As if conditions haven’t been crazy enough around here this week, get ready for tomorrow. After a beautiful and warm day yesterday, we had a cold front move through early this morning dropping the temp and some rain. We now have a strong onshore flow coming down the Strait of JdF with an equally strong onshore flow coming into the south Sound through the Chehalis Gap. 33 Knots of westerly at Race Rocks, 26 knots at Dungeness, and 22 knots of WSW at Smith Island. 15-20 knots of WSW from Olympia to Des Moines, 18 knots of southerly at Alki, and 27 knots of SW at West Point and Paine Field. As usual, it has to meet somewhere and thus we have a set-up for the classic Puget Sound Convergence Zone.
Today’s surface chart and satpPic show the front having gone through and the cool, unstable air behind the front moving into the area. This will mean very cool temps overnight with wind chills in the low to mid-30s for tomorrow with the chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms in the CZ and near the Cascade foothills.
The surface analysis chart for today has a reasonably strong Pacific High at 1038MB off the coast of SF. This will strengthen tomorrow to 1041MB and drift slightly to the north and the west. This will reduce the pressure gradient over the Pacific Northwest as the isobars spread out over the day tomorrow. The real challenge will be for the Race Committee as the models have the Convergence Zone just slightly north of Shilshole. It’s entirely possible there could be a southerly for the early starters and a northerly for the later starters with some very light conditions in between those starts.
After that, the wind could come in from the NE and fill in at 20-knots from the north before it drops back to 5-10 and becomes light and variable. Big fun. Tacticians and trimmers are going to have a very busy day, which will be good because it will keep them from getting too cold.
South Straits Preview: It’s a week out and I’m only comfortable with forecasts out 72 to 96 hours but three models will go out to 15 April. They are reasonably consistent in that it looks like you won’t have to worry about too much wind. The most wind seems to be 10-15 knots Friday night from the WNW. Before and after that expect wind in the 3-5 knot range. Lighten the boat as much as possible just remember it will also be quite cool so dress appropriately.
Don’t shoot the messenger.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)