Bruce’s Briefs – Page 21

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 8,9,10, and 11 May. Vashon Island Race (sort of)

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs May 8, 2020May 8, 2020Puget Sound Marine Weather 0 Comment

First of all, a big thank you to Doug Frazer on Oxomoxo for sending me a Race Report on how they did sailing the virtual Blakely Rock Race, I should have reported on how we did on Tahlequah. As usual, we ended up second to Elusive but at least we made them nervous.

Today reminded me of the 1969 Vashon Island Race where over 500 boats (Ed. note: Oh My God I wish I’d been here) were participating and there was no short course. It was truly a spectacle with spinnakers covering the Sound, all the way from Shilshole to the south end of Vashon. This included a two-wheel spinnaker reach (complete with knockdowns) from Pt. Robinson to just past the gravel pit. A very small light spot at the south end of the island and a solid beat all the way back to the finish. On the Columbia 50 Six Pack, we finished at 1730 hours, sunburned and tired from grinding in the 180% genoa using Barlow 35’s. It is still a great memory and I still have the Roy Montgomery picture of us beating up Colvos trying to catch the K-50 Nor’Wester. Yes, Professor Peabody, I did borrow the Wayback Machine!

The Pacific NW Offshore Race would have been probably the nicest race ever run with a nice offshore flow providing racers with a reaching easterly and very warm (70°F+) temps, lasting almost all night except for a relatively large light spot in the lee of the Olympics. There also would have been a very challenging light air beat down the Strait of JdF to the finish in Victoria. Oh well, Next year!

Today would have been a copy of that day in 1969, tomorrow as the ridge of high-pressure begins to break down, the wind will not be nearly as consistent. As the surface charts show, we’ll have a thermal trough developing over the area as the offshore flow develops and we get some compressional heating as the breeze comes downslope off the Cascades and Olympics. It should be a great Mother’s Day weekend as we await the arrival of another weak system late Monday into the middle of next week.

The 500mb, upper-level pressure charts show an interesting oscillation in the jet stream as it transitions from a meridional flow to yet another zonal flow directing systems into the Pacific NW. We are however also starting to see the jet stream move ever so slightly to the north. This will bring a warming trend to our weather and maybe a trend toward more summer-like conditions. Just in time for the start of Wednesday night racing! Let’s keep our fingers crossed.

Enjoy the weekend!

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 1, 2, 3, 4, May and we get to start fishing on the 5th of May and maybe sailboat racing shortly thereafter!

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs May 1, 2020May 1, 2020 0 Comment

Definitely would not have been the best weekend for Opening Day but Race to the Straits would have been a hoot! Oh well, next year.

The surface charts for today show a weak series of high’s over the Pacific NW with a couple of low-pressure systems with attached fronts offshore that will show up over the weekend. The jet stream flow continues to be zonal with upper level low-pressure systems remaining on the north side of the jet stream and upper level high-pressure systems on the south side of the jet stream. This will keep unsettled weather coming into our area through most of next week. Welcome to spring in the beautiful NW.

Tomorrow morning will start out with light winds over most of the area except for the Eastern end of the Strait of JdF. As the next system comes ashore tomorrow southerly winds will pick up over the area. This will continue through the day over the central Sound with 15-20 knots possible. Admiralty Inlet, the Straits and the SJ Islands will see slightly stronger winds from the SE.

As the front passes in the mid-afternoon a strong onshore flow will develop in the Straits bringing westerlies of 15-25 knots. As these are fast moving systems, the onshore flow will weaken Sunday but keep southerlies around for the central Sound. This will create yet another Puget Sound convergence zone for the area north of Everett with areas of heavier rain. Another reason why things will be so green, plants, roofs and sidewalks with moss, etc etc.

Anyway, maybe we can all look forward to the 5^th of May when we can get back out on the water!

Keep your fingers crossed and have a great weekend!

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 24, 25, 26, and 27 April. April will exit a bit on the wet side!

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs, Weather April 24, 2020April 24, 2020Puget Sound Marine Weather 0 Comment

It has once again been a very interesting week weatherwise since we started the week with only .06 inches of rain for the month. We are now up to a whopping .89 inches compared to an average for this date of 2.11 inches. Even so, we are still 2.44 inches of rain ahead for the year, and there is more on the way.

Today will provide us a break from the rain however the rest of the weekend is going to be wet, so it will be perfect for staying at home and staying healthy. The surface analysis chart for today shows a typical late April/early May mash-up of weather systems with neither high nor low systems dominating the chart. The high we’ve been watching off the California coast is not getting any stronger nor is it moving into a more summer-like position. Instead, it is becoming weaker and more elongated as a series of frontal systems have moved over its top.

Later this evening and into tomorrow another frontal system will push through the area bringing both rain and wind, especially to the eastern end of the Strait of JdF. For the central Sound and Admiralty Inlet, this will mean southerlies of 15-25 knots which will last until midday when the post-frontal breeze fills down the Straits and a classic Puget Sound Convergence Zone sets up from Everett north to Marysville which is where we will find the heaviest rain. The strongest breeze in the Straits will be in the early morning hours as a pre-frontal southeasterly wind of 20-35 knots will churn up the eastern end of the Straits. By midday, the breeze will become a post-frontal westerly at 15-25-knots. This will ease by late Saturday and early Sunday.

Sunday will see a shift back to a pre-frontal southeasterly flow over the area as the region prepares for yet another front by late Sunday and into Monday. Don’t get those sprinklers out quite yet because if you look at the 500mb charts the flow is distinctly zonal so it will continue to bring frontal systems right into the Salish Sea.

Enjoy the weekend, stay safe, and stay healthy!

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 10, 11, 12, 13, & 14 Apr. Happy Easter!

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs April 10, 2020April 10, 2020 0 Comment

What a beautiful week to be stuck with nothing to do but walk on deserted trails while maintaining proper social distancing. All the while watching the surface reports come in and wondering just how great South Straits would have been. Yes, it’s a little light now up in the Straits and around the Salish Sea in general however by this evening a nice northwesterly would be filling down the Strait of Georgia giving teams a nice downwind ride in moonlight. I’ll start reserving these conditions for next year right now!

The overall weather pattern is still unsettled however since it’s bringing even more snow to the Cascades and Olympics, we’ll take it. Like we have many choices. LA may not like rain in such quantities however it will help them as well. At least we won’t be subjected to the wild weather in the eastern US or the ravages of a very intense Cyclone Harold in the South Pacific.

We have a weak low-pressure system with a stationary front to the north of us with a multiplicity of lows to the east of us. This will allow a moderate onshore flow to come down the Strait of Jdf and Strait of Georgia. Then as the stationary front drifts to the south, it will bring some high clouds over the area late today and into tomorrow. As it continues to the south this will create an offshore flow over the area into Sunday which will bring with it sunshine and warmer temperatures.

What will be interesting to watch is the North Pacific High, which while still not exactly strong and decidedly elongated on a north-south axis, is very effectively setting us up for more nice days and even warmer temps. This is reinforced by the jet stream so check the upper air charts. As the NPH becomes stronger and drifts slowly to the east, this will bring a nice onshore northwesterly flow to the area to keep us from getting too warm, too soon.

In the meanwhile, enjoy these days and stay safe!

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce’s Briefs: 3,4,5,6 April Sloop Tavern Blakely Rock!

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs April 3, 2020April 3, 2020Blakely Rock Benefit Regatta 1 Comment

Well, it would be a perfect weekend for one of our most favorite races, Sloop Tavern Blakely Rock. Unfortunately, it, along with just about everything else, has been canceled. That, however, won’t keep us from forecasting for the weekend!

Today’s surface analysis chart shows a very complex series of systems around us with three low-pressure systems surrounding the Salish Sea and three high-pressure systems in place to start influencing our weather after these lows move on down to California.

Today’s weather started with an onshore flow coming down the Strait as well as through the Chehalis Gap and up the Sound. This created a classic Puget Sound convergent zone that is still in play as this is being written. 16-knots from the north at West Point and 16-knots from the south at Alki, some rain from north Seattle to Marysville. Gradually the northerly will come down the Sound and as high pressure builds in BC and the low moves south the onshore flow will ease and the flow over the area will become more northerly to northeasterly. Then as we move into next week, high-pressure will build in the Pacific and our weather will become nicer and slightly warmer. Finally.

So how would we sail the Sloop BRBR? Tides will be fairly weak which will help clear up the congestion that will develop at Meadow Point because of the weak flood and light northerly. A clear air start will be key and getting around Meadow Point cleanly will help the early starters. With the anticipated light air and congestion near the mark, you’ll want to watch to see if you could pull off a port tack start and head immediately into the beach which would get you out of the tide and into a nice northeasterly along the beach south of Meadow Pt. This will also give you a starboard tack approach to the mark just remember that if the big NFS boats have chopped up the air at the mark you may have to anticipate a couple of quick tacks to get around.

Once you get around you’ll hold starboard tack to get you out into the stronger flood however the wind will tend to be stronger along the east side of the Sound. A stronger northerly will eventually fill down so keep your head out of the boat and watch what’s going on around you. This also might be a good year to plan a gybe to port at West Point. There should be a nice northeasterly which will allow you to sail straight down the Sound with a course to a point just west of Alki. This will only last until you are even with Four Mile Rock and once you’re lifted to just east of Alki, gybe and you’ll be aimed right at Blakely Rock.

Once around Blakely Rock, you’ll hold a nice port tack all the way back to Magnolia just don’t get too far into the shallow water south of West Pt, it shoals up very quickly.

You’ll hold starboard tack until you can track to port and be aimed just south of the entrance to the Ship Canal. There will be some anti-water along here because of the outflow from the Canal but as you get closer to the Canal you should also get another knock which will allow you to tack to starboard and go right across the entrance to the Ship Canal and plan your final approach to the finish.

Regardless of what we have for weather tomorrow, just remember that we all will have better days ahead. Enjoy the weekend, go to the marina, check the boat, maybe even go for a sail. If you don’t go sailing, just relax on the boat and read one of the many equipment manuals you always meant to read. Believe me, you’ll feel better just for having been on the boat!

Ed. Note: My advice for tomorrow’s non-race? Read Bruce’s weather outlook a couple times, close your eyes and visualize it as Bruce called it. If you’re a trimmer, do some air-grinding. If you’re an owner, draw up some fake $100 bills and rip them up. If you’re a bow person, get someone to yell “Can’t you do that any faster?” at you a few times with increasing intensity. Sit on the edge of your couch, lean forward and think of witty and slightly rude nicknames to call your main competitors. Laugh loudly enough to bother the other people in your house. Then eat a soggy sandwich.

OK, not the same. But it is something that’s not on a screen. Then go read the manuals or for a real thrill read the racing rules. –KH

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 27, 28, 29,30,31 March

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs March 27, 2020March 27, 2020 2 Comments

While March is supposed to go out like a lamb, this year will be the opposite with a weak front going through the area tomorrow which will bring southerly breezes for the Sound, Admiralty Inlet, Eastern Strait of JdF, and the San Juan Islands with the potential for Small Craft Advisories.

After the front passes there will be a brief post-frontal westerly in the Strait of JdF with strong southerly breezes on the coast starting Sunday night. These will move inland early Monday morning and then rapidly dissipate.

Not a great weekend to be out on the water but better than being cooped up at the house. At least go down and check on the boat because better times are ahead.

Stay safe.

Ed. Note, looking forward to those better times. In the meantime everyone stay safe and help keep the rate of infection down. -KH

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce’s Briefs: March 13, 14, and the Ides. GHYC Islands Race

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs, Weather March 13, 2020March 13, 2020 0 Comment

For those of you who are racing tomorrow, especially at Royal Vic and Bellingham, dress warmly, life jackets and safety harnesses for sure, and if you’re not comfortable with the conditions, don’t go! It looks like the Islands Race will have a nice breeze for the entire day with maybe as much as 20-knots, while Bellingham and Victoria could see 30-40 knots of northeasterly with gusts near 50! WOW! That’s a lot of wind.

Now (1600 hrs) up at the eastern end of the Straits of JdF we have a west-southwesterly breeze of 6 knots, which still gives a wind chill of 30-degrees, and the barometer is still falling. We can see snow up on the hills above Port Angeles and Sequim so the cold air is here but it is rain mixed with snow at sea level.

As you can see from the charts, we have a stationary frontal system that is slowly moving to the east. With the barometer still falling along the coast and here on the south side of the Straits this will keep the strong winds and very cold temperatures up north. It’s already 31 from the NE at Race Rocks so it’s coming.

So why will this northeasterly be so strong? Just look at the high-pressure system in the NE part of BC, it was at an ear-popping 1056mb this morning and it’s only going to weaken very slightly over the weekend. So with a pressure gradient difference of about 50mb, we are looking at some serious wind coming down the Fraser River Valley, blowing across the San Juan Islands and Bellingham, and then across the Straits of JdF. From there the breeze will be topographically forced down Admiralty Inlet and then down the Sound, slowly easing as it encounters landmasses.

This will mean a nice northerly in Colvos Passage that should last the entire day. In other words, a hard beat up the passage, hiking like crazy followed by a quick run back the finish and then into the Tides for well deserved hot-buttered rums, while maintaining that critical 6-foot social distance. You’ll get lots of tacking and gybing practice so that should help keep you warm. 😊

Have a safe sail, and a great time.

Bruce Hedrick

Special Bruce’s Brief: Wx Warning for Bellingham, San Juan Islands, Eastern Strait of JdF, Starting at 1700 tomorrow through 1800 Saturday.

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs, Weather March 12, 2020March 12, 2020 0 Comment

Ed. Note: Please share with anyone who might be affected. The area mentioned in the headline above will be subject to a real blast of Fraser River outflow starting tomorrow afternoon and extending through Saturday. The reason for those is one very large high-pressure system positioned over eastern BC which has been as high as 1055mb which is really high. The charts show the compression of the isobars immediately to the NE of Bellingham and Vancouver. This will bring strong NE breeze, 30-50 knots with higher gusts, to the area as well as significantly cooler temperatures.

With the low that you see offshore this will also bring Strait Effect snow to the US side of the Straits from Port Townsend to Sekiu especially in the Olympics.

Add the extra mooring lines and fenders for this one.

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 6, 7, 8, 9 March CYC Blakely Rock Race, Remember Daffodils for Kelly.

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs March 6, 2020March 6, 2020 0 Comment

It’s our favorite time of the year: the start of CYC’s Center Sound Series! The good news is the front went through this morning and all that remains is some scattered showers. The bad news is that models are not in agreement about what will happen tomorrow. What we are in agreement on is that it will be good to get out racing again.

We have generally light conditions over the central Sound today and the surface charts confirm that the pressure gradient will continue to ease over the weekend even with a weak trough that is scheduled to move through the area tomorrow. As that passes, a weak ridge of high pressure will build tomorrow afternoon and bring a weak NW breeze to the central Sound. Some models show a stronger southerly for tomorrow morning with a northerly maybe to 15 knots filling down the Sound mid-afternoon. Not so sure about that. Generally speaking, it looks light but we’ll see when we power out of Shilshole tomorrow morning and then expect anything!

The other good news is that tides are very weak.

Currents at West Point

0830 Slack

1154 Max flood .61 knts

1442 Slack

1612 Max ebb .31 knts

The places to watch for current will be at the entrance to Ship Canal and on the south side of West Point where the ebb from the Duwamish will be flowing in a northwesterly direction.

As far as tactics go, get a clear air start and don’t get to close to the beach north of West Point. You’ll also want to watch COG and SOG as you tack out on port tack. The strongest flood will be just offshore from West Point so if you’re laying that buoy just hold port and beat feet to the west because the wind will tend to shift from southerly to southwesterly the closer you get to Bainbridge but again don’t get too close to the beach and remember the reef off of Wing Point. Staying out a bit will keep you in what flood there is and after Wing Point, stay out to stay in better breeze. Remember also that the flood flows into Eagle Harbor even as far south as the piling marker.

Set up for a port pole set at the Rock and then hold port until you can gybe out near R 2 at the entrance to Eagle Harbor then work out. Remember also that if a northwesterly is coming down the Sound, the SSW breeze will shift to SW and then to WSW so you may hold port all the way north. If the wind is shifting that way, make sure the headsail is ready to go back up. As mentioned above, there is no agreement about when this shift might come in, so be sure to keep your head out of the boat and watch the curb feelers out in front of you to anticipate the shift.

If the northwesterly has come in then it may be a gybe set at the top mark followed by gybes to get to the finish and stay in breeze.

One model has Crossfire and Sonic around the course in a little over five hours with the J-35’s taking about 10.5 hours.

Regardless, bring your warm foulies and wear your sunblock! Have a great time and we’ll see you out there!

Ed. Note: Please send race anecdotes, observations and tales to me and I’ll try to work them into post-race coverage. Thanks! KH

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 28, 29 Feb 1,2,3, March. Safety at Sea Bainbridge

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs February 28, 2020February 28, 2020 0 Comment

This is the perfect weekend for the Safety at Sea program on Bainbridge Island. If you haven’t signed up, it’s too late as this great program is completely sold out! A huge well-done to Margaret Pommert for putting this all together.

As you can see from today’s chart, we have a couple of weak low-pressure systems off the coast with an attached cold front that will move through the area late this afternoon and into the evening. It’s moving very quickly so the high wind speeds (25-30 knots) over the central Sound will not last long. After frontal passage, a strong onshore flow will come down the Straits and gradually work its way down the Sound late Saturday. The onshore gradient will ease late Saturday and into Sunday. Today’s prints from Langley Hill Doppler and the Goes Sat Pic clearly show this front.

The other interesting transition to watch will be the development of a fairly strong (1043mb) high-pressure system off the California coast. It’s interesting in that as this high builds it will have the effect of modifying the upper airflow from zonal to meridional. Note that on today’s upper air chart there is no high showing below the jet stream and yet by Sunday it is quite pronounced. This will allow another series of fronts to come into the area by late Monday and into Tuesday with more arriving by week’s end. This is all good as we still need snow in the mountains to build the snowpack.

Next week is the start of CYC’s Center Sound Series so we’ll have a more detailed forecast for the race. In the meanwhile, Saturday might be a good time to do a bit of heavy weather sailing just to clean out the cobwebs, remember how to reef, and check the leads for the #3 and #4. Just make sure everyone has all their safety gear, jacklines are run and remember what the definition of heavy weather sailing is: It’s the point at which you no longer feel comfortable with your boat or your crew being able to handle conditions. In that case, have a crew meeting and go over all the safety gear and safety procedures at the dock.

Have a great weekend!

Bruce Hedrick

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