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Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 21, 22, 23, and 24 May 21, 2021. Perfect weekend for the Anacortes Boat and Yacht Show and it’s FREE!

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs May 21, 2021May 21, 2021 0 Comment

I almost could have simply done a cut and paste from last weekend’s forecast but that wouldn’t have been any fun. We once again have high pressure offshore and low-pressure inland. What was interesting was the mid-week transition where we had a real mix of conditions with all forms of precipitation and enough vertical instability for lightning and thunder. Things have settled back down and this will bring us a fairly nice weekend while we get ready for Swiftsure….well, maybe next year.

We still have a weak high-pressure system (1031MB) offshore and it is not setting up in what we would consider the “normal” position for the summer Pacific High, it is too far south, and too far to the east. The other feature is the relative weakness of this high when combined with the continuing flow of low-pressure systems across the north Pacific is forcing the jet stream into a meridional flow with the jet stream now coming ashore to the south of us which is keeping temps on the cooler side of normal. This is probably a good thing since we are now behind on rainfall for the month and the year. This will change and as we transition from La Niña to a more neutral situation we can expect a warmer and dryer summer which will almost certainly bring an elevated threat of wildfires and more smoke to the Salish Sea.

As we go through the weekend, the pressure gradient will ease over the Northwest however the onshore flow in the Straits of JdF will bring a cranking westerly with gale warnings for the central and eastern Straits. The flow will continue down Admiralty Inlet on Saturday and then ease overnight. As the flow along the coast transitions from NNW to WNW, this will bring a light southerly into the Sound for Sunday. So if you’re cruising this weekend you can run south on Saturday and then run home on Sunday. Not bad!

Another weak frontal system will pass over the area Tuesday and Wednesday bringing the possibility of some drizzle.

As always, enjoy the weekend and apply the sunblock early and often.

Sail Softly but Carry a Big Stick

Kurt Hoehne Uncategorized May 8, 2021May 8, 2021 0 Comment

The mighty Zvi (nee Crossfire) on SYC’s Vashon Island Race. Nigel Barron reports from onboard :

But #hit if Bruce isn’t calling our finish time again.

Yes, Bruce Hedrick enjoys predicting these things, then watching the AIS to see how things pan out.

We’ll be reporting on this and several recent events shortly.

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 7, 8, 9, & 10 May 2021 SYC Vashon Island Race

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs, Racing May 7, 2021May 7, 2021Tri-Island Series, Vashon Island Race 0 Comment

Considering what a weird year for weather it has been it probably shouldn’t surprise anyone that it looks like a fairly nice weekend for sailing. The very strange part is that there will be more wind in the South Sound than in the Central and North Sound. Plus, for once even though we are setting up for an onshore flow, after today the Straits won’t be howling.

Today’s surface analysis chart combined with today’s satellite pic show a weak trough of low-pressure over the Sound with a weak high offshore. This pattern will persist over the weekend bringing a predominately southerly flow along the coast and into the Sound for tomorrow. The high will gradually build over the area bringing light air for Mothers Day. Since it is a weak onshore flow there will be some breeze coming through the Chehalis Gap with a stronger push later in the day as the offshore flow shifts from southerly to westerly. If you like sailing in 5-11-knots of S-SW breeze, you will like tomorrow.

The problem will be that dash between the 5 and 11. The breeze will be spotty in places and shifty along the west side of the Sound. From Shilshole to Pt. Robinson you’ll want to sail fairly close to the rhumbline and avoid the obvious holes. After Robinson, look for long starboard tacks and short port tacks so you don’t get too close to the beach where while there may be big starboard tack lifts in close, the breeze will be lighter.

The bottom end of Vashon will be its usual challenge with light air in close and better current well off the beach. Just find the happy medium, usually easier said than done.

Going north in Colvos will be sailing your gybe angles and trying to find the strongest current. As you get to the north end of Colvos the ebb will be slightly stronger along the Blake Island side just don’t get in too close. From Blake to the finish will be staying in the breeze and not sailing too far off of rhumb.

Not a lot of definitive information here but it will be one of those days where keeping your head out of the boat, watching the puffs, and the competition will keep tacticians very busy.

The models are fairly consistent with the RP-55 and the TP-52’s finishing the long course by about 1630 hrs. The J-125 in at1930 hrs, the B-40.7 in at 2115, and the J-109 in at 2140hrs.

The J-105s on the short course should be home by about 1830 hours.

Enjoy the weekend and leave your AIS on so I can track you.

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 30 Apr, 1, 2, 3, May. STYC Race to the Straits COVID Variant

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs April 30, 2021April 30, 2021 0 Comment

Looks like just under 70 boats have signed up for the Sloops always popular Race to the Straits Race. Unfortunately, it also looks like someone forgot to get the wind on the same page. As you can see from the surface analysis chart today and the satellite pic, the front will move through today followed by a strong, post-frontal onshore flow down the Straits. The wind offshore will remain relatively light, 10-12 knots from the NW, which will mean that there won’t be much flow through the Chehalis Gap. This means that as the day goes on, the Central Sound will be in the light air lee of the Olympics.

The course this year is interesting as you won’t be going to Port Townsend. Instead on Saturday you’ll round Possession Point Buoy and return to Shilshole. Sunday start at Shilshole round Blake Island to starboard and return to Shilshole.

Tidal currents will an issue especially on Saturday. Listed below is the current at Foulweather Bluff which approximates Possession Pt. Remember also the ebb flows south out of Possession Sound and that ebb carries south along the Edmonds shore almost all the way to Edmonds.

Date Time (LST/LDT) Event Speed (knots)

2021-05-01 06:06 AM flood 1.20

2021-05-01 08:18 AM slack –

2021-05-01 12:12 PM ebb -2.74

2021-05-01 03:30 PM slack –

2021-05-01 06:42 PM flood 2.66

Tidal Current Sunday at West Point

Date Time (LST/LDT) Event Speed (knots)

2021-05-02 06:18 flood 0.39

2021-05-02 09:00 slack –

2021-05-02 10:42 ebb -0.34

2021-05-02 12:30 slack –

2021-05-02 19:06 flood 0.93

As is typical following frontal passage, the best time for breeze will be immediately after the front passes. The more time that passes, the more the pressure gradient will ease as will the breeze except where the breeze in the Straits is topographically compressed from Sheringham Point to the Eastern end of the Straits. By late in the day, each day, the breeze will slowly fill down Admiralty Inlet. Between those times it will be light.

Saturday, the boats that start early will have an advantage because there will still be some southerly and there will be a nice ebb to get to Edmonds then as mentioned above you’ll have to fight the ebb coming out of Possession Sound. Remember also that the breeze typically goes light the closer you get to Possession Point. The current is also flowing from east to west at the buoy so you will want to watch your set as you approach the mark. No need to swap paint with the buoy. The return trip to Shilshole will be light and shifty with some northerly late in the afternoon.

Sunday will simply be light air in the central Sound and if it’s light in the central Sound it will be dead behind Blake Island. The good news is that the models are not in total agreement about will happen however your best bet will be to log the baro pressures around the Pac NW from your VHF when you leave the boat on Saturday and then check again when you get to the boat Sunday morning.

Another weak frontal system will pass through the area late Monday and into Tuesday with the rest of the week remaining cloudy with average temps. See the 3 May surface forecast chart.

Enjoy the weekend!

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 23, 24, 25, 26, April. SYC Protection Island Race

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs, Racing April 23, 2021April 23, 2021 0 Comment

After a very nice stretch of record-setting beautiful weather, things will start changing this evening and continue through the weekend. This will mean rain for tomorrow but a not so rainy day on Sunday. The surface analysis chart shows a number of weak low-pressure systems along the West Coast however with slightly higher pressure offshore this will keep the onshore flow in place. As a weak frontal system moves onshore tonight and into tomorrow this will allow a weak trough of low pressure to persist over the area through the weekend. All of these factors contribute to the fact that the models are not in agreement about what will actually happen on the racecourse.

We do however know what will be happening with the tides which combined with what looks like a bit of light air will certainly make the racing interesting.

Tidal Currents in Admiralty Inlet off of Bush Point.

0706 Max Ebb 2.25 knots

1000 Slack

1254 Max Flood 2.33 knots

1624 Slack

1906 Max ebb 1.95 knots

2148 Slack

Sunday

0048 Max Flood 2.51 knots

0430 Slack

0742 Max Ebb 2.69 knots

1036 Slack

1336 Max Flood 2.70 knots

The surface forecast chart for tomorrow shows very little pressure gradient over the Pacific NW however with seven low-pressure systems, five inland from the Canadian Border south to the Sea of Cortez and two off of our coast, this will keep a southerly breeze over the central Sound for tomorrow morning. As the front moves through and dissipates this will bring, shall we say, unsettled conditions to the racecourse. Plenty of wind to get started however as the fleet goes north the wind will ease as you get closer to Pt. No Pt. By midday, a weak offshore flow will develop in the Straits resulting in a SE flow in Admiralty Inlet. With the tide starting to flood about 1000hrs this will keep the fleet on the beach and having to deal with the dilemma of Skunk Bay where there will be less tide but less wind. By mid-afternoon, the north end of Admiralty Inlet will be light and this will extend out to Protection Island. With max flood approaching three-knots at Pt. Wilson, this will make getting out to the Straits very interesting. Gradually, a weak onshore flow will develop in the Straits and slowly fill down Admiralty Inlet where eventually it will meet the southerly flow coming up the Central Sound. All the while, wind velocities will remain in the 5-9-knot range. This is going to keep navigators and tacticians on their toes trying to figure out where the next puff will come from. Once again the lighter boats with the taller rigs will do better in these conditions.

The current NAM model has the RP-55 around the course in about 15 hours finishing just after midnight, the TP-52’s around in 16 hours, the Beneteau 40.7 around in 19 hours, and the J-109 around in 19.5 hours, almost a sunrise finish.

On the short course, the J-105’s should be around in 8 hours finishing around 1800 hrs.

The other surface chart of interest is the 48hr surface forecast which sets a new record on the Roser Low Index Scale with 14 low pressure systems plotted, including the Post Tropical Cyclone Surigae making into the western Pacific. This will combine with another low-pressure system to produce a very strong low capable of hurricane-force winds in the western Pacific. We will definitely want to watch where this system goes especially since the 500MB charts show the flow becoming more meridional over the central Pacific.

Enjoy the weekend!

Ed. Note: For all of us small boat sailors, PSSR small boats promises to be shifty as well.

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 16, 17, 18, and 19 Apr. A perfect weekend to be out on the Water! You’ll need SUNBLOCK!

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs April 16, 2021April 16, 2021 0 Comment

One of those weeks where we love the Pacific NW. We had a record high temp yesterday and it will remain warm and sunny this weekend. The rest of the country is not so nice with more snow in Colorado, a hellacious windstorm off of Louisiana that capsized a large oil platform boat and took lives, a developing storm system off the NE US that will bring rain and strong winds to coastal New England and more snow to their interior. Then late Sunday and into early next week we will see yet another blast of cold air come down from Canada and into the upper Mid-West. All the while and into next week we will have to deal with more sunny skies and temps in the upper 60’s and low 70’s, DARN!

Today’s surface analysis chart shows the reason for these conditions with two weak high-pressure systems (1022MB off of SoCal and 1026Mb off of Haida Gwai) offshore and a persistent 1031MB high in southern BC. The way these are oriented will continue to bring an offshore flow to the area which combined with some downslope compressional heating will help keep the Salish Sea warmer than normal. The pressure gradient has eased considerably from mid-week and will continue to do so over the weekend bringing lighter breeze to our waters.

As far as sailboat racing goes, it is going to be light and shifty no matter where you’ll be sailing with the best chance of wind coming in the mid to late afternoon both days in the Central Sound in the form of an 8-12 knot northerly.

The other charts of interest today are the 48-96hr surface forecast charts and the 500MB charts. The 48hr chart shows a weak(987MB) but round and well-formed low-pressure system with an attached frontal system off of the Oregon Coast drifting to the north however the front will start slightly impacting our weather by Tuesday. The high over BC will strengthen to 1045MB and that will keep the low-pressure systems offshore and weaken the fronts as they approach the coast. The high-pressure system offshore is still not very strong and it will elongate as it gets pushed by the next low-pressure system coming in from the mid-Pacific.

The 500MB charts show that finally, the jet stream is shifting to the north as the flow becomes more meridional. This will keep the temps near normal and at least on this side of the mountains, I think we’ve seen the last of freezing temps. I know I’m moving the plants that have been indoors all winter back out to the deck this afternoon.

The 96hr 500MB chart shows the formation of an upper-level cut-off low-pressure system off the north end of Vancouver Island. While it won’t be a huge weather maker it may bring rain to our area by late next weekend and into the next week.

It’s always interesting to watch the weather transition as it occurs, so if you’re on the water don’t be lulled into a sense of complacency. Also remember that, as at least one of the Hoehne boys found out, the water may look very inviting but it is still very cold!

Have a great weekend!

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 9, 10, 11, and 12 April. Sloop Tavern Blakely Rock Benefit Race.

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs April 9, 2021April 9, 2021Blakely Rock Benefit Regatta 1 Comment

This will certainly be a very interesting race as the models are nowhere in agreement about what will happen when. Once again the race will have an amazing turnout with over 100 boats currently registered and it’s all for a good cause, The Center for Wooden Boats. They even have a boat in the race, the beautifully restored Pirate (Thank you, Scott Rohrer.)

Today’s surface analysis chart, Sat Pic, and Langely Doppler all agree that we have a front headed our way which will pass over our area late this afternoon. Behind this front, a strong onshore flow will develop with gale warnings posted for the Central and Eastern Strait of JdF and strong northerlies along the coast. This will bring breeze in through the Chehalis Gap and up the Sound. The strong onshore flow and the weaker flow through the Gap have to meet somewhere and that will be the challenge for tomorrow. Eventually, the stronger flow down the Straits will push down the Sound and the timing of that is uncertain.

The problem for the race committee may be that at 1100hrs the breeze will still be light and from the south which would dictate a course that goes to Blakely Rock first. The breeze will then start to ease and may go dead for a short while right in the middle of the starting sequence before it finally fills in from the NW. Now we have a downwind start, which will be exciting especially since we should get to see the RP-55 Zvi (how do you pronounce that?) in her racing debut come flying through the fleet. Overall, the downwind start would be much preferred over a start in a weak northerly with a flood tide and this huge fleet all bunched up, trying to get around Meadow Point. We’ve seen that movie before and it ain’t pretty as there is generally more breeze on the outside so boats will do their approach on port tack and try to find a hole in a line of starboard tackers trying to get around the mark with what breeze there is all chopped up. There will be more wind further aloft so the tall rigs will benefit in each class.

Once we get started down the Sound in the northerly, you’ll simply sail your polars to the Rock and then get on the wind to head back across to Fourmile Rock being careful to not sail inside of a line from Fourmile to the Lighthouse as it is very shallow in there. Once you pass West Point on starboard you’ll tack when you can lay the entrance to the Ship Canal. If we started in a southerly then it will be a starboard rounding at Meadow Point with a run to the finish so you’ll rig for a port pole if the breeze is east of north otherwise, it’s time for a gybe set to stay in the breeze and the flood tide. You’ll be glad you practiced that.

The current NAM model has the RP-55 around the course in 5hrs and 25 minutes. The current HRRRv4 model has the RP-55 around in 2.25 hrs, the J-111 around in 2.5 hours, the C&C 115 around in 2.65 hrs, and the J-35’s and J-109’s around in 2.75hrs. I’m voting for the HRRR model. It also has the breeze staying out of the SW until mid-afternoon. The UW MM5 model has the northerly filling down by 1300 hrs.

The weather for next week will be the best and warmest we’ve had this year as the jet stream is finally starting to move north. The elongated high-pressure system offshore will continue to direct storm systems into SE Alaska with some remnants of fronts occasionally dragging over the top of us. Generally, the weather is just going to continue to improve.

Good luck, have a great race.

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 2, 3, 4, and 5 April, Easter Weekend, Southern Straits!

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs April 2, 2021April 2, 2021Southern Straits Race 0 Comment

Oops, not really, but it is still fun to remember one of our most favorite races. Probably would have been a nice race with not too much wind just getting a little on the cool side overnight. Then again, if you look at the Surface Analysis Chart and the 500MB Charts you will see the reasons why our weather continues to be wetter and cooler than normal, as we pointed out last week, and why it will continue that way into the coming week.

Today’s Surface Analysis Chart shows a very complex weather picture with no less than SEVEN Low-pressure systems in the NE Pacific and two areas of high pressure including a fairly strong (1038MB) high well out in the Pacific. The Satellite pic also shows these low-pressure systems and associated fronts. These fronts are relatively weak and slow-moving with one clearing the eastern Strait of JdF now and moving into eastern Washington. The next front will arrive Sunday however it will weaken as it comes onshore. High pressure will begin to build over the area after this weak front dissipates. This will keep the wind speed towards the low end of the scale with the central and eastern Straits seeing westerly breeze near 20-knots Saturday night and early Sunday morning. This breeze will ease by mid-morning Sunday.

The other charts of interest are the 500MB charts which show a distinctly meridional flow to the jet stream as it passes over the top of that high-pressure system before dropping to the south along our coast. This is what will allow fronts associated with these weak low-pressure systems to continue to bring cooler air into the Salish Sea.

The 96-hr 500MB Chart also shows the development of an upper-level cut-off low about midway between San Francisco and Hawaii. It probably won’t move very far and it will be interesting to watch how long it will last out there. Remember, it was two years ago that a similar system stalled over Kauai bringing 48” of rain in 24 hours to the north shore, flooding the Hanalei Valley and causing widespread damage.

Dress warmly, be safe, and have a great weekend!

Center Sound Series Wrap

Kurt Hoehne Racing March 29, 2021March 30, 2021Center Sound Series 0 Comment

Scatchet Head

The second and third races of CYC-Seattle’s Center Sound Series were both Puget Sound Specials, with quirky conditions Northwest Sailors (usually) take in stride. What was a little unusual was that the race committee adjusted the courses in both races so that instead of going all the way to Scatchet Head and Three Tree Point, racers sailed around the Sound never too far from Shilshole Bay.

The Scatchet Head Race was most notable for a parking lot that formed near Edmunds at one of the turning marks. We don’t have any photos, but here’s a video from Doug Frazer aboard the J/105 Corvo and an image of the melee at the north mark courtesy of Kwindoo.

When all was said and done, while there were several Did Not Competes, it appears everyone who started finished.

Three Tree Point

The race committee opted for not sending the fleet all the way to Three Tree Point, no doubt urged by Bruce Hedrick’s pre-race weather brief and suggestion. Bruce himself raced aboard Tahlequah, and here’s his report:

There was a lefty at about 1:30 before the start so the pin became favored so we took it. With that shift the boats astern were all into our dirt and one by one were forced to tack. Once everyone had tacked we dug a little deeper into breakwater and then tacked. We held that and it looked good until the breeze went back to the SW. Those who had tacked early also got into more wind so when they came back about 5 boats crossed us. We tacked into the beach just north of West Point and then tacked when we could just scrape over the sandbar at WP. What was weird was the tide was ebbing at WP instead of flooding as predicted. So the folks who were on port outside the buoy got slowed while we just decided to stay inside the buoy and stay on port. Most of the group that crossed us got past the Point and then tacked back to starboard to sail under Magnolia towards Four Mile Rock. One J-105 found the mud and parked up for a while. We held port and got a nice shift to the SW so we tacked and for a while we were aimed at Alki. Using the HB compass it became apparent that the boats on the beach were in more anti-water and maybe less wind as we lifted out on them. The J-109’s went further out than we did and that didn’t seem to hurt them as they stayed ahead of us. Once we got headed down to Duwamish Head, we tacked and were laying the top mark.

We rounded in third behind the two J-109’s, did a starboard set and just started sailing our numbers and watching as the breeze continued to oscillate. In that breeze especially in the lighter spots we can sail deeper than the J-109’s at about the same speed. We did three gybes going across Elliott Bay holding the port gybe to sail inside the buoy at WP. We did one gybe just north of WP to stay away from Lodos who would have been a problem on starboard. With a sprit they have to sail hotter angles but with our shadow they couldn’t get past us so they finally slowed down and went astern of us. I think they also wanted to get back to the east to stay in touch with the other J-109 Eclipse who had gone well to the east but it looked to us like that hurt them and the other J-35. We waited until the breeze went back to the SSW and gybed for the mark.

We had a nice opening to get around the mark and just held port to force the bigger boats that were coming up on us to tack and leave us with a lane of clear air. This was good because both Lodos and Eclipse got caught up in traffic and this allowed us to extend. We tacked to starboard and held that until we were about ½ way to the finish. Both Lodos and Eclipse went back out to the west so we decided to be conservative and just keep us between them and the finish. We had about a 100 yd lead so we waited until we could tack back to starboard and then tacked directly in front of Lodos who waited a while and then did two tacks to clear their air. We gradually worked up underneath them again and put just a little more distance on them. We held starboard until we could lay the finish on port. When we crossed it was becoming apparent that the breeze was going away and as I drove home you could see that Elliot Bay had glassed off and when I got back to West Seattle, it was calm from Alki to the north end of Vashon. So again, a great call by the Race Committee.

That’s a wrap for Center Sound. Three good races, and it’s all starting to feel a little post-Covid normal. A windy Blakely Rock and challenging Scatchet Head and Three Tree Point races. Aaaaaah. Somehow, complaining that the conditions weren’t perfect doesn’t feel appropriate at this time. Many kudos to the race committee that had to overcome a faulty YCV transmission and two bad weather outlooks by thinking on their feet. Results are here. The usual suspects are atop the leader board with Sabrosa (Alex Simanis), Dark Star (Jonathan McKee) and Terramoto (Bill Weinstein) in the top three PHRF fleet spots. The ORC class, all TP 52s, was won by John Buchan’s Glory.

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 26, 27, 28, and 29 Mar. CYC Three Tree Point Rac

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs, Racing March 26, 2021March 26, 2021Center Sound Series, Three Tree Point Race 0 Comment

Almost an inch of rain yesterday (at the airport) and as of today, we are 3.5” above normal and .75 inches ahead of last year which was abnormally moist. Just as long as we don’t get too much heat too fast, it’s fine. Plus the freezing level is going to be coming down significantly late Sunday and into Monday which will help preserve the snowpack. Don’t be surprised to see some snowflakes mixed with the rain.

Today’s surface analysis chart shows the remains of a weak low-pressure system right on top of the Pacific NW hence the cloud cover. There is also a respectable high offshore (1033Mb) which isn’t going to move very far and will help weaken the next front that is due to arrive late Sunday. When you compare the surface chart with the 500MB chart you’ll also see that this high extends well aloft. This is keeping the jet stream to the north before it dives to the south and comes ashore at the US/Mex Border and heads due east. This is the same formula that has resulted in the wild weather in the SE USA over the last 10 days.

Today’s satellite pic, while showing some clearing in the Straits of JdF, still has plenty of cloud cover over the rest of the area. This will continue through tomorrow, just don’t be fooled, be sure to put on plenty of sunblock before you leave the house.

While we have just about a perfect wind for the TTP Race today, the surface forecast chart shows that the pressure gradient will ease over the area tomorrow keeping the breeze in the 5-10-knot range for the start with less wind to the south and the breeze over the racecourse gradually easing over the day. Luckily for us, the Race Committee isn’t afraid to set an alternative course to take advantage of what wind is present. Might as well make it a clean sweep for the Center Sound Series.

Luckily for us, the tides won’t be an issue.

Tidal Current at West Point

0812 Slack

1336 Max Flood .74 knts

1630 Slack

1806 Max Ebb .43 knts

The current NAM model has the TP-52’s around the course in about 6.25 hours, the J-111’s around in 7 hours, and the J-35’s and J-109’s around in 8.5 hours.

By Sunday, another system will make its presence felt over the area as it brings rain and wind to the Salish Sea. It will have the effect of weakening the high currently off of our coast and moving it slightly to the south. What’s very interesting is the 1042MB high behind this front and the 974Mb low off to the NW of this high. Not a trivial low-pressure system. This will be fun to watch as we approach the end of the month.

Have a great weekend.

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Scatchet Head

Three Tree Point

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