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Looks like about 60 boats have signed up for the “NEW” FwBR and it should be beautiful. Unfortunately, today would have been the perfect day for the race even going on the longest of all three courses. Current conditions (1300hrs)  Pt Townsend NW at 15, FwB N at 13, Edmonds NW at 16, West Pt NW at 15. Tomorrow, not so much. We will be following the typical post-frontal pattern in Puget Sound which says that the best day for wind is the day immediately following frontal passage as a ridge of high pressure builds over the NW and that would be today.

It’s called the “New” FwBR because the center of activities has now moved across the Sound from Edmonds to Kingston where the race will now start and finish. With an early start from Edmonds or Shilshole, you can still make the first gun at 1000am.  Kingston is a great place and a great venue for pre and post-race activities, now if only the wind would cooperate…

The other problem tomorrow will be the tides.

Tidal Current at Foulweather Bluff:

0654       Slack

1024       Max Flood           .88 knots

1648       Slack     

As you can see from today’s surface analysis chart, yesterday’s front has moved off to the east with our weak Pacific High still providing us some protection from winter storms. For our friends in SE Alaska, not so much. Please note the blocks that say Rapidly Intensifying and Developing Hurricane Force just off of Dixon Entrance. By tomorrow, the ridge that is building today will substantially weaken tomorrow as the next front approaches and the Pacific High weakens. There will be little to no pressure gradient over the area tomorrow until late tomorrow afternoon when we may see 3-4 knots of wind from the NNE, a direction not know for stability.  By late Saturday night and into early Sunday morning the wind will clock around to the “normal” pre-frontal SE direction while remaining light, as in less than 8-10 knots.

For the rest of the Salish Sea, we can expect winds to remain light and variable through Sunday. A stronger system will move through the area Tuesday.

Tomorrow will be sunny so use the sunblock and enjoy the day. 

Ed. Note: PSSC small boat is also on the calendar for this weekend as is the Northwest Interscholastic Sailing Association singlehanded championships, both off Shilshole Bay Marina. -KH

If you’re going to be out on the water, Saturday is your day! It will be beautiful, temps in the 70’s however wind will be light except in the central Straits where we’ll still have onshore flow giving us westerly winds of 15-25 knots. This will all change overnight Saturday as a series of fronts move through the Salish Sea Sunday and Monday.

Today’s surface chart and sat pic shows the approaching front and the weak high pressure system over the Pacific Northwest. Tomorrow’s surface forecast chart shows quite a gap in the isobars hence the light air and warmer temps.

The Sunday surface forecast chart (48Hr) shows a number of interesting features including Super Typhoon Mindulle just showing in the Western Pacific. We will want to watch this one as it is forecast to increase in intensity. The other features to note are the dual fronts headed our way with a third one located near the 180W which will influence our weather by next Wednesday. Combine these features with the upper level (500MB) charts and you’ll notice that the jet stream will continue its primarily zonal flow while tending to drift to the south. This will lower the temps and increase the number of storms coming into the Pac NW. As I said, welcome to fall.

Sunday will also see a strong prefrontal SE breeze develop along the coast as well as in the central Sound, Admiralty Inlet and the Eastern Straits (15-25 knots). The breeze will ease in the central Sound by mid-day and conditions will remain light until early Sunday evening, while remaining breezy in Admiralty Inlet and the Eastern Straits.

Enjoy today and tomorrow but prepare for very fall like conditions starting this Sunday and continuing well into next week.

Ed. Note: Bruce is back! For a minute I thought I’d have to explain the weather out there. I can tell you it was BLOWING in Anacortes today. KH

I was afraid I have to You would guess from the forecasts that all hell is about to happen around here. The charts, however, tell a different story. The strongest wind is probably happening right now with the strongest winds along the north coast and from Pt Townsend to Bellingham. By 2300 it will all be over except for some southerlies tonight and into tomorrow of 15-25 knots in the central Sound. By Sunday the gradient will ease and lighter conditions will prevail except in the Straits of JdF where a post-frontal onshore flow will develop late Sunday afternoon bringing westerlies of 20-25 knots to the central and eastern Straits.

We still need the rain and judging by the satellite pics we probably won’t get much of that either. We are still about 2.5” behind for the year and about .5” behind for the month. The Cascades will get some rain and even some snow above 6,000 ft. For the lowlands expect less than .5 inches for the weekend.

As you can see from the forecast and 500MB Charts a more typical fall pattern is beginning to develop. The problem as far as rain and wind go is that the lows are still weakening significantly as they come across the Pacific and especially when they hit our coastal buffer zone. The 500MB charts show a predominately zonal flow which will persist into the coming week and bring another weak frontal system into the area Wednesday. The charts still show them moving to the east fairly quickly.

As far as our long-range forecast goes, it now appears we may have another La Niña event developing in late fall and persisting into the spring of 2022. This will bring another wet and cool winter into the Pacific NW so great news for the skiers and then we’ll just have to see how soon our first extreme heat event occurs next summer and what effect that will have on what should be a substantial snowpack.

Just got back from a great delivery up to Ketchikan and while it may sound crazy to do this in the fall, the forecasts were good and we avoided all the heavy weather. You still have to be careful but it can be done safely. We had no problems getting into Canada and the fuel docks were happy to have American visitors. One gentleman in Port McNeill (a great place) asked that we please send more folks up their way.   Checked in with US Customs by phone coming into Ketchikan and again, it was easy.

Enjoy the weekend and it may be the perfect time to check those mooring lines and fenders as well as get those roller furling sails down and into your sailmaker for a check-over.  

We had some rain over the Salish Sea and now we have a weak convergence zone setting up near Everett. At least we don’t live on the Gulf Coast as they are getting ready for Hurricane Ida and this one could be bad as they have already had plenty of rain and the ground is super saturated. In the Pacific we have Hurricane Nora which could impact Z-town, Puerto Vallarta, Mazatlan, Cabo, La Paz, and San Carlos. And we are just approaching the busy part of hurricane season.

We are in for a very nice weekend with sunshine and temps in the 70’s. The winds will be light over the central Sound until the late afternoon when an afternoon northerly of 10-12 knots will fill down the Sound. We will also have usual afternoon westerlies in the Strait of JdF with the potential for small craft advisories in the late afternoon and into the early evening.

The Pacific High is still trying to set up offshore however it is still too weak and will be pushed around by lows coming across the North Pacific. The next system will impact our weather late Monday with the possibility of some light, scattered showers. Since the high is weak and the days are getting shorter this is bringing the jet stream further south which will bring more systems into our region with more rain. Note the 500MB charts. The fire fighters can’t wait for this helping hand. The real question will be can any of these get into California, probably not. Take a look at the Sat Pic for today and note the size of the fire at the south end of Lake Tahoe. 

Have a great weekend, use the sunblock, and be safe.   

You have to admit that it’s great to see boats getting out and doing more long-distance racing and cruising. Zvi, Sonic and Riva have all made it back from TransPac with plenty of great stories. Jubilee sailed back to Portland after having done the Pac NW Offshore Race from Ilwaco to Port Angeles and then cruised the Salish Sea. This week Pasargada cut the dock lines and took off to SF for the start of an extended cruise south. Well done to all of these boats for setting a great example for us.

The weather picture for Salish Sea is pretty much the same as it has been recently. The main difference is that the Pacific High has finally started to set up in a more “normal” position (45N 148W) at a more normal pressure(1034MB), and it is almost round. These would tend to indicate more stability in the high however the long-range forecasts are not in agreement about this. Generally speaking, we will probably continue with the same weather we’ve been having. Not all bad, we could however use some more precip. It does appear that we are probably done with the extreme heat events for this summer.

The pattern of wind in the Straits in the late afternoon and into the early evening with possibility of Small Craft Advisories late Saturday and late Sunday. Wind over the rest of Sound will remain light with exception of mid to late Sunday afternoon when we could have 10-15 knots of northerly fill down the central part of the Sound.

Enjoy the weekend, go boating and stay safe.