Author: Bruce Hedrick

Bruce’s Brief’s: Wx for 8, 9, and 10 Feb. Remember last Friday? Simply Repeat.

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Weather has been getting a lot of coverage this week and now we are going to get more of the same this weekend and into next week, starting with significant snowfall tonight extending into tomorrow morning. Along with the snow we’ll have more gusty northeasterly breezes with the northern Washington counties and southern BC getting the worst of it. 40+ knots with gusts to 60! For the central and southern Sound 25-35 with higher gusts.

The chart for today shows why and that is that monster 1052MB high-pressure system over the interior of BC that will funnel cold air into the Pacific NW through the Fraser River Valley. The forecast chart shows this high building to 1055MB which will create a pressure differential of 54MB which is huge. Batten down those hatches.

  • February 8 Surface Chart
  • February 9 Surface Forecast
  • February 10 Surface Forecast
  • February 11 500MB
  • February 11 Surface Forecast
  • February 12 Surface Forecast

The other feature of note is that low-pressure system just to the north of Hawaii. This is not moving very far or very fast and as a result will bring high winds (40+ knots of northerly), high seas (waves of 60+ feet), and plenty of rain which will cause more flooding especially on the north shores of Kauai and Oahu. When you go to the 72Hr 500MB chart you’ll notice that this has become a cutoff low. Most of the time these don’t amount to much however there have been some significant events linked to these, The Perfect Storm, The Fastnet that took 18 lives, the Sydney-Hobart Race that took 9 lives, and Hurricane Sandy. This will bear watching.

I have also included a satellite pic from GOES West because with any kind of luck these will be the last B&W pics we have to deal with because unless something goes really wrong GOES 17 will come online next week with full color and higher resolution pics. By higher resolution I mean being able to pick out individual thunderstorm cells, squalls, and a host of other interesting weather phenomena.

Check your boat today if you have time and remember that there is still significant freshwater on top of Puget Sound especially near where rivers and creeks feed into the Sound. Freshwater can get into your thru-hulls and when we have those prolonged freezing spells it can freeze and crack those fittings. So leave all your locker doors open especially around sinks, the thru-hulls for the head, and the raw water intake for the engine. Set a heater on low and keep the air circulating. It doesn’t take much to keep that water from causing damage. While you’re there give the mooring lines and fenders a close inspection as well. 

Stay warm and have a great weekend.

Ed. Note: Just because I can, I want to write the words snowpocolypse and stormageddon. As part of the media, I want to be sure to my bit to further the hype. I feel better now. –KH

Bruce’s Brief for Feb 1-3. Snow? New Low Coming with Wind

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Bruce’s Brief for Feb 1-3. Snow? New Low Coming with Wind

It’s been a great week with relatively nice weather and a stellar Seattle Boat Show. And a big thank you to all of you that attended my talks at the Show. That was fun.

Today’s surface analysis chart shows a couple of key features we discussed this week at the show. The first being the frontal system that will move over us today attached to a weak 995MB Low with a weaker 996MB Low immediately to the southwest. The latter of these will move onshore and be broken up by our coastal buffer zone.

The other key feature is that relatively innocuous looking low-pressure system(1005MB) in the Pacific off the coast of California.  This bears watching because of two indicators on the chart. The first being how far it will move in 24 hours as designated by the arrow ending in an X. Immediately above the X is 83 which means that this low is expected to significantly intensify by dropping to 983MB, a whopping 22MB drop in pressure. As you can see from the 24-hour surface forecast chart, this low will become rounder, stronger, with a much better-defined front.  It’s not a large low-pressure system but it will pack a punch bringing significant rainfall(5”-8”) to the coastal areas from San Francisco south to San Diego and to the burn areas that have no vegetation to anchor the slopes. It will also bring as much as 2-feet of snow to the mountains.  The other scary part is that this low seems to like the aspect of living just off the coast of San Francisco where it will continue to pump moisture ashore along with some very breezy conditions.  This system will be one to watch.

  • February 1 500MB
  • February 1 Surface Analysis
  • February 2 Surface Forecast
  • February 3 500MB
  • February 3 Surface Forecast
  • February 4 Surface Forecast
  • February 5 Surface Forecast

What does this mean for the Salish Sea? The coastal regions will have the usual somewhat breezy 15-25 knots of post-frontal south-westerlies that will continue to clock around to the north-northwest through about mid-day Saturday. This will result in a weak and very temporary onshore flow down the Strait of JdF which will end around mid-afternoon as another weak low-pressure system will move over the area by Saturday evening.

For the central and south Sound winds will be light tomorrow morning however as the high over central BC begins to build, a northerly flow will develop over the area getting up to maybe 15 knots over the central Sound.

It’s the north Sound, San Juan Islands, and the Strait of Georgia that will see the biggest change as that high will drive a blast of cold air down the Fraser River Valley, spilling into the Salish Sea. This will be significantly colder than what we’ve seen so far this year.  There will also be significant wind associated with this blast especially in the northern San Juans and southern part of the Strait of Georgia. This will start to develop late Saturday night and continue into Sunday with the highest wind speeds out of the northeast occurring late Sunday night and into Monday morning when this area could see steady winds to 40 with gusts to near 50. With the very low temps and the possibility that as this blast runs into the moisture coming in off the Pacific we could get snow with some icing. This will bring down trees and power lines.

This snow event could then move south from Bellingham gradually weakening as it does so.

Have a great weekend.

Bruce’s Brief: Wx for 25, 26 and 27 January. The Big Seattle Boat Show!

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Bruce’s Brief: Wx for 25, 26 and 27 January. The Big Seattle Boat Show!

If you’re thinking about getting out and doing some boating, this would be a great weekend for it until about Sunday night and into Monday morning. True, winds will be light until Saturday so maybe it’s a good time to go to the Big Seattle Boat Show to kick some hulls and check out the latest gear.

The charts and Sat picture show the reason for all this nice weather which is sort of good news and bad news. The good news is that it’s not rainy, cloudy, gray and cold. The bad news is that we’re not building any snowpack in the mountains. As you can see we’ve got a relatively strong ridge of high pressure over us as noted by the three high-pressure systems. The 1034Mb being right over the Salish Sea with a flanking 1032MB systems to the north and south. Just how strong this ridge is can be seen on the 500MB chart for today. The jetstream (the bold 564 line on the 500MB chart) is being directed into the BC coast north of Haida Gwaii and then east before it goes south into the central US. This will continue for the foreseeable future.

  • January 25 500MB
  • January 25 Surface Analysis
  • January 26 Surface Forecast
  • January 27 500MB
  • Jaunary 27 Surface Forecast

There will be a nice northerly flow over the Salish Sea on Saturday and Sunday however as the high consolidates and moves to the east on Sunday afternoon and into the evening, it will also build. This will bring a strong offshore flow to the North Sound and Straits Sunday night. This will means easterly winds to 30-knots in the Straits and NE winds to 25-knots in the north and central Sound. This will begin to ease on Monday afternoon and into Tuesday, with high-pressure still dominating our weather well into the coming week.

January 29 Surface Forecast

Too bad for the skiers but good for the boaters.

Enjoy the weekend.

I’ll be giving a couple of talks on Marine Weather at the Seattle Boat Show, the first being Saturday night at 1800 hours up on the Club Level at Stage #5. The second will be on Wednesday at 1415 hours at Stage #3 in the North Hall. I will also be at the Information Booth this weekend and the next. If you’re at the Show please stop by and say hello.

Ed. Note: Bruce will be giving weather programs at the Seattle Boat Show tomorrow at 6 pm on Stage 6 and Wednesday, January 30 at 2:15 on Stage 3 in the North Hall. He’ll also be at the NMTA (Northwest Marine Trade Show) booth at various times during the show. Stop by and say hi!

Bruce’s Brief January 18-21 Hurricane Force Winds at N. End of Vancouver Island

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Bruce’s Brief January 18-21 Hurricane Force Winds at N. End of Vancouver Island

Plenty of breeze headed your way this afternoon, this evening and into Saturday morning especially if you live on the coast, Vancouver Island, eastern end of the Strait of JdF, and Haida Gwaii. The central Sound will get some wind like maybe 25 knots from the south-southeast early tomorrow morning before easing off. The Doppler Radar at Langley Hill on the coast is already picking up the start of this activity off the north coast of Oregon.

Enhanced Radar Image, Langley Hill.

Environment Canada has already issued a Hurricane Force Wind Warning for the Northern part of Vancouver Island for winds of 70-75 knots near headlands. They are also forecasting waves of 30-40 feet, YIKES.

The Surface Analysis for today shows this low (988MB) with attached frontal system running into a weak ridge of high pressure that extends from southern Washington to about mid California. The Surface Forecast Chart for tomorrow morning shows that this low has now intensified to 973MB, is now quite round with a very tightly packed isobar structure and the warning box: Hurcn Force. This chart also shows that this rapidly moving front is now over the Cascades headed in a northeasterly direction and pushing that weak ridge of high-pressure off to the south. This will open the door for more storm activity this coming week.

  • 00 Hour 500MB Forecast January 18
  • 48 Hour 500MB Forecast January 18
  • Surface Analysis January 18
  • Surface Forecast January 19
  • Surface Forecast January 20
  • Surface Forecast January 21
  • Surface Foreast January 22

The Surface Forecast Chart for 20 Jan shows a plethora (11 to be exact) of low-pressure systems strewn across the Pacific, including a 959MB whopper in the mid-Pacific which is moving our way directed by the jet stream, see the 500MB charts.

The 21 Jan chart does offer us some relief as the 959MB Low is now forecast to stall and weaken in the mid-Pacific as a ridge of high-pressure rebuilds along the coast giving us light air and some very nice mid-winter conditions.

Current Satellite image, Ocean Prediction Center.

By the 22nd of January  the high off of San Francisco has now built to 1034MB and is now linked to a 1038MB high over northern Nevada. This will continue to help direct storm activity to the north of the Pacific Northwest however winter is a long way from over.

The Big Seattle Boat Show starts on the 25th of January. I’ll be working in the NMTA Information Booth Friday and Saturday both weekends so stop by and say hello if you’re at the show.

Bruce’s Weather Brief for 11, 12, and 13 January 2019, A Perfect Time for Winter Cruising

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Bruce’s Weather Brief for 11, 12, and 13 January 2019, A Perfect Time for Winter Cruising

Today’s surface analysis shows a very interesting and complex series of features. The short story is that except for the coast for today and into tomorrow, the weather will be unseasonably pleasant for this time of the year. A perfect time to take the boat out and go to any number of secluded and relatively unoccupied anchorages. It will still be on the cool side but what else would you expect?

Today’s satellite picture

The overall pattern shows that the Pacific Northwest is still somewhat protected by a very nice ridge of high-pressure (1028mb) on the other side of the Cascades. The other feature is the 500mb chart which has the jet stream still coming almost straight across the Pacific until it wraps around an upper level low off the Southern California coast and is directed due north on the other side of the Sierra Nevada and Cascade Ranges. This the reason why we will have no storms headed our way at least until mid next week. Check today’s sat pic and then compare tomorrow to see where that well-defined frontal system is headed.

Click any image to enlarge.

  • 500MB Forecast January 11
  • Surface analysis January 11
  • Surface forecast January 12
  • 500MB Forecast January 13
  • Surface Forcast January 13
  • 500MB January 15
Surface forecast January 15

It does get more interesting on the 48-hour surface forecast chart where we find the deepest low so far this winter (956mb) just off the Aleutian Islands. It is still being directed almost due north while the very weakened tail of the attached frontal system may drag over the Pacific NW later in the week. It will almost certainly be significantly degraded as it encounters our coastal buffer zone.  It is also interesting to note that our protective ridge of high-pressure will strengthen slightly. This will bring a weak offshore flow over the area giving us some patchy morning fog In some of the usual areas with easterly flow through the passes but generally clear conditions. The weak low-pressure system(994mb) off the California coast will drift slowly to the southeast and may bring more rain into Southern California. By later in the week this low catch the northern bound drift of the jet stream and then dissipate off of Northern California. Just behind this low is another rapidly intensifying low- pressure system (998mb) which will probably suffer the same fate.

As we transition to this offshore flow it was interesting to note this morning the wind pattern in the eastern end of the Strait of Juan de Fuca. 28-knots of southeasterly at Smith Island with 20-knots of northerly at Race Rocks. Just a friendly reminder to always check the conditions on your VHF before you head out and log the pressure readings from around the Pacific NW so you can see if something else may be coming in.

Enjoy the weekend and get ready for the Big Seattle Boat Show starting on Jan 25th, it is going to be a great one.

Bruce’s Brief for January 4-6 and the TTPYC Duwamish Head Race

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Bruce’s Brief for January 4-6 and the TTPYC Duwamish Head Race
Click to enlarge satellite image.

As they will be saying on the docks before Three Tree Point’s Duwamish Head Race at Des Moines tomorrow morning, “You should have been here yesterday.” Plenty of breeze this morning, however, the front has passed, the post-frontal onshore flow has set in and as the gradient eases this afternoon, the breeze will begin to drop. By tomorrow morning we should start to see a weak offshore flow develop which will bring light air to the central Sound. This will bring a mix-master of different winds as we wait for the next front to come onshore Sunday. The problem will once again be that as these fronts hit the coastal buffer zone, they can slow which may allow the onshore flow to stay longer. Maybe even leaving us with a weak northerly in the morning.

Luckily the tides won’t be much of a factor.

Tidal Current at Alki:

  • 0942   Max Ebb      .3 knts
  • 1230   Slack
  • 1354   Max Flood    .16 knts
  • 1606   Slack
  • 2112   Max Ebb      .64 knts

Tactics for this race will be tough so always go back to basics. Know the rhumbline, watch COG and SOG, don’t get too far off the rhumbline and watch the smart guys in the fleet. There will be plenty holes to fall into, so watch what is happening around you so be aggressive trimming and shifting gears. When it gets really light, don’t let too much weight accumulate in the cockpit and don’t hesitate to put the dogs in the house. Just keep them happy, well-informed, well-fed and well-hydrated….

  • January 4 Surface Analysis
  • January 5 500MB
  • January 5 Surface Forecast 2019
  • January 6 Surface Forecast
  • January 7 500MB
  • January 7 Surface Forecast
  • January 8 Surface Forecast

The other thing to remember is to not be lulled into complacency by the light air. Sometime Saturday evening this front will come onshore and bring plenty of breeze with it. By late Saturday night and into early Sunday we could have 35-40 knots of southerly. This will ease to 25 knots by early Sunday morning

The surface charts for this weekend show a very interesting pattern, especially the one for tomorrow morning which shows a compact low-pressure system (982MB)off the California coast headed almost due north along the coast. Plenty of tightly wound isobars which usually means plenty of wind. Again, that all depends on the timing of the arrival and how much the coastal buffer zone will degrade the front.

Click to enlarge wind speed vs. pressure at West Point

As has been the case this winner, the 72 and 96-hour charts are very interesting showing the formation of yet another deep low (974MB) off the coast with that note Developing Hurricane Force. Right now it is headed right at us and could be a factor late next week.

Notice also the 72-hour 500MB chart which shows a flattening out of the jet stream which will continue to bring warm and wet conditions to the Pacific Northwest. Those of you watching Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly charts will also recognize that these two features are indicative of an El Niño so don’t be surprised if the NWS declares one this week. Oh wait a minute, the NWS is closed. Oh well, weather just isn’t that important to some folks. Kurt is kicking me under the table and telling me to get back to the weather.

Have a great weekend, and be safe out there.

Bruce’s Happy New Year Brief, Wx for 28, 29, and 30 Dec.

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Bruce’s Happy New Year Brief, Wx for 28, 29, and 30 Dec.

It’s raining now because of a passing warm front and there is more on the way, just look at the Doppler and Saturday pix. More importantly, it will be a bit breezy tomorrow as a cold front goes over our area tomorrow afternoon. As far as rainfall goes for the month we are about .25” above our average but we are still about 2.18” behind for the year.

We are just really lucky we don’t live on the East Coast. For example, take Wilmington, NC where as of today they are at 101.27” for the year. The annual average for a year is 57.61”. The old record for the wettest year was 83.65” set in 1877. Note also that the total rainfall for the 17 wettest days was 58.96” So no whining about how much rain we get out here.

Click any image to enlarge.

  • December 28 500MB
  • December 28 Surface Analysis
  • December 29 Surface Forecast
  • December 30 Surface Forecast
  • December 31 500MB
  • December 31 Surface Forecast
  • January 1 500MB
  • January 1
    Surface Forecast

Today’s chart and sat pic show a relatively strong(1033MB) high-pressure system off the coast of San Francisco. This feature combined with the jet stream is doing a pretty good job of deflecting the worst of the storms into SE Alaska and northern BC. These lows still have trailing frontal systems, one of which will drag over us tomorrow afternoon bringing strong (30-35 knot) southerly breezes to the coast and the Salish Sea. Tomorrow morning might be a good time to go check those mooring lines and fenders.

Once again the 48-hour chart shows an impressive series of low-pressure systems extending from a 945MB low in the Gulf of Alaska to a 977MB in the central Pacific with more low-pressure systems set to form. Luckily, that high-pressure system mentioned above along with the jet stream will keep us taking a direct hit. The bad news is that the jet stream will bring these low-pressure systems back into the upper mid-West as snowmakers and more rain to the southeastern US.  

At least for New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day, it looks like it won’t be raining. Plenty of time to go out and do a little bit of maintenance on the boat.

Happy New Year!

-Bruce and the entire team (Ed note: That’s Kurt, his dogs and all those who’ve contributed this year) at Sailish.com.

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 21, 22, and 23 December. Fronts Coming!

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Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 21, 22, and 23 December. Fronts Coming!

I guess interesting is really an understatement when it comes to describing the weather over the last week. Two high wind events and one tornado, that never happens! Plus in one week we went from being behind in the amount of December rainfall to as of this morning being ahead by about .3 of an inch.

While we will get a brief respite from rain and wind today there are another series of fronts coming ashore Saturday and Sunday. For those of you who are wondering about Christmas Day, it looks like that will be a fairly nice day as in no rain and very little wind.

Click any image to enlarge.

  • December 21 Surface Analysis
  • December 22 Surface Forecast
  • December 23 Surface Forecast
  • December 24 500MB
  • December 24 Surface Forecast
  • December 25 500MB

The chart for today shows the remains of that front that went through yesterday just entering the Bay area with a weak ridge high-pressure developing behind it. Behind that ridge, you have a series of low-pressure systems with the possible development of yet another one off of the Oregon coast.

On the 22nd you can see a  strong low-pressure system (983MB) has developed off of our coast however it will be driven up into BC by that nice ridge of high pressure setting up over the Cascades and running up into Canada.

The really interesting chart is the one for the 23rd which shows the attached frontal system from the low that is going into BC dragging over the Salish Sea with another series of lows developing behind it. In fact, this chart breaks the old Roser Low Count Index* record of 11 by having 14 defined low-pressure systems on one chart. What breaks we get will be few and far between.

Satellite Image

The other factor to be aware of over the coming week will be that will be having the highest tides of the year from now until the 28th of December which when combined with high wind events can cause significant damage and flooding to some shorelines. Since most of our storms come with south winds this shouldn’t be a big deal it’s when the breeze comes from the northeast, north, or northwest that we usually have problems.

Have a great weekend and Holiday Greetings to All and good luck to the Joy Ride Team on the Sydney to Hobart Race. The start, while on the 26th of December down there, means about 1500 hours here on Christmas Day. It will be streaming live on the Internet. 

*The RLCI was developed by Capt Jim Roser as a quick way to gauge the probability of bad weather coming into the Pacific Northwest. The higher the number, the higher the chance of bad weather.

Bruce’s Briefs: Stormy Weather Advisory

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Plus need a last minute gift for the boater in your crowd? Go to the bottom of this update. *

As my friend Brandon Baker at Elliott Bay Marina reminded me last week, “It is that time of the year!” No, this is not a duplicate of last week, we simply have yet another strong system coming ashore tomorrow. 

It’s not often you get so many colors in the Weather Advisory from the NWS but yesterday’s was particularly colorful and that is usually not a sign of good weather. 

Note especially the deep purple for the coast and the eastern end of the Straits. It’s not for a gale warning, it’s a storm warning, one step below hurricane. So while this won’t be as strong as last Friday it will be right up there. Here’s why; note in the current surf analysis the print right off of our coast, the part that says developing storm. The low just below that may be only 1004MB however it is going to strengthen as it comes on shore.

The chart for today shows why this system will bear watching.

Our innocuous 1004MB low has become a 984MB storm that is now very tightly wound and headed right into central Vancouver Island with an attached cold front extending almost all the way to the Hawaiian Islands. It is moving very quickly and once it hits the coastal buffer zone it will weaken as it moves inland. The other part is that with the current jet stream we have a classic Pineapple Express that will bring plenty of rain and a rising freezing level. That combination can cause low land flooding as our minimal snow back degrades in the rising temps.

The day will come…

So if it’s not going to be as severe as last Friday and I properly secured my vessel, what’s the problem? First off, it may not be that severe but it’s going to be close. Second, in all jostling your vessel has been through, remember that chafe is a relentless enemy and works 24-hours a day on those mooring lines. Remember also that those fenders can be bounced up and on to the dock so those need to be checked as well.

The timeline for this system (done yesterday) is roughly as follows, again, this is not precise so prepare in advance!

Recommended by Bruce and your humble editor.

*I have said recently that the weather is getting interesting however I never thought that would include a tornado in Port Orchard. However, just in time for the Holiday Season, if you need a last minute gift for the boater on your list I would highly recommend the latest edition of Modern Marine Weather by David Burch. I stopped by Starpath in Ballard the other to pick up this book and I must say that is the best work on marine weather I have seen. It is very up to date, very complete, easy to read and understand, and you should probably have a copy at home as well as on the boat. You still have time to pick one up at the Starpath Shop in Ballard at 3050 NW 63rd Street or you can order it online at www.starpathpublications.com.   Highly recommended.

Bruce’s Storm Brief – Don’t be Complacent!

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Bruce’s Storm Brief – Don’t be Complacent!

Don’t be lulled into complacency by the relative calm we’re currently experiencing in the Seattle area, the wind is coming. It just looks like our coastal buffer zone has once again done its job by slowing the approach of this system and deflecting it into BC. As you can see from the plots of wind speed and barometric pressure at Smith Island, West Point, and Destruction Island, the pressure is still dropping. The other interesting feature of these graphs is the slope of the barometric pressure line which shows how much faster the pressure is dropping up at Smith Island and how much faster the wind speed is increasing. This would tell us that, as we said yesterday, conditions will be more severe along the coast (52 knots at Destruction Island now), in the eastern end of the Straits and the northern end ofAdmiralty Inlet than in the central and south Sound.

Click any image to enlarge.

Right now, it appears the front will pass the coast about mid-afternoon bringing stronger breezes into the central and south Sound with it. This will persist through the early evening before the post-frontal conditions kick in and the pressure gradient begins to ease over the area. The next system will start to show up in the offshore waters early Saturday morning and then in the eastern end of the Straits by midday Saturday. Conditions in the central and south Sound won’t be bad on Saturday or Sunday however you should always check on conditions because there could be pockets of 20-25 knots of southerly.

Click any image to enlarge.

  • West Point 0900 Hours – Wind speed-Air Pressure
  • SMI Readings December 14 Wind speed-Air Pressure
  • Destruction Island Graph Wind speed-Air Pressure

The 48 hour surface forecast still shows what the upcoming week will be light with a succession of low-pressure systems lining up offshore. While they may be deflected to the north of us, the fronts will still drag over our area bringing wind and more rain. Not such good news for the skiers because this next system will drive the freezing level up to over 5500 feet, melting snow and increasing the possibility of some minor flooding in the lowlands.

Interesting times!

Have a great weekend.