Bruce’s Briefs – Page 2

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 10, 11, 12, 13, and 14 May. Get ready for summer, it’s on its way! Perfect weekend coming up, if you’ll have wind will depend on where you are!

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs May 10, 2024May 10, 2024Vashon Island Race 0 Comment

Our coolish spring is over and with near record temps today, you can expect more of the same (almost) for tomorrow and Mom’s Day. Cooling on Monday with the approach of a weakening front and maybe some very light rain. Speaking of rain, it’s only the 10^th of May and we are already over ½” below average. As we’ve been saying, expect a warm and dry summer.

Today’s surface chart, sat pic and 500MB analysis give us the reasons for our weather today. The 500MB chart shows the jet stream as far north as it has been since last fall with the jet stream coming ashore in SE Alaska. It also shows the Pacific High is beginning to intrude into the upper atmosphere. The surface analysis chart shows what was a weak high-pressure system off of our coast gradually gaining strength and starting to hold its own against the fronts coming out of the Gulf of Alaska. The heat over our area has also produced a thermally induced trough of low pressure that while currently over the coast will gradually drift inland over the weekend. The sat pic for today shows a crystal-clear day for the area, which should hold for the weekend. In addition to Mom’s Day, we will also experience the strongest (as in severe) geomagnetic storm we’ve had in 20 years. This means that with the clear sky we could have quite a visit from the Northern Lights. It will help if you’re in an area with low light pollution. This could be very cool.

About the wind, starting tomorrow morning the South Sound will once again be light. The San Juan Islands will have a nice NW breeze of 10-15 knots flowing down from the Strait of Georgia. The East end of the Strait of JdF will be light. The Central and North Sound will have a nice northerly of about 10 knots. By midday, this will remain pretty much the same except for the Central and North Sound where the northerly will build slightly over the day. For the Vashon Island Race, the question will be how long will it take for the northerly to fill down past Pt. Robinson and into the South Sound. It will eventually but it could be interesting getting around the South End of Vashon. The northerly should be solidly in place by mid to late afternoon, even in Colvos.

Enjoy the weekend but use sunblock early and often, you’ll need it!

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for May 3, 4, 5, and 6. Sloop Race to the Straits.

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs May 3, 2024May 3, 2024Race to the Straits 0 Comment

Our unsettled spring weather continues and the lack of agreement among the weather models is a good indication of just how unsettled things are in the weather sphere. Today’s sat pic gives us a great overview of what is coming for today into tomorrow and that mostly means rain. The wind side of this equation is more complicated because as this front comes onshore it will weaken and dissipate. There will be some post frontal westerly flow down the Strait of JdF however that won’t last past late afternoon or early evening tomorrow as another front will approach the coast on Sunday.

What we are fairly confident about is the tidal flow in Admiralty Inlet:

Saturday

0900 Slack

1200 Max Flood 2.17 knts

1524 Slack

1806 Max Ebb 1.64 knts

Sunday

0648 Max Ebb 2.69 knts

0942 Slack

1248 Max Flood 2.65 knts

1636 Slack

1906 Max Ebb 1.68 knts

For wind tomorrow, one model has the early starters setting kites. Three other models have everyone enjoying a light air beat at least to Marrowstone. Then there’s light air beating in the rain and a flood tide trying to get past Double Bluff. By about 1400 tomorrow a stronger westerly flow will come down the Straits and into Admiralty Inlet. This could bring 12-15 knots of wind to Port Townsend and maybe about halfway down Marrowstone. Near 1600 hrs as a stronger southerly flow comes north in the Central Sound, a convergent zone will develop in the North Sound and extend north to Double Bluff. By 1700 hrs expect a light and variable zone from Pt No Pt(PNP) to mid-Marrowstone. By 1800 hrs the southerly flow will extend from PNP to mid-Marrowstone.

For Sunday it looks like a light air beat in a southerly at least to PNP. From PNP south to the finish expect a southerly of 15-20 knots. Even more interesting will be the beating in a wind against tide situation, especially in the north Sound. We always hope for a two-way run on this race and most of the time we get a least one day of running. This year, unfortunately, it looks like a two-way beat, bummer. Oh well, at least the party in Pt Townsend will be great and then there’s always next year.

Have a great race, and be safe.

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 26, 27, 28, 29, and 30 Apr. Smith Island Race plus plenty of other events around the Pac NW.

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs April 26, 2024April 26, 2024 0 Comment

Yesterday, in just one day we doubled our rainfall for the month. This helps, but we remain about 2” behind for the month and 3” behind for the year with no relief in sight. We also got a light dusting of snow above 3,000 ft but the freezing level will rise to around 5,000ft over the weekend and will start to affect our snowpack. It is not too soon to start preparing for what could be a very hot and very dry summer.

Today’s surface analysis chart and sat pic show a pair of weak low-pressure systems straddling the Pacific NW with another low-pressure system and attached frontal system in the Gulf of Alaska that will slowly drift our way this coming week. For tomorrow another cold front will move through the area and bring some breeze to some areas in the Salish Sea. This is a complex scenario and the models are not in agreement especially since the cold front tomorrow will move into the area from the NE. That simply doesn’t happen very often.

For tomorrow the most consistent breeze will probably be in the Central and North Sound and Admiralty Inlet. Especially from Pt No Pt to Pt Townsend from 1300-2000hrs there could be a SSW breeze of 10-25 knots.

Then there are the tides in Admiralty Inlet. Note especially the minus 1.5’ tide in Port Townsend tomorrow at 1300hrs going to a high of 8.5’ at 2100hrs.

The best thing to do will be to start logging wind speed and direction as well as surface barometric pressures today so you can track the changes as they occur and try to establish a trend. Have fun!

So stay safe, try to stay dry and enjoy the weekend!

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 19, 20, 21, 22, and 23 Apr. Lots of sailing all over the Salish Sea this weekend!

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs April 19, 2024April 19, 2024 0 Comment

It should be a pretty good weekend for racing with the usual caveat that that will depend upon where you’re sailing. The other big news is that in addition to a very active hurricane season in the Atlantic with some spillover to the Pacific, we had a spectacular volcanic eruption in Indonesia which was captured on satellite, and the State of Washington has finally declared a drought emergency for the State because of our meager snowpack and lack of spring rains. For April we’ve only had .4” of an inch of rain compared to an average on this date of 2.07”. For the year we’ve had 12.91” compared to an average of 15.78”. Combining this with the forecast of a hotter and drier than normal summer, and an increasing possibility of a La Niña event, this could make for a not-so-much fun season. This would go for not only the usual areas in the Cascades and Eastern Washington but also around the Olympic Mountains.

At least this weekend should be relatively pleasant with the best day being Saturday with a high near 70˚F and the rain holding off until around sunset. Sunday will be 12˚ to 15˚ degrees cooler with cloudy conditions.

What does this mean for wind? As I said, it will depend on where you’re sailing. The reason is apparent from the Sat Pics and the Surface Analysis and Forecast charts. We are having a beautiful day today however not far off the coast is the next frontal system. Typically, as these fronts approach the coast they tend to weaken and fall apart as they interact with the coastal buffer zone. This will happen this weekend however on Saturday there will be a tightening of the pressure gradient as the front comes onshore. Most areas will start with light air except in the Eastern Strait of JdF where on Saturday morning we’ll have a prefrontal SE breeze 15-25 knots.

In the Central Sound, we’ll have light air of 5 knots or less from the SSW until about 1300 hrs when the breeze will build to 5-8 knots from the SSW. By 1400 to 1500hrs the breeze will build to about 10 knots. By 1600 to 1700hrs the breeze will build to SW of 15 knots. By 1800 hrs it could be 15-20 knots of SW.

In the South Sound, you can expect about the same progression but with about 5 knots less breeze.

By 1800 hours in the Eastern Strait of JdF, a solid onshore flow will develop bringing gale warnings to the area for westerlies of 25-35 knots. Those conditions will start to ease by 2100-2200hrs. Don’t take that as a trend as there will continue to be pulses of strong westerlies coming down the Strait through the day on Sunday.

In the Central and South Sound conditions for Sunday will remain in the 5-10 knots of southerly at least until around noon when the westerly in the Straits will begin to try and fill down the Sound. Expect a northerly in the Central Sound of 10-15 knots by around 1400 hours. This will ease through the rest of the afternoon.

Enjoy the weekend just don’t expect the warm temps to last as the jet stream is staying south and becoming more zonal. This will keep the temps on the cool side for at least the next 10 days with very little measurable precip.

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 12, 13, 14, 15, and 16 April. Sloop Tavern Blakley Rock Race, Plus plenty of sailing all over the Salish Sea and a perfect weekend for it!

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs, Community April 12, 2024April 12, 2024Blakely Rock Benefit Regatta, Sloop Tavern Yacht Club 0 Comment

Wind from the north, temps in the 60’s, flowers starting to bloom, all good signs. This weekend should be great. Then there’s Monday where the high temp will be almost 15˚F lower than Sunday. Still no real rain on the horizon and as of today, we are almost an inch behind for the month.

Today’s surface analysis chart and sat pic provide a beautiful picture of what is going on in the Salish Sea. We’ve had the passage of a weak cold front this morning and behind this, a ridge of high pressure will start building over the area. This can already be seen by the strong northerly flow down the Strait of Georgia, through the San Juan Islands, and into Puget Sound. As with this classic situation, the best day for breeze is immediately after frontal passage. The best part is that while there may be some easing in the breeze tomorrow, there will be plenty to race with, just about everywhere. The only exception being Olympia which will remain light.

Today’s sat pic shows the clearing starting to develop over the area as well as that big low-pressure system off the coast of Oregon. It is also interesting to note on the 500MB charts that this low intrudes into the upper levels of the atmosphere. The jet stream remains to the south of this low and will drag this weakening low into California by Sunday/Monday. This is why we’ll have such a nice weekend.

The north wind course for the Blakely Rock Benefit Race can be challenging because of the proximity of the weather mark (Meadow Point) to the starting line. Particularly if there’s a flood tide. With the slower boats starting first sometimes there can be congestion at the mark. Luckily tides should not be much of an issue as a max ebb of less than half a knot will be around 1000 hrs, with the slack at around 1230 hrs. With a persistent northerly of 10-15 knots blowing overnight and then building to 15-20 knots by the time the race starts, the flood may start early by 15-25 minutes. Just watch the classes ahead to see if congestion develops at the mark.

On the run from Meadow Point to Blakely Rock the problem will be keeping your air clear as well as finding a passing lane to get around the slower boats. There may tend to be more breeze on the west side of the Sound.

Blakely Rock will be the place where most of the fleet will compress and finding clear air will be a problem. The challenge will be to stay in clear air and not having to tack too much. The overall goal will be to hold port tack and get across the Sound to Magnolia. There will be some flood at West Point so try to stay out of the current without running aground between Four Mile Rock and the West Point Lighthouse. On this leg expect the breeze to be in the 10-15 knot range from the north.

After West Point don’t tack to port immediately at the Point, instead hold starboard until you can just lay the entrance to the Ship Canal. This will allow you to avoid the flood current that accelerates along the north side of West Point. It will also allow to better judge your approach to the finish line.

The current projections for breeze have this being a fairly speedy race with the TP-52’s around in 1hr 50min, the SC-52 around in 2 hr 05 min, the J-105’s around in 2hr 27 min, the J-35’s around in 2hr 28 min, the Cal 40 around in 2 hr 42 min and the J-30 around in 2 hr and 58 min.

Have a great race, stay safe and have a good time.

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for Apr 5, 6, 7, and 8 Apr. CYC Small Boat Regatta, and South Sound McAllister Creek

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs April 5, 2024April 5, 2024 0 Comment

Overall, it looks like a decent weekend of sailing, especially in the south and central Sound. Yes, even wind in the South Sound for McAllister Creek.

We have a fairly strong Pacific High (1042MB) in the mid-Pacific with a weak trough of low pressure along the west coast. This will keep a persistent SW flow over the Salish Sea with some rain. It will also be on the cool side. Take a look at the upper level/500MB charts and you’ll notice the jet stream currently comes ashore in Mexico which is why the temps are relatively cool. Notice also that over the week, the jet stream will become more zonal and by Tuesday/Wednesday it will be coming ashore near Westport which will facilitate some warming. That means upper temps finally getting back into the 60s by Tuesday/Wednesday and holding into next weekend.

For the South Sound tomorrow it looks like a SW breeze of 6-10 knots over the race course until about 1530-1630hrs when from Johnson Point to Big Tykle Cove(BTC) the breeze will ease to 2-4 knots. South of BTC the breeze will remain at 4-6 knots to the finish with the puffs clocking from the SW to WSW and W.

For the Central Sound, the breeze will start at 15-20 knots from the SW and gradually ease through the day and back to the SSW. For Sunday expect a SW breeze of 8-14 knots which will ease slightly over the day. The models are not in agreement after about mid-afternoon as a weak onshore flow will develop and one model has a weak NW breeze coming down the Sound by 1500-1600hrs. Just one more thing to watch for on Sunday afternoon.

Tonight, drink a toast to Scott Rohrer, one of the greatest sailors I ever had the privilege to sail with, for, or against.

Have a great weekend!

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 29, 30, 31, and 1 Apr. Southern Straits underway this morning, Should be a nice weekend!

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs March 29, 2024March 29, 2024Southern Straits Race 0 Comment

We had a bit of rain yesterday however at this point it looks like we’ll end up about 1.6” behind for the month and about 1” behind for the year. The snowpack is still a problem with no relief in sight. So no rain this weekend or next, just a light shower on Wednesday.

WVYC is doing some innovative things for Southern Straits, especially with the ORC Scoring based on actual windspeeds. They are also to be saluted for having the stones to correct faulty PHRF-NW ratings. At least someone is doing something to try and help PHRF-NW and they can get it done in a fraction of the time.

Conditions will be relatively mild over the weekend. There will be some strong onshore flow down the Strait of JdF after that pesky low we’ve had off the coast drifts south and joins a slightly stronger system that will bring more valley rain and mountain snow to California.

The upper-level charts still have the jet stream coming ashore south of San Francisco and that will keep temps in the Salish Sea a little cool, which is fine as that will help preserve what snowpack we have.

Breezes over the central and south Sound will remain light over the weekend except for some spillover from the Straits that will occur Saturday afternoon and into Sunday morning. The Strait of Georgia will see some NW breeze Saturday afternoon and that will fill into the north part of the San Juan Islands before easing on Sunday.

Especially this time of the year it’s always a good idea to check the actual windspeeds before you head out and keep a log of those so you can spot potential issues before you leave the dock.

Have a great weekend!

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 22, 23, 24, 25, and 26 March. Last race of CYC Center Sound Series, TTP or Duwamish Head?

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs March 22, 2024March 22, 2024 0 Comment

As with any transitional weather situation, the models do not agree on when the transition will occur. Today’s surface analysis chart and sat pic give us a nice overview of the current conditions with a weak low-pressure system off the Oregon coast meandering slowly around with a weak frontal system right along the coast. When the front finally passes, a stronger onshore flow will come down the Straits and into the Sound. Models do agree that this will probably occur sometime between late morning and mid-afternoon tomorrow. At least it will be cool with occasional light rain. Luckily, tides will not be much of an issue.

Rain and snowpack continue to be a problem that will probably continue into the late spring and early summer. So far this month we have only had 1.17” which is 1.73” below normal and for the year we are 1.12” below normal. Even with more systems headed our way this week they will be weak and will not do much to increase rainfall totals.

The surface forecast chart for Saturday shows quite a gap in the pressure gradients over the Salish Sea. The weak low off the coast will meander off to the SE allowing a weak ridge of high pressure to develop over the area. This will keep a weak northerly flow over the area through Sunday.

For tomorrow, the question will be which course to send us on. If they send us on the long course to TTP the TP-52’s will be around in about 6 hours with a zone of light air lasting about 1 to 3 hours after a start in 6-9 knts of SE. The J-35’s will be around the course in 7.5 hours with the J-30’s around in 8.5 hours.

When the northerly fills down the Sound it will of course be light to start and then build to 10-15 by mid-afternoon, with one model showing 15-20 knts. This will last until about mid-evening before it starts to ease.

If they send us on the shorter/More sensible mrse, the TP-52’s will take about 3.5 hours, the J-35’s and 105’s about 4.5 hours, and the J-30’s about 5.1 hours. Considering that going south means sailing away from the filling northerly and that means more time in the transition zone on a day with cooler temps and rain, I know which course I would choose. Nothing wrong with getting back to the Club early to swap sea stories.

The preliminary view of South Straits Race looks like it won’t be a barn burner with winds probably averaging 10 knots or less. Not all bad!

Have a great weekend and try to stay dry and warm tomorrow.

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for the Ides of March, 16,17, 18 and 19 March, GHYC Islands Race.

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs March 15, 2024March 15, 2024 0 Comment

It’s going to be light!

It’s that feast or famine time of the year for sailboat racing in Putrid Sound. Way too much wind last weekend and not nearly enough this weekend, well at least on Saturday.

The good news is that it is going to be probably the nicest weekend so far this year with the high temp near 70F on both days. The price we’ll pay for this spring break will be light, as in very light, breeze on Saturday with a reasonable southerly filling in on Sunday.

Today’s sat pic, and surface analysis chart show a clear area over the Salish Sea with an impressive low offshore and high pressure inland. This will result in an offshore breeze today however as a ridge builds over the area on Saturday, the pressure gradient will diminish and we’ll be left with light air. This ridge will continue to deflect storms to the north as the jet stream moves way north and comes ashore in BC. We will also have an upper-level high-pressure system centered over the area which will keep temps on the mild side.

We will continue to have a relatively mild week with the next chance of rain occurring towards the end of the week. Even then it won’t amount to much in the old rain gauge.

Enjoy the weekend.

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 8, 9, 10, 11, and 12 March. Center Sound Race #2 Scatchet Head Race. Looks breezy for yet another weekend!

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs March 8, 2024March 8, 2024Center Sound Series, Scatchet Head Race 1 Comment

Hard as it may be to believe, we will have wind once again for the weekend and for the upcoming week as several systems will march right on through the Pacific NW. Also interesting is that all five models are pretty much in agreement. The differences are about how much wind we’ll have and when the cold front will pass over us tomorrow. We are still about .5” of rain behind for the month however tomorrow and this week could change that and help the snowpack in our mountains which is still behind. Dress warmly and stay dry.

Today’s surface analysis charts show an unrelenting group of lows with attached frontal systems off our coast and headed our way. California will still get most of the rain and snow however we will begin to get close to our seasonal norm which is all good, unless you live in California. The Pacific High, because it remains weak, has been pushed off to the south while the slightly stronger High east of the Cascades will push systems into BC and SE Alaska. The Upper-Level charts show a meridional flow off the coast for today with the jet stream coming ashore mid-Oregon. As the week goes on, this flow will become more zonal with the jet stream drifting to the south and coming ashore mid-California. This will keep temps cool in the PacNW and help preserve what snowpack we have.

The consistent feature in the Surface charts is the bunching of isobars over the Pacific NW and this pressure gradient won’t ease until Wednesday. That’s why we can expect 12-25 knots of SSE for the start tomorrow and that will build to 20-30 knots midday with higher gusts. The question is when will the cold front go through because that is when the breeze will start to clock from SSE to SSW to SW. By late afternoon the gradient should start to ease, however I think the fleet will have finished by then.

Tides should not be an issue as slack at Scatchet Head should be around 1100 hrs however with the consistent southerly flow over the Sound and freshwater coming out of the Snohomish River, flowing out of Possession Sound, and across Scatchet Head, the ebb at Scatchet Head may last another 45-60 minutes. Remember also that the current and wind will build as you approach the mark so figure that into your rounding strategy.

After the mark, if the ebb is still flowing at the mark it will pay to hold port tack to get south and away from the ebb before you tack to starboard. This will get you towards the Edmonds shore and the remainder of the ebb flowing south towards the Edmonds Ferry Dock. The water will also be flatter along that shore. Remember also how shallow it gets from Edwards Point to the oil docks.

The question with frontal passage and the start of the flood tide is whether it would be worthwhile to hold port tack at the mark and go across to the west side of the Sound. The flood does start first on that shore, however I think everyone will be around the mark and well on the way to the finish before the flood gets that far south. So, it would be extra miles to sail to get over there and if the wind doesn’t come around to the SW until later, it could be painful coming back across the Sound from Jeff Head. Something to watch.

As you get beat south of Richmond Beach you will want to watch if boats that hold out to the west start gaining as the breeze starts to clock from the S to the SSW and the SW. Plan your approach to the finish accordingly. This may change depending upon how close the committee boat is to Meadow Point because there could still be southeasterly, port tack lifts along the shore north of Meadow Point.

I have the TP-52’s around in three hours. The J-105’s and J-35’s in 4.25 hours and the J-30 around in 4.75 hrs.

So for tomorrow, safety first, life jackets and safety harnesses before you leave the dock, and maybe a discussion about your person overboard procedures.

Have a safe, fun, and fast race. Also, don’t forget to Spring Forward Saturday night. 😊

Bruce Hedrick

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