Bruce’s Debriefs: CYC Blakely Rock 2022

Bruce’s Debriefs: CYC Blakely Rock 2022

Saturday’s Blakely Rock Race is most assuredly for the books. Conditions were about as close to perfect as you can get. True, they didn’t match any of the models but that’s why we sail the race.

If you take the data from West Point from 1000hrs to 1600hrs you get a picture that is almost unheard of with remarkably stable conditions which turned this into a true boat speed race and even if the fleets split there was almost no wrong way to go. Wind speed varied from a high of 14 knots to a low of 9 knots, which was very close to what we recorded on the boat. Even more interesting was the wind direction which only varied from 010° to 020° again from 1000hrs to 1600hrs. On the boat, we recorded the wind going from 040° to 350°. Interesting just because the wind stayed so far to the East of North.

Then there was all that sunshine, NICE!.

Wind speed at West Point

In a general analysis of the race, it seemed that if you managed to get a clear air start on starboard off the line, you just held starboard until you could almost lay the top mark. Every once and a while there would be a hint of a port tack lift but it never really materialized. It also seemed that if you tacked to port too early and came in really low of the top mark, the wind got lighter and you lost to the boats who stayed out in the Sound.

The run to Blakely Rock had the fleet spread all across the Sound with some boats going to the west and then a single gybe to take them into the Rock. The boats that went east,  like the sprit boats that had to sail wider angles and the boats with poles that could sail deeper all seemed to be in the same relative position at Blakely Rock, no big gains or losses from going one way or the other.

Perhaps the most interesting leg was the one from Blakely Rock to the finish. That route is pretty much cast in concrete, in that you sail to Magnolia and tack at FourMile Rock beat to West Point and then tack when you can lay the entrance to the Ship Canal. It was just so strange to see boats on port tack aimed into Elliott Bay low of Elliott Bay Marina, while some boats that tacked to starboard just after the Rock were sailing right up the Sound. When the West group converged with the Elliott Bay group, they were pretty much in the same places. For a while, the west group appeared to have gotten into a bit of a lefty as the wind went back to 350°and were lifted almost to the finish while on port tack. The problem was that the finish line was still in a NNE and with the flood finally starting to show up, the West group having gained for a while got pushed down to the Elliott Bay group.

Wind direction at West Point

The results show just how even things were on the course With the top four boats overall all within 2.4 minutes.  And they weren’t all from one class with the top four boats being the J-122 Grace(Class 7), 2nd boat the J-125 Hamachi (Class 8), 3rd boat Pell Mell (Class 2), and the TP 52 Smoke (Class 9). 

The J-105 Fleet was also remarkably close with the top eight boats being within 5.18 minutes. Class 6 the top four boats were within 4.37 minutes.

How close was the crystal ball? Not very when it came to the big boats but not surprising considering that we had just over half the wind we were expecting. Zvi was 33 minutes slower, Glory was 25 minutes slower, and Jam was 26 minutes slower.

In the middle fleets it got closer, The J-111’s were within 7 minutes, The J-109 was within 6 minutes, the J-35 was within 12 minutes, and the J-105’s were within 10 minutes. The Sierra 26 just didn’t have enough wind to break loose on the downwind leg so they 11 minutes slower.

All in all a great day to be out on the water.

Photos by Jan Anderson, check ’em all out here. Results here.

Ed. Note: Have some fun with the name “Bruce’s Debriefs.”

Briefs: Wx for 4,5,6, and 8 March.  CYC Blakely Rock Race. YES!

Briefs: Wx for 4,5,6, and 8 March.  CYC Blakely Rock Race. YES!

Without question, our favorite series on the Sound and it’s finally here! Plus, it looks like pretty much ideal conditions with very little, if any, tidal effects. Now if only the top mark will stay set.

Tidal Current at West Point

0942     Slack

1154     Slack

1548     Max Flood         .74knts

1842     Slack

The surface analysis chart and the sat pic for today provide the reasons for the optimistic outlook for the race. We have a moderate high-pressure (1035MB)  in the Pacific with a weak high (1028MB)in the interior of BC. We also have a very weak low-pressure system (1019MB) off the mouth of the Columbia River that is moving to the SSE. The flow from the BC high to this low is what will provide the northerly flow over our area. The pressure gradient won’t appear to be very strong but we will probably have 15-20 knots for the first beat. This will also provide the first interesting call for tomorrow with the question being will the wind be NE or N in the starting area and how much will it shift to the NNW as we sail north. This will impact how you approach the top mark since this is a reverse start and you will constantly be converging with the fleets that started ahead of you. So you probably don’t want to go all the way to the port tack layline in your approach to the windward mark. Tack low and go up to the starboard tack layline. This will also give your foredeck crew plenty of time to get set up for a nice bear-away spin set at the mark.

Once on the run, at these wind speeds, it will be a numbers game. Sail the fastest, shortest possible course. Since, as the race goes on, the NNW wind will probably continue to fill down from Admiralty Inlet, you will probably want to stay to the right of the rhumbline and defend that side of the course. Just don’t get in too close to Bainbridge. You will also want to watch windspeed as it will drop to the 10-15 knot range as you get south of West Point. So plan your headsail change early. This breeze will remain in that range for the last beat with 10-12 knots from Blakely Rock to West Point and slightly higher from West Point to the finish, 12-15 knots.

After you round Blakely Rock it will be port tack all the way back to Magnolia probably aiming at FourMile Rock. Just remember it can get very shallow anywhere inside of a line from FourMile to the Lighthouse at West Point. Once you in as close as you dare, tack to starboard and hope to be aimed somewhere between the West Point Buoy and the Point.

Sat Pic Today

After you clear West Point you sail about a ¼ mile before you tack back to port and you should be aimed just outside of the entrance to the Ship Canal. Start thinking about your approach to the finish. Hopefully, on the run south, you remembered to look across to the finish with the bino’s to see if the finish line is set and which end is favored. Again, with a reverse start,  you don’t want to get tangled up with a bunch of boats at the finish, so favored end on starboard tack is the safe call.

It will be a quick race so the crystal ball has Zvi around the course in just under 2.5 hours finishing around 1305 hours. Glory should be the next one in at 1312 hours. The J-160 in at 1354. The J-111’s in at 1415 hours. The Sierra 26 in at 1425 hours followed by the J-109’s at 1437 hours, the J-35 in at 1445 hours. And the J-105’s in at 1450 hours.

Apply the sunblock BEFORE you leave the house and dress warmly.

Have a great race.

Don’t forget daffodils for Kelly!

Bruce’s Brief Wx for 25,26,27, and 28 Feb. Breezy in the North Sound, Admiralty Inlet, Eastern Strait of JdF, and San Juan Islands.

Bruce’s Brief Wx for  25,26,27, and 28 Feb. Breezy in the North Sound, Admiralty Inlet, Eastern Strait of JdF, and San Juan Islands.

Plenty of sailboat racing going on this weekend and, with the exception of the South Sound, who got their turn last weekend, there will be breeze. In some places, there will be a lot of wind on Saturday, especially for our friends in Port Townsend and Victoria. In Port Townsend, they’re having the Shipwrights’ Regatta which could be renamed the Shipwrights’ Benefit Regatta as there could be plenty of work for them after Saturday. 

Victoria could see 25-35 knots of SE breeze with higher gusts on Saturday in advance of a frontal system. By about mid-day Sunday a post-frontal vacuum will develop over the Eastern end of the Strait of JdF in sharp contrast to the conditions on Saturday. 

Today’s Surface Analysis Chart and Sat Pic show a weakening high-pressure system inland, with a series of moderate low-pressure systems poised to come into our area. The other feature of note is the 500MB Analysis which shows a shift in the path of the jet stream which will bring an end to our run of very chilly weather. Currently, the jet stream is going up and over the remains of our offshore high-pressure system and then coming ashore in Central California, allowing the cold air from BC to come into our area. As this hump in the jet stream moves east, the flow in the jet stream will remain zonal across the Pacific between 30°and 40°N, however, when the flow turns to the NE it will bring the more moderate temperatures back to our area. Finally!

The Surface Forecast Chart for Saturday shows the next frontal system approaching the coast. As usually happens this time of the year, the front will slow as it approaches the coastal buffer zone. This will keep breezy conditions in place all along the coast for the weekend. The pre-frontal breeze will be strongest in the North Sound (20-25knts), Admiralty Inlet (25-30 knts), Eastern Strait of JdF, San Juan Islands, and Bellingham Bay (25-35 knts w/ higher gusts). The breeze will moderate about mid-day in the Central Sound and this moderation will move slowly north over the day. With frontal passage on Saturday night and into Sunday morning, the wind will become SW on the coast and SW in all of the Sound, Admiralty Inlet, Eastern Strait, and San Juan Islands. By noon, the gradient will begin to ease with the breeze dropping in the Eastern Strait but continuing at 15-20 knots out of the SSW in the Sound and Admiralty Inlet. 

By early evening on Sunday, conditions will return to pre-frontal in advance of the next system coming ashore on Monday, with more moderate temperatures. 

So plenty of fun to be had on the water this weekend, just be well aware of the conditions and make sure boat and crew are properly prepared. 

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 18, 19, 20, and 21 Feb. Should be a GREAT Toliva Shoal Race!

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 18, 19, 20, and 21 Feb. Should be a GREAT Toliva Shoal Race!

This could be one of the nicest Toliva Shoal Races in a long time with the weather, tidal currents, the sun, the moon, and the stars all in alignment. Plus whatever precipitation happens will be light and will only show up mid to late afternoon on Saturday. It will still be a bit on the coolish side but not below freezing but with wind chill, it will be close to it. Have plenty of warm fluids available especially for the folks hiking on what will be a long beat from Toliva back to the finish. My favorite is Chinese Hot and Sour Soup, recipe available on request.

Today’s surface analysis shows a now-familiar pattern of a stronger than normal high-pressure system offshore (1036MB) and a weak trough of low-pressure inland. A cold front will move down from the NW late Saturday and into Sunday however it will be a quick hitter bringing snow to the Cascades and Olympics and some lowland precipitation.

By early Saturday as the front begins its approach, the offshore high will begin to become stronger (1038MB) and rounder indicating more stability. This is what will allow a relatively strong flow of onshore breeze to continue over the area into the coming week.

For the Toliva Shoal Race, this will mean a fairly steady (for the South Sound!) SW breeze of 10 to 20-knots with the usual light spots in the usual places. Tacticians will love this race and the foredeck crews will be busy trying to anticipate the next gybe and/or the next sail change. At this point in the series, you know who the smart teams are and you’ll want to watch them for this race. 

Tides are always interesting in the South Sound especially as you approach the Narrows. This year they will be pretty much with you around the course, AMAZING!

Budd Inlet Entrance

0906     Slack

1042     Max Ebb           .19 knts

1300     Slack

1542     Max Fld            .34 knts

1718     Max Fld            .30 knts*

2012     Slack

* Not an error

Narrows (south end)

1030     Max Ebb           3.13 knts

1342     Slack

1618     Max Fld            3.24 knts

1918     Slack

Have a great race, be safe, and enjoy the weekend.

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 11, 12, 13, and 14. It’s the BIG Seattle Boat Show and a beautiful weekend ahead!

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 11, 12, 13, and 14. It’s the BIG Seattle Boat Show and a beautiful weekend ahead!

Once again, the Pacific NW will be the envy of the country when it comes to weather, not traffic, but definitely weather. We will have an outstanding day tomorrow with temps approaching 60° F and sunshine. Slightly warmer on Sunday but with some cloudiness as the next cold front approaches our area for Monday.

Today would be the perfect day to do the delivery to Olympia for the Toliva Shoal Race with 15-25 knots of N to NE breeze all the way down the Sound. This follows the typical NW pattern of the best day for breeze is the first day the ridge establishes itself over the area with the breeze easing each day following.

The surface analysis chart for today shows an irregularly shaped 1037MB high-pressure system extending from the Salish Sea into southeast BC. There is a nice compression of the isobars just to the north of us which is what is bringing us the strong N-NE breeze today. The chart for tomorrow shows the easing of the isobars which will bring lighter air however it really won’t go dead until late tomorrow night. This will mean ideal conditions of 5-12 knots of northerly for the winter Shaw Island Race, and the races in the central and south Sound.

The most interesting chart for the weekend is the 48hr surface forecast chart which shows the deepest low we have had so far in the North Pacific, at 948MB and surrounded by hurricane force winds. It also shows the weak low-pressure system (1009MB) with attached frontal systems weakening as it approaches our coast and runs into our protective ridge of high pressure. This chart also shows how the pressure gradient is weakening over the area. The feature of interest on this chart is how a high-pressure system (1026-1029MB) is setting up off the central coast of California. This will be a continuation of the pattern we have seen since the start of the year.

This pattern is reinforced by the jet stream maintaining its zonal flow over the western Pacific before it becomes meridional as it approaches our coast. This flow will become more interesting as the surface high-pressure off of California strengthens and becomes rounder in shape. Currently the jet stream is going over the top of the highs over our area and then sending those Alberta Clippers into the central US. By the middle of this coming week the jet stream will be going over the top of this building offshore high and then down into the Pacific NW. This will bring cooler temps into the area but probably not much moisture.

It will be a great mid-February weekend for our area so enjoy the Big Seattle Boat Show which closes tomorrow evening and then spend Sunday on the water.

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 28, 29, 30, 31 Jan. Rain is coming, just not much.

So much for this being a typical La Niña year. We may still be ahead for rain on this date however the long-range trend looks dry and not much more snow in the mountains, at least for the next week. Yes, we do have a frontal system coming in over Saturday night and into Sunday however that will start to ease on Monday with another ridge of high-pressure starting to build over the area.

To get the best feel for this start with today’s surface analysis chart and follow the sequence through 1 Feb. With tomorrow’s surface forecast chart, you can see the strong high (1040MB) inland with SEVEN centers of high-pressure over the western US and eastern Pacific. The offshore high is trending to drift to the north and this will continue to be a block for systems coming across the Pacific. This will be reinforced by the jet stream which will maintain its zonal flow over the Pacific before becoming meridional as it approaches the coast. This will also have the effect of bringing cooler temps into the Pacific NW.

If you’re sailing this weekend expect nice sailing on Saturday with breezy conditions on Sunday especially in Admiralty Inlet and the Straits with post-frontal winds of 25-30 knots. These will ease by late Sunday and into Monday morning.

Enjoy the weekend and especially the picture of the Tonga eruption with the remains of Cyclone Cody off to the SW of the eruption. Love those satellites!

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 21, 22, 23, and 24 Jan.  Third weekend in a row with no rain!

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 21, 22, 23, and 24 Jan.  Third weekend in a row with no rain!

Looks like our high-pressure system is going to keep us dry for the upcoming weekend and well into next week. We are still about 3” of rain above average for this date however we are about 1” behind where we were a year ago.

Lots more activity on the water this weekend and Saturday should be a great day for sailing just about everywhere. There may be some patchy fog in the morning however it won’t last long and with that 1037 MB high-pressure system setting up off the mouth of the Columbia River, low-pressure systems and attached frontal systems will have a very difficult time making it into the Pacific NW.

The best day for sailing will be Saturday even though the models are not in agreement about just how much wind we may have. The most optimistic has 10-12 knots of northerly coming down the Sound from Port Townsend to Tacoma. This will be the result of an elongated high-pressure system with centers starting just north of the north end of Vancouver Island and extending to the SE near north Utah. The problem is that the high at the Utah end of things is at 1042MB so it will tend to decrease wind in the Pac NW. Another model has light and variable wind over the area for the entire day. If the optimistic model prevails, remember that this will tend to be more of a drainage northerly not a more typical northwesterly. This will mean more shifts to the NE especially in the morning in the Central Sound.

On Sunday, as a trough of low pressure sets up along the coast from Neah Bay to the Calif-Mex Border, what pressure gradient there was will ease over the day, keeping winds on the light and variable side until a weak northerly fills down the Sound mid to late afternoon.

January 21

The 500Mb charts continue to show a zonal flow over the western Pacific that becomes meridional as it flows to the north to get around the upper-level high-pressure system that is an extension of the surface high discussed above. This scenario will keep the weather mild over our area and make life interesting but very cold for the Midwest and East Coast. These charts also show a persistent upper-level low just east of Hawaii. This will be interesting to watch as it drifts slowly to the west, splits, and becomes weaker.

Today’s sat pic continues to show that nicely defined upper-level low between California and Hawaii as well as the start of some clearing over our area.

I had some great questions after the Tsunami Warning last weekend and I’ll have a write-up for you this weekend along with some great graphs showing its arrival on the West Coast.

Have a great weekend.

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 14, 15, 16, 17, and 18 Jan. A very mild and dry weekend ahead.

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 14, 15, 16, 17, and 18 Jan. A very mild and dry weekend ahead.

Once again, the Pacific NW will have a relatively nice weekend while the rest of the country is going to get smacked with yet another series of winter storms. While there will be some sailboat racing around the Salish Sea, conditions, for the most part, will be light and variable because of a protective ridge of high pressure that is linked to a strong high-pressure system (1042MB) inland over the Rocky Mountains.

Rainfall has clearly been exceptional, with 6.56” so far this month compared to an average rainfall of 2.49”. What is interesting is that last year on this date we had 7.53” of rain. Two years in a row of La Niña conditions bringing cooler and wetter than normal conditions to our area. The good news is that this protective ridge of high pressure will stay in place over the weekend and it will be Monday before the next rainfall gets here.

Take a look at the satellite pic for today and then compare that with the 500MB (upper level) chart for today. You can see two low-pressure systems in the sat pic while the surface analysis chart shows the major low (978MB) in the Pacific but nothing on the surface off of California, while the 500MB chart shows that the strong low-pressure system is also intruding into the upper atmosphere while the other low-pressure system is strictly aloft.

Enjoy the weekend!

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 7, 8, 9, 10 Jan. Duwamish Head Race

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 7, 8, 9, 10 Jan. Duwamish Head Race

Our winter of wild weather continues and we are not even getting close to the worst of what is happening in the central and eastern US. Not surprisingly, we are ahead for rainfall on this date after a record-setting fall by .75” compared to the average however we are 2.1” behind compared to where we were a year ago. Then there’s the snowfall in the Olympics and Cascades which is way ahead however there is still a lot of winter left and in a La Niña year, we should expect more. The only problem is that we could, like last year, have another week of very warm weather which could quickly take the snowpack down. We will see.

The good news is that while we are having some wild wind in the Straits and Admiralty Inlet today, gale warnings, the conditions for tomorrow’s Duwamish Head Race look almost pleasant. Today’s surface analysis chart and sat pic show the strong frontal system pushing through the area today and the post-frontal clearing which is bringing those gale-force westerlies down the Straits. This gradient will ease late this afternoon and into the early evening. Another weak cold front will push through the area tomorrow bringing south to southwesterly breeze, 8-12 knots, to the central Sound for most of the day. The front will also bring SE breeze of 15-20 knots to the north part of Admiralty and the Eastern end of the Strait of JdF.

The keys for tomorrow’s race will be a clear air downwind start, finding and staying in the breeze while sailing the shortest course up to Alki, staying in the breeze on the reach from Alki to Duwamish, then have the boat set up for the reach from Duwamish to Blakely Rock (barber haulers already rigged), sprit boats with code 0’s will love this leg. Remember the rocks on the north side of Blakely Rock and then stay in the breeze until you can harden up on port tack and then tack to starboard for a long tack back to the finish. The breeze will tend to be from the SSW so starboard will be favored just don’t get too close to the east side of the Sound as the breeze will tend to be lighter. Also, watch the boats astern of you and if you get headed and the boats outside stay lifted, tack immediately and get back out to the SW breeze.

As you get closer to Three Tree Point and after mid-afternoon, the breeze will ease to less than 8-knots and continue to ease as well as back to the south. Finishing before dark would be good.  It is still going to be cold out there so dress appropriately and have plenty of warming fluids available to your crew.

Be safe and have fun.