Foulweather Bluff Race

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 4, 5, and 6 Oct 2019, Foulweather Bluff Race

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs, Weather 0 Comment
Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 4, 5, and 6 Oct 2019, Foulweather Bluff Race

It may have been a little wet this morning but that is probably over until Monday and Tuesday of next week. That’s the good news, the bad news is that the Foulweather Bluff Race should have been held today. Plenty of wind over the entire course, partial sun, and minimal tides, in other words, a rare perfect day for sailing on the Salish Sea. Tomorrow will be much different.

Foul Weather Bluff currents

The reason is easy to see if you compare today’s surface analysis chart with the surface forecast chart for tomorrow. The chart for today shows a convoluted and confusing set of systems right over the Pacific Northwest. We see the 1012MB low-pressure system with the remains of the front that passed over the area this morning bracketed to the north and south by two, weak, high-pressure systems. This low will be broken up by the coastal buffer zone and a weak onshore flow will develop overnight.  The onshore flow will result in a very light southerly over the race area by tomorrow morning however by about mid-day the flow will become more of a drainage northerly shifting to a very weak offshore flow as high pressure builds over eastern Washington. This will bring light and variable winds over the race area and most of the Salish sea, accompanied by plenty of sun. Dig out the sunblock, the wind finder, and the 1/2oz chutes. 

SST 12 Sept
SST 3 October
  • October 4 500MB
  • October 4 Surface Analysis
  • October 5 Surface Forecast
  • October 6 500MB
  • October 6 Surface Forecast
  • October 8 500 MB
  • October 8 Surface Forecast
Oct 4 color satellite

As far as tactics for the FWB Race, it will be a matter of drag racing from hole to hole, sailing the shortest possible course, and not getting too far off the rhumbline to the next mark. I wish I had better news for you, however, the race committee has always done a pretty good job of not setting too long a course on these light air days. Regardless, we always have a great time in Edmonds.   

Luckily, the tides will remain very minimal over the area for Saturday the reason can be seen in the current chart for Foulweather Bluff.

Oct 4 Satellite

Also of interest is the 500MB charts which are now showing a distinct lowering of the jet stream and a more seasonal flow pattern which will bring not only more rain into the Pacific Northwest but it will also have the effect of starting to break up the warm water blob off of our coast. As you can see from the sea surface temperature charts, it is already having an impact. Let’s keep our fingers crossed on that.

Have a great weekend!

Wx for 5, 6, and 7 Oct. Foulweather Bluff Race

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs , 2 Comments
Wx for 5, 6, and 7 Oct. Foulweather Bluff Race

It’s finally starting to look a lot more like Seattle today as the streets are wet and the lawns are screaming thank you to the rain. You can clearly see why in today’s surface analysis chart which shows an occluded front extending from a 1004MB Low-Pressure system that is going to just barely hit us today as it heads in a southeasterly direction towards Oregon. After it passes, the high-pressure system you see over eastern Washington and southern BC will interact with this passing low-pressure to bring a northerly flow over the Salish Sea tonight and into tomorrow morning. As the offshore high-pressure rebuilds, this will cause an onshore flow to bring a westerly down the Straits of JdF tomorrow afternoon. This will also cause the northerly gradient to weaken over the area starting by early to mid-afternoon. As you can see from the radar shot, the end of the rain is now showing up off the coast.

Click any image to enlarge.

How does this translate to the Foulweather Bluff Race? The models are not in agreement as to when the northerly breeze will start ease. The GFS model has 5 knots of northerly in the starting area and building slightly as you head west and then easing to 4 knots at around 1400 hours. The MM5 model has 5 knots in the starting area, then building to 10 knots of northerly by Scatchet Head, building to 12-15 knots of NW as you head across the Sound. This will ease to about 10 knots by 1400 hours across the Sound becoming 5-8 in the start finish area. By 1700 hours it will ease to 5-10 knots of northwesterly all across the Sound except less than 5 in the start-finish area. Plus we may have some fog in the morning which will really make life interesting.

Running the numbers for a J-30 if it were to go on the Long Course it would take them about 8.5 hours to finish. If they were sent on Course 2 it would take them about 5 hours.

Running the numbers for Crossfire, if they were sent on the Long Course it would take them about 3.75 hours. If they went on Course 2 it would take them about 2.33 hours.

The other factor will be the tides at Foulweather Bluff:

0930      Slack

1212      Max Flood            1.3 knots

1606      Slack

2012      Max Ebb                 .47 knots

 

Your basic tactics are going to be to get a clear start and hold starboard off the line to get away from the Edmonds shore and tack when you are slightly overstood on the Scatchet Head because the tidal velocity increases as you get closer to the mark and the wind can ease under that bluff. From there whether you are going Long Course or Course 2 you just sail the course to the next mark and anticipate the set as you approach the FWB mark. You’ll probably do a gybe set at that mark so talk that through before you get there and then it will be trim, trim, trim, all the way to finish anticipating that the breeze will ease as you approach the Edmonds shore which will mean moving people out of the cockpit and up to the shrouds to keep the stern out of the water.

If you are going on Course 2 then you may not be able to set at the first mark just be ready as you get to Pt No Pt because you will be lifted as you approach Pilot Point and then be ready to gybe at the Pilot Pt mark.

Sunday it will be generally light over the Sound as we await the approach of another frontal system late Sunday afternoon which will bring more rain to the area. Note also that the great folks at the NWS have now added a 72 Hour forecast chart. Finally!

Have a great weekend, have a great race and we’ll see you up there.

 

 

 

Big Little Duel in Foulweather Bluff Race

Kurt Hoehne Racing 0 Comment
Big Little Duel in Foulweather Bluff Race

By all accounts this year’s Edmonds YC Foulweather Bluff Race last Saturday wasn’t the most tactically intriguing, but it was a good chance for a clash of the Titans, namely Gay Morris’ Shark 24 Fayaway and Bill Stange’s Westsail 32 (yes, Westsail 32) Hula. See below for the blow by blow account.

Crossfire’s Track

While the big boats didn’t figure in the overall podium standings, they of course had a great race among themselves with Glory coming out on top of Crossfire and Smoke. According to Nigel Barron of Crossfire, the key moment was shortly after the start when Crossfire and and Smoke gybed to get north while Glory headed across the Sound. “That was the move,” Barron reported, “As you can see, three gybes and no tacks for the race. Not a lot of passing lanes.” Crossfire‘s track at left.

Other notable performances were put in by Kiwi Express which edged Here and Now by under a minute, Jaded which won the 7-boat J/105 class and Bat Out Of Hell which beat the Flying Tiger Anarchy by only 30 seconds.

Jan and Skip Anderson (and the pooch Mocha) were on hand to catch the smiles and the start. Please go to her FWB gallery and enjoy the photos. Here are some. Click to enlarge.

But the real battle of the day took place in Class 2, and it would be hard to find three more different boats in a cruiser racer class. Fittingly, they ended up 1st, 2nd and 4th overall among the monohulls. (Yeah, the catamaran Dragonfly corrected time was in there too but she’s really in a class of her own) I’ll let my friend Gay Morris of the Shark 24 Fayaway (2200lbs) describe his battle with the Perry Quarter Tonner Bingo (4000 lbs?) and Bill Stange’s Westsail 32 Hula (19500 lbs):

Clash of the Titans

Foulweather Bluff 2017 was a very memorable sail for us on the little Shark 24, Fayaway. The race was quick, basically a run and two close reaches. It was not a very challenging course. We started well at the west end of the line and reached west. The tide was ebbing and the 5-6 knot southerly was showing signs of increasing. Soon after the start I looked down and saw the Westsail 32 Hula sailing very well. She had speed on us.

Citroën 2CV, or “Deux Chevaux” in case you were wondering.

They were flying their beautiful pink kite just perfectly and inching ahead all the time. One of the Shark’s weaknesses is downwind in light air. Even with Fayaway‘s penalty spinnaker and double penalty main we could just not keep pace. I told my crew we were being out horse-powered, like a Deux Chevaux against a big Buick. The Quarter Tonner Bingo was going very well too.

Once out west of the Possession Bar most of us gybed toward Scatchet Head. The winds went lighter, maybe 3-4 knots. I remember hearing a train going by Meadowdale and told my crew that we should get an easterly shift. We did and had a good reach for the mark, staying high because of the ebbing tide. Bingo was first around, having sailed a very nice run. Hula was right on their tail a half mile ahead of us.

The reach to Pilot Point was a straight away close reach and the wind built up to 12 knots from the south. Hula moved out again nicely, using her greater waterline.

At the rounding Hula lost a little by going inshore before tacking. Fayaway tacked at the mark and headed east right away. The winds built to about 15. The Shark loves a breeze. They do not point high but do go very fast for their rating. For a light boat they do not slow down in the chop like so many boats do. We eased sheets slightly, hiked hard and went fast, passing four boats on this last leg.  Ahead of us Hula went fast and munched through the chop easily. We did gain a couple minutes on the last leg but Hula was too far out there. I guess we ran out of runway. A few more miles and we would have corrected on her. Hula corrected to first overall and Fayaway second overall, about two minutes behind. Bill Stange is an excellent sailor and his crew did a perfect job. It is always a pleasure racing against him no matter what boats are involved. – Gay Morris

And Then There’s This – Take Note Race Organizers!

And we have to include this nice note from John Wolfe of CYC Edmonds:

Dear Kurt,

We Corinthians in Edmonds thank you as editor and Bruce Hedrick as contributor for the spot on forecast which made it easier for our race committee to run a shorter course for the faster boats in last Saturday’s FWB race.

NOAA’s forecast had us all licking our lips for much better than average wind but Bruce Hedrick’s forecast reeled us back to the reality that you have to sail with the wind you have.

Thanks! John Wolfe CYCE

Race Organizers: Bruce has kindly been offering up his weather outlooks and racers and committees respond! The Briefs engage sailors and get everybody thinking about this puzzle that is the Salish sea. Ours, after all, is as much a intellectual sport as it is a boatspeed challenge. And while even a Bruce Brief forecast isn’t always spot on, it helps everyone make better decisions. Please get in touch with me about your event and I’ll beg Bruce to put his thinking cap on for your race – then help me spread the word that the Brief exists. Thanks! -KMH