This actually looks somewhat promising for those sailing out of Victoria this weekend. The problem is that conditions are still somewhat unstable and there will be a transition zone that will make things interesting. Temperatures will be cooler than normal and there will be some rain around. The known factor will be the tides in Race Passage and if the wind is lighter than currently forecast, it will mean fighting the big flood of the day after about 1130.
The surface analysis shows that we have a very weak Pacific High well south of where it normally should be. We also have two weak low-pressure systems, one to the north of us and another fast-moving one in the Pacific which will come ashore near the Columbia River Saturday. This is what will cause an easterly to persist in the Straits giving us a downwind start. The models show this holding until late afternoon with the faster boats getting out to the westerly around Clallam Bay and getting out to Neah Bay by early evening. Then a westerly will build to 15-20 knots for a spinnaker run all the way back to the finish. More importantly, getting back through Race Passage before the big ebb of the day really gets rolling.
All of this is predicated on getting away from the starting area and past Race Passage before the flood gets rolling. If the big boats get out and away, there could be course records set. Navigators will be busy with a two-way run keeping the boat on the shortest possible course. Zvi could finish the long course by 0100hrs Sunday morning. The TP-52’s could be in by midnight on the Hein Bank Race.
Let’s keep our fingers crossed. Have a great race and be safe.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
What another week it has been for weather in the Pacific NW. This weekend will however be the nicest weekend we’ve had in the month of May. Let’s hope it’s just a practice run for Memorial Day weekend unless you were hoping for breeze. Rainwise we are still about 2” ahead for the month and 3.5” ahead for the year. There does not appear to be much ahead for the upcoming week, just a slight possibility of a drizzle on Wednesday.
After that very active front came through earlier this week we now have high-pressure (1032MB) building over Pacific NW and the NE Pacific ocean roughly centered off the central Oregon coast at 135W. There is also a weak low-pressure system (1008MB) at 40N and 150W that is moving quickly (32.5 mph) in a due north direction. This high is not very strong or round in shape so it can be pushed around however check out the wild oscillation in the Jet Stream on the 500MB charts. It’s not going to have much effect on this high. By 22 May the high will have drifted to the south and weakened to 1029 MB, leaving little pressure gradient over the Salish Sea. This will allow temps to warm into the 60s and we should have a beautiful weekend just not much wind.
So what does Swiftsure look like from a week out? It would have been very interesting if we would have the conditions we had on Wednesday for the start of Swiftsure with 50+ knots of westerly at Race Rocks at 1000hrs. I think a lot of boats may have opted out of those punishing conditions. It appears that this weak high-pressure system will drift to the NW and re-center itself at roughly 34N and 145W with a weak lobe over the Pacific NW. This will mean a very weak pressure gradient over the area. The other problem will be the tides with the big flood of the day at Race Passage starting at 1040 and if you haven’t made it past the Race you will face a flood tide building to 5 knots at 1330 hrs. Just one of the many reasons we still go up to Victoria for this race.
Kurt grew up racing and cruising in the Midwest, and has raced Lasers since the late 1970s. Currently he is a broker at Swiftsure Yachts. He has been Assistant Editor at Sailing Magazine and a short stint as Editor of Northwest Yachting. Through Meadow Point Publishing he handles various marketing duties for smaller local companies. He currently is partners on a C&C 36 which he cruises throughout the Northwest. He’s married to the amazing Abby and is father to Ian and Gabe.
Strange as it may seem, our weather is the envy of the country. For the most part, we in Western Washington have water in our reservoirs and a snowpack at or above 100%. Temps are below normal which is good to maintain the snowpack but tough on the home gardeners. As of today, we’ve had 2.26” of rain so far in May. The monthly average for this date is .8” and for the year the average is 17.69” while we’ve had 20.67” so far.
Today’s surface analysis chart and sat pic show that we are nowhere near done with rain for this month with yesterday’s low just over the Cascades and three more very weak low-pressure systems lined up off the coast. The next system will arrive tonight and into Saturday morning. The third system will come through on Sunday following a very similar path.
The 500MB charts show that finally, the jet stream is starting to move to the north which will bring the high temps for Saturday and Sunday into at least the low 60s, finally.
Plenty of sailing going on this weekend with the Pacific NW Offshore Race that finally got started out of Ilwaco this morning after the Organizers wisely decided to not start yesterday morning with winds at the mouth of the Columbia River in the 30-40 knot range with higher gusts. Today’s start was much milder with the fleet now under spinnaker in 12-18 knots of SSW wind. Should be a nice ride up the coast with a nice run down the Straits to finish in Port Angeles.
We will have Vashon Island Race tomorrow which should actually be pretty nice, with a post-frontal south/southwesterly wind of 8-18 knots around most of the day. Currents won’t be much of an issue with the top speed at West Point being only .8 knots of flood just after 1300 hours.
On the long course expect a beat in 8-12 knots of southerly and south of the north end of Vashon the breeze will start to clock to the SW. The short course boats will go to a temporary mark just NW of Pt Robinson and will have similar conditions. The key will be to not go too far to the west north of Pt. Robinson so you end up overstanding the mark and end up reaching in on starboard tack.
On the long course after Pt. Robinson expect the breeze to be a solid W/SW. Don’t get too close to Maury Island as while there may be a nice starboard tack lift in close to the beach it will also be lighter in there. At the bottom end of Vashon remember that the current pretty much flows west to east along that shore and if there’s any clearing that will allow heating of the island it will also be light along that shore.
Once in Colvos Passage find the axis of the current and ride that north. Don’t get too close to either shore and watch for the puffs to come from the west. After you sail out of Colvos, aim the boat for the barn as you should be in a nice SW breeze all the way to the finish. Don’t get too close to Blake Island as it will be lighter next to the Island.
The next challenge will be the finish as the line will be off the north end of the Shilshole Breakwater. Once you are north of West Point, you may have to take a gybe to get into the line. Could be interesting if you gybe early and you end up on a port tack approach to the finish with other boats coming in on starboard.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
The Zim Kingston, the same ship that lost approximately 40 containers off the entrance to the Strait of Juan de Fuca on Friday, is now burning at anchor off Victoria, BC. Ten of the crew have been evacuated while the captain and a handful of other crew remained on board.
This is a serious situation as the ship may sink, and any floating or partially submerged containers pose a threat to navigation. Details are still emerging, and we’re piecing this together with incomplete information. It’s advised to stay away from the burning ship and be on the lookout for containers. Wind is now over 30 knots at Race Rocks according to the Canadian Weather Service.
Kurt grew up racing and cruising in the Midwest, and has raced Lasers since the late 1970s. Currently he is a broker at Swiftsure Yachts. He has been Assistant Editor at Sailing Magazine and a short stint as Editor of Northwest Yachting. Through Meadow Point Publishing he handles various marketing duties for smaller local companies. He currently is partners on a C&C 36 which he cruises throughout the Northwest. He’s married to the amazing Abby and is father to Ian and Gabe.
Yet another beautiful week for weather in the PacNW. The only problem will be that this is still relatively early in the summer and with the excessive heat last week, everything is already at an August level of dryness. This will mean more wildfires and it’s also entirely possible that we’ll have even more days of excessive heating, We are also at 24 days without rain and there is no end in sight for that trend. Even though we did have a very heavy mist on the Straits early Wednesday morning, not enough to show on the rain gauge but I did have to turn on the wipers to clear the windshield.
Our Pacific High has still not set up in what we would call a normal position nor is it at a normal shape or strength. This is going to keep our weather very much the same for the foreseeable future and make for a very interesting TransPac. Currently, the Pacific High is flattened along a line at about 40°N from about 130°W-175°E and is only at 1029 to 1031MB where it would normally be round in shape, centered near 45°N and 145°W and be 1035 to 1040MB. The other feature of note today are the 500MB charts which show only a small piece of the jet stream because it is so far north. There is a small meander that shows up at the 48-hour forecast however that becomes an upper-level, cut-off low-pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska.
July 9 500 MB
July 9 Surface Analysis
July 10 Surface Forecast
July 11 500 MB
July 11 Surface Forecast
July 12 Surface Forecast
July 13 500 MB
July 13 Surface Forecast
It’s going to be another beautiful weekend to be on the water especially if you have a powerboat. With high pressure offshore and low pressure inland this will maintain an onshore flow at least well into next week. It will also keep the smoke from the Canadian fires headed to the east. As usual, the most wind will be in the afternoons in the Central and Eastern Straits. A thermal northerly will fill down the Sound in the afternoons however the rest of the time it will be light.
One of the reasons we like the Three Buoy Fiasco is that you only have three marks and you can take them in any order. You can also start either direction and since it’s a staggered start with handicaps applied you can find some interesting starting situations. The question is always which way to go first. This year there is no clear answer so you will want to note current conditions before you leave the house and then once you get out on the course. The current models show there may be a residual southerly in the central Sound in the morning with a dead zone north of Shilshole. Combine this with the tidal currents and if there is wind to the south and no wind to the north, you’re going south first. Plus you get some help from the flood tide.
Tidal Currents West Point
0848 Slack
1442 Max Flood 1.15knts
1748 Slack
Once you get around the south mark it will be a close reach that turns into a beat as the wind goes around to the NW around noon to 1400 hrs.
Regardless, it will be fun! Be safe, use the sunblock, and have a great time.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
So much for the old adage that summer doesn’t start in Seattle until the 5 of July. If however, you like heat, the next two weeks are for you with this coming Monday possibly being the highest temperature ever recorded in Seattle since records were kept. Some models are showing the high on Monday being 107°F, with Portland baking at 114°F on Sunday and 113°F on Monday. The high temp for Seattle isn’t predicted to be below 80°F until the 9th of July. Darn, if only I had ordered AC last winter.
June 25 500 MB
June 25 Surface Analysis
June 26 Surface Forecast
June 27 500 MB
June 27 Surface Forecast
June 28 Surface Forecast
June 29 500 MB
June 29 Surface Forecast
Today’s surface analysis chart, satellite pic, and tomorrow’s surface forecast chart show the reason for this unusual (or maybe the new norm) weather. We have a very elongated and relatively weak high-pressure system off the coast with a weak high in northern BC and two highs over central Oregon and central California. The weak (1013MB) low-pressure off of our coast isn’t moving and isn’t strong enough to push the high around. In combination with the fact that we are just a week past the Solstice, the sun is spending a lot of time heating the ground and with a lot of green foliage around to absorb this energy the air is just going to get warmer and thermal throughs will develop inland creating an offshore breeze Saturday through Monday. The offshore breeze combined with downslope compressional heating is what will create the record highs Sunday and Monday. Note also the surface forecast chart for the 26th and the 27th which show no less than six thermal low troughs over the West Coast and one that has been pushed offshore. It is going to be HOT!
As we have mentioned previously, as long as the jet stream stays south, our temperatures will remain cool. Now that the jet stream is now coming ashore near Yakutat, AK and an upper-level high-pressure system is sitting over us, temps will remain warm and these systems won’t move very much.
This will be pretty good weather for boating especially if you are a powerboater. Winds will be light except in the Eastern Straits and Central Sound on Saturday afternoon when we’ll have a westerly in the Straits and a northwesterly in the Sound. Since this is a thermally generated breeze, it will ease as the sun goes down. Sunday, the breeze will stay light in the Straits while another thermal breeze develops in the Central Sound which will bring Mother Natures’ air condioning into the areas next to the water. Areas away from the water will remain hot.
Break out the sunblock early and don’t forget that while the air is very hot, the Sound is still very cool and hypothermia can still be a killer.
Be safe and have a great weekend.
Ed. note: Our intrepid meteorologist did this report in challenging circumstances on the road. Thanks, Bruce!
Kurt grew up racing and cruising in the Midwest, and has raced Lasers since the late 1970s. Currently he is a broker at Swiftsure Yachts. He has been Assistant Editor at Sailing Magazine and a short stint as Editor of Northwest Yachting. Through Meadow Point Publishing he handles various marketing duties for smaller local companies. He currently is partners on a C&C 36 which he cruises throughout the Northwest. He’s married to the amazing Abby and is father to Ian and Gabe.
The Pacific NW Offshore (formerly Oregon Offshore) got off to a nice start yesterday and had a fairly speedy run up the coast ahead of the front that is passing over the area today. Unfortunately, as the fleet turned the corner at Neah Bay and started towards Port Angeles, the breeze quit. One boat, Haven, in the Cruising Class used their four-hour powering allowance to move right up to the leader, Rage who is now 22 miles from the finish. I included the track which shows Rage spent a fair amount of time going nowhere. The outlook for more wind isn’t good even though at Diamond Point on Discovery Bay we now have 30-knots of SE. While Port Angeles Coast Guard Station is showing NNW at 3, the Ediz Eddy is definitely in play. There is just not going to be much wind in the Central Strait until midday tomorrow. There will be patches of breeze maybe to 10 knots but those will come and go.
Certainly can’t complain about the rain today, we need it, don’t worry, tomorrow is going to great with some rain returning on Sunday. So just how bad is the drought in the west? I enclose this comparison for your edification.
Tomorrow will be the best day of the weekend with lots of attempted sailing going on. In Canada (not yet open to Americans) they were going to have the Round Bowen Island Race however that has been canceled. In the Central Sound, we’ll have the WSSA Blake Island Race, Leukemia Cup Regatta, and the Summer Vashon. All of these will be light air affairs.
In the North Sound, we’ll have Mad Dash out of Edmonds which of all the events this weekend has the best chance of having some breeze.
Today’s Surface Analysis and Satellite Pic show why we are going to have such a light air weekend, there simply isn’t much of a pressure gradient. That low-pressure system offshore with its’ attached frontal system is slowly weakening and not moving very far or very fast. The Jet stream is still to the south of us and will only move slightly to the north over the next couple of days. This will keep temps on the cool side bring us sporadic showers through the upcoming week. As I said, I’m fine with that. Anything to keep the fire danger down.
Todays 500MB Analysis has an interesting upper-level cut-off low in the western Pacific which we should watch
The Chart for tomorrow shows an increasing gap in the pressure gradient, with a weak high-pressure system over Central Washington.
The Surface Chart for Sunday shows a weak warm front moving over the Sound with the offshore low still not moving very much, if at all. The 500Mb Chart confirms why.
The Surface Chart for Monday still has the front from Sunday still over the area and the offshore low weakening to 1004Mb and remaining stationery.
The 500Mb Chart for the 15th of June shows the jet stream taking quite a wild meander after it leaves our area.
Have a great weekend and congrats to all participants in the WA360 Race which started on Monday. The first boats finished yesterday with monhulls beating multihulls and while the human-powered boats led all the way to Bellingham they finally ran out of gas and the sailboats caught up very quickly when there was finally some wind. Exciting finish to watch yesterday.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
The Salish 200 Race, which starts tonight at 1900hrs off of Pt. Hudson in Port Townsend(PT), is a very cool concept which we at Sailish think we will see more of as racing slowly comes back online. The course is pretty simple; start in PT go around the San Juan Islands(SJI) using the same marks as Round the County, then go around Vashon Island and finish back at PT. You can start by going around the SJI first or by going around Vashon first and you can go either direction around the marks. This will be a navigators race and considering that the crew limit is five, the larger boats are going to be very busy.
Of course, the tides will be an issue as they always are when you race in this part of the world and since tides are known, we’ll cover those first.
Admiralty Inlet
1830 3.0 knts Max fld
2300 Slack
27 June
0206 1.83 Max ebb
0506 Slack
0724 1.41 Max fld
1030 Slack
1336 1.8 Max ebb
1612 Slack
1924 2.81 Max fld
2348 Slack
West Point
2130 Slack
2312 .42 Max Ebb
27 June
0154 Slack
0706 .56 Max Fld
1018 Slack
1136 .16 Max Ebb
1254 Slack
1430 .16 Max fld
1930 .75 Fld
2230 Slack
Rosario Strait
2018 2.65 Max fld
27 June
0024 Slack
0406 1.57 Max ebb
0854 .3 ebb
1424 1.96 Max ebb
1742 Slack
Turn Point
27 June
0030 Slack
0206 .94 Max ebb
0436 Slack
0742 1.38 Max Fld
1042 Slack
1400 2.26 Max ebb
1701 Slack
2106 3.21 Max Fld
Now for the weather, it will be a tale of four regions, the Straits of JdF, the SJI, Admiralty Inlet (AI), and Puget Sound. As we know from racing around here, these are very much micro-regions and each can have very different weather which will be the case this weekend.
June 26 500mb
June 26 Surface Analysis
June 26
June 27 Surface Forecast
June 28 500mb
June 28 Surface Forecast
June 29 Surface Forecast
June 30 500mb
June 30 Surface Forecast
The Surface Charts show the reason for this. We are finally starting to get the Pacific High into a more normal position and nearly a normal pressure. This has contributed to the high becoming more rounded and as a result more stable. We’ve also had some very warm temperatures on the other side of the mountains which is supporting a thermal trough over the area. Higher pressure offshore, lower pressure inshore=onshore flow. Yes, in the charts and the Sat Pic you’ll see a cold front approaching with Langley radar just starting to pick up the leading edge of this very weak front. The Sat Pic shows there is not much to this and as it hits the coastal buffer zone it will rapidly deteriorate. There may be some scattered showers around however this won’t amount to much. By tomorrow morning it will be long gone and the offshore high will continue to build in pressure and become more stable.
Remember the old Puget Sound Rule of Thumb, the first day that the ridge of high pressure starts to build will be the best day for wind over the Sound. Such will be the case today. When we sent up the Sailish.com weather spy drone at 0600hrs this morning we had a relatively uniform northerly (8-12knts) over the area from Pt No Point to Pt Robinson. As of noon, it has dropped off, especially the area south of Alki, while at Race Rocks we had 36-knots of westerly, it has now eased to 30-knots however we can expect Gale warnings in the Central and Eastern Straits this afternoon and into the evening with 30-35-knots with higher gusts. The gradient difference from Forks to Bellingham is already at 2.1mb so the breeze will happen. This will fill down the Sound to at least the Narrows with 10-18 knots of NNW. While the wind will continue in the Straits overnight, after the sun goes down it will drop in the Sound.
Saturday, while the wind may have slightly eased in the Straits overnight, once the land starts to heat the westerly will once again build in the Straits. Unfortunately, the wind will stay light over most of the Sound until very late Saturday afternoon when it finally gets above five-knots for at least a couple of hours before it dies off again after sunset.
By early Sunday morning, the wind in the Straits will start to ease and will continue to do so over the day as the pressure gradient weakens in the Straits. The Central Sound will have wide swaths of calm and very light air because some of the onshore flow will finally make it through the Chehalis Gap and start flowing up the Sound. This will keep the wind light and variable for most Sunday. By about midday Sunday, a light northerly should develop in Admiralty Inlet as the land once again begins to heat up.
As you can probably tell from the above description, the weather will be challenging for this weekend. Tonight will be no joke in the Straits so rig for heavy weather, get the jack lines set up, and everyone in lifejackets with safety harnesses. It will be nasty enough and with the flood tide, some boats may be tempted to go down the Sound first and try to get around Vashon tonight. This would make for a long race.
Those who go north first will find the Straits rough but once you get into the shelter of the Islands it will back right off with some boats making it to Patos by midnight. With any kind of luck, and that’s because the models don’t agree, the bigger boats will be back to PT by between 0600 and 1000 hrs Saturday morning after a nice close to beam reach becoming a run in 8-15 knots of WNW. This is when things will slow and right now it looks like even the big boats will have a tough time finishing within the time limit.
The good news is that if you’re a Seattle boat go north first, take your time at Pt. Hudson on the way south, and then when you realize you’re not going to make the time limit, it’s a short hop back to the dock. At least you can finish one race.
This is going to be a great race at least for a while. Enjoy and please keep the AIS on so I can see what’s going on out there.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
It’s beginning to look a lot like a typical June in the Pacific Northwest, some sun, some clouds, some rain, some lightning, some hail, and as we said last week, no summer until the 5th of July. At least the first official day of summer is only 8 days away, arriving on the 20th of June, 1444 hrs PDT which means we can’t be too far away from the lowest tides of the year and the best time to take the kids on a beach walk. Remember, take pictures not critters, and be sure to turn the rocks back over once you’re done investigating. This year that would be on June 23rd at right around noon with a -2.38 foot tide at Discovery Bay or -2.71feet at West Point.
June 12 500mb
June 12 Surface Analysis
June 13 Surface Forecast
June 14 500mb
June 14 Surface Forecast
June 15 Surface Forecast
June 16 500mb
June 16 Surface Forecast
Here in the rainshadow of the Olympics at Discovery Bay, we’ve had .87 inches of rain so far today which is very near a record for June for this location. Overall, at SeaTac, we are almost 4” of rain ahead for June and as you look at the surface charts for today, it ain’t about to stop! At least the Doppler weather radar is showing some relief headed our way, not so much for Seattle or the South Sound.
The reason for all this continues to be a depressed jet stream which is primarily zonal. The jet stream continues to be well south of where it should be on this date. Even with the days getting longer in the northern hemisphere, which should be causing atmospheric heating and fostering a strengthening of the Pacific High, this is not yet happening. Then when you look at the upper air charts you’ll see a succession of upper-level low-pressure systems continuing to move towards the Pacific NW.
Overall, this means more unsettled conditions coming into our area for most of the upcoming week. With higher pressure offshore this will bring a continuing onshore flow that will come down the Straits as well as around the bottom side of the Olympics. This will keep the wind light in the central Sound but there will be occasional stronger westerlies in the central and eastern Strait of JdF.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
This West Vancouver Yacht Club race is a great idea and a great way to get sailboat racing restarted. Meets all the requirements for your social bubble and social distancing with even a provision that if contestants get within six-feet of one another they can be disqualified without a hearing. The course is pretty simple starting from the Pt. Grey Bell Buoy, round Popham and Little Popham to port and then return to the Pt Grey Buoy. Just 20 miles with handicaps applied at the start and as of this morning there are 42 entrants.
June 5 500mb
June 5 Surface Analysis
June 6 500mb
June 6 Surface Forecast
June 7, 500mb
June 7 Surface Forecast
June 8 Surface Forecast
June 9 Surface 500 mb
There may be a little rain over the weekend but it won’t be a washout. Today’s Surface Analysis and Sat Pic show a complex weather picture which none of the models can agree on as far as where the wind will come from and how much wind there will be. The reason for this is that there may be a bit of a pressure gradient bringing S-SSW wind over the area tomorrow morning however that gradient will ease around mid-day bringing light air to the race course. One model has the breeze at race time from the NW so a light air beat to the top mark. Another has the 5-8 knots from the SW for the start becoming southerly 4-6 knots from the S. All caused by a very weak gradient over the area. This will keep crews busy, trimming like crazy as the wind will be shifty.
A glance at the 500mb charts show the jet stream flattening out to the south of us and this will bring more unsettled into our area next week. As usual, no summer until July 5th.
Enjoy the weekend, and if you have AIS please leave it on for the race so I can follow it from Seattle.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
