All in all, it looks like a pretty nice stretch of great weather coming up. Even though the charts don’t really show much, it does suggest that with that area of weak high-pressure centered off of San Francisco and weak low-pressure inland, there will be some onshore flow over this evening, strengthening tomorrow afternoon. This will then weaken late Saturday and into Sunday. What is really interesting is the Tuesday chart which shows a well-developed low-pressure system poised to sweep into California. Sure they can always use the rain but maybe not so much so quickly.
March 16 Surface Analysis
March 17 Surface Forecast
March 18 Surface Forecast
March 20 Surface Forecast
What does this mean for the GHYC Islands Race? It should be, as always, a pretty great event. Even if there’s no wind it’s always a pretty great time down there. That yacht club does know how to do it right. This year with a weak onshore flow coming in through the Chehalis Gap it’s liable to be a bit of a light southerly for the start. As the morning goes on and the onshore flow builds this should result in a 5-10 knot southwesterly over most of the central and south Sound for most of the rest of the day. With a constant ebb tide in Colvos, you’ll have flat water plus with abundant sunshine it should be pretty pleasant. Don’t forget the sunblock.
For tactics it will be pretty straight forward. After the start, find a clear lane to the strongest current going north in Colvos. Once you find the axis of the current, keep your air clear and gybe aggressively to stay in the current and clear air. Once you round the top mark it will be better to stay to the west in Colvos as the wind will stay out of the SW which will mean the puffs will be lifts on starboard tack. The starboard tacks will be long tacks so when you put the jib up, have it in the port groove of the headstay. The other fact about upwind in a SW in Colvos, is that puffs roll off the hill and down to the water and then flatten out. This means you don’t want to get too close to the beach (lighter air) and your drivers and trimmers are going to be working very hard sailing south. Hard work will be rewarded. Also, don’t underestimate how far bad air can effect you as you go upwind in 6-10 knots. As a rough rule of thumb figure 15-20 times mast height of the boat in front of you is how far back it will slow you down.
While on Saturday it could be cranking in the Straits from the west, Sunday looks very light over the entire Northwest.
Have a great weekend and Happy St. Patrick’s Day to all.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
It’s the first week of March so it must be time for CYC’s Center Sound Series, one of our favorites. True, it’s not like the days of having 500 boats out there but with around 80 there will still be some great racing. Earlier this week it was looking a bit grim as in Crossfire taking 12 hours to complete the course. As they do in the Pacific Northwest, things change. Now it appears things might not be so bad. Some forecasts are calling for 15-18 from the NNW while others are saying 5-10 from the NNW. We’ll just see who shows up.
One thing we do know is that the tides will for sure be in play however even they won’t be too bad. There will be varying amounts of ebb from 0630 until slack at noon. I’ve included a chart to explain this oddity.
Odd Ebbs
Tidal Current at West Point
0630 Ebb .32 knts
0912 Ebb .10 knts
1054 Ebb .15 knts
1206 Slack
1448 Flood .93 knts
1718 Slack
1900 Ebb .46 the knts
Looking at the charts, you’ll see a 996 MB low off the Oregon coast which will remain nearly stationary as it slowly weakens becoming a 1006MB by tomorrow morning. This low will dissipate late Sunday. Meanwhile, high pressure (1040MB) over British Columbia will drift slowly SSE resulting in weak offshore flow over the area through Saturday. This flow will become nearly flat on Sunday. How fast this moves our way will determine just how much wind we’ll have over the course. The best way to check this is to note barometric pressure at Bellingham(currently 1006.7), Portland(1006.6), and Astoria (1004.4). Then check the gradient tomorrow morning on VHF when you get to the boat and see how much this has changed. Generally speaking, if you take the difference in MB’s and between Bellingham and Portland and multiply times 5 that will give you the windspeed in knots. This is more accurate when the pressure is higher in the south. When it’s higher in the north it is less so.
March 2 500MB
March 2 Surface Analysis
March 3 500MB
March 3 Surface Forecast
March 4 500MB
March 4 Surface Forecast
March 6 Surface Forecast
Assuming it’s a northerly, the key to success tomorrow will be getting a clean start off the line and then watch your COG and SOG to make sure you are in the strongest ebb. You’ll hold starboard off the line staying in clear air, there should be slightly more wind in the center Sound. You’ll want to tack when you can lay the mark however you may want to tack early as there may be a lift on port as you work up the Sound. Tacking early will also give you time once you tack back to starboard to get the pole and gear setup which ideally you would have done at the dock. It should be a starboard tack set.
You’ll want to hold the starboard tack on the run. As you get over near the Bainbridge shore you’ll watch the true wind speed, when it starts to drop, that’s the time to gybe. You are better off to come into the Rock on starboard, just know where all the rocks are! You’ll have to do the drop and gybe immediately, then get set-up to drop the daffodils for Kelly.
On the beat back to West Point, it will be hold port tack from the Rock to Four Mile Rock under Magnolia. The flood may have started however there may still be some ebb along the shore from Four Mile to West Point, just don’t get into too close. At least in the flood, you shouldn’t be on for long.
From West Point to the finish, you’ll want to hold starboard off of West Point until you can tack and make the entrance buoys. Really pay attention to where the finish line is and don’t tack too many times but really maintain a clear air lane to the finish.
Good luck, be safe and have a great time.
Ed. Note: Thanks again, Bruce, for the insights. There are going to be some interesting tales to tell, from this, and all the other, Center Sound races. I’ll be looking for details from every part of the fleet – if you send me your insights I’ll work them into the race wrap. I’ll also be looking for video to include on the Wet Wednesday post. I’m not looking for the crew to drop the halyard to get some footage, but if you have some video, share it with me and I’ll share it with the sailish.com readers (even those not on Facebook….) Have a great time tomorrow!
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
It’s pretty strange to be looking out the window watching the snow come down for the second day this week. Speaking of seconds, how about breeze in the south Sound for the second weekend in a row. Then for our friends in the Straits and San Juan Islands BIG breeze (25-30 knots) Saturday afternoon and into Sunday. The Girts Rekevics Foul Weather Regatta will certainly live up to its name! The Jim Depue Race and those heading out from Elliott Bay and Shilshole to practice for Blakely Rock will have some wind in the morning, however, as mid-day approaches, a convergence zone will be setting up over the Center Sound making conditions a bit light and flukey. At least it will be wet AND cold, all at no extra charge.
February 23 Surface Analysis
Feb 24 500MB
February 24 Surface Forecast
February 26 Surface Chart
February 27 Surface Forecast
February 27 500MB
The aurface charts have a number of interesting features. We have a front over Western Washington this afternoon which will move east of the Cascades this evening, followed by a strong post-frontal westerly flow tonight and into Saturday. Then a stronger front will move over the Pacific Northwest Saturday night and Sunday with gales possible for the coastal waters and Strait of Juan de Fuca. A very weak high-pressure system will try to set up on Monday only to be blown out by another front on Tuesday. Welcome to late winter weather in the Pacific Northwest.
Perhaps the most interesting feature on these charts is the very summer-like high-pressure system that was snuggled up to the coast of California last weekend. It has gotten slightly stronger (1040 to 1042MB) and rounder both of which means that it’s probably not going to be easily moved from its current position. Combined with a relatively straight-line jet stream will continue to push storm systems over the top of the high and into the Pacific Northwest.
As you should anytime you go boating around here, prepare for the worst and really watch conditions. Remember the definition of heavy weather: It’s anytime you and your crew are not comfortable with the conditions. Don’t take unnecessary chances and don’t put yourself, your crew or your boat in dangerous situations.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
Oh boy, you better sit down and get out the AED because you almost never see these three words in the same sentence: Toliva Shoal and Breezy! The models all seem to agree, we are gonna have some wind this weekend with the slight possibility of snow late Saturday and early Sunday, so if you’re going on the race you had better prepare accordingly. This includes a potential wind chill of 15-20°F which is no joke.
As you can see from the surface charts we have a relatively weak low-pressure system with an attached frontal system working over us today to be followed by a much stronger system tomorrow. The front associated with tomorrow’s system will pass through near dawn leaving us with a strong post-frontal, onshore flow. This will mean strong SW breeze over the south and central Sound with steady winds of 20-30 knots with gusts to 45 knots and this will hold for most of Saturday, even over the Toliva Shoal Race Course.
The other good news is that we’ll have favorable tides with the ebb starting just before the race starts. In this run, reach, run scenario you will probably make it to the Toliva mark fairly early which means you’ll need to be thinking ahead and be constantly planning for that next leg, especially the leg from Johnson Pt to Buoy #3 at the Flats. This will be a shifty reach where you’ll really want to have the barber-hauler rigged on the port side before you leave the dock because once you’re racing you’ll be too busy to rig it. There will also be plenty of rain which will knock visibility down so be sure to have the compass courses posted for each leg.
February 16 Surface Analysis
February 17 500MB
February 17 Surface Forecast Chart
February 18 500MB
February 18 Surface Analysis
February 20 500MB
February 20 Surface Forecast Chart
It will almost certainly be a hard beat from Toliva Shoal back to the finish. It tends to be lighter going through Balch Passage however if the breeze is on I would be tempted to stay with the #4 or your small jib rather than trying to do multiple headsail changes. Just power up the main. The crew will also like short tacking in there with the smaller headsail. You’ll want to work the Devils Head side of Drayton Passage to stay in flatter water then hold starboard tack all the way across to the flatter water below Johnson Point. From there to Boston Harbor it will be stay on the favored tack and HIKE, HIKE, HIKE! Once you get into Budd Inlet, you’ll want to favor the west side for flatter water and the puffs will be lifts on starboard tack.
This will be a good one just make sure the jacklines are run and everyone is wearing life jackets and harnessed up before you leave the dock.
And then there’s Sunday! By early Sunday morning, the breeze will swing around to the north-northeast and blow just as hard from that direction. Probably 25-35 knots in the north and central Sound, and the eastern end of the Straits, and 15-25 knots in the South Sound. This will also be bringing that very cold air down from the BC interior. Maybe wait until next weekend to do that delivery from Olympia to points north.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
Put a mark on your calendar, as of today we are BEHIND in the amount of rainfall we would normally have on this date for the month! We are however still 2.3” ahead for the year. The good news is that we should have a pretty nice weekend, the only downside is that it will be chilly.
As you can see from the charts we’ll have an offshore flow developing from the high pressure (1042mb) that is building over the interior of British Columbia. This will bring cold air out of the Canadian interior and certainly into the northern part of the Salish Sea. This flow will ease on Saturday. Being the first day the ridge is established we’ll have a nice northerly in the Sound overnight and then ease as the day goes on. We’ll have a weak front move through the area Sunday with the offshore flow returning for a brief visit Monday then switching back to an onshore flow on Tuesday.
February 9 Surface Analysis
February 10 500MB
February 10 Surface Forecast
February 11 Surface Forecast
February 13 500MB
February 13 Surface Forecast
For those of you leaving town on Thursday to do the Islands Race next weekend, (Long Beach Start, Catalina and San Clemente to port, finish in San Diego) I would pay particular attention to the 500MB chart and that 549MB upper level low centered over your race course and watch how that moves as you get closer to the start of racing.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
Gee, can you guess fall is really here? Yet even after the driest summer ever, we are still over 8” of rain ahead for the year and we have the wettest months ahead of us. Needless to say, it is going to be very interesting.
A quick look at the charts shows a weak trough of low-pressure off the coast today with three more low-pressure systems lined up for the weekend. The interesting part is that for the central Sound, Saturday is going to be very different from Sunday. The Saturday morning chart shows a warm front off the coast with 50-knots forecast for the northern coast of Oregon and the southern coast of Washington. The postfrontal area shows a very strong onshore flow with winds consistently over 30 knots. If you thought the surf along the coast this week (19-21’) was impressive, just wait. This is reinforced by the jet stream which is coming directly across the Pacific and right into the Pacific Northwest. The folks flying back from Hawaii will really benefit from the 100-knot tailwinds. If it was only a little further south it would be bringing much-needed rain into the wine country of northern California.
20 October Surface Chart
21 Oct 500MB
21 October Surface Forecast
22 October 500MB
22 Oct Surface Forecast Chart
24 Oct Surface Forecast Chart
The result of all this for boaters is that the eastern end of the Straits of Juan de Fuca will be fairly wild on Saturday with gale warnings in place until early Saturday evening for SE winds of 30-40 knots with higher gusts. By late Saturday night, the postfrontal wind will kick-in with 25-30 knots of westerly in the same area of the Straits.
For the central and south Puget Sound, Saturday will be fairly benign until the postfrontal flow starts coming through the Chehalis gap in the early evening Saturday. By Saturday evening expect 15-25 knots of southwesterly over the area. By Sunday morning this will ease over the south Sound however you can expect 15-20 knots of southerly over the central Sound to last most of the day.
This will be a great weekend to break out the extra winter mooring lines and chafe gear as well trade phone numbers with your slip mate in case of mooring emergencies. While I am definitely in favor of winter cruising, Saturday morning would be a great time to take the roller furling jib down and get it to the sailmaker. Leaving those roller furling jibs up in the winter is just asking for trouble. When you do decide to go cruising, just use the number 3 or number 4 headsail, easy to rig, easy to stow.
Be sure to take a look at the chart for 24 Oct as once again we are expected have a fairly strong high-pressure system over the area which will be a welcome respite from the rain this weekend. Then, look to the west and check out that MONSTER 947MB low-pressure in the Aleutians which could impact our weather by next weekend!
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
Finally, our weather is definitely changing and going back to more normal conditions. We can say goodbye to the above normal temps, goodbye to the smoke and put the welcome mat out for some rain which will end our record dry spell. All good, well almost all good. There will be some problems associated with these changes, not really much for boaters but if you’re staying at home you should be aware. The first problem that occurs after such a long dry spell is that roads have now picked up a significant coating of oil and other petroleum products which when the rain comes will make them very slick. The second problem is the dust and other gunk that has accumulated on transformers and power poles can become conductive with rain causing power outages and even fires resulting from the short circuits. Perhaps the most significant problem will be the lightning that will be coming in with this trough of low pressure. There simply isn’t enough going to be enough rain to put out the fires that may be started by the lightning.
500MB August 11
Surface Forecast August 11
Surface Forecast August 12
500MB August 13
Surface Forecast August 13
500MB August 15
Surface Forecast August 15
For boaters, we’ve already got southerlies over the inland waters and those will continue over the weekend until the post frontal northerly makes its way down the Sound on Sunday afternoon. Per usual the most wind will be in the central and eastern portion of the Strait of Juan de Fuca with gale warnings up for tonight and tomorrow afternoon. Still, no major reason to stay home. Summer is fading rapidly so why not get out and enjoy our waters. I have it from a very reliable source that the areas where it is legal to crab are producing some excellent catches.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
We’ve all probably had enough weather this week with record high temperatures and all that smoke coming down from the wild fires in BC. Not much is going to change over the weekend as this thermally induced trough will remain over the Pacific NW for most of this weekend with the possibility of a weak onshore flow developing late tomorrow and continuing into early next week. Then by the end of next week we can expect more high temps as a weak high pressure system will be pushed into eastern BC and eastern Washington by a weak low pressure system. The folks returning from TransPac will continue to be frustrated by a weaker than normal Pacific High that simply is not getting any stronger or more stable.
Surface Forecast Aug 5
Surface Forecast 6 Aug
Surface Forecast Aug 7
In summary, it’s going to stay smokey over the Pacific NW with not much wind. The good news is that it’s going to be much cooler out on the water so why not head out and enjoy it. Lake Washington will be busy with SeaFair and plenty of emphasis patrols to make sure no one is having too much fun out there, BUI is no joke so be a smart boater.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
You’re probably getting tired of me pontificating about how interesting the weather has been but yesterday was truly exceptional. The team at the National Weather Service Office at Sand Point deserves a hearty well done for doing an exceptional job yesterday by getting it exactly right with just the right amount of warnings and none of the drama, just the facts. It was great to go back and forth from the computer to window and watch this event unfold.
May 4 Radar
To quantify it, in the past five years we’ve had six warnings. Yesterday we had EIGHT! I’ve attached the Doppler Radar from 1535 yesterday afternoon and it was certainly colorful and if you look closely, there are three watch boxes. In addition, at one point in the early evening when the largest system was moving over Olympia, the Doppler was showing a rainfall rate of 20.57”/hour. Impressive. CYC Seattle did the right thing keeping the fleets off the water last night. Lightning can be a woefully unpredictable critter and it was simply not worth taking a chance.
Unfortunately (or fortunately, if you’re a powerboater), we’ll pay a post-frontal price this weekend. As you can see from this mornings chart, the front is just over us and off of San Fran we have, if you’re thinking about TransPac, a nicely developing Pacific High. It’s about medium strength, however, the real key is that it is starting to round up nicely. The rounder it is, the more stable it is. The bad news would be that if we were starting TransPac tomorrow, the first three days would be a real thrash. 30-40 knots of NNW as we leave the coast. That would really sort the fleet out in a hurry. I digress.
May 5 500MB
May 5 Surface Chart
May 6 Surface Forecast
May 7 500MB
May 7 Surface Forecast
May 9 500MB
As I was about to say, in the usual scheme of things (if there is such a thing) in the Pacific Northwest, after frontal passage the first day the ridge of high-pressure establishes itself is the best day for wind from the north. As each day passes, the amount of breeze decreases. The problem for this weekend will be that persistent trough of low pressure over southern BC which will prevent a ridge of high pressure from developing.
For the sailors, this will mean a light and variable southerly for the start of the day. A northerly will develop however the timing of that will be tough as it will depend upon the amount of clearing we have over the area. The earlier the clearing, the sooner the land will start to warm and the sooner the breeze will start filling down the Sound. In the absence of a pressure gradient, it may come down with the flood tide, the Swihart Effect. So let’s look at the tides for the weekend, which will have a profound effect on the Race to the Straits.
Admiralty Inlet Tidal Current at Bush Point
Saturday
0630 Max Ebb 2.92 knots
1024 Slack
1248 Max Flood 1.4 knots
1524 Slack
1848 Max Ebb 2.16 knots
Sunday
0712 Max Ebb 3.12 knots
1106 Slack
1336 Max Flood 1.75 knots
1630 Slack
1942 Max ebb 2.17 knots
Since the RTS is a reverse start with handicaps applied at the start, the early starters on Saturday will have more positive tide but less wind. Since the northerly will fill down the west side of the Sound first, the key will be to simply use what wind there is to aim at Double Bluff, the first and only mark of the course. As you work your way to the north and you start running into flood, tend more to the west beach to get out of the tide. At Pt No Point it will be just go on across to Useless Bay and the mark at Double Bluff. The later in the day, the more wind you’ll have to deal with the flood.
The trade-off going north from Double Bluff will be to work the Whidbey Island back eddies before going across to Marrowstone where the ebb will be starting first. You would like to hit the Marrowstone shore so you can also be on the inside of the port tack lifts as you work your way towards the Marrowstone Light. After Marrowstone if you are in the ebb, watch the Cog and Sog and stay on the north side of the Midchannel Bank to stay in the ebb just don’t overstand the finish line by being swept too far to the west.
Sunday it looks like the later starters will have the advantage of both more wind and less tide. The early starters will have to fight the ebb at Marrowstone and then work their way across to the Whidbey Shore. It should be a nice sail back to the finish at Shilshole after Double Bluff remembering that the flood will start first on the west side of the Sound and be slightly stronger there. The wind will be fairly even across the Sound so the angles will be key, gybing on lifts, covering your competition and watching where the smart guys are going.
For the Lake sailors, the breeze may take a bit longer to fill at Lake Washington but it will get there. Since its Team Racing, it will be more about Team tactics than going the right way. One thing to watch for in the mornings on the Lake is that the breeze may start out from the west-northwest and from there it will clock to the north-northwest. A small change but you might be able to break a cover with it.
Have a great weekend and enjoy the improving weather.
Ed. Note: If you’ve never seen team racing, it’s amazing to watch, and you’ll be able to see it from shore at Sail Sand Point both Saturday and Sunday. Be impressed by the skills of our regional high school sailors. Also on Saturday 11-3 SSP hosts the Youth Sailing Open House put together by The Sailing Foundation.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
Certainly another interesting day out there and real fun for the weather geeks. As we said yesterday, this looked like just another winter weather storm, slightly elevated wind speeds but not as strong as the TV and radio folks would like to have us believe. As I write, the barometer here as well as in the Straits, and along the coast has started to go up which should indicate that this low-pressure system has started to arc away from the coast. In some cases rising rapidly which can be as bad as falling rapidly so we’ll watch those stations. The coastal buffer zone once again is helping to diminish wind speeds over the interior of Western Washington. Note the chart for Cape Elizabeth, which I will try to update before sending this out. I’ve also included the Langley Hill Doppler radar image because you can really see where the low-pressure is centered off our coast, especially if you run the “Reflectivity Loop.” It is clearly moving away from the coast.
As you can see from the surface charts everything is pointing towards a post frontal kind of weekend. I think given the option I probably wouldn’t head out this afternoon and instead just get the boat ready to go tomorrow, late morning. For the north, central, and south Sound expect 15-25 knots for south-southwesterly until mid to late afternoon. Before going anywhere, check the station reports on your VHF. Remember that the definition of heavy weather is the point at which you don’t feel comfortable with you, your crew or your vessel being able to handle the conditions. No harm in just spending a comfortable weekend at the dock getting caught up on boat chores or reading those owner’s manuals.
April 7 Surface Chart
April 7 Cape Elizabeth Wind Speed/Air Pressure
April 8 Surface Forecast
April 9 500MB
April 9 Surface Forecast Chart
April 10 Surface Forecast Chart
April 11 500MB
April 11 Surface Forecast
April 14 Surface Forecast Chart
April 15 Surface Forecast Chart
By Sunday things will ease off in the Sound however along the coast we’ll start to feel the effects of yet another low-pressure system headed our way. Check the 48 hour surface chart. More lows are out there however they are starting to weaken and as we saw this week, the closer they get to our coastal buffer zone, the weaker they become. There is some hope for better weather after all. The downside is in the 500MB charts which have the jet stream well to the south of us which is actually going to allow more moisture into California and keep us cooler and wetter than normal.
For PSSR at Shilshole, the boats and crews that like breezy conditions are going to love Saturday. The challenge will be where CYC sets the start-finish line. That’s because even though the conditions are post-frontal, in other words, a southwesterly flow over the Sound, you will still have a very localized southeasterly coming out of the Ship Canal. This challenge will be compounded by stronger shifts to the southwest as the day goes on and the breeze starts to ease. Very tactical and challenging racing for sure.
I had a request from my friend Peter Salusbury up in Vancouver to gaze deeply into the crystal ball to see what conditions we may have for the best long distance race in the Pacific Northwest, South Straits of Georgia which will be starting on Friday, the 14th of April. Needless to say, if it had started today it would have been quite a thrash but then again we’ve come to expect this of that race. While the 11 April chart continues to show what appears to be an unrelenting string of low-pressure systems out there, they are really starting to weaken, except for that monster 972MB low on the International Dateline. It, however, is not moving our way so at this point conditions are looking relatively benign. Doesn’t mean you can slack off in your safety preparation, however. I’ve included the Navy charts for Friday and Saturday next weekend. I’ll have a special South Straits forecast on Thursday with a weekend post on Friday.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
