Bruce’s Briefs

Bruce’s Brief’s: 3 & 4 June, SYC Blake Island Race

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Bruce’s Brief’s: 3 & 4 June, SYC Blake Island Race

After Swiftsure, this week certainly went by fast and now we’re racing again tomorrow. No wonder the Mrs isn’t exactly pleased. I guess I might be a bit behind on my lawn and garden maintenance program… I don’t know why however I think tomorrow on the water, any water, will still be a lot more fun than getting dirty in the garden.

Speaking of Swiftsure, last weekend was certainly proof that when there is little to no gradient just about anything can happen. This weekend in the Straits will be much different as we’ll have an onshore flow and as the ridge of high pressure builds on Sunday by the evening it will be really cranking from the west.

For the last of the Tri-Island Series, not so much. There will be wind, and there will be the sunshine so it will still be a great day on the water. Just don’t forget the sunblock before you leave the house! The other plus is the tides which will be favorable and there won’t be much of them.

Tidal Currents at West Point

0654      Slack

1036      Max Flood            .71 knots

1321      Slack

1500      Max Ebb                 .17 knots

1818      Slack

 

The first gun is supposed to be around 0900 hours however if you look at the surface charts you’ll notice the remains of a trough moving to the east and unfortunately that will leave a large gap in the pressure gradient. This will result in a light downslope, drainage breeze from the east in the morning. With some clearing and no gradient, this could be the perfect set-up for the Swihart Effect which says the northerly will start down the Sound once the flood tide gets rolling. If the clearing continues, look for the northerly to continue to build through the day.

 

As is typical for the Blake Island Race, you can pick your poison deciding which way you are going to go around the Island. In almost all cases it’s best to leave the Island to starboard especially when you have a flood tide. This is because of the ebb that continues to roll up Colvos and the back side of the Island. The flood may not get all the way to the bottom of the Island, however, there will be more wind on the east side of the Island.

If the breeze is northerly in the starting area, you’ll probably do a starboard set just don’t go west too long. Before the start watch the flag at the West Point lighthouse and if it’s showing any easterly at all plan a gybe to port to be at the West Point Buoy. If on port you’re aiming at Alki, hold that gybe until you get lifted to Spuds Fish and Chips, then gybe and aim at the Island. Just don’t get too close to the Island especially at the south end. See the picture. If you swing wide enough at the south end you’ll carry the northerly into the light zone. Just be ready to smoothly transition into what little breeze there will be on the backside of the Island. Headsail up, in the starboard groove, spinnaker down, all without changing course and hopefully without slowing much.

Since you’ll be swept along with the ebb up the backside of the Island, sail the favored tack, usually starboard and don’t get too close to the Island. By the same token don’t too far over to the Manchester shore as it will get light in there as well. Work your way up to Bainbridge Island since the current tends to set from west to east along that south shore. Once you get to Restoration hold on to port tack. If you are aimed at Four Mile Rock, just keep going right up to Magnolia Bluff. If you end up being headed below(east of) Four Mile, take a short hitch until you can once again be above Four Mile. Really watch your depth sounder coming into there as it gets very shallow, very quickly. If the breeze has built as you’ve come across you’ll want to do your tack change here going from the light #1 to the heavy #1going from port to starboard tack. You should be right under the Bluff and it will be puffy so the mainsheet/ traveler person is going to be working very hard to keep the boat on its feet.

Once you clear West Point hold on to starboard tack until you can lay the entrance to the Ship Canal. Of course, this also depends on where the finish line is located. You’d like to get close to the entrance so it will be easier to call the tack to the finish, finishing on starboard and probably in more breeze than the boats on the outside. There will also be a nice push from the current coming out of the Ship Canal.

Be safe, use lots of sunblock, and have a great time.

Bruce’s Weather Brief for May 27-29 and Swiftsure Classic!

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Bruce’s Weather Brief for May 27-29 and Swiftsure Classic!

What a week it has been in the Straits of Juan de Fuca. Tuesday saw a steady 40 at Race Rocks and Smith Island had a gust to 59. Yikes. That is not fun sailing, that is survival or better yet, just stay at the dock and don’t put yourself or your vessel in harms way. How things can change. Yesterday, for the delivery up to Victoria, it was for the most part a mill pond across the Straits with even a light, warm easterly in places.

As usual, the most predictable part of this weekend will be the tidal currents in Race Passage and they won’t be insignificant.

Tidal Current Race Passage

Saturday

0749    Max Ebb         6.7 knots

1151    Slack

1436    Max Flood       6.1 knots

1818    Slack

2146    Max Ebb         4.9 knots

Sunday

0110    Slack

0253    Max Flood       1.8 knots

0433    Slack

0843    Max Ebb         6.6 knots

1237    Slack

1527    Max Flood       5.9 knots

1912    Slack

2042    Max Ebb         5.0 knots

Kudos to the Race Committee for changing the start order because the JdF and Flattery fleets are going to need all the help they can get to make it to the Race before the flood starts. As you can see from the surface charts there is simply no gradient over the Pacific Northwest, nor will there be until later this coming week. We are caught between two relatively weak high pressure systems and with the jet stream (see 500MB charts) well north of us, there’s nothing to move this situation along.

This is also reflected in the fact that the models used for forecasting are not very much in agreement especially after tomorrow afternoon. This is where being your own weather forecaster will be helpful and that’s going to start by logging the pressure readings, wind direction and wind strength over the race course. This mornings readings showed the pressure at Forks at 1015.1 with the pressure at Bellingham at 1015.5 which tells us a couple of things. 1. The wind will be light in the Straits and from the east, never a very stable situation. And 2, sure enough 2 knots from the East at Race Rocks, 2 knots from WNW at Sheringham, and 4 knots from ESE at the JA Buoy at the mouth of the Straits. As the land masses heat up over the course of the day, this will draw a westerly down the Straits with the most wind (15-20 knots) being in the eastern part of the Straits, Race Rocks to Smith Island. This pattern may repeat itself tomorrow. Generally speaking, the first day of this pattern is the best chance of good breeze. Each day in succession, the breeze will fill later and not be as strong.

Most models show light air over the starting area tomorrow morning which will make getting through the Race before the flood starts at 1130-1200hrs a challenge. The flood starts first on the Vancouver Island side so if you get through the Race with the last of the ebb, get to the US side as fast as you can. If the pattern holds, we’ll start in a drainage or downslope ENE which will probably be less than 5 knots. Clearly with all that ebb tide you will not want to swept over the start line early as getting back might be next to impossible.

The other part about getting to the US side of the Straits is that when the westerly does fill, it comes down the US side first, with Canadian side staying light. Two of the models show the westerly filling between 1500-1800 hrs. This will make this a long race.

How long you might ask? If we run the GFS model for Crossfire, certainly one of the fastest boats out there, it shows them completing the Hein Bank course in 42 hours. Don’t kill the messenger……

Around the rest of the Northwest it will simply be a great weekend to be on the water so load the family, the BBQ, and enjoy yourselves.

Ed. Note: Bruce is giving a weather presentation at 16:30 this afternoon. We’re trying to find the location right now, when we do we’ll update this post. UPDATE: The in-person brief at 16:30 is at the Strathcona Hotel!

 

 

 

 

Bruce’s Weather Brief for May 19-21 and J/24 Intergalactics

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Bruce’s Weather Brief for May 19-21 and J/24 Intergalactics

It’s going to be a great weekend to have a power boat……unfortunately we are right in a changeover point from our long cold, wet weather to a more reasonable late spring. The problem is still that pesky upper-level low-pressure system that, because of a meandering jet stream (see the 500MB Charts), isn’t going anywhere very quickly. As a result, there will be large gaps in the pressure gradient with a thermal northerly not filling in until late in the afternoon on both Friday and Saturday. Sunday there is a good chance of a more reasonable northerly starting at around 1000 to 1100 hrs and continuing most of the day. Perhaps 10-12 knots at the most.

If the J/24 Nationals Race Committee is willing to keep you out there until 1600-1700 hours Friday and Saturday, there could be a reasonable amount of breeze, 10-15 knots. If there is more clearing earlier in the day, it might fill down a bit earlier. Not holding my breath.

I wish I had better news for the sailors, however, if you’re a powerboater, it’s going to be pretty great just about everywhere except for Friday afternoon and Saturday afternoon. In the Eastern end of the Straits from Sheringham to Smith Island, you could see 25-35 knots of westerly as it funnels down.

Enjoy what sun there might be and the fact that as the jet stream continues north, it will get warmer.

Have a great weekend.

 

Bruce’s Weather Brief for May 13-14, Mother’s Day and SYC Vashon Island Race

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Bruce’s Weather Brief for May 13-14, Mother’s Day and SYC Vashon Island Race

It certainly won’t exactly be the nicest of weekends but Sunday will be the better of the two days. The problem is a very persistent upper-level low-pressure system which is just not moving very much and will keep cool, unstable air coming ashore all weekend. Take a look at the attached Langley Doppler from this afternoon and then compare it to tomorrow morning before you head out.

For now, check the current surface chart and the current 500MB chart to get a feel for what is actually going on. As you can see from tomorrow’s chart, the surface gradient will have opened up and the remains of a weakened frontal system will be approaching the coast. The really cool feature about that chart is the Pacific High which is looking very summer like. About the right pressure, 1040 MB, and in very much the right place. The only problem may be that this is a little early in the summer cycle for this to be occurring. If however, Comanche were starting TransPac tomorrow, she would absolutely blitz the record. We’ll see.

The models have come together nicely for tomorrow so we’ll roll the dice and put this out there. As always, check all your resources before you leave the house tomorrow morning. Cool, unstable air coming ashore doesn’t make for a tremendously accurate forecast.

Tidal Currents

West Point

0618      Slack

0800      Max ebb                .43 knots

1042      Slack

1606      Max flood             1.14 knots

1924      Slack

Narrows north end

0700      Slack

1118      Max ebb                3.98 knots

1430      Slack

1654      Max flood             3.95 knots

2054      Slack

There should be enough wind to allow the Vashon Island Race to start on time which is about an hour after max ebb, we still need to remember that the ebb will extend because of the amount of rain today and what will be flowing out of the Duwamish. There will probably still be a localized SE breeze at Shilshole, however at West Point it will probably be time to think about getting to the west anticipating a shift to the WSW as the day goes on.

As usual, in these conditions, it may get a bit fluky from the north end of Vashon to Pt. Robinson where, if we’re lucky, the WSW will finally start to build to 8-12 knots. You’ll want to be careful to not get too close to the Vashon shore as the wind will be coming over the Island and may not touch down until well offshore. At the bottom end of the Island stay out a ways to avoid the eastward flowing current that pretty much always run there. Get into the ebb up Colvos Passage and don’t get too close to either shore. Drivers and spinnaker trimmers will be working very hard all the way up Colvos. This will not be “Miller time”.

From the north end of Colvos to West Point, the wind will probably back from the SW to the S so you’ll need to anticipate the gybe and your approach to the finish. Watch gybing in north of West Point as this can get light from West Point to the Ship Canal.

For those of you going cruising this weekend, no real major issues of too much breeze except in the eastern end of the Straits and the San Juan Islands in the early Sunday morning hours when you should be at anchor. Just make sure you’ve got plenty of scope out and plenty of room to swing.

Have a great weekend and do something nice for mom!

Bruce’s Cinco de Mayo Weekend Weather Brief, Race to the Straits and NWISA Team Racing at Sail Sand Point

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Bruce’s Cinco de Mayo Weekend Weather Brief, Race to the Straits and NWISA Team Racing at Sail Sand Point

You’re probably getting tired of me pontificating about how interesting the weather has been but yesterday was truly exceptional. The team at the National Weather Service Office at Sand Point deserves a hearty well done for doing an exceptional job yesterday by getting it exactly right with just the right amount of warnings and none of the drama, just the facts. It was great to go back and forth from the computer to window and watch this event unfold.

May 4 Radar

To quantify it, in the past five years we’ve had six warnings. Yesterday we had EIGHT! I’ve attached the Doppler Radar from 1535 yesterday afternoon and it was certainly colorful and if you look closely, there are three watch boxes. In addition, at one point in the early evening when the largest system was moving over Olympia, the Doppler was showing a rainfall rate of 20.57”/hour. Impressive. CYC Seattle did the right thing keeping the fleets off the water last night. Lightning can be a woefully unpredictable critter and it was simply not worth taking a chance.

Unfortunately (or fortunately, if you’re a powerboater), we’ll pay a post-frontal price this weekend. As you can see from this mornings chart, the front is just over us and off of San Fran we have, if you’re thinking about TransPac, a nicely developing Pacific High. It’s about medium strength, however, the real key is that it is starting to round up nicely. The rounder it is, the more stable it is. The bad news would be that if we were starting TransPac tomorrow, the first three days would be a real thrash. 30-40 knots of NNW as we leave the coast. That would really sort the fleet out in a hurry. I digress.

As I was about to say, in the usual scheme of things (if there is such a thing) in the Pacific Northwest, after frontal passage the first day the ridge of high-pressure establishes itself is the best day for wind from the north. As each day passes, the amount of breeze decreases. The problem for this weekend will be that persistent trough of low pressure over southern BC which will prevent a ridge of high pressure from developing.

For the sailors, this will mean a light and variable southerly for the start of the day. A northerly will develop however the timing of that will be tough as it will depend upon the amount of clearing we have over the area. The earlier the clearing, the sooner the land will start to warm and the sooner the breeze will start filling down the Sound. In the absence of a pressure gradient, it may come down with the flood tide, the Swihart Effect. So let’s look at the tides for the weekend, which will have a profound effect on the Race to the Straits.

Admiralty Inlet Tidal Current at Bush Point

Saturday

0630      Max Ebb                 2.92 knots

1024      Slack

1248      Max Flood            1.4 knots

1524      Slack

1848      Max Ebb                 2.16 knots

 

Sunday

0712      Max Ebb                 3.12 knots

1106      Slack

1336      Max Flood            1.75 knots

1630      Slack

1942      Max ebb                2.17 knots

 

Since the RTS is a reverse start with handicaps applied at the start, the early starters on Saturday will have more positive tide but less wind. Since the northerly will fill down the west side of the Sound first, the key will be to simply use what wind there is to aim at Double Bluff, the first and only mark of the course. As you work your way to the north and you start running into flood, tend more to the west beach to get out of the tide. At Pt No Point it will be just go on across to Useless Bay and the mark at Double Bluff. The later in the day, the more wind you’ll have to deal with the flood.

The trade-off going north from Double Bluff will be to work the Whidbey Island back eddies before going across to Marrowstone where the ebb will be starting first. You would like to hit the Marrowstone shore so you can also be on the inside of the port tack lifts as you work your way towards the Marrowstone Light. After Marrowstone if you are in the ebb, watch the Cog and Sog and stay on the north side of the Midchannel Bank to stay in the ebb just don’t overstand the finish line by being swept too far to the west.

Sunday it looks like the later starters will have the advantage of both more wind and less tide. The early starters will have to fight the ebb at Marrowstone and then work their way across to the Whidbey Shore. It should be a nice sail back to the finish at Shilshole after Double Bluff remembering that the flood will start first on the west side of the Sound and be slightly stronger there. The wind will be fairly even across the Sound so the angles will be key, gybing on lifts, covering your competition and watching where the smart guys are going.

For the Lake sailors, the breeze may take a bit longer to fill at Lake Washington but it will get there. Since its Team Racing, it will be more about Team tactics than going the right way. One thing to watch for in the mornings on the Lake is that the breeze may start out from the west-northwest and from there it will clock to the north-northwest. A small change but you might be able to break a cover with it.

Have a great weekend and enjoy the improving weather.

Ed. Note: If you’ve never seen team racing, it’s amazing to watch, and you’ll be able to see it from shore at Sail Sand Point both Saturday and Sunday. Be impressed by the skills of our regional high school sailors. Also on Saturday 11-3  SSP hosts the Youth Sailing Open House put together by The Sailing Foundation. 

Bruce’s Brief for Weather April 29-30 and Protection Island Race

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Bruce’s Brief for Weather April 29-30 and Protection Island Race
It’s a ways from Seattle to Protection Island

The bad news is that we are going to have more rain, as if we haven’t had enough already. The good news, especially for the longest race in the Tri-Island Series, is we are going to have wind as long as you finish the Long Course before about 0200 hrs Sunday morning. The other good news is that for the most part the tides will be with us. The really good news, especially for the folks going on TransPac, is that some semblance of a Pacific High is starting to form and the jet stream is slowly and inexorably moving north. Summer will eventually happen.

Tides for Admiralty Inlet off of Bush Point

Saturday

0500 Max Flood 1.29 knts

0706 Slack

1112 Max Ebb.   3.89 knts

1448 Slack

1800 Max Flood 3.13 knts

2124 Slack

Sunday

0024 Max Ebb   2.46 knts

0354 Slack

0554 Max Flood 1.02 knts

0754 Slack

1200 Max Ebb   3.62 knts

The surface charts show a weak high pressure system off the coast that will be pushed out of the way by a weak frontal system that will make it’s way onshore over Saturday and into Sunday morning. Following a typical pattern, the pre-frontal southerly will be light, 6-8 knots, in the starting area and then build as the day goes on especially in the northern part of the race course. By late Saturday afternoon and into the early evening we could see 20-25-knots of SSE so plan ahead with safety harnesses and jack lines rigged before you leave the dock, as well as starboard tack barber haulers. Once the front passes, the post frontal westerly will fill down the Straits creating a light air convergence zone from Pt. Townsend to Kingston, in other words finish early.

You should be able to sail pretty much a course that gets you to the Island with a minimal number of gybes. You might also want to think about getting a warm meal into the crew while you’re going downwind because it will be really lumpy coming home and you’re going to want people hiking all the time for the beat home. As you sail up Admiralty Inlet towards the Island if you want to find out what’s happening on the water between Discovery Bay and Protection Island just go to www.windalert.com/spot/161444. This is a private weather station located on the north side of Diamond Point. Think also about getting set up for the beat home with the headsail hoisted in the port groove because you’ll have long starboard tacks and short port tacks.

Going around the Island for those of you with deep drafts remember the Dallas Bank extends a long way to the north of Protection Island and because it’ shallow in places there can be a lot of kelp out there. This time of the year it shouldn’t be too bad but it will pay to keep a sharp lookout.

From the Island to Pt Townsend, it should be a close reach and generally speaking the water will be flatter along the west side from Pt. Townsend to Pt. No Point. On starboard tack the puffs will be lifts however if it starts to get light on the approach to Pt. No Point remember there’s a reason why it’s called Skunk Bay, don’t get in too close.

From Point No Point to the finish if the barometer is rising the wind will be slowly shifting from the SSE to the SSW which will mean staying to the west so you will be on the inside of the lift for the approach to the finish.

Be safe, have a great race.

 

Ed. Notes: Thanks Bruce, for taking time from your Mexican holiday and putting down the margarita long enough to to the Brief. And to all those racers, please help me with post-race coverage by sending me anecdotes, photos or video links. Thanks.

Bruce’s Brief for April 22-23 and CYC’s PSSR

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Bruce’s Brief for April 22-23 and CYC’s PSSR
Wind Speed/Air Pressure at West Point

If only we were racing today…..but we are not, so we might as well deal with it. It’s just difficult to look out at the Sound and see 8-knots from the north with a temperature of 55⁰F and not dream about racing or cruising in those conditions. OK, the wind chill is still around 46⁰F so it’s not exactly summer-like yet. It does, however, give us some hope for July 5th…….

The surface chart for today, 21 April, shows us the inevitable for this upcoming weekend. We’ve got both rain and wind headed towards us for both days and well into next week. As we said last week, the long range weather has us as being wetter and cooler than normal and with the jet stream staying well south of us, it is going to stay that way. Don’t kill the messenger.

The surface chart for tomorrow, 22 April, shows a moderately healthy front aimed right at us. The timing of frontal passage is still very unclear. The coastal buffer zone (CBZ) will once again have an impact on timing however it won’t be as dramatic as last weekend where it totally blocked the front and sent it off to the northwest and away from here. The key will be for you to check barometric pressure trends along the coast and inland reporting stations. It’s already starting to drop today so it will happen. After that, check the wind directions and wind velocities around the Sound, including the Washington State ferries on the Bainbridge and Edmonds-Kingston runs. The pre-frontal breeze will be southeasterly, while if the pressure is rising and the wind is out of the southwest, that would be post-frontal. It could, however, be a mixed bag as the front interacts with the CBZ. As per usual, expect stronger breeze along the coast and in the eastern Straits and the San Juan Islands.

That doesn’t necessarily mean light air in the race area off of Shilshole. It could mean 15-20 knots from the SSW in the morning backing off around midday to 5-15-knots from the south and then filling back in from the SW at 15-20-knots around mid-afternoon before slowly backing off towards sunset.

Sunday looks lighter however as the front has passed expect a more consistent onshore flow to develop over the course of the day which could have the breeze build slowly into the 15-20-knot range from the SW over the central and south Sound. The convergence zone will start in the north Sound around Port Townsend as strong westerly fills from Race Rocks to the East. The CZ will slowly work its way south to Edmonds and north Seattle by the early evening on Sunday.

Tidal Current at West Point
Saturday
0754 Slack
1124 Max Flood .82
1418 Slack
1600 Max Ebb .3
1936 Slack

Sunday
0842 Slack
1212 Max Flood .96
1506 Slack
1648 Max Ebb .38
2106 Slack

I have also included the graph of current velocity over time as it shows a distinctly non-sinusoidal curve so be aware especially with the flood being stronger than the ebb in a predominately southerly breeze situation. A little unusual so watch the COG and SOG.

Have a great weekend but be prepared for just about anything!

Bruce’s Weather Brief for April 15-16

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Yet another interesting week of weather in the Pacific Northwest will wrap up with what could be the nicest weekend so far this year, especially on Easter Sunday.

The race tracker shows the fleet making its way west at about 1315 to Ballenas Islands, with Kinetic in the lead doing 12.8 knots.

The racers up in Vancouver for the South Straits got started this morning in what will probably turn out to be a bit of a slow race as the pressure gradient is widening over the area. Tracker Link.

After all the rain yesterday, punctuated with squalls that brought some rain, hail, and wind, a high-pressure ridge is starting to build over the area. Having said that, when you look at the Langley Doppler Radar you will see some significant rain still headed our way this afternoon. However, once that blows through, there won’t be much more for the rest of the weekend.

The strange part, but then again it is spring in the Pacific Northwest so expect anything, will be that while it will be generally light wind over most of the area, expect some breeze in the Straits on Saturday which will come down the Sound later on Saturday. The strange part is that the central sound will have breeze while it remains light in the North, South, and Eastern Straits. By breeze, we could see 15-20 knots from the north pretty much all day on Sunday.

Langley Doppler April 14

As you can see from the 500MB charts, the jet stream is still well south of us which will keep temperatures lower than normal over the area and keep the door open for more rain to wander in over the course of the coming week.

Enjoy the weekend!

Ed. Note: Bruce pulled double duty this week, doing a special Brief for the South Straits racers and today’s look at the weather for the rest of us. We’ll have a wrap on South Straits as soon as we can pull it together and get some reports from our Canadian friends. 

 

 

 

Bruce’s Weather Brief for Southern Straits Race. Pleasant and Cold, but Finish before 1700.

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Bruce’s Weather Brief for Southern Straits Race. Pleasant and Cold, but Finish before 1700.

The good news is that the forecast models are actually starting to converge and looks like this could be a relatively pleasant race. What a difference a week or a day can make! If we had started last Friday by Friday night some boats might have been seeking shelter from 40+ knots. If we had started this morning we would now be in 30+ knots at Sisters.

As you can see from the surface charts we do have another front that will be passing over us tomorrow probably sometime between 1200 and 1400 hrs. This is a cold front so make sure you are going to be prepared for some wet and cold especially tomorrow night. Not below freezing but with the wind chill you might be just above freezing, 5⁰-8⁰ C.

For the start, expect 5-15 knots from the SSE. As you work your way west out of English Bay and towards Halibut Bank the wind will begin to back very slightly and there will be some topographical compression resulting in higher wind speeds, not excessive but in the 12-18 knot range as you approach Sangster and Lasqueti Island. This will not last long as the gradient will begin to ease with frontal passage. Since the low-pressure system will be slowly curving away from the coast, the wind won’t completely evaporate but it will ease.

As the post-frontal wind comes down the Straits of Juan de Fuca it will curve up into the race course bringing slightly more wind to the west side of the course from Entrance Island south. North of Entrance, the mountains on Vancouver Island will begin to act a block keeping the breeze lighter near the Island. As the sun goes down know where your competitors and mark them with the handbearing compass to see who goes light where.

By 2200 to 0400 the breeze will tend to be from the SSW to SW in the 8-12 knot range. After around 0400 the breeze will drop consistently over the course down to the 5-10 knot range. After 0900 on Saturday, the breeze may drop even more, just in time to coincide with the building ebb near the finish line. YUK! By late the morning, we will start to see the breeze back to the SE and become a little spotty, especially from Halibut back to the finish. From about 1300 until about 1500 there will be a slight increase in the breeze but dropping again and then severely glassing off around 1700. Watch for the drainage breeze as you get closer to the finish.

Above all else try to finish before 1700 hrs on Saturday.

Editor’s Note: I’ll do a wrapup after the race, and would love to include some first-hand tales as I won’t be making the trip. Please send stories (long or short), snapshots and video links to kurt@meadowpointpub.com. Thanks! Good luck to all.

Bruce’s Brief: Storm Arcing away from the Coast, Small Boat PSSR and early South Straits Preview

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Bruce’s Brief: Storm Arcing away from the Coast, Small Boat PSSR and early South Straits Preview

Certainly another interesting day out there and real fun for the weather geeks. As we said yesterday, this looked like just another winter weather storm, slightly elevated wind speeds but not as strong as the TV and radio folks would like to have us believe. As I write, the barometer here as well as in the Straits, and along the coast has started to go up which should indicate that this low-pressure system has started to arc away from the coast. In some cases rising rapidly which can be as bad as falling rapidly so we’ll watch those stations. The coastal buffer zone once again is helping to diminish wind speeds over the interior of Western Washington. Note the chart for Cape Elizabeth, which I will try to update before sending this out. I’ve also included the Langley Hill Doppler radar image because you can really see where the low-pressure is centered off our coast, especially if you run the “Reflectivity Loop.” It is clearly moving away from the coast.

As you can see from the surface charts everything is pointing towards a post frontal kind of weekend. I think given the option I probably wouldn’t head out this afternoon and instead just get the boat ready to go tomorrow, late morning. For the north, central, and south Sound expect 15-25 knots for south-southwesterly until mid to late afternoon. Before going anywhere, check the station reports on your VHF. Remember that the definition of heavy weather is the point at which you don’t feel comfortable with you, your crew or your vessel being able to handle the conditions. No harm in just spending a comfortable weekend at the dock getting caught up on boat chores or reading those owner’s manuals.

By Sunday things will ease off in the Sound however along the coast we’ll start to feel the effects of yet another low-pressure system headed our way. Check the 48 hour surface chart. More lows are out there however they are starting to weaken and as we saw this week, the closer they get to our coastal buffer zone, the weaker they become. There is some hope for better weather after all. The downside is in the 500MB charts which have the jet stream well to the south of us which is actually going to allow more moisture into California and keep us cooler and wetter than normal.

For PSSR at Shilshole, the boats and crews that like breezy conditions are going to love Saturday. The challenge will be where CYC sets the start-finish line. That’s because even though the conditions are post-frontal, in other words, a southwesterly flow over the Sound, you will still have a very localized southeasterly coming out of the Ship Canal. This challenge will be compounded by stronger shifts to the southwest as the day goes on and the breeze starts to ease. Very tactical and challenging racing for sure.

I had a request from my friend Peter Salusbury up in Vancouver to gaze deeply into the crystal ball to see what conditions we may have for the best long distance race in the Pacific Northwest, South Straits of Georgia which will be starting on Friday, the 14th of April. Needless to say, if it had started today it would have been quite a thrash but then again we’ve come to expect this of that race. While the 11 April chart continues to show what appears to be an unrelenting string of low-pressure systems out there, they are really starting to weaken, except for that monster 972MB low on the International Dateline. It, however, is not moving our way so at this point conditions are looking relatively benign. Doesn’t mean you can slack off in your safety preparation, however. I’ve included the Navy charts for Friday and Saturday next weekend. I’ll have a special South Straits forecast on Thursday with a weekend post on Friday.

Have a safe and fun weekend!