300
The other interesting feature this week will be the tides on Wednesday. We’ll have the lowest tide of the winter on Wednesday night which will be a -3.2ft tide at 2300 hours. If it’s calm you can actually go wading on the north side of Meadow Point and get Dungeness crab in the eel grass beds. Needless to say, dress appropriately and even though you’re just wading, wear a life jacket.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
On November 30th Greg Allen of YachtMasters NW and Paul Zimmer and Ryan Parker co-owners of S3 Maritime announced they were merging these two well established and well respected companies which will now be operating as S3 Maritime. YachtMasters has been located on Lake Union for the last four decades while S3 has been located just inside the Locks on the Lake Washington Ship Canal for the last nine years. As both companies continue to grow, it only made sense to consolidate their work forces and facilities to better serve their growing markets.
From left to right: Paul Zimmer, Greg Allen, Ryan Parker.
Both companies are well known for providing high quality and high tech services to the recreational and commercial yacht market. Each company brings a unique set of skills to this new endeavor. S3 is well known for their wide range of maritime expertise while YachtMasters has a rigging department and a custom fiberglass construction department to add to their services. While S3 has a large mix of commercial and recreational clients, YachtMasters is known for supplying custom, state-of-the-art, fully integrated electronic packages for larger recreational vessels.
This new operation will be based out of S3’s new 18,000 sq ft facility located in the Salmon Bay Marine Center at 2360 W. Commodore Way, Suite 200, in Seattle. This is on the south side of the Lake Washington Ship Canal and has convenient moorage for vessels to 100+ feet. They will also be exhibiting the Big Seattle Boat Show coming up in January at Booth #2418 located on the Electronics Concourse above the main floor.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
So while the weather wonks have gotten us all wound up about the possibility of snow on Saturday night, Sunday night, and Monday morning, we’re just happy there’s a great possibility of wind for TYC’s Winter Vashon Race on Saturday. Currently (1300 hrs Friday), There’s plenty of breeze from West Point north so if you’re doing the delivery south to Tacoma, it’s really not going to be too bad. Plus, there was certainly a great party last night at TYC. It’s today that could be very entertaining.
(Editors Note: This is getting out late – early Saturday morning – so be sure to spread the word that Bruce’s words of wisdom are here for the taking)
It’s interesting that none of the models can really agree on what’s going to happen this weekend. While snow is good for headlines and readership, reality may be quite different. No question, it’s going to get colder over the next couple of days but measurable snow in the lowlands? I’m not so sure about that.
As you can see from the surface chart today we’ve got another monster low up in the Gulf of Alaska with an attached front aimed right at the coast from Seward south to Crescent City. This will blow thru today and leave us with a direct onshore flow for the weekend which bring moisture in from the Pacific to meet up with cold air that will be moving south from the interior of Canada. Yes, excellent conditions for snow, however they do have to be perfect for snow to occur in the Puget Sound area.
December 2 Surface Chart
December 2 500 MB
December 3 Surface Chart
December 4 500 MB
December 6 500 MB
December 6 Surface Chart
The best part of this is that it really does look like wind for tomorrow. Not too much to make it uncomfortable and as long as you finish before it about 1900 hours tomorrow night it should be a fairly consistent 5-15 knots of south-southwesterly breeze in the morning that may bump up slightly to 10-20 from the SW in the afternoon.
What does this mean for the race course? Actually there should be some wind, even in Colvos and not like last year’s drag racing from hole to hole, but we’ll see. As always the current will be going the right direction however there are rivers of current in Colvos so you’ll want to watch the COG and SOG to see if you can stay in the axis of the current. (The NOAA current predictions are here – look for Anderson Point) The breeze will be coming in from the coast so it will be puffy and shifty from the southwest in the Passage so watching the fleet will be key. Remember also that out of the 65 boats entered, there are 18 in the Cruising and Commodore Classes that will be starting about 30 minutes ahead of the PHRF fleet and there are some excellent sailors in those early starting classes.
You’ll be starting just before max ebb at the Narrows so the usual rules apply; get west as fast as you can from the start fighting to stay in clear air. Don’t get too close to the bottom end of Vashon and remember that stronger current at the bottom end of Colvos is on the west side.
As the puffs come across Colvos Passage you’ll want to soak down after the puff has hit and your speed starts to build, don’t soak down to fast. Stay in the puff and don’t get too close to the Vashon shore as the puff will lift off the water as it approaches the Island.
As you approach the turning mark off the north end of the Island, don’t mess with the ferries, and be ready for a long starboard tack to Point Robinson, visibility may be low so know the compass course to Point Robinson and don’t sail too far above rhumb line because there will be less wind closer to Vashon. Also have you’re barber hauler rigged for starboard tack since it will probably get more reachy the closer you get to Point Robinson and the further away from the Island you get.
From Point Robinson to the finish it should be an almost dead beat. Slack tide is around 1430 hours going to a max flood around 1630 hours. With days of southerly wind, there won’t be much help in the flood. It will however be more sloppy choppy out in what flood there is. Since the breeze is liable to be more from the southwest, you’ll want to tack towards the Island once you are south of Robinson . just don’t get in too close. When you are on starboard tack, the puffs will be lifts, the water will be smoother and you should gain on the boats that stay too far out.
Know precisely where the finish line and remember that in the southwesterly, you’ll be lifted as you come across Dalco and the current normally flows to the northwest along the slag pile.
Then there’s the delivery back to Seattle. Remember I mentioned it was going to get colder on Sunday. That’s because there will be a cold breeze coming down out of the Canadian interior right down into the Pacific Northwest which will mean a 15-20 knot northerly until late in the afternoon on Sunday. Perfect if you have to deliver the boat south to Olympia, not so good for going north to Seattle or Everett.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
