Bruce’s Briefs

Welcome to summer in the Pacific NW. We are going to have a slightly warm Saturday and a cooler Sunday, with still no rain in sight.  Again, compared to the rest of the country, we are so lucky. If you look at the big picture we have the fifth named storm in the Atlantic (Don) and the third named hurricane (Calvin) in the Pacific. As Calvin weakens on its path to the West it does have the potential to impact the Big Island of Hawaii with rain and some wind just not of hurricane force. For this early in the season, that’s a bunch of named storms, and conditions in both oceans favor more storm development.

If today’s Brief sounds familiar, it should because our situation hasn’t changed very much. Today’s sat pic does show an interesting new development with smoke from the BC wildfires just north of Idaho and starting to flow into Montana, this will increase over the next couple of days however it will not impact the Salish Sea, yet.  

We still have a very weak and unstable high-pressure system off the California coast with a ridge of high-pressure building along our coast. We also have a very weak low-pressure system (1010MB) with an attached cold front due west of us however this will degrade as it hits the ridge and the coastal buffer zone. By Sunday the low will have drifted to the north and the cold front will have drifted slowly towards the coast.

For the local area, boaters can expect light wind in most of the waters until the onshore breeze fills down the Strait of JdF. This will result in small craft advisories and potentially gale warnings for the Central and Eastern Straits for both Saturday and Sunday. Exercise caution if transiting those areas.

Enjoy the weekend and as if the Chamber of Commerce weather we had for the All-Star Game wasn’t bad enough, don’t tell your friends in the rest of the country what we have going for us out here now! 

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)

We did see our first intrusion of wildfire smoke into the area this week however with our somewhat stable and repetitive weather pattern, it didn’t last long. The problem with our dry weather is the potential for wildfires as witnessed by communities near Shelton and the Columbia Gorge. Take a look at the map of the Potential for Wildland Fires in July. About 60% of the State of Washington is above normal while the rest of the State is at normal. Scary!  As we said last week, all it can take is a slight change in this pattern to bring more smoke into our area.

Today’s sat pic is very interesting showing that persistent marine layer along the coast as far south as Mendocino. Also visible is a weak cold front off the coast and a very weak low-pressure system off of mid-Vancouver Island. All of which will help keep the onshore flow coming down the Straits keeping our temps cool and the air clean. It will also bring the summertime strong westerly breezes to the Central and Eastern Straits usually in the late afternoon and early evening. Plan accordingly.

For Saturday in the Central Sound, we can expect a somewhat unusual south-to-southwest breeze of 5-12 knots until the onshore breeze fills down the Sound at 10-15 knots around mid-afternoon.  Sunday in the Central and South Sound conditions will be light until mid-afternoon when the onshore flow finally fills down the Sound around mid-afternoon.

All in all, another beautiful weekend for the Salish Sea.  Use sunblock and always be careful with fire any place you go ashore. 

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)

So much for the old saying that summer in Seattle doesn’t start until the 5^th of July. We are in for some great weather for the foreseeable future. Plus with the diurnal breeze filling down the Straits in the afternoon, evening sailing will be great in the central Sound. Witness the last two Downtown Sailing Series races in Elliott Bay. No wind until about 1600 hrs then a nice N-NE breeze fills in and builds to 12-15 knots. Everyone gets around the course in about 1-1.5 hours so plenty of time to enjoy the great post-race party. Then by sunset, the breeze drops so the trip back to Shilshole is pleasant and not too cold.

This is the good news. The bad news is that with all this great weather there is no rain in sight and the fire danger will definitely be increasing. All the more reason to spend more time on the water.  Then there’s the weather in the rest of the country, we are so lucky. At least at this point. With the fire season well underway in Canada, we are just a slight shift in this pattern away from smoke coming our way. Keep your fingers crossed. 

The other interesting part of this is that TransPac is just getting started and as usual with the staggered start sometimes you eat the bear and sometimes the bear eats you. The smaller boats and the cruising boats are well underway and enjoying some high-speed close reaching. The big boats start tomorrow and it will be lighter for them so no records this year. The other interesting fact is that there are no real rocketships entered this year.and only ONE TP-52 is making the run to the Islands. You have to wonder why?

Today’s surface chart shows a weak L-shaped Pacific High (1026MB) with quite a gap in the isobars surrounding the high. The other interesting feature on today’s charts are the not one but two hurricanes off of Mexico, Adrian and Beatriz. Adrain will weaken and become a post-tropical cyclone not presenting any threat to the TransPac fleet. Beatriz will weaken as it moves up the Mexican coast from Z-town to Cabo and it will do damage to those coastal communities with winds near 80 knots and heavy rainfall.

As we approach the 4^th, the Pacific High will only build to about 1030MB and still not assume a round, more stable shape. It will remain weak and out of position for at least another 10 days. This will allow the TP fleet to sail a shorter course and should make the delivery back to the coast a little easier.

For the Pacific NW the strongest winds, 15-30 knots, will be tonight in the Central and Eastern part of the Strait of JdF.  The rest of the weekend will see some residual breeze come down the Sound as well as swing up into the SJ Islands. The breeze will tend to light in the mornings and then gradually build in the afternoon. Also, while the air temps will be on the warm side, the water temps are still cold, and hypothermia is still a real possibility. By Tuesday and Wednesday, a thermally induced surface trough of low pressure will move up from California and Oregon. This will weaken the onshore flow and reduce the diurnal breeze over the area.

Enjoy the weekend, stay safe, and use the sunblock!   

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)

Ideal summer is finally in the Pacific NW. Congratulations to Jeanne and Evgeniy Goussev and the team on Gray Wolf for winning the 2023 R2AK, tough race and they trounced the competition! An outstanding example of planning, execution, and seamanship.

Once again, we are so lucky to be living in the Pacific NW. We just have to balance the weather with the very high cost of living, increasing gun violence, and failing infrastructure. Most of the country has the same problems but with terrible and dangerous weather. Our great weather will hold well into next week while the rest of the country will continue to suffer. Did I mention Hurricane season? It won’t affect us however the waters where these form are extremely warm and will continue to warm as the summer goes on even though the days are getting shorter.

Today’s pattern is very similar to what we’ve had recently with weak high-pressure offshore and a weak trough of low-pressure inland. This will keep the onshore flow we’ve had in place for at least the next week. 

The surface analysis chart, today’s 500Mb, and the sat pic show just how lucky we are to be where we are on the Salish Sea. The sat pic shows the coast to be well enveloped by a persistent maritime layer (June Gloom)  that only briefly clears in the late afternoon. The sat pic and 500MB chart also show a weak upper-level low-pressure system (565MB) right on top of us. With the jet steam well to the north of us, we will be protected from any storm systems coming along as well helping to keep our temps very pleasant.

Plenty of sailing and racing to be done this weekend however conditions will remain light for the central and south Sound while the Strait of JdF will have the usual breeze with small craft advisories and gale warnings at times. There will be some onshore flow that will make it down the Sound late on Saturday and Sunday.

Enjoy the weekend, use the sunblock, and stay safe.

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)

After a warm week, the onshore flow has returned and that has brought Mother Natures’ air conditioning back to the Pacific NW. It has also sent the smoke and haze from the wildfires in BC and Alberta to Eastern Washington. Take a look at the sat pic for yesterday.

The surface analysis chart shows that we still have a weak ridge of high pressure along the coast with a weak (1014MB) low-pressure system over Eastern Washington. This will keep the onshore flow in place well into next week. Also still in place over the Gulf of Alaska is that large but weaker low-pressure system with its attached cold front. There is a possibility the tail of the cold front may drag over the area on Tuesday. The 500MB charts show that this large low protrudes into the upper atmosphere and the jet stream is such that it won’t be moving very much.

The other interesting feature in the 500MB charts is the 96 hr chart which shows an upper level, cutoff, low-pressure system forming right over the Pacific Northwest, while the jet stream travels around this low and goes into southern mainland Alaska. This could make for a very interesting Swiftsure.

Winds for the weekend will stay a little on the light side for Puget Sound and Admiralty Inlet with some breeze filling down the Sound by mid to late afternoon. Wind in the Strait of JdF until mid to late afternoon will also be light however as the onshore breeze develops, it will blow in the Strait at 25-30 knots by early evening and hold until just after midnight. Sunday will see a similar pattern.

It is still a week until Swiftsure so anything could happen however, right now two models are showing that this could be a very long and very light Driftsure. So we’ll see.

Have a great weekend!

Kurt Hoehne

Kurt grew up racing and cruising in the Midwest, and has raced Lasers since the late 1970s. Currently he is a broker at Swiftsure Yachts. He has been Assistant Editor at Sailing Magazine and a short stint as Editor of Northwest Yachting. Through Meadow Point Publishing he handles various marketing duties for smaller local companies. He currently is partners on a C&C 36 which he cruises throughout the Northwest. He’s married to the amazing Abby and is father to Ian and Gabe.

It’s not going to be the nicest weekend but it also won’t be freezing cold. We’ll get most of the rain over by tonight however there will still be a few passing showers around tomorrow. In other words, just another spring-like day in the Pacific NW. The one thing you won’t have to worry about this weekend is too much wind. Tidal currents will be an issue because of the light air. At least for Saturday, you’ll have the big ebb of the day to push you north. Just be ready to take your time at Foul Weather Bluff(FWB), because when the flood starts, the wind will ease, making getting around Marrowstone a challenge.

Tidal Currents Admiralty Inlet Off Of Bush Pt.

0624       Slack

0918       Max Ebb               3.01 knts

1218       Slack

1548       Max Flood           2.87 knts

1948       Slack

Sunday

0624       Slack

0954       Max Ebb               3.07 knts

1254       Slack

1548       Max Flood           2.96 knts

2048       Slack

The sat pic for today and the surface analysis chart show the weak front that’s going over us today as well as the centers of the two low-pressure systems off of the coast. One is off of the Strait of JdF and one off of the Calf-Oregon border. Both are weak systems however with the jet stream remaining well to the south, these systems won’t be moving very fast or very far.

The surface forecast charts for the weekend continue to show a very weak pressure gradient over the Salish Sea. With light conditions for Saturday and 15-20 knots of SSW for Sunday. Saturday will start off with light and variable breeze until about noonish when a light northerly will fill down with the start of the flood tide, the Swihart Effect. You may have 10-12 knts of northerly from Pt No Pt to FWB just not much beyond FWB. There will also be plenty of breeze in the Straits, it just won’t get as far as Pt. Townsend.

Sunday will benefit the big boats and later starters as they will have more breeze and it will be a beat. The early starters will be in less wind and the start of the ebb. By 0900-1000hrs you could have 15-20 knots of SSW breeze. This however will only last until about 1200 hrs when it will start to ease and by 1500 hrs the breeze will be 4-8 knots of SSW from Jeff Head to the finish.

All in all, as it always is, it will be a great, fun weekend. Just be safe, and good luck!

Pacific NW Offshore Race starts May 11^th and while it may look like these low-pressure systems may pose a threat, they will remain offshore and provide racers with challenging and frustrating conditions. Maybe a little bit of running for the start off of the Columbia River becoming a close reach and then a beat the rest of the way to Victoria. First finishers in on Saturday afternoon. Luckily this could all change by Thursday, keep your fingers crossed. We will have an update on Monday and then a more detailed forecast for the Skippers meeting on Wednesday. 

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)