Weather

It’s the Ides of May which really has nothing to do with anything except we now only have only 16 days until the start of hurricane season and yet we do have the chance of the first named storm of the season developing this weekend between Florida and Cuba. Plus a fairly gnarly typhoon slammed into the Philippines this week as if they didn’t have enough problems already. (Ed. Note: Bruce’s “Ides” sent me to an online investigation, and after extracting myself from the Roman calendar and the Roman gods, I am getting back to posting the weather….)

Luckily for the Pacific NW, we are going to have a lovely day today followed by a moist but not a super-soaker weekend. Just enough to keep the lawn and freshly planted flowers happy. The surface chart today and the high-resolution satellite pic show the weak high-pressure system over us and extending down the coast. The sat pic also clearly shows a very well-defined low-pressure system with the attached cold front that will be with us starting tonight and extending into Saturday. By Sunday this system will be to the east of us with a weak trough of low pressure just off the coast.

Most of the breeze this weekend will be off the coast on Saturday with 20-25-knot pre-frontal southeasterly. The eastern end of the Straits of JdF will have 15-20-knot east-southeasterly most of the day Saturday however with frontal passage this will ease around midnight on Saturday. By Sunday this will become a weak onshore flow down the Straits which will slowly build over the day to maybe 15-20 knots in the eastern Straits by late Sunday afternoon. The rest of the waters will see mostly light wind for the weekend.

And then next weekend we’ll have our usual update for Swiftsure even if the race isn’t going to happen. We’ll also have post-Swiftsure virtual reports about how boats did on the race all done from the comfort of your office chair. Feel free to submit your report. 

Enjoy a little quarantine time down on the boat to check mooring lines and fenders and as we saw last weekend, it’s ok to take the boat out and get some time on the water. 

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)

For those of you who are racing tomorrow, especially at Royal Vic and Bellingham, dress warmly, life jackets and safety harnesses for sure, and if you’re not comfortable with the conditions, don’t go! It looks like the Islands Race will have a nice breeze for the entire day with maybe as much as 20-knots, while Bellingham and Victoria could see 30-40 knots of northeasterly with gusts near 50! WOW! That’s a lot of wind.

Now (1600 hrs) up at the eastern end of the Straits of JdF we have a west-southwesterly breeze of 6 knots, which still gives a wind chill of 30-degrees, and the barometer is still falling. We can see snow up on the hills above Port Angeles and Sequim so the cold air is here but it is rain mixed with snow at sea level.

As you can see from the charts, we have a stationary frontal system that is slowly moving to the east. With the barometer still falling along the coast and here on the south side of the Straits this will keep the strong winds and very cold temperatures up north. It’s already 31 from the NE at Race Rocks so it’s coming.

So why will this northeasterly be so strong?  Just look at the high-pressure system in the NE part of BC, it was at an ear-popping 1056mb this morning and it’s only going to weaken very slightly over the weekend. So with a pressure gradient difference of about 50mb, we are looking at some serious wind coming down the Fraser River Valley, blowing across the San Juan Islands and Bellingham, and then across the Straits of JdF. From there the breeze will be topographically forced down Admiralty Inlet and then down the Sound, slowly easing as it encounters landmasses.

This will mean a nice northerly in Colvos Passage that should last the entire day. In other words, a hard beat up the passage, hiking like crazy followed by a quick run back the finish and then into the Tides for well deserved hot-buttered rums, while maintaining that critical 6-foot social distance. You’ll get lots of tacking and gybing practice so that should help keep you warm. 😊

Have a safe sail, and a great time.                   

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)

What a difference a couple of weeks can make. Our snowpack for both the Cascades and Olympics is right around 90% of normal and we are .75 inches of rain ahead for the year. Now we’ll see if this moist pattern holds up through the rest of the winter. Right now it certainly looks like a very wet pattern for at least the next week.  If I had to pick a day this weekend to go to the In-The-Water-Show it would be Saturday. Sunday is looking wet and breezy so the brokers will love that as only the serious buyers come out in that stuff! Remember to always check the Doppler Radar on the NWS Seattle website so you can see when the next rain will be getting to us.

The surface charts tell the story with one low-pressure system after another headed directly into the Pacific NW.  The 48hr surface forecast chart shows an impressive 11 low-pressure systems in the Roser North Pacific LPS index, a seasonal high in terms of total lows.  More importantly, the 500mb charts show an almost straight zonal flow across the Pacific. This will mean that the systems are fast-moving and that is confirmed by the length of the red arrows coming off the center of the lows, many of those show the center of the low covering 600 miles in 24 hours. Impressive.

Enjoy the weekend. I’ll be working at the Seattle Boat Show Information Booth on the main floor at the Clink, today and tomorrow so if you’re down there, stop by and say hello. I will also be teaching the all-day weather class at the Boat Show University on Wednesday and a one-hour free weather seminar on Thursday.

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)

So in the span of just one week, we went from over 7-inches behind in total rainfall to finish out the year only 3.64-inches behind, pretty amazing but oh so typical for the Pacific NW. Now here it is only the 3^rd of January and we are already .33 inches behind for the year. Looking at the Surface charts for the next five days we will probably be pretty close to average by next weekend. Just in time for the Duwamish Head race out of Des Moines.

Today’s surface analysis shows a moderate series of low-pressure systems off the coast with a series of attached cold fronts that will start moving through the area tonight bringing strong southerly breezes to the coast, Admiralty Inlet, the eastern end of the Strait of JdF, and the San Juan Islands. After frontal passage, we can expect a strong onshore flow down the Straits as well as through the Chehalis Gap and up the Sound with wind speeds in the 20 to 30-knot range along with substantial rain. 

The zonal flow of the jet stream will keep a steady supply of low-pressure systems with attached fronts coming into the Pacific Northwest into the foreseeable future. This will be aided by the development of an unseasonably strong high-pressure (1040MB) off the coast of California. Then by the 6^th and 7^th of January, you can see the development of a very strong low-pressure system (956MB) in the mid-Pacific which will make its presence felt here by next weekend. Maybe even bringing wind for an epic Duwamish Head Race that will go all the way around the course!  

As we get closer to next weekend if it starts to look challenging for getting the boat from Seattle down to Des Moines for the Duwamish Head Race I’ll provide you with a brief update on Wednesday. As usual, in strong southerlies, the most challenging part maybe just getting in and out of the Des Moines Marina.

Have a great weekend and be sure to check conditions before you head out!                                                                                           

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)

Ed. Note: We all owe Bruce a hearty thanks for all his Briefs this year. He loves sailing, and he loves safe sailing and preparing mariners. Here here to Bruce. Don’t forget, if you want some expert, professional routing for your big cruise or race, give him a shout.

The rain this last week certainly helped ease our deficit taking us from over seven inches behind to now only about three inches behind for the year plus there is snow in the mountains and there will be more.

As we discussed last week, another system slammed into Southern California closing the Grapevine on I-5 for almost 24-hours because of snow and this won’t be the last time this winter.

For our area, we will continue to have a mix of conditions that will do nothing but reinforce our designation as the gloomiest area in the US. We will have some wind in some areas tonight and into tomorrow however that will decrease as this next front gets stalled by the coastal buffer zone, weakening it and breaking it apart before the next series of fronts arrive later in the weekend.

By tomorrow we’ll have another weak ridge of high-pressure building east of the Cascades which will give us some offshore flow over the Salish Sea. Then, as the next front approaches on Sunday morning, this offshore flow will become a pre-frontal SE with stronger breeze in Admiralty Inlet. The breeze will then become light and remain light over the rest of the area for the later part of Sunday.

The 48-hour surface forecast chart for the 29^th of Dec shows the strongest low-pressure system of the year(951MB) in mid-Pacific with a very impressive attached frontal system that will eventually impact Southern California yet again as the jet stream will drag it that direction. The other interesting feature of note is just how far south the ice-accretion line will come as to almost 50°N. This will be good news for those of us watching the warm water blob off the West Coast continue to diminish.

As you compare the 28 October Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly chart with the 27 Dec SST Chart, cold water is definitely reappearing off of the West Coast however there is still a large area of above-normal water temperature in the Gulf of Alaska. As this next series of storms come out of Siberia this should help cool this area.

In the meanwhile, have a great New Year and get ready for the Big Seattle Boat Show. Other Events of note:

Jan 18^th & 19^th The Vic-Maui Offshore Weather and Routing Seminar at the Royal Vancouver Yacht Club at Jericho Clubhouse, price includes lunch.

January 29^th Full day Weather Seminar at the Boat Show University at the Big Seattle Boat Show.

January 30^th, Big Seattle Boat Show 1700 hours, Stage #2 The North Hall, a free one-hour introduction to Marine Weather in the Pacific Northwest.

Have a good one!

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)