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Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for May 6, 7, 8, and 9. Sloop Tavern YC Race to the Straits

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs, Racing May 6, 2022May 6, 2022Race to the Straits 0 Comment

Our spring of wacky weather continues with more rain and cooler than normal temps. Then we have the Race to the Straits sailing in three distinct zones of weather: Central Sound, Admiralty Inlet, and the Eastern end of the Straits. Each offers its own particular (peculiar) set of challenges. What could possibly go wrong?

Since, once again, the models are not in agreement with when and where the wind will come from except for the Eastern Straits, more on that later. The tidal current models are, however, constant.

Bush Point Tidal Currents

7 May

0724 Max Flood 1.05 knots

1000 Slack

1318 Max Ebb 1.98 knots

1612 Slack

1918 Max Flood 2.13 knots

8 May

0600 Slack

0836 Max Flood 1.05 knots

1106 Slack

1418 Max Ebb 1.70 knots

1706 Slack

2012 Max Flood 2.02 knots

Today’s surface analysis chart shows a very weak high-pressure system over the Salish Sea and an approaching weak and fast-moving low-pressure system with an attached cold front. Our Pacific High is set up just north of Hawaii and south of a “normal” position. While the High is rounding up which would normally indicate some stability in the High, it is also still on the weak side at 1030MB.

After the front moves through, a strong onshore flow will bring NW breeze down the coast, down the Straits, and through the Chehalis Gap. The flow through the Gap will keep the breeze out of the SSW in the Central and South Sound until midday Saturday. Then, as the flow develops down the Strait, expect breezy conditions in the Eastern Straits to push down Admiralty inlet and into the Central Sound starting about midday. The breeze from Fowlweather Bluff(FWB) to the south end of Marrowstone will tend to be from the NNW at 10-20 knots with the breeze backing to the WNW and building into the 15-25 knots range the closer you get to the Marrowstone Light. This breeze will hold into mid-evening.

Since this is a short-handed event if you’re sailing with conventional headsails and if you will have to do a sail change, think about hoisting the big sail to start the beat from Pt. No Pt. in the port groove. You’ll want to hold starboard tack from FWB to Marrowstone and do your sail change while on starboard, tacking to port near Marrowstone. Even though the tide will be ebbing you will want to be near the Marrowstone shore since the water will be smoother and you will position yourself to be on the inside of the coming lift as you go up the island.

After rounding Marrowstone Light, hold port tack until you can tack and be aimed at the south end of Port Townsend. This will get you into the smoother water east of town so you can do a port tack approach to the finish and avoid sailing in the mix-master of the main channel of Admiralty Inlet. Do remember that with the strong westerly, the flood will start sooner than the forecast of 1600 hrs and that will help to flatten the seas.

Sunday will be a completely different story as the area prepares for the next low-pressure system and front which will pass quickly to the south of the Salish Sea. Once it does pass, the onshore flow will once again come down the Straits however that probably won’t happen until late Sunday afternoon or early evening. This probably means light and variable winds for the racecourse and with the slack at 1100 hours, you’ll be fighting the ebb until almost 1700 hours. Getting to the FWB buoy could be challenging.

The good news in all of this? Sunday won’t be as wet as Saturday.

Note also the 500MB Charts as the Jet Stream continues to come in well south of the Pacific NW. This will continue to keep us wet and cool through the coming week. The 8 and 10 May Charts are particularly interesting with the development of an upper-level, cut-off low-pressure system just to the north and west of Hawaii. With nothing to push it around, it should be fun to watch especially if you have a trip to Hawaii planned. In the past, if these systems drift south to the islands, they have brought record rainfall to Kauai(44” in 24 hours)and 100+mph winds to the top of the Big Island.

Be safe, and have a great weekend.

Class 40

Kurt Hoehne Adventure Sailing, PNW sailors around the world May 3, 2022May 3, 2022Class 40, Craig Horsfield 0 Comment

My old skipper and 2-time Mini Transat finisher Craig Horsfield is at it again, this time in next year’s Class 40 The Race Around. Yes, a doublehanded around the world race. He’s teaming with other experienced sailors to make this happen as a Corinthian effort. There are lots more photos on Craig’s Facebook site. We’ll be following this closely and posting here.

Horsfield has shared this video. Check the shape of his new ride!

Fast 40

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for Apr 29 & 30, May1-3. Smith Island and Double Bluff Race

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs April 29, 2022April 29, 2022Smith Island Race 0 Comment

Our weird and wonderful weather continues even as NOAA forecasts a third straight year of La Niña, so cooler and wetter than normal. Let’s hope, as the rest of the country will not be so lucky this summer. On to sailboat racing this weekend!

Just as the NWS divides the Salish into different areas; Puget Sound, Admiralty Inlet, Eastern Strait of JdF, etc etc, it turns out there’s a very good reason for this and we will all be witnesses to these divisions this weekend. The models do not agree on what we’ll have and that is because it’s springtime in Putrid Sound.

Unfortunately, what we can agree on is tidal currents so let’s look at Admiralty Inlet, Bush Point.

Tidal Currents

0824 Max Ebb 2.85 knts

1124 Slack

1500 Max Flood 3.41 knts

1824 Slack

2100 Max Ebb 1.75 knts

2330 Slack

Sunday

0254 Max Flood 2.36 knts

0530 Slack

0854 Max Ebb 3.89 knts

The bad news is that the time of the strongest tide in Admiralty (!500hrs, 3.41 knts) will roughly coincide with the time of the least amount of wind. When was the last time you practiced anchoring?

The surface analysis charts and sat pic provide a great overview of the dilemma headed our way. We have a very weak frontal system attached to a very weak low-pressure system just off the coast that will move through the area late tonight and into early Saturday. This will bring a strong SE pre-frontal breeze to the coast and the Eastern end of the Strait of JdF. There just won’t be much in the inland waters. One of the problems is that the weak low will remain stalled off of Cape Flattery keeping a SE breeze in the Strait and a weak onshore flow through the Chehalis Gap which will keep the southerly light in the Sound.

As the front begins to dissipate over the Sound around 0900 hours (start time) the breeze will also begin to drop from 5-8 in the area from Shilshole to PNP. The breeze will not be consistent in strength with Puget Sound potentially looking a little like swiss cheese. By about midday, the breeze will become light and variable over the racecourse. If you’re on the long course, and you can get around Pt No Pt and Foulweather Bluff before the tide starts cranking against you, you will probably want to aim for the bottom end of Marrowstone, where you can work the beach and be in position for the westerly which will eventually come down the Strait.

If you’re on the Short Course, you will probably work the back eddy below Pt No Pt and then do your best to get across the Sound to Useless Bay so you can work that back eddy up to Double Bluff. It’s also easier to anchor in Useless Bay.

By 1700 there should be a NW breeze of 5-10 from Pt No Pt(PNP) to Smith Island and this should hold through the evening hours until around midnight. From PNP south to Shilshole NW of 10-15 holding until about 2100 hours when the ENE of 5-8 knots will hold through the early morning hours before it drops to less than 5 knots.

This race will drive tacticians and trimmers crazy. The very hazy crystal ball has ZVI around the course finishing at 0615 hours Sunday. On the short course, I have the Legendary Boomerang finishing at 0145 hours Sunday.

Temps won’t be bone-chilling but it will be wet Saturday morning. Sunday will be a much nicer day, just perfect for drying out sails and the boat.

Be safe and have a great race.

While some may be practicing anchoring, our intrepid weather prognosticator shall be sitting here.

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 22, 23, 24, and 25 April. Not so happy Earth Day.

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs April 22, 2022April 22, 2022 5 Comments

Looks like it could be a nice weekend to be on the water, not so much wind but not any rain until Sunday evening. High temps will be in the 60s both days. Both days will start cloudy but burning off to mixed sun and clouds. Use that sunblock!

So far this month we are only .5 inches of rain behind for the month which isn’t huge plus we are still 1.5” ahead of the average for today and about .5” ahead of last year which was really wet. The other good news is that we are at or above 100% of snowpack in the Cascades, which is similar to last year until we got that early blast of heat which really knocked the snowpack down in a hurry. It could still happen this year but at least the long-range predictions for the Salish Sea are showing average temps and below average precip for May, June, and July.

The rest of the west is not so lucky, especially our neighbors to the south. See the Drought Monitor Map for today. You have to wonder how far off Zero Water day is for Oregon, California, Nevada, Arizona, and New Mexico. The other area of concern is the drought in wine country in Washington, now that’s a problem! At least the ocean is staying cool off our coast and that will help the salmon recovery efforts.

Today’s surface analysis map has a very weak (1028MB) Pacific High setting up at 32N and 145W which is way south but at about the right longitude. After the unsettled weather yesterday, we now have a weak ridge of high pressure trying to build over the area with another low-pressure setting up in the Gulf of Alaska. We also have a trough of low-pressure running south from the Salish Sea and then offshore before it curves back inland at San Francisco.

Tomorrow a weak lobe of high pressure will build over the area as another frontal system approaches from the west. This will keep winds light over the area and this will extend into Sunday as the front will stall as it approaches the coast.

The sat pic for today and 500MB Analysis offer a great visual presentation of why things will be fairly quiet on the inland waters. The jet stream remains very far to the south coming ashore at the CA-MEX border. Over the weekend the jet stream will drift to the north coming ashore between northern California and central Oregon. Until it moves north of us, temps will remain a little cool which is all good for the snowpack and the fire season.

Have a great weekend!

2022 Southern Straits Race – Post Race Report from a Long Course Perspective

Peter Salusbury Racing April 21, 2022April 21, 2022Southern Straits Race 0 Comment

By Peter Salusbury – Skipper of Longboard

After a three-year pandemic hiatus, it was a therapeutic reunion for those intrepid Pacific NW sailors who participated in the Southern Straits Race hosted by West Vancouver Yacht Club on Easter weekend. Bruce Hedrick’s “good news, bad news, very good news” pre-race weather briefing proved to be largely accurate though the fleet generally finished much earlier than the models predicted the night before the race.

On the long course, we started in a very light NE, steady rain, and scary ebb tide so the fleet started up-current very conservatively with Jim Innes skippering Red Sheila crossing the line first. As we made our way out of English Bay the wind shifted around to the SE and built nicely to 15 knots as we passed Bowen Island before building even further to over 20 knots as the leaders on the long course planed to Sister’s Island. Westerly, Blue, and The Shadow all rounded Sisters fairly close together with Longboard not far behind. At this point in the wind cycle, the wind shifted to the SW allowing a direct starboard upwind tack down the strait to Ballenas Island.

Photos courtesy of Graeme Clendenan and Doug Wardrop.

The wind glassed off for a few hours before rebuilding south of Ballenas to a light Qualicum which allowed us to slide down past the Winchelseas before the wind veered further to the west and increased as we crossed Nanaimo harbor. The wind stayed in the W most of the way from Entrance to Halibut Bank and built to over 10 knots before we headed upwind to Ballenas Island. The nighttime sail was gorgeous – dry, clear, with a big full moon all night – it was a tad chilly but comfortable in our best warm weather gear.

After Ballenas Island the W wind stayed up in the 15 knot range all the way down the Vancouver Island shore allowing a lovely downwind slide before we gybed north of Nanaimo for the long port tack gybe to the finish line. Up front the lead boats of Westerly, Shadow, and Blue were duking it out in the shifty conditions between the westerly and outflow winds off Bowen Island with Westerly skippered by Stuart Dahlgren breaking free to take the elapsed time win at 0612 hrs Saturday morning – a very fast race given the course was a relatively long 145 nm.

The provisional results at the time this report was written on the Long Course featured the Riptide 35-2 Longboard in first, followed closely by the always well-sailed J/111 65 Red Roses skippered by Alex Smyth with tactics by the Race Chairman, Graeme Clendenan. Michael Shoendorf’s very fast Riptide 41 Blue rounded out the podium and showed amazing flashes of speed throughout the race, often going toe-to-toe with the TP52 and SC70.

On the Medium Course, race veteran Colin Nichols skippering Jackrabbit was the line honors winner but another one of those pesky J/111’s Raku took the overall win – kudos to them as Christina and Justin Wolfe were sailing doublehanded – very impressive! Raku also took the Division 2 win with Jim Johannessen’s Intuition taking Division 3 and Vern Lhotzky on Invictus winning Division 4.

The short course line honors, Division 5 and overall win went to Bill Kitchen’s Terna – amazing to see an almost 50 year old C&C 39 still ripping up the race course. Kerry Phillips skippered Incisor to an impressive second place finish across the line and in Division 5 – a perennially strong performer in this race. Another almost 50-year-old C&C 27 Silik skippered by Wade Harrogate took the Division 6 win.

And finally, the Inshore Race Division 7 winner was PCH skippered by Philip Harland with the impressive WVYC teen age sensation, Andre Deseau, skippering a J/22 to the Division 8 win – well done Andre!

A huge shout-out to Race Chairman, Graeme Clendenan, and Race PRO, Jennifer Ross who along with the usually brilliant organizing committee and an army of volunteers and club staff resurrected Straits Race after a 3 year hiatus and made it such a successful event. They cleverly used ‘hybrid’ Tech Talks, Weather Briefing, and Skippers Meetings using a mix of Zoom and in-person facilities to make the event safe and comfortable for the participants.

Lastly, thank to all our American and Vancouver Island friends who made the trek to West Vancouver and back and who really make this race special. Many of you endured difficult deliveries in colder conditions than we usually get in mid-April. Thanks for your commitment to the race – hope to see you back again next year.

Ed. Note: Results here: wvyc.ca/on-the-water/racing/southern-straits. Scroll down and choose which course/class you want to view. Congrats to Peter Salusbury on his Division 1 victory and thanks to him for this report.

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 15,16,17,18,and 19 Apr.

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs April 15, 2022April 15, 2022Southern Straits Race 0 Comment

Another wild week of weather in the Pacific NW and the Southern Straits Race is off to a great start with a 20-knots of easterly wind for a downwind ride to first marks. Plus, Environment Canada has issued a Waterspout Warning for the Strait Of Georgia. I guess that when you’ve had rain, snow, hail, sunshine, and freezing temps you might as well add a waterspout into the overall equation!

There are a multiplicity of reasons for all this cool unstable weather, just take a look at today’s surface analysis chart, sat pic, and 500MB chart. We’ve had a weak surface low-pressure system over the area this entire week with a stalled occluded front just to the north and slightly to the east as well as cold upper air low-pressure system centered just north of Vancouver Island. The jet stream is primarily zonal and coming ashore between San Fran and LA. Today’s sat pic shows the cool, unstable air off our coast and the next frontal system that will arrive Sunday evening. This pattern will continue to bring upper-level lows into the area this coming week, keep temps on the cool side, and the weather challenging.

For sailing on the Sound this weekend this instability will create interesting conditions. In the morning, the central and south Sound can expect light conditions, while Admiralty inlet and the north Sound will see 10-15 knots of north-northwesterly. The Strait of JdF will have variable wind of 5-15 knots. Onshore flow will develop through the Chehalis Gap by early afternoon and this will create a building S/SW breeze over the south Sound that will gradually make it to the central Sound by mid-afternoon. The interesting part will be that just after the flow develops in the Chehalis Gap it will also start to come down the Strait of JdF and will have to meet somewhere between Alki and Edmonds.

Sunday will be even more interesting as the wind in the Straits will be a pre-frontal SE of 15-20 knots while the wind in the central and South Sound will light and variable for most of the day.

Wherever you’re sailing, have a great weekend!

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 8, 9, 10, 11, and 12 Apr. Sloop Tavern Blakely Rock and South Straits Preview.

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs April 8, 2022April 8, 2022 0 Comment

As if conditions haven’t been crazy enough around here this week, get ready for tomorrow. After a beautiful and warm day yesterday, we had a cold front move through early this morning dropping the temp and some rain. We now have a strong onshore flow coming down the Strait of JdF with an equally strong onshore flow coming into the south Sound through the Chehalis Gap. 33 Knots of westerly at Race Rocks, 26 knots at Dungeness, and 22 knots of WSW at Smith Island. 15-20 knots of WSW from Olympia to Des Moines, 18 knots of southerly at Alki, and 27 knots of SW at West Point and Paine Field. As usual, it has to meet somewhere and thus we have a set-up for the classic Puget Sound Convergence Zone.

Today’s surface chart and satpPic show the front having gone through and the cool, unstable air behind the front moving into the area. This will mean very cool temps overnight with wind chills in the low to mid-30s for tomorrow with the chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms in the CZ and near the Cascade foothills.

The surface analysis chart for today has a reasonably strong Pacific High at 1038MB off the coast of SF. This will strengthen tomorrow to 1041MB and drift slightly to the north and the west. This will reduce the pressure gradient over the Pacific Northwest as the isobars spread out over the day tomorrow. The real challenge will be for the Race Committee as the models have the Convergence Zone just slightly north of Shilshole. It’s entirely possible there could be a southerly for the early starters and a northerly for the later starters with some very light conditions in between those starts.

After that, the wind could come in from the NE and fill in at 20-knots from the north before it drops back to 5-10 and becomes light and variable. Big fun. Tacticians and trimmers are going to have a very busy day, which will be good because it will keep them from getting too cold.

South Straits Preview: It’s a week out and I’m only comfortable with forecasts out 72 to 96 hours but three models will go out to 15 April. They are reasonably consistent in that it looks like you won’t have to worry about too much wind. The most wind seems to be 10-15 knots Friday night from the WNW. Before and after that expect wind in the 3-5 knot range. Lighten the boat as much as possible just remember it will also be quite cool so dress appropriately.

Don’t shoot the messenger.

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 25, 26, 27, and 28 Mar. A typical Spring Weekend!

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs March 25, 2022March 25, 2022 0 Comment

Today’s surface analysis chart, sat pic, and Langley Doppler radar all combine to show a weakening cold front approaching the coast and moving into the Salish Sea. As it passes over the Pacific NW it will continue to weaken and then stall before it moves slowly off to the NE Saturday night and into Sunday morning.

As this system evaporates over the area we’ll be left with scattered showers and the pressure gradient will decrease over the entire area. This will mean very light air over the central and south Sound. The north Sound, Admiralty Inlet, and the eastern end of the Strait of JdF will have a light SE breeze of 5-15 knots until about mid-afternoon when that will evaporate as well.

Sunday will be very much the same as there will be no appreciable pressure gradient over the area.

Enjoy the weekend!

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 18, 19, 20, and 21 March. CYC Scatchet Head Race

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs March 18, 2022March 18, 2022Center Sound Series, Scatchet Head Race 0 Comment

With CYC’s Scatchet Head course being up to the race committee, this is bound to be interesting. From two out of the three models, there will be more consistent wind on a North Course, so that is the one we’ll use.

Today’s surface analysis and sat pic give a nice representation of what’s coming towards us for tomorrow. A well-defined cold front, with cool, unstable, air behind the front and plenty of cold rain. After the front passes, which should be near dawn, onshore flow will develop down the Strait of JdF with the possibility of SCA or gale warnings in the eastern Strait. As the flow offshore changes from NW to W flow will develop through the Chehalis Gap late in the afternoon on Saturday. This is what will make things interesting on the North Course, as the pressure gradient will ease and conditions will go light in the central Sound.

It will be the speed of the front that will be interesting to watch since that will determine how much wind we have after about mid-afternoon. Before that, the North Sound will have more consistently more N-NE breeze(12-20 knots) while the South Sound, (south of Alki) will have a light(4-8 knots), of drainage easterly.

Presuming a north course, you’ll start in a NNE-NE breeze of 10-12 knots on starboard and if you don’t have a lane of clear air you’ll need to take a short clearing tack and then get back on to starboard as that will be the favored tack up the Sound until about the line from Edmonds to Kingston. You’ll be sailing in an ebb tide which will be consistently stronger to the west of the rhumb line. As you get closer to the north part of the course, the breeze should build to 15-18 knots and back to the N-NNW. At which point you’ll tack and be aimed roughly at Scatchet Head. Even if you’re low of the mark the breeze should continue to back, lifting you to the mark. The ebb will also be setting you to the mark which is fine just watch your set as you get closer to the mark because the breeze will tend to ease the closer you get to the mark while the ebb will build slightly.

For the run back to the finish it will pretty much be a reverse of the course you sailed up to the mark with more breeze from N-NW until you get back to near Kingston where you’ll be lifted so you can gybe to port and be aimed at the finish. The key will be to finish before about mid-afternoon when the breeze will start to clock back to the east and begin to ease.

Tidal Currents

Scatchet Head

1012 Max Ebb 1.3 knots

1324 Slack

1620 Max Flood 1.0 knot

Edmonds

1018 Max Ebb .44 knots

1300 Slack

1612 Max Flood .66 knots

So what does the crystal ball show for tomorrow? Zvi first around and finishing at 1315 hrs, Glory next at 1323hrs, Jam in at 1414hrs. the J-111’s finishing at 1435, the Sierra 26 in at 1455, the C&C 115 in at 1507, the J-109’s at 1509, the J-35’s in at 1517, and the J-105’s in around 1522.

We are still ahead of rain for the year even compared with last year and with another front coming in late Sunday or early Monday. This will add a little more snow to the mountains which is good. The other good news is that by the end of next week the jet stream will become meridional and move more to the north which will bring in some slightly warmer temperatures.

Have a great race, stay warm, stay dry, and stay safe.

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 11,12,13, and 14 March. A wet and windy weekend ahead.

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs March 11, 2022March 11, 2022 0 Comment

You had to love last weekend with beautiful weather and great, steady breeze. It is, however, still winter in the Pacific NW (and the rest of the country) so don’t get used to it. While the Central, Southeast, and NE US will get slammed again this weekend we are just going to get a bit of a quick hitter bringing some breeze and some rain. The jet stream will remain zonal over the Pacific but turing to a more SW to NE flow as it approaches the coast which will bring some warming however that will be very temporary as the jet stream will return to zonal flow by Monday with the stream well south of the Pac NW.

Today’s surface analysis chart shows a relatively benign picture with a weak high-pressure system(1028MB) over us and the remains of the stronger offshore high (1029MB) having moved south to being off the CA-MX Border. The mid-Pacific is a mishmash of low-pressure systems which, with their attached frontal systems, will begin marching into the Pacific NW this weekend and continuing into the coming week bringing a mix of rain and the occasional breeze. Not catastrophic amounts of either except maybe along the coast, but to be watched while over the Inland Waters.

These will be quick-hitting systems and as is the nature of these, how much wind you have for how long will depend upon where you are in the Salish Sea. Starting tomorrow morning winds will be light in the south and central Sound however Admiralty Inlet and the very eastern end of the Strait of JdF will have a pre-frontal SE in the 15-25 knot range. This will hold until midday to early afternoon when a post-frontal SW breeze will start coming through the Chehalis Gap and into the south Sound. By mid-afternoon, the post-frontal S-SW breeze will be in the 15-25 knot range from Tacoma to Edmonds with a stronger breeze north of Edmonds, very much like what can happen on the Scatchet Head Race. By early evening this breeze will ease over the Sound while remaining SE 15-30 knots in the eastern Straits.

By midnight Saturday the breeze will return to the central and north Sound, and Admiralty Inlet. Since it’s a quick-hitter, the breeze will ease in the early morning hours with some areas of 5-15 knot SE. Near midday Sunday the south Sound will be very light with 5-10 knots of S-SW over the rest of the area. Around mid-afternoon, there will be more breeze like 10-20 knots of S-SW from Tacoma to the eastern Strait of JdF.

As far as rain goes, it looks like it will hold off until late Saturday afternoon or early evening. Steady rain until midday Sunday with another front arriving very late Sunday or early Monday. Rain, break, rain, repeat into next week.

Be safe, enjoy the weekend.

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