It is the last days of the Seattle Boat Show which closes tomorrow so don’t even think about going on Sunday, Weather looks great for either the indoor or outdoor venues, so enjoy. The best day for wind will be Sunday and as long as you’re not watching Super Bowl, it will be a nice pre-frontal day for sailing.
We are still experiencing a dryer and cooler than normal winter with only .84” of rain in the gauge compared to an average of 1.33”. Year to date we’ve only had 3.93” compared to an average of 7.11”. Don’t worry, there is still plenty of time to make up for this shortage. Plus in the upcoming week, we will also be getting another short shot of Canadian Cool around mid-week, so keep the woolies handy.
The surface analysis and sat pic for today show a beautiful low-pressure system with an attached front just ready to come ashore with cool, unstable air behind the front. This is significant as this may bring thundershowers to the area on Tuesday. Both also show the two weak fronts that will be coming ashore in California bringing more rain and snow to the Central Valley and Sierra Nevadas.
The only problem for the Winter Shaw Island Classic will be that while there may be enough wind to start, it is just going to get lighter over the course of the day. At least there won’t be much if any, rain. The rest of the Salish Sea will experience the same.
So more rain on Tuesday and then maybe by next weekend, Welcome to winter in the Salish Sea!
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
A perfect weekend for a boat show. If you’re seriously interested in a boat, there is no better time to look at one than in the water on a rainy blustery day! We will certainly have that today with winds to 30 knots this afternoon and plenty of rain. The best part is that you won’t be competing with looky-lous. They will just be at the indoor show which this year is huge so the lines won’t be too long to get into the boat you want to see.
So much for the forecast of a wetter and colder winter because of La Niña. OK, it might have been a bit cooler in January but the rain and snow pretty much stayed away. For January we only had 3.09” of rain compared to an average of 5.78” so 2.69 behind for the month. Last year we had 7.06” in January. Looking at today’s charts we are due for a series of systems starting today and continuing through the week, with the potential for a fairly strong system about mid-week. Might be a good time to check on the boat, re-tie the mooring lines, and check the fenders. Then you can go to the Boat Show and check on the deals available on those items!
Today’s surface analysis, sat pic, and Doppler radar all provide quite a dramatic view of what’s happening around here. Gale warnings for the waters and high wind warnings for western Washington. The Coast and the Strait of JdF will see the highest winds with a strong ESE breeze today and tomorrow with a brief respite on Sunday as we will have a strong post-frontal onshore flow down the Strait and strong NW flow offshore. This will keep the winds in the Central and South Sound fairly weak.
The surface analysis chart for today shows a complex pattern of six low-pressure systems with attached cold fronts aimed at the Pacific NW. By tomorrow three of the lows offshore will have combined to form a very large system with a cold front that extends from the north end of Vancouver Island almost to Hawaii. While the center itself will move into SE Alaska, the West Coast will feel the effects of this cold front since there is no ridge of high pressure to fend it off.
The 48-hour surface forecast chart, always one of my favorites, has a Roser Low Index rating of 12 which generally indicates an active week of weather for our area. The other interesting feature is a moderate high-pressure system (1034MB) in the Pacific off of Southern California. Combined with the zonal flow of the Jet Stream, this will keep systems coming into the Pacific NW. No Pineapple Express so the snowpack will continue to build in the Sierra Nevada’s and the Cascade’s.
Have a great weekend, enjoy the boat show and if you do head out on the waters, be sure to check on current conditions. It is that time of year and conditions can change rapidly!
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
As is visible on yesterday’s surface analysis and sat pic, we’ve got a weak frontal system that has passed over us and will continue to the east. Behind the front, a weak onshore flow will develop today however it won’t last long as a strong high-pressure system in southern BC will bring a strong offshore flow and cooler temps to the area. This developing ridge of high-pressure will also keep us with one of the driest Januarys ever with less than 3” of rain so far.
There isn’t much going on this weekend as most boaters are anticipating the opening of the Big Seattle Boat Show just one week from today. The interesting feature on today’s surface forecast chart is the 1051MB high developing over southern BC. This will bring a strong outflow with freezing temps through the Fraser River Valley and over the weekend this will also bring a strong outflow through the passes in the Cascades.
The folks in the San Juan Islands will feel the effects of this outflow with winds of 25-35 knts of NE breeze with the possibility of higher gusts. This will spread south over the weekend with the areas below the gaps in the Cascades getting the brunt of this breeze, especially in the south Sound. The central Sound will stay with a light breeze.
You can start planning which seminars to see this weekend as well as get your tickets online. That way when the Show opens you’ll be set.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
Well, finally the wx picture is starting to change. The Canadians have gotten tired of being the only ones with a big ridge of high pressure to defend the coast and have sent the ridge south to the US. So we now have four separate centers of high-pressure along the coast and with the jet stream now becoming meridional as it approaches the coast, this will keep the major storms away however since the high is only 1035MB, fronts will still drag across the area. Note today’s sat pic, we can finally see the coast south to Mexico. Expect another weak front tonight and into early Saturday morning. Another front will come through the area on Monday.
The interesting feature of the front tonight and into early Saturday will be the post-frontal onshore flow of wind down the Straits, especially in the Eastern Straits where we could see 35-40 knots of westerly with higher gusts along the Whidbey shore. This will ease late Saturday and into Sunday as the next front approaches.
Also of interest will be the 96hr surface forecast chart which shows the high pressure strengthening offshore to 1036MB and a formidable ridge developing over the coast from SE Alaska to Southern California. This will keep our weather relatively mild into early February. Won’t help to continue to build the snowpack but at least it won’t cause a huge melt-off. Another point of interest on this chart is the western Pacific. Note that the ice accretion line extends south to 40N all along the Asian coast with the sea ice line not far behind.
For the Salish Sea other than a rainy Saturday, the weather will be mild. Winds will be strong as noted above however boaters can expect a light breeze over the central and south Sound for most of the weekend.
Nothing to do now but get ready for the Big Seattle Boat Show which will be open from Feb 3-11th at Lumen Field and Bell Harbor. Go online to SeattleBoatShow.com to get your tickets and plan which seminars you’ll attend and there are plenty of those.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
Here it is the 6th of January and we are almost 1” behind the average rainfall for this date and almost 2” behind where we were a year ago. Looking at the upcoming weather this will probably not change over the next week as we will have warmer than normal temps with scattered rain.
Today’s surface analysis chart and sat pic show yet another impressive set of low-pressure systems off of our coast with more lurking. The problem for the Duwamish Head Race will be that these lows and attached frontal systems will be directed either due north, paralleling the coast, or even off to the NNW. This will keep the wind at 5-12 knots from the E-SE in the morning before the gradient eases as the front moves offshore. By about midday, the breeze will ease to about 5 knots and become variable. Plan to finish before mid-afternoon when the Sound will glass off from Alki to South of Des Moines. Luckily, tidal currents will not be much of an issue.
Also of interest today is the 48hr surface forecast chart which shows two lows combining off the California coast and a third low-pressure system in the western Pacific that is forecast to undergo bombogenesis as it intensifies from 989MB to 963MB.
The 500MB charts also are not changing much with the jet stream maintaining its zonal flow across the Pacific and coming ashore in Southern California.
As these fronts continue to pass offshore the coastal waters will continue to experience occasional strong breezes and high seas.
For the race at least it will be a relatively warm rain in light air.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
What a way to end a crazy year of weather. That doesn’t, of course, mean that things will be any different next year. In true La Niña three-peat fashion, we will end the year with above-average rainfall. Month to date we’ve had 6.88” compared to an average of 5.36” and it will continue to rain through the rest of the day before we ease into what should be a relatively dry weekend. For the year we are at 39.6” which is a whopping 3.73” behind where we were a year ago and yet only .6” above average. The good news is that our snow-pack is still above average and at least for the foreseeable future it will stay that way. Great news for skiers but watch for avalanche hazards.
Today’s surface analysis, sat pic, and Wx Radar all show what we are in for today with a 978MB low-pressure system off of Vancouver Island with an impressive cold front that extends almost to Hawaii. When combined with the zonal nature of the jet stream (see 500MB chart), not much is going to change. While we may get a brief respite from this wet pattern over the weekend, next week will return with consecutive days of rain with occasional wind. Welcome to January.
The surface forecast charts and the 500MB charts also show good news for our friends in California as they will get more much-needed rainfall as well as additional snowpack in the Sierra Nevada’s. The long-range (96hr) 500MB charts show the jet stream continuing to be very zonal and continuing to drift to the south, coming ashore in Mexico by the 3rd of January.
For the Salish Sea, we can expect a coolish weekend with some light rain tomorrow but generally light wind. So the anchorages will be sparsely populated and it won’t be howling at night. A perfect weekend for cruising.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
What a difference a couple of hours make. We go from an ice-coated skating rink to freezing rain, to just plain rain. The problem will be in the areas that didn’t get cleared today as freezing conditions will continue into this evening until the warm rain starts to fall. Then it will all go away probably by noon tomorrow. The upcoming week will mark a distinct change in our weather.
Today’s surface analysis chart and sat pic show the remains of our ridge of high pressure that has been protecting us, deteriorating and moving east. While out in the Pacific there are a series of relatively strong low-pressure systems with attached frontal systems that will ride the jet stream(see today’s 500MB charts) right into the Pacific NW. Gone is the lowland snow while the valley rain will ramp up and the mountain snow will continue. It is after all the first week of winter so welcome to the real Pacific NW.
The coast and the San Juan Islands will bear the brunt of these systems with the possibility of gale-force winds as these systems come ashore. The Inland waters will see 15-25 knots of SE-S-SW breeze. This will continue into the upcoming week as each strong frontal system will bring roughly the same conditions.
sailish.com Boat-of-the-Year!
The Committee started early on this project because it was the first year of presenting this prestigious award. Then, after many Zoom meetings, it was decided that the Committee should meet in person for the final ballot. After a couple of hours of discussion, the result was an almost unanimous decision on the first ballot. The Committee then proceeded to request that we continue to deliver egg nog to the room even though the voting was over.
Longboard by Sean Trew
It is a great honor to present this year’s Sailish.Com Boat-of-the–of-the-Year Award to the mighty Bieker 35 Longboard! Peter Salusbury and his team out of West Vancouver Yacht Club had a truly exceptional year winning all three of the major races held in the Pacific NW. Those races were South Straits, Swiftsure, and Round the County, all of which had large and very competitive fleets. The Committee felt it was important to recognize the fact that Longboard races in the ORC group which is a measurement rule division, with no arbitrary ratings here. Plus Longboard is one of the smallest boats in all of ORC. That, however, didn’t keep Longboard from always finishing up with the bigger boats. They also consistently and intuitively went the right way on these long courses which is a real testament to Peter and his team and the way they run the boat.
Congratulations Longboard!
Note: The Committee of which Bruce speaks (side note that Bruce is currently in 72 degree weather wearing shorts and is nowhere near the ice he’s writing about ) will feature the STAPYs in a separate post. The Committee invites our readers to submit their nominees, because, face it, you see a lot of things we don’t. KH
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
Other than the usual madness, not much is going on this weekend which makes it the perfect time to go for a short cruise. The anchorages aren’t crowded, the wind will be light and there won’t be much rain.
We have a nice ridge of high pressure just inland from the coast as well as a 1040MB high in the Gulf of Alaska. Both of these features as well as the jet stream will serve to keep us fairly dry.
This is currently a weak offshore flow that will continue through the day however by tomorrow a weak onshore flow will develop as the high in the Gulf of Alaska becomes a more dominant feature.
As the offshore high weakens and the inland high strengthens to 1052MB this will bring a strong Fraser River outflow to the Salish Sea along with a chance of snow on Sunday as that flow interacts with the moisture coming in from the Pacific.
Next week we will announce the Sailish.Com Boat of the Year recognizing excellence in sailing. The Committee is hard at work deciphering hundreds of race results and applying those to a fairly complicated formula. Thank goodness it’s the Holiday Season and there is plenty of eggnog available.
Enjoy the weekend and if you go out on the water, be safe.
Ed. Note: In addition to Boat of the Year (oh yeah Bruce we’ll have to do those difficult quantifications over a beer or three) we will announce various TA (Totally Arbitrary, what did you think) awards to sailors, luminaries, industry folk, do-gooders etc. Nominations welcome.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
As our winter weather returns to “normal” we can expect some great sailing this weekend. What does “normal” mean? As far as precip goes we are at 33.72” for the year compared to an average of 35.14” so only 1.42” below normal but 6.31” behind where we were a year ago. The La Niña three-peat isn’t exactly racking up the numbers we’d expect except in the mountains where the snowpack is now over 100% of normal in the Cascades and Olympics, which is good unless you’re trying to dry over the passes.
Today’s Surface Analysis Chart shows a well-developed surface low-pressure system (983MB) just off the coast with an attached frontal system that will move through the Salish Sea late this afternoon and into Saturday morning. This will bring storm-force winds with higher gusts to the coast and Strait of JdF and gale-force winds to the San Juan Islands and Admiralty Inlet. Note the NWS Regional Forecast Chart. There is a second, slightly weaker low-pressure system (989MB) off of Sitka that will join the stronger low by tomorrow. This consolidated system will stay off the coast and slide south to bring more welcome rain and snow to northern California and the Sierra Nevada’s.
By Sunday our wall of inland high-pressure will rebuild over lower BC and this keep our weather relatively benign for the next 7-10 days. The cost of this will be below freezing temps at night for the same period. This also means no lowland or mountain snow however any runoff on the roads will freeze and create icy conditions for most mornings. Interesting commutes for sure.
As far as sailing this weekend, our friends in Victoria will be glad they’re racing on Sunday and not on Saturday because Saturday in the Straits it will be howling from the SE. Sunday they can expect a chilly 10-18 knots from the Fraser River Valley.
For the Snowbird Race in the Central Sound expect 15-20 from the SE in the morning, easing to 10-15 from the S in the afternoon. There will even be wind in the South Sound for the Hope Island Race just slightly less. Oh, and it will be a rainy Saturday over the entire area.
Dress appropriately, stay safe, and have a great weekend!
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
So when was the last race that wasn’t shortened at the top end of Vashon Island? Who cares! The point here is that this weekend looks like a Winter Vashon from the old days. Clear the snow off the deck, have a hot buttered rum (HBR), rig the boat, have an HBR, add another layer of woolies under the foul wx gear, have an HBR, and head for the starting line! Then, while on the race constantly check for hypothermia, especially on the upwind leg, and add HBR’s as necessary. Set the spinnaker at the top mark and have a nice semi-breezy run down the finish. Cross the finish line, de-rig the boat, have an HBR, head up to the fabulous hospitality of TYC, and swap lies with your fellow competitors. As I said, those were the good old days. Now in the age of high-performance boats and crews, we wait until after the race for an HBR while still enjoying the great hospitality at the Club! During the race, we use Chinese hot and sour soup to stay warm.
Our wacky winter weather continues as we start the month of December. We’ve had an early winter snow flurry and a drier-than-normal November, and we are still below normal rainfall for the year. A quick glance at today’s surface analysis chart, the 500MB chart, and the sat pic provide us with a great visual as to why this is happening. We have a weak low (997MB) offshore of the Olympic Peninsula that is moving to the south, not coming ashore, with a well-defined cold front as well as a stalled occluded front right over the top of us. Inland from us, we have a series of high-pressure systems from central Alaska to southern California which are continuing to block or weaken any systems that might head our way. The interesting feature on the 500MB chart is the wild meander in the jet stream which takes a due north path at about 163Wand goes north to about 62Nbefore it does a 180 and dives south 40N before turning to the east and coming ashore south of San Francisco. The combination of the wall of high-pressure systems and the path of the jet stream will keep the low-pressure system off of our coast headed to south and the attached cold front will bring much-needed rain to the central valley of CA and snow to the Sierra Nevada’s.
As you work your way through the charts, the upper air charts get even more interesting on the 4th of Dec when that meander to the north becomes an upper-level cut-off high-pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska, you don’t see that very often. On the 6th of Dec that cut-off high disappears while a new and intense upper-level cutoff low-pressure system forms to the NW of Hawaii. In the past, these systems have brought heavy rains and flooding to Kauai so we will be watching that as the week goes on.
So what does all of this mean for Winter Vashon? Pretty much it’s all good! We will start with a nice breeze of 8-18 knots from the ENE. With breeze being topographically forced down Colvos Passage, the breeze will ease to 5-12 from the NNE. Since you’ll be sailing up Colvos during the big flood of the day current won’t be much of a factor in Colvos. You will want to focus on being on starboard as you come off of the Vashon side of the Passage. The temptation will be to hit the Vashon side hard however since the breeze will be from the ENE-NE it will be possible to get too close to Vashon and into light air. Starboard tacks will be the long tacks so you’d like to come into the Vashon side on port south of the points so when you tack to starboard you’ll be sailing the lifting puffs as you work your way north. Once you get to about mid-channel on starboard look for a knock to tack back to port and go back to the Vashon shore. Tacticians and trimmers will be busy and will have no trouble staying warm.
The breeze will build slightly as you get to the top mark so you should be rounding in 12-16 knots of NNE so you’ll be sailing south on a port gybe. As you get past Pt Robinson you may want to delay gybing to starboard to make sure you stay in the breeze. From Pt. Robinson to the bottom end of both Maury and Vashon it will be lighter next to the islands. If you’re on starboard and you find yourself lifted above the finish and in less wind gybe immediately and get back into breeze.
As the day progresses and the offshore low-pressure system drifts to the south, the inland high-pressure systems over southern BC will build and this will bring a stronger NE-ENE breeze (15-20 knts) to the race course. There may still be light air patches from Robinson south as this develops. Tend to favor the rhumbline and stay slightly to the east of rhumb. By early evening, the breeze should be fairly solid from the NE.
Have a great race, stay warm, be safe and keep the AIS on so I can track you.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
