As I said in my Wednesday night presentation to the OYC and SSSS, I expected conditions to change just because of the lack of movement of systems and the amorphous behavior of the systems over the Pacific NW. Today’s surface analysis chart shows high-pressure systems to the north and south of us with low-pressure systems to the east and west of us. By tomorrow morning we’ll simply have a weak (1018MB) low pressure offshore with an attached cold front. As this system comes onshore it will weaken and a strong post-frontal onshore flow will develop along the coast bringing a 20-25 knot NW breeze. There will also be a nice flow through the Chehalis Gap and into the South Sound in the morning and early afternoon. There will also be a nice flow down the Strait of JdF and then into the Central and South Sound. This is how things will get interesting for Toliva Shoal. The other caveat here is that none of the models are in agreement about what will happen tomorrow.
By the 19th of Feb we’ll have a nice and round Pacific High which would be great if we getting ready for Hawaii however this time of the year it will simply serve to deflect storm systems away from us. The really interesting chart is the 96hr (21 Feb) surface forecast. The Pacific High has deepened to 1046MB and moved into the Gulf of Alaska while two weak low-pressure systems remain over the Salish Sea, This will bring yet another cold snap to our area as well as a chance of lowland snow. Luckily, all we may get for Toliva is some light rain.
So how does all this breakdown for the race? The good news is that we’ll have wind for the start and a pretty favorable wind direction and wind strength all the way to Toliva Shoal. After Toliva, just as we go to the big ebb of the day, the wind will start to shift to the west and drop in speed. Here’s how it will break down.
1000 start SSW wind 8-15 knots. Downwind start!
1100-1200 Breeze holds from the SSW at 8-15 knots.
1200 A slightly stronger flow develops through the Chehalis Gap 10-18 knots of SW breeze from Johnson Pt to Toliva Shoal.
1300 SW 10-15 Anderson Isl to Toliva, Balch Passage to Devils Head becoming W to 10 knots Johnson Pt to Cooper Pt.
Navigators will want to start plotting wind direction and wind strength down the Strait of JdF, down Admiralty Inlet, and down the Sound as the onshore flow builds. This will weaken the flow through the Chehalis Gap.
1400 Wind Westerly 8-12 knots over the course.
1500 Wind westerly easing to 5-10 knots.
1600 Wind ENE 3-8 knots Toliva and Balch Passage. Wind westerly 4-8 knots Dana Passage to Finish. Convergence zone developing Balch to Johnson Pt.
1700 Wind ENE 3-6 knots Toliva to Devils H. Wind Westerly 3-6 knots Dana Pass to finish
1800-Time Limit: Wind light and variable over the course
Here’s where we roll the dice and break out the Meadow Point Marine/Sailish.Com Dart Board.
Who will finish and when:
Boat Toliva Shoal Finish
Riptide 1320hrs 2330hrs
J-133 1340hrs 2340hrs
J-120 1353hrs 0313hrs Sunday
J-35 1511hrs 0420hrs Sunday
White Squall 1600hrs 0530hrs Sunday
One forecast that is always 100% accurate is that the hospitality at OYC before and after the race will, as always, be exceptional. After the race, while the wind may be light on the race course, there will be plenty of hot air inside the clubhouse. 😊
For the delivery home on Sunday, the breeze will once again be from the south at 5-10 from 0700hrs and slowly build from that direction all day. By Sunday afternoon expect 15-20 knots from the south.
Over the weekend, the strongest breeze will be in the Eastern Strait of JdF and the San Juan Islands.
Have a great race, be safe, and enjoy the weekend.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)