Bruce’s Briefs

Bruce’s Final R2AK Update and Weekend Weather Outlook

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs, Racing, Weather 1 Comment

As predicted, the Mad Dog guys crushed the record with Jungle Kitty second about 18 hours behind, followed by Broderna, Madrona and Mail Order Bride. Congratulations to all.

The weather up there did get a bit gnarly but not nearly as nasty as it’s going to get tomorrow mid afternoon with gusts to 40 from the south- southeast as another front passes over the area. The worst part is that in keeping with a fast moving frontal passage, the wind will clock steadily to the NNW and blow just as hard from that direction so the mid-Hecate Straits can expect winds to 35-knots between 2000 hrs and 2300 hrs. Backing off after that. Would not want to out there in mid-Straits for that.

As you can see from 24 hour surface chart there is that 1000MB low off of SE Alaska that is dissipating while another weaker but very fast moving 1009MB low aims right at Haida Gwaii (Queen Charlotte Islands) for Saturday with an attached frontal system that extends as far south as the Oregon/CA border. This will mean some unsettled weather for tomorrow and the possibility of scattered showers around the area on Sunday. Slight overcast on the 4th but not a washout. Break out the stern-mounted barbecues!

The main area to watch for the possibility of Small Craft advisories will be, as it has been all week, the Straits of Juan de Fuca from Sheringham Point to the San Juan Islands, and Admiralty Inlet. Remember also the wind will be the strongest in the afternoon , luckily the big flood tide of the day will be in the afternoon so while conditions (15-25 knots of westerly) won’t be great it won’t be the horrible mix-master you can get with wind against tide.

Have a great weekend, enjoy yourself and be safe at all times.

Ed. note: Bruce’s attention will now be completely focused on his Vic-Maui Race aboard Crossfire. He’s got his work cut out as a confusing weather pattern has dominated the northern Pacific for the last few weeks. Through the magic of technology, we’ll be hearing from Bruce during the race and will convey the juicy details as we can.

Bruce’s R2AK Brief 29 June, Steak Knife Hunters

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The picture now is becoming clearer as the MD 20/20 boys continue to extend their lead. As of 1200 PDT today they were about 80 miles ahead of the next group of steak knife hunters and are only about 170 miles from the finish which at their current speed will have them at the finish sometime between 0300 and 0900 Thursday morning.

Speaking of the Steak Knife Hunters, that fleet has tightened up considerably as the Jungle Kitty went inside of Hunter Island while Madrona and Broderna went the more traditional outside route and closed up with Jungle Kitty now only about 6 miles ahead of Madrona and Madrona about the same distance ahead of Broderna. It is going to be a real drag race to the finish in light of the upcoming weather. Don’t be surprised to see Broderna pass both the monohulls tomorrow as the wind frees up and builds.

What is also becoming clear is that the fleet will be in for some breeze starting Thursday afternoon as a series of fast moving fronts will be making their way over the fleet. As you can see in the Thursday PM surface chart there is a 1009MB low with an attached front aimed right for Dixon Entrance (DE) with a frontal system that extends south to the Washington coast. This will have the wind build from the south-southeast in Queen Charlotte Sound (QCS) and the south Hecate Strait (SoH) to 10-20 knots from the south. This will work its way north to the North Hecate( NoH) and Dixon Entrance (DE) by late Thursday, early Friday and then it is going to crank up to 15-25 along the BC coast with 30+ in the open waters between the QC I and the coast, all from the Southeast to South.

By mid day Friday you’ll have the first front pass through the area and the wind will moderate to 10-20 in QCS, 15-20 SoH, and 20-30 NoH all from a generally southern direction. By Friday evening the barometer will start to drop again as another front approaches the race area.

By early Saturday the fleet can expect 25-30 in SoH, 20-25 NoH and DE. By mid day Saturday the next front will pass and the fleet can expect 30+ in QCS, 15-30 SoH, and 20-30 NoH and DE. By late afternoon Saturday conditions will moderate somewhat as a ridge of high pressure rebuilds along the coast. The fleet can then expect SSW breeze of 10-20 in QCS and SoH, WNW 10-15 NoH, and westerly 15-20 in DE. By late Saturday the fleet will be looking at WNW 15 in QCS, NW 15-20 SoH and NoH, and W 15-20 DE.

We probably don’t need to remind anyone that this can be one very nasty stretch of water and while this isn’t as bad as the storms of winter, these are not conditions to be taken lightly. The other factor will be just how tired these teams will be at this point in the race. Safety first, last, and always.

Ed. Note: Thanks to Bruce for providing all the weather insights, and thanks to Carl Sutter and the Fisheries Supply gang for serving as starting boat back in Port Townsend. We spoke to him a little while ago, and he was excited to be a part of this grand adventure. Finally, thanks to all of you for discovering this blog – please share the discovery!

As Bruce changes hats from Meteorologist from Afar to Meteorologist on the Water when he navigates Crossfire in Vic-Maui, we’ll all have a chance to provide our own critique! kmh

Bruce’s R2AK Update and Tactical Outlook – 28 June

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs, Racing, Weather 5 Comments

Mad Dog continues to dominate the fleet while the battle for steak knives sharpens. Mad Dog is roughly 70 miles from the next Check Point at Bella Bella and holds about a 60 mile lead on the Jungle kitty and Madrona while another pickle fork (Brodema) continues to slowly gain on the two monohuills.

It will be slow going this morning as we look at the big picture and when you compare today’s map with tomorrows you’ll see a very interesting shift in how the NWS is viewing that front and low pressure system we mentioned yesterday. The stationary 1014 MB in today’s map shows a front that is breaking apart as it approaches the coast. The Wednesday morning chart shows a an intact warm front over the Queen Charlotte Islands with a cold front coming in right behind it. 12 hours later it’s all gone, with a new low having formed in the same place offshore where the 1014 Mb low was this morning. The reason for this is in the upper atmosphere (500MB) charts. Those pesky upper level lows are now isolated above the jet stream and with not much to push them around they will just continue to form new surface lows with associated frontal systems. All relatively weak but as you can see, strong enough to break up that weak high pressure system that was over SE Alaska.

While it may be slow going this morning with the light air out of the NNW, by late afternoon and into the early evening the wind will back around to NW. After about 2200 hours the wind right next to the BC coast will once again drop into the 0 to 4 knot range and stay in the 6-10 knot range from the NW south of Calvert Island.

For the Mad Dogs it will mean a slow approach into the CP at Bella Bella however by 0400 what wind there is will start to back around to the W. By about 1300 it will be up to about 6-8 knots from SW and the MD’s should once again be launched and headed towards to finish. There will some light spots as they get to Dixon Entrance which will allow the pursing pack of jackals to close a bit however as I said earlier, it will take a collision with something big or a major gear failure to keep them from finishing first and breaking the existing course record.

Bruce’s Brief: R2AK Update Monday June 27, 2016

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MAd Dog at Campbell River
Mad Dog going by the Tyee Pool at the Dick Murphy Park in Campbell River.

As of 0615 this morning the mighty Mad Dog after a bit of a slow night was once again moving towards a perfectly timed entrance into Seymour Narrows. At 1100 hours there are clearly too many folks, who have nothing better to do at work, trying to use the Tracker and it has now crashed. OUTSTANDING!

The overall picture is that at about 1115 Mad Dog was sighted off of the southern part of the town of Campbell River. At 1124 Mad Dog went flying by the Tyee Pool at Dick Murphy Park in almost perfect conditions for the cat, flat water and 6-8 knots of wind. Slack at the Seymour Check Point is at around 1145. Max Ebb (7.4 knots) is at 1445 which even at human powered speed means they’ll be into Johnstone Straits by about 1500 hours today. The next sound you will hear is the door slamming shut on the fleet on this year’s version of the R2AK.

The big picture is that the weak low we’ve been watching is moving slightly, and I mean very slightly faster, towards the Queen Charlotte Islands. On the Monday morning chart you’ll see this 1010MB low with its attached frontal system starting to push that weak 1028MB high off of northern California out of the way.

By Tuesday morning that frontal system is ever so slightly closer to race area however it is weakening as it runs into that 1025MB high situated over SE Alaska. This will have the effect of dropping wind speeds over the entire race area. Which will have little to no effect on Mad Dog. It will basically be a case of the rich getting richer at this point. Provided of course that MD doesn’t hit something big or break something important.

By Wednesday morning you’ll see the frontal system dissipating and a weak trough of low pressure starting to form over the race area. This will pull the breeze around to the west and the boats that are furthest to the north will benefit the most. MD will be reaching like a bandit and simply accelerating away from the fleet. The potential exists for MD to break the record to Ketchikan.

Ed. Note: Thanks again, Bruce, for the insights.

 

Bruce’s R2AK Weather Brief

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs, Weather 1 Comment
Bruce’s R2AK Weather Brief
37784-X2
Photos by Jan Anderson

A lot of us were surprised at just how fast some of the boats got to Victoria on Thursday in just about perfect conditions. Sunday’s 1200 start will be distinctly different as the wind will be light in the starting area and then build lightly from the west until you turn the corner at Trial Island and or duck inside to avoid the ebb tide. Max ebb at Trial Island will be about 1400 hours at 1.1 knots. Slack will occur around 1630 hours so for the rowers and paddlers it will be a simple matter of working the beach to stay out of the tide and travel the shortest possible distance up through the Islands and then depending upon the tide going through Dodd or False Narrows. The Flood will last until almost midnight so you should make good progress going at least to Nanaimo.

For the sailors, it will be how to get to the breeze in the northern part of the Strait of Georgia the fastest way possible which won’t be easy. It will be an on-the-water call however if you can sail up the inside and get into Trincomali Channel and then catch the flood tide to exit out through Porlier Pass and into the Strait of Georgia, that looks like a real possibility. From there you’ll be dealing with a light to moderate northwesterly and of course the tidal gate at Seymour Narrows. If you’re watching the wind in Johnstone Strait remember that the anemometer readings from Fanny Island at the west end of Hardwicke Island are intermittent and reading about twice the real wind speed. At this point it certainly looks like there won’t be a repeat of the thrash up Johnstone Strait that occurred last year.

The rest of the week doesn’t look too bad as the high off the coast is still not setting up in a very stable shape and there is a weak low pressure system associated with a cutoff upper level low that will make its way towards the BC coast late in the week which should give sailors a great ride north to Ketchikan. Maybe just in time to give sailors a southerly to get through the channel at Bella Bella.

Regardless, it’s going to be interesting to watch the tracker as they get to Campbell River and Seymour Narrows.

Good luck and stay safe.

Ed. Note: The R2AK certainly is not under any radars this year. But it’s great to see that the spirit of the event is still alive and well with many it it clearly for the adventure and not the steak knives. Last year’s thrash was one kind of R2AK while this year’s race promises something completely different. Makes me wonder what the Bieker proa Pure and Wild would do this year. 47700-X2You have to hand it to the Buchans, who reportedly pulled their inboard to make Madrona legal. Not surprising, the first leg was won handily by Mad Dog Racing, the super fast M32 cat. But if last year showed us anything, the best stories are likely to come from the other end of the fleet as they persevere to the north.

Fair winds, all. And I second Bruce’s thoughts on staying safe.  –Kurt Hoehne

 

Bruce’s Weather Brief: Get the Crabbing in Early

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Bruce’s Weather Brief: Get the Crabbing in Early

Pretty hard to fault last weekend with plenty of breeze and very warm temps however we knew it couldn’t last. All in all though this weekend won’t be bad and certainly won’t be a washout. More importantly it’s Leukemia Cup so get out and support this great cause and trust us, it will be a ton of fun. Not too serious racing and you will still have to put on your sunblock.

A few years ago Bruce got to drive the mighty Playstation catamaran. Somehow, they were able to pry his hands off the wheel eventually, but the grin was there for a while longer.
A few years ago Bruce got to drive the mighty Playstation catamaran. Somehow, they were able to pry his hands off the wheel eventually, but the grin was there for a while longer.

The surface charts show the remains of the front that went through last night and new, weak ridge of high pressure establishing itself over the Pacific NW but moving off to the east-northeast on Saturday. For Leukemia Cup this will mean light and variable winds in the early afternoon with an Interbay northerly developing as the days goes on. The rate at which it will develop will depend upon the amount of clearing over downtown Seattle and the therefore the amount of heating. Regardless, it will be fun.

For those of you going crabbing in the north Sound or Admiralty Inlet, get the pots down and up early as it is going to be breezy in the Straits in the late afternoon and early evening. The test fishery is suggesting that this should be another exceptional year for crabbing just be sure to have your shellfish license and mark your card when you catch those big, legal, males.

A couple of interesting features came up on the 96 hour surface chart with the early one showing the promising development of the Pacific High getting up to 1038 MB and becoming rounder and more stable, that’s the good news, especially for the Vic Maui and Pacific Cup Teams. More so for the Pacific Cup teams as they could almost sail a great circle course. It would be a little tougher for the Vic-Maui crews because they would have to contend with another one of those pesky upper level lows showing up over the Pacific Northwest. The upper air charts are showing some pretty large curves in the jet stream which means that this feature won’t last long. Mother Nature doesn’t like expending unnecessary energy. Needless to say, we are keeping an eye on this.

Have a great weekend, and be safe out there on the water. Also, thank you for the notes and questions you’ve sent me, excellent observations!

 

 

Bruce’s Brief for Swiftsure 2016

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Bruce’s Brief for Swiftsure 2016

What a challenge this has been for the weather forecasters this week with none of the models coming into agreement about what is going to happen this weekend. The latest problem is that there is a new low pressure system that has formed off of the north end of Vancouver Island. It’s weak and not going to last very long, just long enough to make things interesting on Swiftsure. Its attached frontal system will drag across the NW on Saturday with the post frontal system taking a while to set up.

The good news is that we have an ebb tide for the start and a fairly good southeasterly breeze which will at least get us out of the starting area and through Race Passage at a fairly good clip. By 1100 to 1200 things will start to deteriorate as the front will have passed and the breeze ( what there is left of it) will start to get squirelly. Some models have it evaporating in the mid-Straits and staying that way until after midnight. One model has the wind evaporating at 1200 in the mid-Straits but then filling in from the west at 4-6 knots at around 1700 hours which would at least give you some light air beating out to the mark. Once you round the mark it will be a race to see who can get back down the Straits and into more wind. It won’t build from the west however the wind will increase in velocity the further down the Straits you get.

Then there are those pesky tides.

0750 Slack

1228 Max Ebb                        4.0 knots

1416 Slack

1922 Max Flood          4.5 knots

2248 Slack

0225 Max Ebb                        4.1

0706 Slack

0816 Max Flood          .3 knots

0950 Slack

1337 Max Ebb                        3.5

1715 Slack

2019 Max Flood          4.0

2334 Slack

 

As I said, getting out won’t be a problem. It will be getting back that will be interesting with the combination of light air and LOTS of ebb. As you can see, on Sunday morning you have a very small window 0700 to 1000 hrs to get back before the ebb starts rolling again. The later you are coming down the Straits, the more wind you are likely to have so you can work the beach as you approach the Race and then just fight it out.

The keys to this year’s race will be making the most of the east-southeasterly at the start, then sailing rhumb line towards the mouth of the Straits. As the wind begins to clock in the mid-afternoon, work to the south of the rhumb line to be in a position to pick up the incoming westerly. It’s here that the real separation will occur in the fleet as the boats with the best drivers and the best trimmers will move to the front of the fleet. It won’t be easy but hard work will pay big dividends. Have the barber haulers ready and be prepared to go back and forth between the genoa (or wind seeker) and the kite. Weight to leeward or as we say, “All dogs in the house!” The night fighters will make out as trimming going downwind at night is tough. Navigators will have to keep you on the favored board and be using the 7×50 bino’s to keep you in the breeze.

Naviguessors will also have to be logging wind reports as well as the pressure readings to try and get a feel about just how fast the high pressure will be returning and with it, the westerly. Boats with the Starpath ultra sensitive barometer will benefit.

Be safe, have a great race and with any kind of luck I’ll have a post race summary for you on Tuesday.

Ed. Note: Thanks again Bruce. To our readers, please share the info and get people to visit the site! Thanks.

 

Bruce’s Weekend Weather Brief

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Bruce Hedrick usually posts for a specific sailboat race. This week we’re lucky to have an overview for the sailish, er, Salish sea. He’s watching closely in anticipation for Swiftsure and, later, Vic-Maui. Take him up on his offer to answer questions, he loves it. Just post at the bottom of this post under comments, and we’ll get him to answer you! – Ed.

It has been yet another very interesting week for weather in the Pacific Northwest with gorgeous sunshine ( in places), snow in the Olympics and Cascades , and heavy rain (in places). In other words, pretty typical springtime weather.

Looking at the surface charts one feature that really came to light this week was the setting up of the Pacific High which certainly should have the Vic-Maui and Pacific Cup teams licking their chops. Running the numbers for a start today, the Vic-Maui big boats could well have set a new elapsed time record. The same would be true for the Pacific Cup. For a brief period the High got up to 1038 millibars and was very round. Those two features tend to indicate the onset of some stability for the high. The bad news; it’s pretty early for that and there’s a lot of time before the start of either race. It definitely bears watching.

IMG_0476
What navigators do when nobody’s looking.

The weather for this weekend shows that we still have a weak but persistent low pressure system just sort meandering over the Northwest. This will tend to result in a mixed bag of conditions. For the central Sound on Saturday it looks like a perfect day for sailing with 10-15 knots of southerly for most of the day. What the Vashon Island racers wouldn’t have given for that last weekend! Swiftsure racers should be watching the weather in the Straits and note a fairly typical pattern of light air in the morning and a very breezy afternoon and evening with 25-30 knots from the west. Plan accordingly and at least be thinking about how you would deal with that on your boat. The long range forecast doesn’t look like that much wind for Memorial Day however it’s still a long ways out for any kind of accuracy.

Sunday shows yet another day of consistent southerlies in the Sound and a slightly weaker westerly filling down the Straits by late afternoon/early evening. Showers will be around so don’t leave the foulies at home and as always, keeps a weather eye out at all times.

Also, if you have any questions feel free to send them in and I’ll try to answer them.

Have a great weekend.

 

Bruce’s Brief for Vashon Island

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Bruce’s Brief for Vashon Island

Almost the same story as last week since we really should be racing today. The drones were out early and showed solid northerly from Shilshole almost all the way to the bottom end of Vashon. It will not be the same tomorrow.

A glance at the surface charts shows a very interesting scenario with a series of weak, dissipating, slow-moving low pressure systems surrounding the Pacific Northwest. There are also weakening frontal systems attached to the lows that are offshore however they are dissipating as well. So while we have a lovely northerly today by early Saturday that will change to a southerly. The models (once again) are not converging so how this transition will occur and how it will affect us is not clear at this time. Oh well, it’s sailboat racing in Puget Sound.

The tides however will be there and they won’t be bad as the first quarter moon is today which mean neap tides, not a lot of volume exchange.

Tides at West Point
0742 Slack
0927 Max Flood .2
1140 Slack
1506 Max Ebb .6
1835 Slack
2139 Max Flood .7

Tides at the Narrows
0732 Slack
0943 Max Flood 1.8
1238 Slack
1606 Max Ebb 2.2
1916 Slack
2214 Max Flood 3.2

As far as wind goes, one model has us starting in a dying northerly transitioning to a 10 knot southwesterly by noon to 1400 hrs. The other model has us starting in a due southerly of 10 knots which fades as we approach Pr. Robinson. All of which makes sense if you look at the surface charts. They send weather men to the Pacific Northwest to teach them humility, now you can see why.

By mid afternoon the models agree that we should have at least 8-10 knots of south-southwesterly breeze which will make for a nice run up Colvos to the finish. Both models have the big boats finishing the long course by about 1730 hours after a 0900 hrs start in very light air.
Before you leave the house check the Ferry Weather and the wind at Pt. No Point, West Point, and Point Robinson. Once you’re on the boat start logging the pressure reports and the station reports to try and get a feel for how this is changing.

Saturday will be the day that tacticians will earn their keep as they will have to keep trying to deal with a weather situation that is in a constant state of flux. For the crew, the trimmers will be working their tails off while the rest of the boat will be watching what is going on around them. Have the barber haulers rigged and be ready to go to a kite at any time. Wind seekers could be big money makers in the transition zones.

Have a great race.

Bruce’s Brief for Race to the Straits 2016

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs, Racing, Weather 1 Comment
Bruce’s Brief for Race to the Straits 2016

As they say, you should have been here yesterday. It’s too bad they couldn’t have started the race today and then sailed back from Pt Townsend on Saturday. Would have had great breeze both days. Oh well, that’s sailboat racing in Puget Sound.

As you can see from the surface charts we’ve got a nice ridge of high pressure. However, there is also a cold front headed our way which will break up the ridge on Saturday night and keep things light until Sunday afternoon.

We’re just running into that same problem in that the best day for breeze is the first day the high pressure ridge rebuilds over the Pacific Northwest and that would be today. It will be cranking in the Straits (35+ at Race Rocks by mid afternoon Sat) and Admiralty Inlet today, tomorrow, and Sunday. Not so much from Point No Point south. So plan accordingly in terms of safety equipment. Since you’ll be going across Admiralty from Double Bluff to Marrowstone on a starboard tack, think about hoisting the headsail for the start in the port groove so you can do an inside set with the smaller jib when you need to change down.

The other problem is the tides and with a new moon today, which means Spring tides, the tidal flow is also going to be cranking. Good for Saturday not so good on Sunday.

Tidal Current in Admiralty Inlet

0525      Slack

0921      Max Ebb                 4.2 knots

1257      Slack

1603      Max Flood            3.4 knots

1921      Slack

Sunday

0606      Slack

1007      Max Ebb                 4.2 knots

1343      Slack

1652      Max Flood            3.4 knots

2014      Slack

 

Day 1 – Seattle to Port Townsend

The first start is just before 0800 hours and there should be a northerly breeze of 5-10 knots and with the ebb tide and a staggered start your plan should be (if you’re starting by yourself) to start on port at the Hamburger and head to the beach at Meadow Point. Tack to starboard and work your way towards the west by Jeff Head. This will keep you in the strongest part of the ebb. Once on the west side of the Sound stay in the strongest part of the ebb by watching your SOG and COG. Don’t get too close to the beach to the west and don’t get to the other side of the Possession Bar to the east.

Your next challenge will be the approach to the buoy at Double Bluff as the tide can really rip very close to the buoy. While from a distance it may appear you’ve left yourself some room, plan that there will be more ebb velocity the closer you get to the mark, and if it’s a warm day as forecast, there may be less wind in there as well. Don’t forget to take your GPS time as you pass the mark, and don’t forget to submit it when you finish, it’s a requirement.

(Click to enlarge)

After Double Bluff hold port tack as long as you can and then tack to starboard and get to the other side of Admiralty since the ebb lasts slightly longer on the west side. This will also put you in position to take advantage of the back eddies that occur up Marrowstone as the flood builds.

If you want to find out what the wind is doing at Port Townsend an hour before you’re going to get there go to https://rainwise.net/weather/bruce98136 . It’s my weather station on the north side of Diamond Point at the very mouth of Discovery Bay, looking right across at Protection Island.

After rounding Marrowstone Light tack to starboard to get yourself out of the flood tide and into the bay and flat water. Tack when you can lay the finish at R “2”.

Day 2 – Port Townsend to Seattle

Sunday will be somewhat more challenging as it will be a staggered downwind start from Port Townsend after a traditionally rowdy Saturday night party. You should have some wind (8-10 knots). The problem will be dealing with the ebb tide. There are more back eddies on the Whidbey shore, the flood starts first over there and boats have had success going over there in past races. The problem this year is that there will be less wind along the Whidbey shore. If you can work your way down Marrowstone and delay crossing over to Double Bluff, that should work better.

After Double Bluff you’ll want to work back to the Point No Point shore to take advantage of the stronger flood tide. After Point No Point it is going to get a little squirrelly until the northwesterly settles in late in the afternoon. When that happens sail your angles to the finish.

Have a great time, and be safe.

Ed. Note: Thanks, Bruce, for sharing!