Bruce Hedrick

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 10, 11, 12, and 13 June. Seventy48 and the Start of R2AK

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs, r2ak June 10, 2022June 10, 2022 0 Comment

Plenty of boating going on in the Salish Sea this weekend along with plenty of rain except for a break on Saturday where the temps will warm and the rain will ease. Speaking of rain, how about over an inch yesterday and we are now up to almost 2” of rain for the month compared to an average of .5” for this date. Even with this prodigious amount of rain this early in the month we probably won’t break the record for the wettest June ever which is almost 4.00” for the month. This is a good news/bad news situation because while it keeps our lakes and snow pack up it is also causing plenty of green growth to occur late in the season. If we have, as projected, above normal temps and below-normal precip, in July and August all this growth will die and dry out becoming fuel for fires. We shall see.

Today’s weather analysis chart, sat pic, and Doppler radar all show a series of weak weather systems which will move in tonight and into tomorrow morning. By mid-afternoon Saturday, a stronger onshore flow will develop bringing a westerly breeze down the Straits. The surface forecast chart for Saturday shows the next front approaching the coast and very little pressure gradient over the area.

Tonight at 1900hrs we’ll have the start of the Seventy48 Race in Tacoma where strictly human-powered craft will race to Port Townsend. Conditions will be pretty much perfect with a tailwind of 10-15 knots all the way to Pt No Point(PNP). After about midnight from PNP to Pt Townsend, the breeze will be light and variable until about mid-afternoon on Saturday when the onshore flow will bring a NW breeze to Admiralty Inlet. This will build to 12-15 for the rest of the day on Saturday.

Sunday afternoon and evening will see a stronger onshore flow come down the Strait of JdF bringing a westerly breeze of 20-30 knots to the area. By 0500 Monday, the start of the R2AK feeder and weeder race to Victoria, the breeze will be light in Pt. Townsend but will build to 20-25 as the fleet crosses the Strait towards Victoria.

This year could have been very interesting if the race had started last weekend or earlier this week as some boats almost certainly would have tried to go up the outside of Vancouver Island in breezy southerly conditions. That looks to be off the table now.

Have a great weekend and be safe out there.

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 3, 4, 5, 5, and 6 June. Blake Island Race, BOTH of them!

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs June 3, 2022June 3, 2022 1 Comment

This crazy weather never seems to want to quit. The Pacific hurricane season officially started on May 15^th and the first storm of the season (Agatha) slammed into Oaxaca, Mexico as the earliest and strongest storm to ever hit the Pacific coast of Mexico since records were kept. It then weakened as it crossed Mexico, became disorganized, and now will be the first named storm of the Atlantic season (Alex), which started on the 1^st of June.

For once this year, the Pacific Northwest is behind on our monthly rainfall total. Don’t worry that will probably revert to the new normal this weekend, as we will continue to have wetter and cooler weather than normal. Just ask the Swiftsure participants how cold it was on Saturday night. Those that started with longies were the smart ones.

Unfortunately for the racers in the central and south Sound, this weekend will be on the light side. If you’re sailing in the Classic Mariners Regatta in Port Townsend, break out the foulies and the reef lines and prepare for 10-20 knots of SE breeze. Both Blake Island Races will be sailed in 0 to 6 knots of light and variable breeze. At least it will be cool and rainy.

At least tides won’t be much of an issue.

Tidal Current at West Point:

0748 Slack

1000 Max Ebb .27 knots

1148 Slack

1724 Max Flood 1.02 knots

2106 Slack

This confused and unstable weather is brought to you by a weak pressure system off our coast at about 136W. The problem is that the jet stream is south of this low and this surface low is reinforced by an upper level-low in roughly the same place. The sat pic for today clearly shows the approaching cold front. Since the low isn’t moving much the front will move in a NNE direction almost paralleling the coast. This will bring breeze to the coast, the eastern Strait of JdF, and not much else inland.

Have a great weekend, stay warm and dry, and be safe.

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 27, 28, 29, 30, and 31 May. This Swiftsure Could be a Good One!

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs, Racing, Weather May 27, 2022May 27, 2022Swiftsure Race 0 Comment

This actually looks somewhat promising for those sailing out of Victoria this weekend. The problem is that conditions are still somewhat unstable and there will be a transition zone that will make things interesting. Temperatures will be cooler than normal and there will be some rain around. The known factor will be the tides in Race Passage and if the wind is lighter than currently forecast, it will mean fighting the big flood of the day after about 1130.

Tidal Currents in Race Passage:

Saturday May 28^th

0706 Max Ebb 5.3 knots

1042 Slack

1352 Max Flood 5.07 knots

1708 Slack

2019 Max Ebb 3.4 knots

2312 Slack

Sunday, May 29^th

0119 Max Flood 2.02 knots

0323 Slack

0519 Sunrise

0724 Max Ebb 5.35 knots

1112 Slack

1428 Max Flood 5.36 knots

1749 Slack

2102 Max Ebb 3.53 knots

The surface analysis shows that we have a very weak Pacific High well south of where it normally should be. We also have two weak low-pressure systems, one to the north of us and another fast-moving one in the Pacific which will come ashore near the Columbia River Saturday. This is what will cause an easterly to persist in the Straits giving us a downwind start. The models show this holding until late afternoon with the faster boats getting out to the westerly around Clallam Bay and getting out to Neah Bay by early evening. Then a westerly will build to 15-20 knots for a spinnaker run all the way back to the finish. More importantly, getting back through Race Passage before the big ebb of the day really gets rolling.

All of this is predicated on getting away from the starting area and past Race Passage before the flood gets rolling. If the big boats get out and away, there could be course records set. Navigators will be busy with a two-way run keeping the boat on the shortest possible course. Zvi could finish the long course by 0100hrs Sunday morning. The TP-52’s could be in by midnight on the Hein Bank Race.

Let’s keep our fingers crossed. Have a great race and be safe.

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 13, 14, 15, 16, and 17 May. Vashon Island Race

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs, Weather May 13, 2022May 13, 2022Vashon Island Race 0 Comment

Strange as it may seem, our weather is the envy of the country. For the most part, we in Western Washington have water in our reservoirs and a snowpack at or above 100%. Temps are below normal which is good to maintain the snowpack but tough on the home gardeners. As of today, we’ve had 2.26” of rain so far in May. The monthly average for this date is .8” and for the year the average is 17.69” while we’ve had 20.67” so far.

Today’s surface analysis chart and sat pic show that we are nowhere near done with rain for this month with yesterday’s low just over the Cascades and three more very weak low-pressure systems lined up off the coast. The next system will arrive tonight and into Saturday morning. The third system will come through on Sunday following a very similar path.

The 500MB charts show that finally, the jet stream is starting to move to the north which will bring the high temps for Saturday and Sunday into at least the low 60s, finally.

Plenty of sailing going on this weekend with the Pacific NW Offshore Race that finally got started out of Ilwaco this morning after the Organizers wisely decided to not start yesterday morning with winds at the mouth of the Columbia River in the 30-40 knot range with higher gusts. Today’s start was much milder with the fleet now under spinnaker in 12-18 knots of SSW wind. Should be a nice ride up the coast with a nice run down the Straits to finish in Port Angeles.

We will have Vashon Island Race tomorrow which should actually be pretty nice, with a post-frontal south/southwesterly wind of 8-18 knots around most of the day. Currents won’t be much of an issue with the top speed at West Point being only .8 knots of flood just after 1300 hours.

On the long course expect a beat in 8-12 knots of southerly and south of the north end of Vashon the breeze will start to clock to the SW. The short course boats will go to a temporary mark just NW of Pt Robinson and will have similar conditions. The key will be to not go too far to the west north of Pt. Robinson so you end up overstanding the mark and end up reaching in on starboard tack.

On the long course after Pt. Robinson expect the breeze to be a solid W/SW. Don’t get too close to Maury Island as while there may be a nice starboard tack lift in close to the beach it will also be lighter in there. At the bottom end of Vashon remember that the current pretty much flows west to east along that shore and if there’s any clearing that will allow heating of the island it will also be light along that shore.

Once in Colvos Passage find the axis of the current and ride that north. Don’t get too close to either shore and watch for the puffs to come from the west. After you sail out of Colvos, aim the boat for the barn as you should be in a nice SW breeze all the way to the finish. Don’t get too close to Blake Island as it will be lighter next to the Island.

The next challenge will be the finish as the line will be off the north end of the Shilshole Breakwater. Once you are north of West Point, you may have to take a gybe to get into the line. Could be interesting if you gybe early and you end up on a port tack approach to the finish with other boats coming in on starboard.

Have a great day.

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for May 6, 7, 8, and 9. Sloop Tavern YC Race to the Straits

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs, Racing May 6, 2022May 6, 2022Race to the Straits 0 Comment

Our spring of wacky weather continues with more rain and cooler than normal temps. Then we have the Race to the Straits sailing in three distinct zones of weather: Central Sound, Admiralty Inlet, and the Eastern end of the Straits. Each offers its own particular (peculiar) set of challenges. What could possibly go wrong?

Since, once again, the models are not in agreement with when and where the wind will come from except for the Eastern Straits, more on that later. The tidal current models are, however, constant.

Bush Point Tidal Currents

7 May

0724 Max Flood 1.05 knots

1000 Slack

1318 Max Ebb 1.98 knots

1612 Slack

1918 Max Flood 2.13 knots

8 May

0600 Slack

0836 Max Flood 1.05 knots

1106 Slack

1418 Max Ebb 1.70 knots

1706 Slack

2012 Max Flood 2.02 knots

Today’s surface analysis chart shows a very weak high-pressure system over the Salish Sea and an approaching weak and fast-moving low-pressure system with an attached cold front. Our Pacific High is set up just north of Hawaii and south of a “normal” position. While the High is rounding up which would normally indicate some stability in the High, it is also still on the weak side at 1030MB.

After the front moves through, a strong onshore flow will bring NW breeze down the coast, down the Straits, and through the Chehalis Gap. The flow through the Gap will keep the breeze out of the SSW in the Central and South Sound until midday Saturday. Then, as the flow develops down the Strait, expect breezy conditions in the Eastern Straits to push down Admiralty inlet and into the Central Sound starting about midday. The breeze from Fowlweather Bluff(FWB) to the south end of Marrowstone will tend to be from the NNW at 10-20 knots with the breeze backing to the WNW and building into the 15-25 knots range the closer you get to the Marrowstone Light. This breeze will hold into mid-evening.

Since this is a short-handed event if you’re sailing with conventional headsails and if you will have to do a sail change, think about hoisting the big sail to start the beat from Pt. No Pt. in the port groove. You’ll want to hold starboard tack from FWB to Marrowstone and do your sail change while on starboard, tacking to port near Marrowstone. Even though the tide will be ebbing you will want to be near the Marrowstone shore since the water will be smoother and you will position yourself to be on the inside of the coming lift as you go up the island.

After rounding Marrowstone Light, hold port tack until you can tack and be aimed at the south end of Port Townsend. This will get you into the smoother water east of town so you can do a port tack approach to the finish and avoid sailing in the mix-master of the main channel of Admiralty Inlet. Do remember that with the strong westerly, the flood will start sooner than the forecast of 1600 hrs and that will help to flatten the seas.

Sunday will be a completely different story as the area prepares for the next low-pressure system and front which will pass quickly to the south of the Salish Sea. Once it does pass, the onshore flow will once again come down the Straits however that probably won’t happen until late Sunday afternoon or early evening. This probably means light and variable winds for the racecourse and with the slack at 1100 hours, you’ll be fighting the ebb until almost 1700 hours. Getting to the FWB buoy could be challenging.

The good news in all of this? Sunday won’t be as wet as Saturday.

Note also the 500MB Charts as the Jet Stream continues to come in well south of the Pacific NW. This will continue to keep us wet and cool through the coming week. The 8 and 10 May Charts are particularly interesting with the development of an upper-level, cut-off low-pressure system just to the north and west of Hawaii. With nothing to push it around, it should be fun to watch especially if you have a trip to Hawaii planned. In the past, if these systems drift south to the islands, they have brought record rainfall to Kauai(44” in 24 hours)and 100+mph winds to the top of the Big Island.

Be safe, and have a great weekend.

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for Apr 29 & 30, May1-3. Smith Island and Double Bluff Race

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs April 29, 2022April 29, 2022Smith Island Race 0 Comment

Our weird and wonderful weather continues even as NOAA forecasts a third straight year of La Niña, so cooler and wetter than normal. Let’s hope, as the rest of the country will not be so lucky this summer. On to sailboat racing this weekend!

Just as the NWS divides the Salish into different areas; Puget Sound, Admiralty Inlet, Eastern Strait of JdF, etc etc, it turns out there’s a very good reason for this and we will all be witnesses to these divisions this weekend. The models do not agree on what we’ll have and that is because it’s springtime in Putrid Sound.

Unfortunately, what we can agree on is tidal currents so let’s look at Admiralty Inlet, Bush Point.

Tidal Currents

0824 Max Ebb 2.85 knts

1124 Slack

1500 Max Flood 3.41 knts

1824 Slack

2100 Max Ebb 1.75 knts

2330 Slack

Sunday

0254 Max Flood 2.36 knts

0530 Slack

0854 Max Ebb 3.89 knts

The bad news is that the time of the strongest tide in Admiralty (!500hrs, 3.41 knts) will roughly coincide with the time of the least amount of wind. When was the last time you practiced anchoring?

The surface analysis charts and sat pic provide a great overview of the dilemma headed our way. We have a very weak frontal system attached to a very weak low-pressure system just off the coast that will move through the area late tonight and into early Saturday. This will bring a strong SE pre-frontal breeze to the coast and the Eastern end of the Strait of JdF. There just won’t be much in the inland waters. One of the problems is that the weak low will remain stalled off of Cape Flattery keeping a SE breeze in the Strait and a weak onshore flow through the Chehalis Gap which will keep the southerly light in the Sound.

As the front begins to dissipate over the Sound around 0900 hours (start time) the breeze will also begin to drop from 5-8 in the area from Shilshole to PNP. The breeze will not be consistent in strength with Puget Sound potentially looking a little like swiss cheese. By about midday, the breeze will become light and variable over the racecourse. If you’re on the long course, and you can get around Pt No Pt and Foulweather Bluff before the tide starts cranking against you, you will probably want to aim for the bottom end of Marrowstone, where you can work the beach and be in position for the westerly which will eventually come down the Strait.

If you’re on the Short Course, you will probably work the back eddy below Pt No Pt and then do your best to get across the Sound to Useless Bay so you can work that back eddy up to Double Bluff. It’s also easier to anchor in Useless Bay.

By 1700 there should be a NW breeze of 5-10 from Pt No Pt(PNP) to Smith Island and this should hold through the evening hours until around midnight. From PNP south to Shilshole NW of 10-15 holding until about 2100 hours when the ENE of 5-8 knots will hold through the early morning hours before it drops to less than 5 knots.

This race will drive tacticians and trimmers crazy. The very hazy crystal ball has ZVI around the course finishing at 0615 hours Sunday. On the short course, I have the Legendary Boomerang finishing at 0145 hours Sunday.

Temps won’t be bone-chilling but it will be wet Saturday morning. Sunday will be a much nicer day, just perfect for drying out sails and the boat.

Be safe and have a great race.

While some may be practicing anchoring, our intrepid weather prognosticator shall be sitting here.

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 22, 23, 24, and 25 April. Not so happy Earth Day.

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs April 22, 2022April 22, 2022 5 Comments

Looks like it could be a nice weekend to be on the water, not so much wind but not any rain until Sunday evening. High temps will be in the 60s both days. Both days will start cloudy but burning off to mixed sun and clouds. Use that sunblock!

So far this month we are only .5 inches of rain behind for the month which isn’t huge plus we are still 1.5” ahead of the average for today and about .5” ahead of last year which was really wet. The other good news is that we are at or above 100% of snowpack in the Cascades, which is similar to last year until we got that early blast of heat which really knocked the snowpack down in a hurry. It could still happen this year but at least the long-range predictions for the Salish Sea are showing average temps and below average precip for May, June, and July.

The rest of the west is not so lucky, especially our neighbors to the south. See the Drought Monitor Map for today. You have to wonder how far off Zero Water day is for Oregon, California, Nevada, Arizona, and New Mexico. The other area of concern is the drought in wine country in Washington, now that’s a problem! At least the ocean is staying cool off our coast and that will help the salmon recovery efforts.

Today’s surface analysis map has a very weak (1028MB) Pacific High setting up at 32N and 145W which is way south but at about the right longitude. After the unsettled weather yesterday, we now have a weak ridge of high pressure trying to build over the area with another low-pressure setting up in the Gulf of Alaska. We also have a trough of low-pressure running south from the Salish Sea and then offshore before it curves back inland at San Francisco.

Tomorrow a weak lobe of high pressure will build over the area as another frontal system approaches from the west. This will keep winds light over the area and this will extend into Sunday as the front will stall as it approaches the coast.

The sat pic for today and 500MB Analysis offer a great visual presentation of why things will be fairly quiet on the inland waters. The jet stream remains very far to the south coming ashore at the CA-MEX border. Over the weekend the jet stream will drift to the north coming ashore between northern California and central Oregon. Until it moves north of us, temps will remain a little cool which is all good for the snowpack and the fire season.

Have a great weekend!

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 15,16,17,18,and 19 Apr.

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs April 15, 2022April 15, 2022Southern Straits Race 0 Comment

Another wild week of weather in the Pacific NW and the Southern Straits Race is off to a great start with a 20-knots of easterly wind for a downwind ride to first marks. Plus, Environment Canada has issued a Waterspout Warning for the Strait Of Georgia. I guess that when you’ve had rain, snow, hail, sunshine, and freezing temps you might as well add a waterspout into the overall equation!

There are a multiplicity of reasons for all this cool unstable weather, just take a look at today’s surface analysis chart, sat pic, and 500MB chart. We’ve had a weak surface low-pressure system over the area this entire week with a stalled occluded front just to the north and slightly to the east as well as cold upper air low-pressure system centered just north of Vancouver Island. The jet stream is primarily zonal and coming ashore between San Fran and LA. Today’s sat pic shows the cool, unstable air off our coast and the next frontal system that will arrive Sunday evening. This pattern will continue to bring upper-level lows into the area this coming week, keep temps on the cool side, and the weather challenging.

For sailing on the Sound this weekend this instability will create interesting conditions. In the morning, the central and south Sound can expect light conditions, while Admiralty inlet and the north Sound will see 10-15 knots of north-northwesterly. The Strait of JdF will have variable wind of 5-15 knots. Onshore flow will develop through the Chehalis Gap by early afternoon and this will create a building S/SW breeze over the south Sound that will gradually make it to the central Sound by mid-afternoon. The interesting part will be that just after the flow develops in the Chehalis Gap it will also start to come down the Strait of JdF and will have to meet somewhere between Alki and Edmonds.

Sunday will be even more interesting as the wind in the Straits will be a pre-frontal SE of 15-20 knots while the wind in the central and South Sound will light and variable for most of the day.

Wherever you’re sailing, have a great weekend!

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 8, 9, 10, 11, and 12 Apr. Sloop Tavern Blakely Rock and South Straits Preview.

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs April 8, 2022April 8, 2022 0 Comment

As if conditions haven’t been crazy enough around here this week, get ready for tomorrow. After a beautiful and warm day yesterday, we had a cold front move through early this morning dropping the temp and some rain. We now have a strong onshore flow coming down the Strait of JdF with an equally strong onshore flow coming into the south Sound through the Chehalis Gap. 33 Knots of westerly at Race Rocks, 26 knots at Dungeness, and 22 knots of WSW at Smith Island. 15-20 knots of WSW from Olympia to Des Moines, 18 knots of southerly at Alki, and 27 knots of SW at West Point and Paine Field. As usual, it has to meet somewhere and thus we have a set-up for the classic Puget Sound Convergence Zone.

Today’s surface chart and satpPic show the front having gone through and the cool, unstable air behind the front moving into the area. This will mean very cool temps overnight with wind chills in the low to mid-30s for tomorrow with the chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms in the CZ and near the Cascade foothills.

The surface analysis chart for today has a reasonably strong Pacific High at 1038MB off the coast of SF. This will strengthen tomorrow to 1041MB and drift slightly to the north and the west. This will reduce the pressure gradient over the Pacific Northwest as the isobars spread out over the day tomorrow. The real challenge will be for the Race Committee as the models have the Convergence Zone just slightly north of Shilshole. It’s entirely possible there could be a southerly for the early starters and a northerly for the later starters with some very light conditions in between those starts.

After that, the wind could come in from the NE and fill in at 20-knots from the north before it drops back to 5-10 and becomes light and variable. Big fun. Tacticians and trimmers are going to have a very busy day, which will be good because it will keep them from getting too cold.

South Straits Preview: It’s a week out and I’m only comfortable with forecasts out 72 to 96 hours but three models will go out to 15 April. They are reasonably consistent in that it looks like you won’t have to worry about too much wind. The most wind seems to be 10-15 knots Friday night from the WNW. Before and after that expect wind in the 3-5 knot range. Lighten the boat as much as possible just remember it will also be quite cool so dress appropriately.

Don’t shoot the messenger.

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 25, 26, 27, and 28 Mar. A typical Spring Weekend!

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs March 25, 2022March 25, 2022 0 Comment

Today’s surface analysis chart, sat pic, and Langley Doppler radar all combine to show a weakening cold front approaching the coast and moving into the Salish Sea. As it passes over the Pacific NW it will continue to weaken and then stall before it moves slowly off to the NE Saturday night and into Sunday morning.

As this system evaporates over the area we’ll be left with scattered showers and the pressure gradient will decrease over the entire area. This will mean very light air over the central and south Sound. The north Sound, Admiralty Inlet, and the eastern end of the Strait of JdF will have a light SE breeze of 5-15 knots until about mid-afternoon when that will evaporate as well.

Sunday will be very much the same as there will be no appreciable pressure gradient over the area.

Enjoy the weekend!

Bruce Hedrick

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