This actually looks somewhat promising for those sailing out of Victoria this weekend. The problem is that conditions are still somewhat unstable and there will be a transition zone that will make things interesting. Temperatures will be cooler than normal and there will be some rain around. The known factor will be the tides in Race Passage and if the wind is lighter than currently forecast, it will mean fighting the big flood of the day after about 1130.
Tidal Currents in Race Passage:
Saturday May 28th
0706 Max Ebb 5.3 knots
1042 Slack
1352 Max Flood 5.07 knots
1708 Slack
2019 Max Ebb 3.4 knots
2312 Slack
Sunday, May 29th
0119 Max Flood 2.02 knots
0323 Slack
0519 Sunrise
0724 Max Ebb 5.35 knots
1112 Slack
1428 Max Flood 5.36 knots
1749 Slack
2102 Max Ebb 3.53 knots
The surface analysis shows that we have a very weak Pacific High well south of where it normally should be. We also have two weak low-pressure systems, one to the north of us and another fast-moving one in the Pacific which will come ashore near the Columbia River Saturday. This is what will cause an easterly to persist in the Straits giving us a downwind start. The models show this holding until late afternoon with the faster boats getting out to the westerly around Clallam Bay and getting out to Neah Bay by early evening. Then a westerly will build to 15-20 knots for a spinnaker run all the way back to the finish. More importantly, getting back through Race Passage before the big ebb of the day really gets rolling.
All of this is predicated on getting away from the starting area and past Race Passage before the flood gets rolling. If the big boats get out and away, there could be course records set. Navigators will be busy with a two-way run keeping the boat on the shortest possible course. Zvi could finish the long course by 0100hrs Sunday morning. The TP-52’s could be in by midnight on the Hein Bank Race.
Let’s keep our fingers crossed. Have a great race and be safe.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)