Bruce’s Briefs – Page 15

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 30, 31 July, 1, 2, 3, Aug: Warmish weekend, trending Cooler!

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs July 30, 2021July 30, 2021 0 Comment

As you can probably tell, not much has changed over the past week. We are going to see high temps near 90°F with lows near 60°F. Once again, winds to be light until your afternoon thermal northerly fills down the Sound. The good news is that maybe on Thursday and into next weekend we may get a dash of precip. The bad news is that whatever precip there is won’t make it over the Cascades, and folks on the other side of the mountains have already had enough of this. The continuing good news for the Salish Sea is that with the ongoing scenario of high pressure offshore and lower pressure inland, this will continue to send the smoke from all the fires streaming off to the east. Take a look at the Sat Pic for today, you can just see the low-pressure system offshore with its attached frontal system and our coastal buffer zone is still very much in play so this system will weaken as it gets closer. If the chance of precip gets above 30% I’ll be surprised.

On the weather charts for today, the features of note include our Pacific High which has weakened from 1035MB last to 1025Mb today and now has a north-south orientation from 54N to 38N along a line at 153W. Between this weak high is this approaching weak low (1012MB)at 48N 142W with its cold front which, as I said, will weaken as it slowly comes onshore.

The PacNW teams getting ready to sail back from Hawaii could be in for a relatively quick crossing as the Pacific High is showing a tendency to strengthen and round up at 40N and 145W. This will mean lighter trades leaving the Islands and some very nice running conditions aiming them right towards home once they get to about 30N.

The other feature of note is in the current 500MB chart which shows the upper-level, cut-off low-pressure system off of Vancouver Island at about 48N and 143W. If this were to drift to the south and to the east this could bring smoke into the Pacific NW. Current models show this drifting back to the north. This just means that we will want to watch how this drifts. The other feature of interest is on the 96hr 500MB chart as the jet stream is in a huge oscillation coming down from the north at about 180W. This could form yet another upper-level, cut-off low-pressure system. Very unusual.

Enjoy the weekend, stay safe and use lots of sunblock.

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 23, 24, 25, 26 July. Pyewacket First to Finish TransPac.

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs July 23, 2021July 23, 2021 1 Comment

As you can probably tell, not much has changed over the past week. If you like the high temp to be around 80°F and the low to be around 55°-60° F, winds to be light until your afternoon thermal northerly fills down the Sound, and no rain in sight, that’s what is coming for the next week. The bad news is the no rain part as this will increase the fire danger and folks on the other side of the mountains have already had enough of this. The good news for the Salish Sea is that with the ongoing scenario of high pressure offshore and lower pressure inland, this will continue to send the smoke from all the fires streaming off to the east. Take a look at the Sat Pic for today, it is very easy to see where with the fires are and those are not getting smaller very quickly.

Our NW contingent in TransPac are doing fairly well. Andy Schwenk on the Express 37 Spindrift V will probably end up 2^nd in Div 8. The team from Portland on the J-121 Riva should take 2^nd in Division 7. Sonic in the TP 52 Class is currently in 6^th place but may move up one place as they get closer to Hawaii, They are in a really tough class with a bunch of newer boats that are being very well sailed. Zvi has the misfortune of being the small boat in class in a waterline race to Hawaii. When the breeze went light they moved up 2^nd but as the breeze has built, they have dropped back to 4^th. It has been a remarkably fast race with wind all along the rhumbline allowing the boats to sail the short course. I’m sure there will be plenty of gear failure stories when this one is over.

On the weather charts for today the features of note include our Pacific High which is still weak (1034MB)and still flattened along a line from 35N to 40N extending from 135W to 175W. This is allowing the weak (1010Mb to 1012MB) low-pressure systems to come over the top of the high and continue to keep it flattened. It will also tend to keep the Pacific High centered well to the west of where it normally would live. This will provide challenges for the teams sailing back from Hawaii.

The other feature of note is in the 96HR 500MB Chart as an upper level cut-off low pressure system will develop off of SE Alasaka at about 55N and 145W. If this were to drift to the south and to the east this could bring smoke into the Pacific NW. This just means that we will want to watch how this drifts.

Enjoy the weekend, stay safe and use lots of sunblock.

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 16, 17, 18, and 19 July. TRANSPAC!

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs, Transpac July 16, 2021July 16, 2021 0 Comment

Good luck to all the boats from the PacNW who competing in the 2021 TransPac. It’s going to be very interesting and very much fun to follow. The first group started on Tuesday and they had some slow sailing for the first day and a half. This group includes Andy Schwenk and his crew on the Express 37 Spindrift V. Today is the second start and that includes the J-121 Riva out of Portland YC skippered by Scott Campbell. Tomorrow the big guns get rolling and that group includes the TP-52 Sonic skippered by Marek Omilian and the RP-55 Zvi (ex-Crossfire) skippered by Alan Lubner. They all should have a great sail.

This could just about be a cut and paste forecast this weekend as not much has changed. We are very lucky to be in the PacNW with relatively mild temps however don’t let this fool you, it is still going to be a brutal summer. The snowpack is seriously depleted and there is no rain in the forecast for the foreseeable future. Our West Coast neighbors in Oregon and California are already experiencing extreme drought conditions and it is only going to get worse. This will mean more wildfires and it’s also entirely possible that we’ll have even more days of excessive heating,

Our Pacific High has still not set up in what we would call a normal position nor is it at a normal shape or strength. This is going to keep our weather very much the same for the foreseeable future and make for a very interesting TransPac. Currently, the Pacific High is flattened along a line at about 40°N from about 140°W-170°W and is only at 1032MB where it would normally be round in shape, centered near 45°N and 145°W and be 1035 to 1040MB. The other feature of note today is the 500MB charts which show only a small piece of the jet stream because it is so far north. There is a small meander that shows up at the 48-hour forecast however that becomes an upper-level, cut-off low-pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska. The good news is that this will help keep the smoke from the Canadian fires headed to the east. The current haze we are seeing is upper-level smoke from wildfires in Siberia. Today’s Sat Pic shows the smoke from fires in California, Southern Oregon, and SW Washington all being pushed to the east.

The surface forecast charts for the 17^th show the Pacific High starting to become round but also weakening, shifting to the west and the south. This is caused by a weak low-pressure system (1017MB) moving to the east at about 45°N. The other feature of note is off the chart to the south and that is the formation of a Cat 2 Hurricane Felicia which now has sustained winds of 100-knots and gusts to 120-knots. There is also potential for a second hurricane to form just in back of Felicia. The good news is that Felicia will stay on a due westerly course at about 15°N and will run into cooler water and weaken. The next storm could be larger and move on a more northerly path which could take it to Hawaii but probably only as a tropical storm.

It’s going to be another beautiful weekend to be on the water especially if you have a powerboat. With high pressure offshore and low pressure inland this will maintain an onshore flow at least well into next week. As usual, the most wind will be in the afternoons in the Central and Eastern Straits. A thermal northerly will fill down the Sound in the afternoons however the rest of the time it will be light. The timing for the northerly filling down will be dependent upon how soon the clouds burn off and the land can start heating.

Be safe, use tons of sunblock, and enjoy the weekend.

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 9, 10, 11, 12 July. STYC Three Buoy Fiasco

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs, Weather July 9, 2021July 9, 2021 0 Comment

Yet another beautiful week for weather in the PacNW. The only problem will be that this is still relatively early in the summer and with the excessive heat last week, everything is already at an August level of dryness. This will mean more wildfires and it’s also entirely possible that we’ll have even more days of excessive heating, We are also at 24 days without rain and there is no end in sight for that trend. Even though we did have a very heavy mist on the Straits early Wednesday morning, not enough to show on the rain gauge but I did have to turn on the wipers to clear the windshield.

Our Pacific High has still not set up in what we would call a normal position nor is it at a normal shape or strength. This is going to keep our weather very much the same for the foreseeable future and make for a very interesting TransPac. Currently, the Pacific High is flattened along a line at about 40°N from about 130°W-175°E and is only at 1029 to 1031MB where it would normally be round in shape, centered near 45°N and 145°W and be 1035 to 1040MB. The other feature of note today are the 500MB charts which show only a small piece of the jet stream because it is so far north. There is a small meander that shows up at the 48-hour forecast however that becomes an upper-level, cut-off low-pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska.

It’s going to be another beautiful weekend to be on the water especially if you have a powerboat. With high pressure offshore and low pressure inland this will maintain an onshore flow at least well into next week. It will also keep the smoke from the Canadian fires headed to the east. As usual, the most wind will be in the afternoons in the Central and Eastern Straits. A thermal northerly will fill down the Sound in the afternoons however the rest of the time it will be light.

One of the reasons we like the Three Buoy Fiasco is that you only have three marks and you can take them in any order. You can also start either direction and since it’s a staggered start with handicaps applied you can find some interesting starting situations. The question is always which way to go first. This year there is no clear answer so you will want to note current conditions before you leave the house and then once you get out on the course. The current models show there may be a residual southerly in the central Sound in the morning with a dead zone north of Shilshole. Combine this with the tidal currents and if there is wind to the south and no wind to the north, you’re going south first. Plus you get some help from the flood tide.

Tidal Currents West Point

0848 Slack

1442 Max Flood 1.15knts

1748 Slack

Once you get around the south mark it will be a close reach that turns into a beat as the wind goes around to the NW around noon to 1400 hrs.

Regardless, it will be fun! Be safe, use the sunblock, and have a great time.

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 2, 3, 4, and 5 July. Have a SAFE and great 4th,

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs July 2, 2021July 2, 2021 0 Comment

The forecast is pretty simple for this holiday weekend, it’s going to be great. The only problem may be that the very hot weather we had earlier this week has created a real tinderbox in the PacNW. Already fires are kicking off in BC and it’s only a matter of time before they get going around here. Time to put those fireworks away.

The Pacific High continues to be weak however there are signs that it may be stabilizing and beginning to take a more normal shape and position. If you’re getting ready for TransPac the projected shape and position of the Pac High on July 6^th should catch your eye. It’s getting stronger but well to the west and a further south than what we would call “normal”.

For the PacNW the high will keep our conditions warm and dry with some breeze in the Straits on Saturday and late Sunday. This morning near dawn we had some fog in the eastern and central Straits however it burned off very quickly. Winds over the rest of the Salish Sea will remain light with some thermal northerlies developing in the afternoon over the central Sound.

It is also interesting to note the 500MB (upper air) charts as the jet stream is now well to the north of us with the addition of an upper level low off of our coast. We’ll see how long that stays in that position as it will now help keep the smoke from the fires in BC from coming down into the Sound.

Enjoy your holiday weekend, discourage fireworks, and stay safe.

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx (HOT) for 25, 26, 27, 28, and 29 June.

Kurt Hoehne Bruce's Briefs, Weather June 26, 2021June 25, 2021 0 Comment

So much for the old adage that summer doesn’t start in Seattle until the 5 of July. If however, you like heat, the next two weeks are for you with this coming Monday possibly being the highest temperature ever recorded in Seattle since records were kept. Some models are showing the high on Monday being 107°F, with Portland baking at 114°F on Sunday and 113°F on Monday. The high temp for Seattle isn’t predicted to be below 80°F until the 9^th of July. Darn, if only I had ordered AC last winter.

Today’s surface analysis chart, satellite pic, and tomorrow’s surface forecast chart show the reason for this unusual (or maybe the new norm) weather. We have a very elongated and relatively weak high-pressure system off the coast with a weak high in northern BC and two highs over central Oregon and central California. The weak (1013MB) low-pressure off of our coast isn’t moving and isn’t strong enough to push the high around. In combination with the fact that we are just a week past the Solstice, the sun is spending a lot of time heating the ground and with a lot of green foliage around to absorb this energy the air is just going to get warmer and thermal throughs will develop inland creating an offshore breeze Saturday through Monday. The offshore breeze combined with downslope compressional heating is what will create the record highs Sunday and Monday. Note also the surface forecast chart for the 26^th and the 27^th which show no less than six thermal low troughs over the West Coast and one that has been pushed offshore. It is going to be HOT!

As we have mentioned previously, as long as the jet stream stays south, our temperatures will remain cool. Now that the jet stream is now coming ashore near Yakutat, AK and an upper-level high-pressure system is sitting over us, temps will remain warm and these systems won’t move very much.

This will be pretty good weather for boating especially if you are a powerboater. Winds will be light except in the Eastern Straits and Central Sound on Saturday afternoon when we’ll have a westerly in the Straits and a northwesterly in the Sound. Since this is a thermally generated breeze, it will ease as the sun goes down. Sunday, the breeze will stay light in the Straits while another thermal breeze develops in the Central Sound which will bring Mother Natures’ air condioning into the areas next to the water. Areas away from the water will remain hot.

Break out the sunblock early and don’t forget that while the air is very hot, the Sound is still very cool and hypothermia can still be a killer.

Be safe and have a great weekend.

Ed. note: Our intrepid meteorologist did this report in challenging circumstances on the road. Thanks, Bruce!

Kurt Hoehne

Kurt grew up racing and cruising in the Midwest, and has raced Lasers since the late 1970s. Currently he is a broker at Swiftsure Yachts. He has been Assistant Editor at Sailing Magazine and a short stint as Editor of Northwest Yachting. Through Meadow Point Publishing he handles various marketing duties for smaller local companies. He currently is partners on a C&C 36 which he cruises throughout the Northwest. He’s married to the amazing Abby and is father to Ian and Gabe.

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 11, 12, 13, 14, June. Lots Going on this weekend! Rain today, nice day tomorrow, more rain on Sunday.

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs, Weather June 11, 2021June 11, 2021 0 Comment

The Pacific NW Offshore (formerly Oregon Offshore) got off to a nice start yesterday and had a fairly speedy run up the coast ahead of the front that is passing over the area today. Unfortunately, as the fleet turned the corner at Neah Bay and started towards Port Angeles, the breeze quit. One boat, Haven, in the Cruising Class used their four-hour powering allowance to move right up to the leader, Rage who is now 22 miles from the finish. I included the track which shows Rage spent a fair amount of time going nowhere. The outlook for more wind isn’t good even though at Diamond Point on Discovery Bay we now have 30-knots of SE. While Port Angeles Coast Guard Station is showing NNW at 3, the Ediz Eddy is definitely in play. There is just not going to be much wind in the Central Strait until midday tomorrow. There will be patches of breeze maybe to 10 knots but those will come and go.

Certainly can’t complain about the rain today, we need it, don’t worry, tomorrow is going to great with some rain returning on Sunday. So just how bad is the drought in the west? I enclose this comparison for your edification.

Tomorrow will be the best day of the weekend with lots of attempted sailing going on. In Canada (not yet open to Americans) they were going to have the Round Bowen Island Race however that has been canceled. In the Central Sound, we’ll have the WSSA Blake Island Race, Leukemia Cup Regatta, and the Summer Vashon. All of these will be light air affairs.

In the North Sound, we’ll have Mad Dash out of Edmonds which of all the events this weekend has the best chance of having some breeze.

Today’s Surface Analysis and Satellite Pic show why we are going to have such a light air weekend, there simply isn’t much of a pressure gradient. That low-pressure system offshore with its’ attached frontal system is slowly weakening and not moving very far or very fast. The Jet stream is still to the south of us and will only move slightly to the north over the next couple of days. This will keep temps on the cool side bring us sporadic showers through the upcoming week. As I said, I’m fine with that. Anything to keep the fire danger down.

Todays 500MB Analysis has an interesting upper-level cut-off low in the western Pacific which we should watch

The Chart for tomorrow shows an increasing gap in the pressure gradient, with a weak high-pressure system over Central Washington.

The Surface Chart for Sunday shows a weak warm front moving over the Sound with the offshore low still not moving very much, if at all. The 500Mb Chart confirms why.

The Surface Chart for Monday still has the front from Sunday still over the area and the offshore low weakening to 1004Mb and remaining stationery.

The 500Mb Chart for the 15^th of June shows the jet stream taking quite a wild meander after it leaves our area.

Have a great weekend and congrats to all participants in the WA360 Race which started on Monday. The first boats finished yesterday with monhulls beating multihulls and while the human-powered boats led all the way to Bellingham they finally ran out of gas and the sailboats caught up very quickly when there was finally some wind. Exciting finish to watch yesterday.

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 4, 5, 6, and 7 June, SYC Blake Island Race

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs, Racing June 4, 2021June 4, 2021 1 Comment

Lots of sailboat racing this weekend as well as this coming week. SYC will run the last race of its’ Tri-Island Series on Saturday with numerous other races around the Salish Sea. For the most part, racers will have breeze on Saturday as a system moves through bringing a strong onshore flow down the Straits with the potential for gale warnings in the eastern Straits late Saturday afternoon.

The surface analysis chart and the sat pic for today show the front as it’s approaching the coast with some pre-frontal showers already in the Straits. The low-pressure system associated with the front is weak and will quickly move to the east, to be followed by yet another weaker system on Sunday. The good news is that the Pacific High is slowly moving into a more normal position. This won’t help the WA 360 Race which starts on Monday and that will be a long, light air affair. The better outlook is for the Pacific NW Offshore Race which starts on Thursday. With the Pacific High continuing to strengthen that race could have 12-18 knots of NW breeze for the start with the breeze easing and backing by the afternoon. We will have a special pre-race forecast up on Wednesday late afternoon.

For the Blake Island Racers, this weather will present a mixed bag of conditions with a nice southwesterly to start however the onshore flow coming down the Straits will bring a northerly to the course around mid-day. There will be some light air in the transition however it won’t last long. There also will not be a lot of tidal current to worry about.

Tidal Currents at West Point

0636 Slack

1206 Max Flood .61 knots

1430 Slack

1548 Max Ebb .2 knots

1854 Slack

Even with shifting conditions, it will still be a quick race for the big boats which will have a big advantage being the first start. Today’s model has Zvi around the course in just over three hours finishing about 10 minutes after noon. The J-105’s will be around the course in five hours finishing just after 1400 hours.

The Seventy48 Race starts tonight and should have mostly downwind conditions at least until Admiralty Inlet.

Have a great weekend.

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 28, 29, 30, 31 May, Memorial Day Weekend!

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs May 28, 2021May 28, 2021 0 Comment

We had another day of wild weather yesterday with some heavy rain in places. Even with that, we are still about .75 inches behind for the month and about .5 inches behind for the year. That system has moved east and now we are looking at what should be a very nice holiday weekend.

The overall weather pattern hasn’t changed much with a weak high-pressure system offshore and lower pressure on the other side of the Cascades. As you can see from the surface Charts high pressure will build over the Salish Sea and bring us what could be the highest temps this year by mid-week. The Pacific High is still not quite ready to start behaving normally however it looks like by next weekend we may see it start to set up further north and further to the west which could bring nice conditions for the Pacific NW Offshore Race starting on June 10^th going from Ilwaco to Port Angeles.

Not much will change over the weekend with the strongest winds in the Straits happening today and then as the gradient eases over the weekend the wind will ease in the Straits to 5-12 knots from the west. Saturday morning will see a drainage easterly in the east and central Straits of 5 knots or less until late afternoon when the westerly would fill back down the Straits.

So what would have happened on Swiftsure? It would have been light but the big problem would have been the tidal currents in Race Passage. Plenty of current to get us started with 6.5 knots of max ebb at 0900 hrs Saturday morning but the real problem would have been from about 2200 hours Saturday night until 1340 Sunday afternoon where there would have been a continuous ebb tide with 6.0 knots of max ebb at 0950 Sunday morning. Let’s see, what could possibly go wrong with light air and lots of anti-water?

One of the models I ran had the J/35 on the Cape Flattery Race finishing at 1730 hours Monday afternoon. Probably not a bad year to have missed the Race!

Generally speaking, winds will be light over the area but always check the forecast and conditions especially in the Straits if that’s where your cruising is taking you.

Have a great weekend and use that sunblock even when it’s cloudy!

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 21, 22, 23, and 24 May 21, 2021. Perfect weekend for the Anacortes Boat and Yacht Show and it’s FREE!

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs May 21, 2021May 21, 2021 0 Comment

I almost could have simply done a cut and paste from last weekend’s forecast but that wouldn’t have been any fun. We once again have high pressure offshore and low-pressure inland. What was interesting was the mid-week transition where we had a real mix of conditions with all forms of precipitation and enough vertical instability for lightning and thunder. Things have settled back down and this will bring us a fairly nice weekend while we get ready for Swiftsure….well, maybe next year.

We still have a weak high-pressure system (1031MB) offshore and it is not setting up in what we would consider the “normal” position for the summer Pacific High, it is too far south, and too far to the east. The other feature is the relative weakness of this high when combined with the continuing flow of low-pressure systems across the north Pacific is forcing the jet stream into a meridional flow with the jet stream now coming ashore to the south of us which is keeping temps on the cooler side of normal. This is probably a good thing since we are now behind on rainfall for the month and the year. This will change and as we transition from La Niña to a more neutral situation we can expect a warmer and dryer summer which will almost certainly bring an elevated threat of wildfires and more smoke to the Salish Sea.

As we go through the weekend, the pressure gradient will ease over the Northwest however the onshore flow in the Straits of JdF will bring a cranking westerly with gale warnings for the central and eastern Straits. The flow will continue down Admiralty Inlet on Saturday and then ease overnight. As the flow along the coast transitions from NNW to WNW, this will bring a light southerly into the Sound for Sunday. So if you’re cruising this weekend you can run south on Saturday and then run home on Sunday. Not bad!

Another weak frontal system will pass over the area Tuesday and Wednesday bringing the possibility of some drizzle.

As always, enjoy the weekend and apply the sunblock early and often.

Bruce Hedrick

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