Definitely would not have been the best weekend for Opening Day but Race to the Straits would have been a hoot! Oh well, next year.
The surface charts for today show a weak series of high’s over the Pacific NW with a couple of low-pressure systems with attached fronts offshore that will show up over the weekend. The jet stream flow continues to be zonal with upper level low-pressure systems remaining on the north side of the jet stream and upper level high-pressure systems on the south side of the jet stream. This will keep unsettled weather coming into our area through most of next week. Welcome to spring in the beautiful NW.
May 1 500 MB
May 1 Surface Analysis
May 2 Surface Forecast
May 3 500 MB
May 3 Surface Forecast
May 4 Surface Forecast
May 5 500MB
May 5 Surface Forecast
Tomorrow morning will start out with light winds over most of the area except for the Eastern end of the Strait of JdF. As the next system comes ashore tomorrow southerly winds will pick up over the area. This will continue through the day over the central Sound with 15-20 knots possible. Admiralty Inlet, the Straits and the SJ Islands will see slightly stronger winds from the SE.
As the front passes in the mid-afternoon a strong onshore flow will develop in the Straits bringing westerlies of 15-25 knots. As these are fast moving systems, the onshore flow will weaken Sunday but keep southerlies around for the central Sound. This will create yet another Puget Sound convergence zone for the area north of Everett with areas of heavier rain. Another reason why things will be so green, plants, roofs and sidewalks with moss, etc etc.
Anyway, maybe we can all look forward to the 5th of May when we can get back out on the water!
Keep your fingers crossed and have a great weekend!
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
It has once again been a very interesting week weatherwise since we started the week with only .06 inches of rain for the month. We are now up to a whopping .89 inches compared to an average for this date of 2.11 inches. Even so, we are still 2.44 inches of rain ahead for the year, and there is more on the way.
Today will provide us a break from the rain however the rest of the weekend is going to be wet, so it will be perfect for staying at home and staying healthy. The surface analysis chart for today shows a typical late April/early May mash-up of weather systems with neither high nor low systems dominating the chart. The high we’ve been watching off the California coast is not getting any stronger nor is it moving into a more summer-like position. Instead, it is becoming weaker and more elongated as a series of frontal systems have moved over its top.
April 24 500MB
April 24 Surface Analysis
April 25 Surface Forecast
April 26 500MB
April 26 Surface Forecast
April 27 Surface Forecast
April 28 500MB
April 28 Surface Forecast
Later this evening and into tomorrow another frontal system will push through the area bringing both rain and wind, especially to the eastern end of the Strait of JdF. For the central Sound and Admiralty Inlet, this will mean southerlies of 15-25 knots which will last until midday when the post-frontal breeze fills down the Straits and a classic Puget Sound Convergence Zone sets up from Everett north to Marysville which is where we will find the heaviest rain. The strongest breeze in the Straits will be in the early morning hours as a pre-frontal southeasterly wind of 20-35 knots will churn up the eastern end of the Straits. By midday, the breeze will become a post-frontal westerly at 15-25-knots. This will ease by late Saturday and early Sunday.
Sunday will see a shift back to a pre-frontal southeasterly flow over the area as the region prepares for yet another front by late Sunday and into Monday. Don’t get those sprinklers out quite yet because if you look at the 500mb charts the flow is distinctly zonal so it will continue to bring frontal systems right into the Salish Sea.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
We had our first day of 70°F yesterday so that’s a start. Now at least until Tuesday we’ll have highs in the mid to upper 60°F range with very little precip to worry about. Although it may not be too early to start worrying about what this summer might be like especially when we look at the upper air chart for next week.
Today’s surface analysis shows our normal springtime mix of highs, lows and stalled fronts. Today won’t be as warm as yesterday as a weak low pressure system will move over us tonight and into tomorrow morning. You can already see the leading edge creep over us as we have gone from a beautiful clear morning to an afternoon of high clouds. This also shows up very clearly on the satellite image. While we’ll have our usual pattern of a light breeze in the morning building to a nice 10-15-knot northerly late this afternoon, this will all change tomorrow with the possibility of some light rain around the area. It will also bring a southerly flow to the area may be as much as 15-knots in the center Sound. This will decrease in the late afternoon as an onshore flow develops in the Strait of JdF.
By Sunday morning the breeze will be light but as the onshore flow comes down Admiralty Inlet we can expect another northerly in the Sound by late afternoon.
April 17 500MB
April 17 Surface Analysis
April 18 Surface Forecast
April 19 500MB
April 19 Surface Forecast
April 21 500MB
April 21 Surface Forecast
The other chart of interest today is the 48hr surface forecast chart (19 Apr) which shows a nice round 976mb low-pressure system in the central Pacific aimed right at the Pacific Northwest. This will weaken as it runs into our 1019mb high that will be in place, protecting the Salish Sea until about late Tuesday or early Wednesday when the remnants of the attached frontal system will drag over us possibly bringing some light rain.
Another chart of interest is todays 500mb which shows a zonal jet stream until about the longitude of Hawaii where it does a 90° turn to the north leaving a cutoff upper air low-pressure system in mid-Pacific, very unusual. Gradually that big bend in the jet stream will disappear and the flow will return to more zonal but well to the south of us which will slow the heating in the upper atmosphere and keep our area in a cooler, more unstable weather pattern. This will keep soil temperatures a little low and slow growth which is probably a good thing however we may have a bit more moisture than normal. Also a good thing, especially if you live in California.
Regardless of the weather, I do know I’d really like to get back out on the water! So let’s keep our fingers crossed that maybe Wednesday night racing can finally get started!
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
What a beautiful week to be stuck with nothing to do but walk on deserted trails while maintaining proper social distancing. All the while watching the surface reports come in and wondering just how great South Straits would have been. Yes, it’s a little light now up in the Straits and around the Salish Sea in general however by this evening a nice northwesterly would be filling down the Strait of Georgia giving teams a nice downwind ride in moonlight. I’ll start reserving these conditions for next year right now!
The overall weather pattern is still unsettled however since it’s bringing even more snow to the Cascades and Olympics, we’ll take it. Like we have many choices. LA may not like rain in such quantities however it will help them as well. At least we won’t be subjected to the wild weather in the eastern US or the ravages of a very intense Cyclone Harold in the South Pacific.
We have a weak low-pressure system with a stationary front to the north of us with a multiplicity of lows to the east of us. This will allow a moderate onshore flow to come down the Strait of Jdf and Strait of Georgia. Then as the stationary front drifts to the south, it will bring some high clouds over the area late today and into tomorrow. As it continues to the south this will create an offshore flow over the area into Sunday which will bring with it sunshine and warmer temperatures.
April 10 500MB
April 10 Surface Analysis
April 11 Surface Forecast
April 12 500MB
April 12 Surface Forecast
April 13 Surface Forecast
April 14 500MB
April 14 Surface Forecast
What will be interesting to watch is the North Pacific High, which while still not exactly strong and decidedly elongated on a north-south axis, is very effectively setting us up for more nice days and even warmer temps. This is reinforced by the jet stream so check the upper air charts. As the NPH becomes stronger and drifts slowly to the east, this will bring a nice onshore northwesterly flow to the area to keep us from getting too warm, too soon.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
Well, it would be a
perfect weekend for one of our most favorite races, Sloop Tavern Blakely Rock.
Unfortunately, it, along with just about everything else, has been canceled.
That, however, won’t keep us from forecasting for the weekend!
Today’s surface analysis chart shows a very complex series of systems around us with three low-pressure systems surrounding the Salish Sea and three high-pressure systems in place to start influencing our weather after these lows move on down to California.
April 3 500MB
April 3 Surface Analysis
April 4 Surface Forecast
April 5 500MB
April 5 Surface Forecast
April 6 Surface Forecast
April 7 Surface Foreast
Today’s weather started
with an onshore flow coming down the Strait as well as through the Chehalis Gap
and up the Sound. This created a classic Puget Sound convergent zone that is
still in play as this is being written. 16-knots from the north at West Point
and 16-knots from the south at Alki, some rain from north Seattle to
Marysville. Gradually the northerly will come down the Sound and as high
pressure builds in BC and the low moves south the onshore flow will ease and
the flow over the area will become more northerly to northeasterly. Then as we
move into next week, high-pressure will build in the Pacific and our weather
will become nicer and slightly warmer. Finally.
So how would we sail the
Sloop BRBR? Tides will be fairly weak which will help clear up the congestion
that will develop at Meadow Point because of the weak flood and light
northerly. A clear air start will be key and getting around Meadow Point
cleanly will help the early starters. With the anticipated light air and
congestion near the mark, you’ll want to watch to see if you could pull off a
port tack start and head immediately into the beach which would get you out of
the tide and into a nice northeasterly along the beach south of Meadow Pt. This
will also give you a starboard tack approach to the mark just remember that if
the big NFS boats have chopped up the air at the mark you may have to
anticipate a couple of quick tacks to get around.
Once you get around
you’ll hold starboard tack to get you out into the stronger flood however the
wind will tend to be stronger along the east side of the Sound. A stronger
northerly will eventually fill down so keep your head out of the boat and watch
what’s going on around you. This also might be a good year to plan a gybe to
port at West Point. There should be a nice northeasterly which will allow you
to sail straight down the Sound with a course to a point just west of Alki.
This will only last until you are even with Four Mile Rock and once you’re
lifted to just east of Alki, gybe and you’ll be aimed right at Blakely Rock.
Once around Blakely
Rock, you’ll hold a nice port tack all the way back to Magnolia just don’t get
too far into the shallow water south of West Pt, it shoals up very quickly.
You’ll hold starboard
tack until you can track to port and be aimed just south of the entrance to the
Ship Canal. There will be some anti-water along here because of the outflow
from the Canal but as you get closer to the Canal you should also get another
knock which will allow you to tack to starboard and go right across the
entrance to the Ship Canal and plan your final approach to the finish.
Regardless of what we have for weather tomorrow, just remember that we all will have better days ahead. Enjoy the weekend, go to the marina, check the boat, maybe even go for a sail. If you don’t go sailing, just relax on the boat and read one of the many equipment manuals you always meant to read. Believe me, you’ll feel better just for having been on the boat!
Blue Fin, from the 2018 BRBR.
Ed. Note: My advice for tomorrow’s non-race? Read Bruce’s weather outlook a couple times, close your eyes and visualize it as Bruce called it. If you’re a trimmer, do some air-grinding. If you’re an owner, draw up some fake $100 bills and rip them up. If you’re a bow person, get someone to yell “Can’t you do that any faster?” at you a few times with increasing intensity. Sit on the edge of your couch, lean forward and think of witty and slightly rude nicknames to call your main competitors. Laugh loudly enough to bother the other people in your house.Then eat a soggy sandwich.
OK, not the same. But it is something that’s not on a screen. Then go read the manuals or for a real thrill read the racing rules. –KH
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
While March is supposed to go out like a lamb, this year will be the opposite with a weak front going through the area tomorrow which will bring southerly breezes for the Sound, Admiralty Inlet, Eastern Strait of JdF, and the San Juan Islands with the potential for Small Craft Advisories.
March 27 500MB
March 29 500MB
March 31 500 MB
March 31 Surface Forecast
After the front passes there
will be a brief post-frontal westerly in the Strait of JdF with strong
southerly breezes on the coast starting Sunday night. These will move inland
early Monday morning and then rapidly dissipate.
Satellite
Not a great weekend to be out on the water but better than being cooped up at the house. At least go down and check on the boat because better times are ahead.
Stay safe.
Ed. Note, looking forward to those better times. In the meantime everyone stay safe and help keep the rate of infection down. -KH
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
Let’s face it, as we at Sailish have always said, there’s nothing better than getting out on the boat and sailing off to one of the many great anchorages that are just a short distance away. This is even more true today as we all try to figure out how to deal with this unprecedented series of events. So why not do what has always made us feel better and now is the perfect solution to effective social distancing; GO SAILING!
March 20 500MB
March 20 Surface Analysis
March 21 Surface Forecast
March 22 500MB
March 22 Surface Forecast
March 24 500MB
March 24 Surface Forecast
We are also going to have a perfect weekend to go boating. It won’t be exactly warm, but it will be sunny and once you get out of the wind, downright enjoyable. The reason for this is a very interesting weather pattern with very little pressure gradient over the Salish Sea. We have a weak high-pressure system to the south of us with a weak low-pressure system off the coast of California and a very large high-pressure system (1039mb) in the Gulf of Alaska. Today’s sat pic gives you a great view of all of these systems. None of these are moving very far or very fast and that big high-pressure system is only going to get stronger over the weekend. This will have the effect of directing a weak frontal system into our area on Monday.
Satellite picture March 20
Winds will be generally light and northerly on Saturday and
with the approach of our next weather system become southerly on Sunday.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
For those of you who are racing tomorrow, especially at
Royal Vic and Bellingham, dress warmly, life jackets and safety harnesses for
sure, and if you’re not comfortable with the conditions, don’t go! It looks
like the Islands Race will have a nice breeze for the entire day with maybe as
much as 20-knots, while Bellingham and Victoria could see 30-40 knots of
northeasterly with gusts near 50! WOW! That’s a lot of wind.
Now (1600 hrs) up at the eastern end of the Straits of JdF we have a west-southwesterly breeze of 6 knots, which still gives a wind chill of 30-degrees, and the barometer is still falling. We can see snow up on the hills above Port Angeles and Sequim so the cold air is here but it is rain mixed with snow at sea level.
March 13 500MB
March 13 Surface Analysis
March 14 Surface Forecast
March 15 500MB
March 15 Surface Forecast
March 17 Surface Forecast
As you can see from the charts, we have a stationary frontal system that is slowly moving to the east. With the barometer still falling along the coast and here on the south side of the Straits this will keep the strong winds and very cold temperatures up north. It’s already 31 from the NE at Race Rocks so it’s coming.
So why will this northeasterly be so strong? Just look at the high-pressure system in the NE part of BC, it was at an ear-popping 1056mb this morning and it’s only going to weaken very slightly over the weekend. So with a pressure gradient difference of about 50mb, we are looking at some serious wind coming down the Fraser River Valley, blowing across the San Juan Islands and Bellingham, and then across the Straits of JdF. From there the breeze will be topographically forced down Admiralty Inlet and then down the Sound, slowly easing as it encounters landmasses.
This will mean a nice northerly in Colvos Passage that should last the entire day. In other words, a hard beat up the passage, hiking like crazy followed by a quick run back the finish and then into the Tides for well deserved hot-buttered rums, while maintaining that critical 6-foot social distance. You’ll get lots of tacking and gybing practice so that should help keep you warm. 😊
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
Ed. Note: Please share with anyone who might be affected. The area mentioned in the headline above will be subject to a real blast of Fraser River outflow starting tomorrow afternoon and extending through Saturday. The reason for those is one very large high-pressure system positioned over eastern BC which has been as high as 1055mb which is really high. The charts show the compression of the isobars immediately to the NE of Bellingham and Vancouver. This will bring strong NE breeze, 30-50 knots with higher gusts, to the area as well as significantly cooler temperatures.
March 14 Surface Forecast
March 14 0500 Surface Forecast
March 13 1700 Surface Forecast
March 13 Surface Forecast
With the low that you see offshore this will also bring Strait Effect snow to the US side of the Straits from Port Townsend to Sekiu especially in the Olympics.
Add the extra mooring lines and fenders for this one.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
It’s our
favorite time of the year: the start of CYC’s Center Sound Series! The good
news is the front went through this morning and all that remains is some
scattered showers. The bad news is that models are not in agreement about what
will happen tomorrow. What we are in agreement on is that it will be good to
get out racing again.
March 6 500MB
March 6 Surface Analysis
March 7 Surface Forecast
March 8 Surface Forecast
March 9 Surface Forecast
March 10 Surface Forecast
We have generally light conditions over the central Sound today and the surface charts confirm that the pressure gradient will continue to ease over the weekend even with a weak trough that is scheduled to move through the area tomorrow. As that passes, a weak ridge of high pressure will build tomorrow afternoon and bring a weak NW breeze to the central Sound. Some models show a stronger southerly for tomorrow morning with a northerly maybe to 15 knots filling down the Sound mid-afternoon. Not so sure about that. Generally speaking, it looks light but we’ll see when we power out of Shilshole tomorrow morning and then expect anything!
The other
good news is that tides are very weak.
Currents at West Point
0830 Slack
1154 Max
flood .61
knts
1442 Slack
1612 Max
ebb .31
knts
The places to watch for current will be at the entrance to Ship Canal and on the south side of West Point where the ebb from the Duwamish will be flowing in a northwesterly direction.
As far as tactics go, get a clear air start and don’t get
to close to the beach north of West Point. You’ll also want to watch COG and
SOG as you tack out on port tack. The strongest flood will be just offshore
from West Point so if you’re laying that buoy just hold port and beat feet to
the west because the wind will tend to shift from southerly to southwesterly
the closer you get to Bainbridge but again don’t get too close to the beach and
remember the reef off of Wing Point. Staying out a bit will keep you in what
flood there is and after Wing Point, stay out to stay in better breeze.
Remember also that the flood flows into Eagle Harbor even as far south as the
piling marker.
Set up for a port pole set at the Rock and then hold port until you can gybe out near R 2 at the entrance to Eagle Harbor then work out. Remember also that if a northwesterly is coming down the Sound, the SSW breeze will shift to SW and then to WSW so you may hold port all the way north. If the wind is shifting that way, make sure the headsail is ready to go back up. As mentioned above, there is no agreement about when this shift might come in, so be sure to keep your head out of the boat and watch the curb feelers out in front of you to anticipate the shift.
If the northwesterly has come in then it may be a gybe set at the top mark followed by gybes to get to the finish and stay in breeze.
One model has Crossfire
and Sonic around the course in a
little over five hours with the J-35’s taking about 10.5 hours.
Regardless, bring your warm foulies and wear your sunblock! Have a great time and we’ll see you out there!
Ed. Note: Please send race anecdotes, observations and tales to me and I’ll try to work them into post-race coverage. Thanks! KH
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
