Bruce’s Briefs

All of you folks getting ready for TransPac should look at today’s surface analysis chart. A 1047MB Pacific High centered just slightly to the north and to the west of where we might find it this summer. Nice and round, so some degree of stability. What a great race it would be if the race were to start today and the pattern would hold for about 10 days. 

This configuration also explains we have such a strong onshore flow coming down the Straits today. Currently 40-knots at the Race, and 30 at Smith Island. Don’t worry, by tomorrow it will all change as the high will weaken and drift to the south and slightly to the west. This will allow the gradient to ease over the PacNW bringing light air to the South Sound, just in time for racing tomorrow. By late tomorrow, in advance of another front, a weak southerly flow will develop and then build into Sunday with the possibility of small craft advisories in the central and north Sound, Admiralty Inlet, eastern Strait of JdF, and the San Juan Islands by mid-day Sunday and holding into the evening.

This will mark the start of a series of weak systems making their way into the Salish Sea. Don’t complain, just look at the 28 Feb Surface Forecast Chart and checkout that 962Mb low-pressure system in the western Pacific heading into the Bering Sea. Winter is not giving up quite yet.

It is also worthwhile to check the 500MB charts as they undergo an interesting progression over the next 4 days. The 96hr Chart is particularly interesting as a 538Mb upper-level low forms off of Southern California and directs the jet stream into San Diego. This will allow almost a straight zonal flow right into the Pacific NW. We are already ahead in the rainfall category for this month and this year and while last year was wet, this year is even wetter. It’s time to start checking for moss between your toes.

Remember, next week is the CYC Blakely Rock Race and we’ll have an expanded Bruce’s Briefs on Friday. This will be followed by a Zoom Meeting with the latest wx data at 1800hrs Friday night put on by Corinthian Yacht Club. You can register for this at www.cycseattle.org

While it currently says 6:00am, trust me, it is at 1800hrs.

Stay safe, stay healthy, and have a great weekend!         

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)

Today’s satellite picture provides a great visual when compared to the surface analysis chart. We had a front move through last night and now we have an onshore flow which will continue through Saturday. The next front and low-pressure system are clearly visible and this will arrive Sunday with yet another system arriving with more wind and rain on Monday. It must be February in the Pacific NW.

For boaters, it will mean a mixed batch of conditions for the weekend, and of course, it will depend on where you’re boating so be sure to check conditions and track the barometric pressure.

If you’re racing out of Anacortes and heading to Friday Harbor the onshore flow down the Straits will mean a nice SW breeze of 10-15 knots for most of the day.

For the Jim Depue Race, you’ll have a nice southerly of 8-15 knots until about 1300 to 1500 hrs when the breeze will ease until a stronger(15-20knt) SW fills in the late afternoon. Be prepared for anything.

After midnight Saturday night, a stronger southerly will fill into central Sound, Admiralty Inlet, and the San Juan Islands By mid-day Sunday a strong onshore flow will come down the Straits with the onshore flow coming around the southern side of the Olympics meeting in Admiralty Inlet.

The great news this week is that CYC is going to have a Center Sound Series starting March 6^th with the Blakely Rock Race. Now if only the marks will stay anchored.  

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)

Sailors will find this weekend to be very interesting with plenty of wind in the central and eastern Strait of JdF (not unusual) and for once, more wind in the San Juan’s and the south Sound than in the central Sound. In other words, it’s the perfect weekend for the Shaw Island Winter Classic, the Harbor Series in Tacoma, and the Henderson Inlet Race. All three events appear to have a nice number of boats registered. So get out there and enjoy the breeze.

Today’s surface analysis chart shows the front that went through last night and early this morning, now on the other side of the Cascades. We also have a fairly strong area of high pressure(1037MB) off the coast with a weak area of low-pressure (1020MB) in the Gulf of Alaska that is moving rapidly towards the Queen Charlotte Straits and with its attached frontal system, will bring rain to our area this weekend. This set-up will bring strong onshore breeze to Straits and the South Sound with the central Sound, being in the lee of the Olympics, remaining light.

As we go through the weekend the high will remain in place offshore with this quick-hitting low dissipating as it moves over land tomorrow. This will further reinforce the strong onshore flow with the potential for gale warnings in the central and eastern Strait of JdF. The other feature to be aware of is that 1042MB high in central BC. As that slides slowly to the south and east early next week, this could bring the coldest temperatures we’ve had this winter to the Salish Sea.

For the Shaw Island Winter Classic, while it will be cranking in the Straits, with Shaw being in the lee of San Juan Island, racers will see about 5-15 from the wsw with the possibility higher gusts as you sail up the west side of Shaw Island. Should be plenty of breeze to get around the course.

Tacoma may start off with 15-20 knots of sw breeze with the potential for gusts to 25+. Olympia will be slightly lighter but again with plenty of breeze to get around the course.

The breeze in the Straits will hold until late Sunday afternoon when the ridge of high pressure will begin to ease. This will mark the start of offshore flow and the arrival of cooler temps to our area. The high pressure will remain in place and keep storms away from our area for most of next week.

Enjoy the weekend, stay safe and stay healthy!

Ed. Note: National Weatherpersons Day? It’s a thing. February 5th is National Weatherperson’s Day. From NOAA:

February 5th is National Weatherperson’s Day. The day commemorates the birth of John Jeffries in 1744. Jeffries, one of Americas first weather observers, began taking daily weather observations in Boston in 1774 and he took the first balloon observation in 1784.

OK, Bruce, Happy Weatherperson’s Day. I’ll gift you some chilly weather and above average rainfall…..

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)

It’s going to be a perfect weekend to go to the Seattle Boat Show without ever leaving the house!

Right now things are fairly calm however as you can see from the surface charts, satelite pics, and the Doppler Radar we have a strong frontal system approaching the coast which should arrive late tonight or early Saturday morning. This will bring fairly strong SSE winds to the north end of Admiralty Inlet, the eastern part of the Straits of JdF, and the San Juan Islands. This breeze will begin to ease by about mid-morning however showers will continue through the weekend. This will be just a practice run as another front will arrive late Saturday or early Sunday.

You should also take a look at the 31 Jan surface forecast chart and note that in the western Pacific the ice accretion line is almost as far south as 40° N. Combine this with the winds that are expected and you’ve got a pretty good reason to stay in port. The fact that this line is so far south is almost certainly the result of a very cold dome of high pressure that when it was over Mongolia in late December/early January set a new record for the highest pressure ever recorded. This occurred at Tsetsen-Uul, Mongolia where the mean sea-level pressure reached 1094.3mb. And we thought that when the high in western Canada got to 1049mb that that was high! The record for the contiguous-US is 1064mb which occurred in Miles City, Montana in December of  1983. If you include Alaska, the record is 1078.8mb which was set in Northway, Alaska in late January of 1989.

Today’s 500mb chart shows the upper-level low-pressure system off of southern California that brought the rain and high winds into that area earlier this week with the jet stream coming ashore near the US-Mexican border which is way south of where it normally comes ashore somewhere between Oregon and Sitka. As you look at the 96hr 500mb forecast chart you’ll notice that it doesn’t move very much further north which will mean that California will get more rain and the Sierra Nevada’s will get a lot more snow. This will be a very interesting week of weather.

Enjoy the weekend, go to the Boat Show (Seattle Boat Show Connected – Start Online. End Up On The Water.), and have a great time.

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)

If there was ever a chance a regatta would live up to its name, it would be this weekend with CYC’s Frigid Digit Regatta. If it had been held today it would have been in the conditions that are typically found the first day a ridge of high-pressure establishes itself; winds of 20-25 knots from the NW with the wind chill just above freezing. As is also typical, the ridge will weaken and go away as another frontal system comes in tomorrow night. This system will dissipate over the area Monday as another frontal system approaches the area Tuesday.

As you look at the surface chart for Saturday you’ll notice quite a gap in the isobars which indicates light air with a pre-frontal characteristic of that wind being from the south. For tomorrow, racers will enjoy brilliant sunshine (yes, sunshine, not a print error), and after the fog burns off,5-8 knots of wind from the south. Depending on how close the race committee sets the course to Shilshole, there will be a slight SE component to the breeze becoming more prominent later in the afternoon. The breeze will also tend to be lighter later in the afternoon. Just don’t forget to apply the sunblock before you leave the house.

Sunday will start with a stronger SE breeze, 11-16 knots, and then gradually ease and shift to the S by around midday. By mid-afternoon, the breeze should be in the 8-10 knot range and slowly shift to the SW as the low starts to dissipate. Oh, and did I mention the possibility of rain mixed with snow? It won’t be much but it will be distinctly cooler.

The other good news for the weekend is that there won’t be extreme tides to deal with:

Saturday Tidal Current at West Point.

0812  Max Flood    .49 knts

1230  Slack

1400  Max Ebb      .25 knts

1636  Slack

Sunday Tidal Current at West Point

0906  Max Flood    .43 knts

1300 Slack

1448  Max Ebb      .31 knts

1725  Slack

Have a great weekend, stay safe, stay healthy, and don’t forget that the BIG Seattle Boat Show starts on the 28^th of January.

You can visit the entire show online and then select which boats you would like to virtually tour. If it spooks your mule, you can schedule a call with the dealership to speak with a salesperson who can answer your questions as well as arrange an actual tour of your dream vessel.

There will also be the usual seminars that are included with your ticket and of course, Boat Show University for longer, more in-depth courses. I’ve seen a test version of the Show and it is very cool! Enjoy1

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)

Ed. Note: It’s Bruce’s birthday today! My heartfelt congratulations to the Ageless One and thanks for all he does for the community.

I could almost cut and paste the report from last week because it will be amazingly close for this weekend and into next week. We had plenty of wind earlier this week with Smith Island showing a little over an hour of winds 48-59-knots from the WNW, no wonder that truck blew over on the Deception Pass Bridge.
Today’s surface analysis chart and satellite pic show a very nice correlation with clearing over our area and the weak front that moved over the area earlier today. Tomorrow’s surface forecast chart has the inland high-pressure building (1034MB) with the offshore high stabilizing at 1028MB. These will eventually combine and give us protection from the next series of fronts that will drag over us. The 1034MB high-pressure system will also bring cooler temperatures to our area. Not freezing cold but cooler.

As the next front comes over the area on Saturday night, it will be another quick hitter weakened by our ridge of high pressure however the post-frontal winds will be 15-25 from the west on the Strait of JdF. Early Sunday morning this system will bring winds of 15-25 from the south to central Sound and Admiralty Inlet. By 0600 Sunday this will ease as the stronger westerlies come down the Straits. Other than the times above, the wind in the central and south Sound will remain light.

Next week will see that 1034MB high now to the east of us fill back to the Pacific and build to 1036MB keeping conditions calm and rain to a minimum.

Let’s hope these calm conditions extend over the rest of this country for the rest of next week.
Enjoy the weekend!

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)

The weather is certainly going to do its part by providing a somewhat spectacular welcome for us to 2021. Before we get into the details for what’s coming over the next couple of days, let’s take a look at the final rainfall totals for the year. While we may have been behind for most of the month of December, we finished with 1.46”  above the average. On an average year we usually have 37.33” while this year we ended up with 41.32”. Remember that last year we finished with 33.62”, so La Niña is clearly kicking in with the cooler and wetter weather. This weekend could a couple more FEET of snow added to the Cascades.

A glance at the surface charts shows that we have a series of strong low-pressure systems with attached fronts that will be coming ashore starting soon (see the Doppler Radar and pressure graph). This will be followed by an even stronger system tomorrow with very strong winds on the coast, San Juan, and the Gulf Islands. If you are cruising in these areas I would just sit tight tomorrow because you’ll have a break on Sunday before the next system arrives on Monday. *

You should also look at the upper air (500mb) charts which show a solid zonal flow across the Pacific as the jet stream around mid-Pacific is clocked at 145-knots! The jet stream, while south of the Salish Sea as it crosses the Pacific, takes a distinct bend to the NE as it approaches the continent bringing warm, moisture-laden air right into the Pacific NW. In other words, more snow, more rain, and more wind are headed our way.

The 48-hour surface forecast chart is interesting because not only does it show all the incoming systems but there are 10 designators of Gale, Developing Gale, Developing Storm, and Rapidly Intensifying weather. No question, heavy weather is on its way!

Enjoy your New Years weekend, stay safe, and stay healthy!

*When I started writing I could see across the Sound, not anymore. It’s pouring.

Ed. Note: I got to experience some of that weather already, with the wind in the solid 20s from the south end of Bainbridge to Shilshole! Ever get that feeling, “Boy, I’m glad I got in when I did.” It was one of those. I hope you all rang out 2020 with enthusiasm. Good riddance I say.-KH

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)

It is going to wet around here for the next three days at least that is not unusual for this time of the year. What is interesting is that we are still .62” behind for the month while still almost 2” ahead for the year. The monthly total will almost certainly catchup this weekend as we have a strong cold front which will come through tonight with yet another one coming through Saturday night and yet another one arriving on Monday.

The really cool thing this week is that the National Weather Service (NWS) got their new weather radar mosaic up and posted. This means that if you want a nice summary of all the Doppler systems running in the US you can see all the results in real-time on one page. As many of you know, the first Doppler in the Pac NW was called Sea-Tac while it was actually located on Camano Island. This meant that it couldn’t look out into the Pacific because the Olympics blocked that view. Then the NWS got us another system that was installed on Langley Hill on the coast just north of Grays Harbor.   This meant you had to look at Langley Hill to see what was coming and then to the Sea-Tac radar to see what was here. Now you get the complete picture on the first click because all the radars are now linked and the displays are nicely stitched together. Check it out!

Right now the baro is crashing and the breeze is picking up around the area. By 2200 hours tonight, the front will have passed and we’ll have a strong onshore flow down the Straits of JdF. This will come with gale warnings in the Straits with westerly winds to 40-knots in the eastern Straits.

This will ease Saturday morning and then midday Saturday the breeze will become a pre-frontal SE as the next front approaches bringing breezy conditions to the Salish Sea. With frontal passage expected late Saturday afternoon or early evening, yet another strong onshore flow will develop in the Strait of JdF. These conditions will ease by mid-afternoon Sunday as we prepare for the next front to arrive on Monday.

Note the Dec 20^th Surface Forecast Chart where we have a new record being set in the Roser Surface Low Index with 12 low-pressure systems plotted at one time. This means nasty weather and with the 500mb charts showing a predominately zonal flow pretty much aimed right at us, it also means it’s going to be wet.

Just be glad we don’t live in SE Alsaka or the Eastern seaboard of the US or in Fiji where a typhoon came ashore with 170 mph winds this week.

Stay healthy, stay safe, and have a great Holiday Season.

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)