Bruce’s Briefs

Today’s surface analysis chart and sat pic’s don’t show what’s headed our way Sunday and into Monday. We’ve had a week of what should be considered normal weather for this time of the year. What is interesting is that we’ve already had two episodes of bombogenesis, which occurs when a low-pressure system intensifies by dropping 24MB in 24 hours. Plus, we have another one developing and it doesn’t show until the 48hr surface forecast chart when we will have 944MB just off the coast. To get a feel for just how strong this system is, note the 48hr 500MB chart which clearly shows the intrusion of this system into the upper atmosphere. This is the strongest system we’ve had this year and probably an indication of what’s to come.

How much it will affect you will, as always, depend on where you are. The coast will take the brunt of this system because as it approaches the coast it will veer to the north, weaken and head into SE Alaska, which has already this year had some wild weather. Almost all waters will see 20-25 knots at some time. Saturday will have a post-frontal westerly in the Strait of JdF with a persistent SE breeze in the eastern Strait and the San Juan Islands.  The breeze will ease about mid-afternoon Saturday as the big system approaches the coast. By dawn Sunday, the pre-frontal SE breeze will be about 15-20 over the interior water with stronger breeze along the coast. Noon Sunday will have 30-35 knots in the Central Straits, 15-25 in the Central Sound and Admiralty Inlet. This will hold until early Sunday evening with possibly higher gusts. 

By Monday this storm will be weakening note the 25 Oct surface forecast chart, pressure has risen from 944MB to 960MB and will continue to do so. It is also interesting to note that the 500Mb chart shows that zonal flow has returned to the North Pacific and it is flying which will continue to bring more weather systems to the West Coast, consistent with the La Niña pattern we discussed two weeks ago. In other words, wetter and cooler than normal weather.

If you’re heading out on the water this weekend be sure to monitor conditions closely as it could change very quickly. Be safe out there.

Ed. Note. – Bombogenesis? Really, Bruce? Sounds like a good name for a boat. Oh yeah, and good luck to all those in SYC’s Grand Prix regatta. -KH

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)

Looks like a nice turnout for the Sloop’s Fall Regatta tomorrow and it also looks like there will be wind! Pretty much a repeat of last weekend with plenty of wind on Saturday and not so much on Sunday.

Today’s surface analysis chart and satellite pic show this weak slow moving frontal system heading our way with tighter gradients tomorrow easing on Sunday with more rain. There will be plenty of pre-frontal SE breeze along the coast, the Eastern Strait of JdF and the San Juan Islands today and tomorrow with winds in the 20-30-knot range with the potential for higher gusts. Center Sound will see breeze in the 20-25 knot range today and tomorrow morning easing to 15-20 knots tomorrow afternoon. Should be a great day for sailing.

Tides won’t be much of an issue except just before noon tomorrow when max flood will occur around 1136hrs and right during the starting sequence for the Fall Regatta. This will mean lumpy conditions near Meadow Point and West Point as the wind meets the flooding tide. With a strong southerly starting today and continuing into tomorrow, this will create a wind generated surface current that will cause the flood to end sooner and the ebb to start sooner.

Tidal Currents at West Point  

0448      Slack

1136      Max Flood            .86 knts

1418      Slack

1536      Max Ebb                 .27 knts

2018      Slack

While the breeze will be primarily out of the south, since the Sloop usually sets their starting line in close to the breakwater at Shilshole look for the breeze to be SE coming out of the Ship Canal. This will probably hold all day on Saturday. Depending on how aggressive your fleet is on the starting line, you can sometimes get away with a port tack start at the committee boat if the line is  at all committee boat favored.  From there you’ll want to work the breakwater up to the south end while avoiding tacking into the outfall from the Ship Canal. After the Ship Canal it will depend on where the weather mark is set.

The beat will probably be followed by a nice run down to Spring Beach with the starboard gybe favored. At the Spring Beach Mark you’ll probably again want to sail long port tacks back to Shilshole and only tack back to starboard when you get headed as you get get away from the beach on port tack.

Saturday will be the nicest day of the weekend with rain returning on Sunday. The post frontal event on Monday will bring a weak high-pressure system to the area and light air that will persist through Tuesday.

Have fun and enjoy thye weekend.

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)

It seems like we’ve had quite a spate of light air races this year however that will change tomorrow as a system comes onshore tomorrow and into Sunday. Saturday at PSSC could see some of the best sailing we’ve had in a long time. Sunday will start with a nice breeze before some post-frontal funkiness sets in about mid-afternoon.

The surface analysis chart and the sat pic for today show the approaching frontal system attached to a relatively weak low-pressure system (1010MB) which will dissipate as it goes through the coastal buffer zone. The other interesting feature to watch is the Pacific High(1033MB) in a relatively normal position if this was the late spring or early summer. Strangely enough, this high will strengthen over the next couple of days to about 1040MB on Sunday and would be in a perfect place if you were starting TransPac or Pacific Cup. This will however be only temporary as a stronger frontal system will approach the coast on the 13^th and the 14^th and it is attached to one of the stronger low-pressure systems we’ve seen this fall (976MB).

One of the great things about tomorrow will be the practice starts that CYC will offer before the main event which gets rolling at 1100hrs. For the practice starts it looks like we’ll have 10-15 knots of southerly which will slowly build over the day. The practice starts will allow you to see if the topographically forced local conditions will be in play. Much of this will depend on where they set the start line. Generally speaking, you’ll hold starboard off the line and head towards Shilshole to see if there’s a southeasterly coming out of the Ship Canal that you can take advantage of getting up to the weather mark and if so then you’ll do a bear away set and hold the starboard gybe until you get lifted and can gybe towards the leeward mark.

As the day goes on, the breeze will build slightly through the afternoon but stay out of the south with few major shifts. Sunday will be very different as the breeze will start out the SE at about 10-knots since this will be a post-frontal situation with a strong onshore flow coming down the Straits and meeting the southwesterly flow coming through the Chehalis Gap and up the Sound, creating a convergent zone from Alki to Pt No Pt. Eventually, this will mean the wind coming down the Straits will gradually fill down the Sound probably around 1300-1500 hrs. This probably won’t last as the onshore gradient will weaken after about 1600 hours leaving light and variable conditions over the race area.

Tides will not be an issue this weekend as the current will be generally very weak and somewhat variable.

Tidal Current at West Point

Saturday

0848      Max Ebb                 .33-knots

1036      Slack

1142      Max Flood            .13-knots

1306      Slack

1636      Max Flood            .78-knots

Sunday

0818      Slack

0948      Max Ebb                 .3-knots

1130      Slack

1400      Slack

1718      Max Flood            .65-knots.

Have a great weekend!

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)

Looks like about 60 boats have signed up for the “NEW” FwBR and it should be beautiful. Unfortunately, today would have been the perfect day for the race even going on the longest of all three courses. Current conditions (1300hrs)  Pt Townsend NW at 15, FwB N at 13, Edmonds NW at 16, West Pt NW at 15. Tomorrow, not so much. We will be following the typical post-frontal pattern in Puget Sound which says that the best day for wind is the day immediately following frontal passage as a ridge of high pressure builds over the NW and that would be today.

It’s called the “New” FwBR because the center of activities has now moved across the Sound from Edmonds to Kingston where the race will now start and finish. With an early start from Edmonds or Shilshole, you can still make the first gun at 1000am.  Kingston is a great place and a great venue for pre and post-race activities, now if only the wind would cooperate…

The other problem tomorrow will be the tides.

Tidal Current at Foulweather Bluff:

0654       Slack

1024       Max Flood           .88 knots

1648       Slack     

As you can see from today’s surface analysis chart, yesterday’s front has moved off to the east with our weak Pacific High still providing us some protection from winter storms. For our friends in SE Alaska, not so much. Please note the blocks that say Rapidly Intensifying and Developing Hurricane Force just off of Dixon Entrance. By tomorrow, the ridge that is building today will substantially weaken tomorrow as the next front approaches and the Pacific High weakens. There will be little to no pressure gradient over the area tomorrow until late tomorrow afternoon when we may see 3-4 knots of wind from the NNE, a direction not know for stability.  By late Saturday night and into early Sunday morning the wind will clock around to the “normal” pre-frontal SE direction while remaining light, as in less than 8-10 knots.

For the rest of the Salish Sea, we can expect winds to remain light and variable through Sunday. A stronger system will move through the area Tuesday.

Tomorrow will be sunny so use the sunblock and enjoy the day. 

Ed. Note: PSSC small boat is also on the calendar for this weekend as is the Northwest Interscholastic Sailing Association singlehanded championships, both off Shilshole Bay Marina. -KH

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)

If you’re going to be out on the water, Saturday is your day! It will be beautiful, temps in the 70’s however wind will be light except in the central Straits where we’ll still have onshore flow giving us westerly winds of 15-25 knots. This will all change overnight Saturday as a series of fronts move through the Salish Sea Sunday and Monday.

Today’s surface chart and sat pic shows the approaching front and the weak high pressure system over the Pacific Northwest. Tomorrow’s surface forecast chart shows quite a gap in the isobars hence the light air and warmer temps.

The Sunday surface forecast chart (48Hr) shows a number of interesting features including Super Typhoon Mindulle just showing in the Western Pacific. We will want to watch this one as it is forecast to increase in intensity. The other features to note are the dual fronts headed our way with a third one located near the 180W which will influence our weather by next Wednesday. Combine these features with the upper level (500MB) charts and you’ll notice that the jet stream will continue its primarily zonal flow while tending to drift to the south. This will lower the temps and increase the number of storms coming into the Pac NW. As I said, welcome to fall.

Sunday will also see a strong prefrontal SE breeze develop along the coast as well as in the central Sound, Admiralty Inlet and the Eastern Straits (15-25 knots). The breeze will ease in the central Sound by mid-day and conditions will remain light until early Sunday evening, while remaining breezy in Admiralty Inlet and the Eastern Straits.

Enjoy today and tomorrow but prepare for very fall like conditions starting this Sunday and continuing well into next week.

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)

Ed. Note: Bruce is back! For a minute I thought I’d have to explain the weather out there. I can tell you it was BLOWING in Anacortes today. KH

I was afraid I have to You would guess from the forecasts that all hell is about to happen around here. The charts, however, tell a different story. The strongest wind is probably happening right now with the strongest winds along the north coast and from Pt Townsend to Bellingham. By 2300 it will all be over except for some southerlies tonight and into tomorrow of 15-25 knots in the central Sound. By Sunday the gradient will ease and lighter conditions will prevail except in the Straits of JdF where a post-frontal onshore flow will develop late Sunday afternoon bringing westerlies of 20-25 knots to the central and eastern Straits.

We still need the rain and judging by the satellite pics we probably won’t get much of that either. We are still about 2.5” behind for the year and about .5” behind for the month. The Cascades will get some rain and even some snow above 6,000 ft. For the lowlands expect less than .5 inches for the weekend.

As you can see from the forecast and 500MB Charts a more typical fall pattern is beginning to develop. The problem as far as rain and wind go is that the lows are still weakening significantly as they come across the Pacific and especially when they hit our coastal buffer zone. The 500MB charts show a predominately zonal flow which will persist into the coming week and bring another weak frontal system into the area Wednesday. The charts still show them moving to the east fairly quickly.

As far as our long-range forecast goes, it now appears we may have another La Niña event developing in late fall and persisting into the spring of 2022. This will bring another wet and cool winter into the Pacific NW so great news for the skiers and then we’ll just have to see how soon our first extreme heat event occurs next summer and what effect that will have on what should be a substantial snowpack.

Just got back from a great delivery up to Ketchikan and while it may sound crazy to do this in the fall, the forecasts were good and we avoided all the heavy weather. You still have to be careful but it can be done safely. We had no problems getting into Canada and the fuel docks were happy to have American visitors. One gentleman in Port McNeill (a great place) asked that we please send more folks up their way.   Checked in with US Customs by phone coming into Ketchikan and again, it was easy.

Enjoy the weekend and it may be the perfect time to check those mooring lines and fenders as well as get those roller furling sails down and into your sailmaker for a check-over.  

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)

We had some rain over the Salish Sea and now we have a weak convergence zone setting up near Everett. At least we don’t live on the Gulf Coast as they are getting ready for Hurricane Ida and this one could be bad as they have already had plenty of rain and the ground is super saturated. In the Pacific we have Hurricane Nora which could impact Z-town, Puerto Vallarta, Mazatlan, Cabo, La Paz, and San Carlos. And we are just approaching the busy part of hurricane season.

We are in for a very nice weekend with sunshine and temps in the 70’s. The winds will be light over the central Sound until the late afternoon when an afternoon northerly of 10-12 knots will fill down the Sound. We will also have usual afternoon westerlies in the Strait of JdF with the potential for small craft advisories in the late afternoon and into the early evening.

The Pacific High is still trying to set up offshore however it is still too weak and will be pushed around by lows coming across the North Pacific. The next system will impact our weather late Monday with the possibility of some light, scattered showers. Since the high is weak and the days are getting shorter this is bringing the jet stream further south which will bring more systems into our region with more rain. Note the 500MB charts. The fire fighters can’t wait for this helping hand. The real question will be can any of these get into California, probably not. Take a look at the Sat Pic for today and note the size of the fire at the south end of Lake Tahoe. 

Have a great weekend, use the sunblock, and be safe.   

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)

You have to admit that it’s great to see boats getting out and doing more long-distance racing and cruising. Zvi, Sonic and Riva have all made it back from TransPac with plenty of great stories. Jubilee sailed back to Portland after having done the Pac NW Offshore Race from Ilwaco to Port Angeles and then cruised the Salish Sea. This week Pasargada cut the dock lines and took off to SF for the start of an extended cruise south. Well done to all of these boats for setting a great example for us.

The weather picture for Salish Sea is pretty much the same as it has been recently. The main difference is that the Pacific High has finally started to set up in a more “normal” position (45N 148W) at a more normal pressure(1034MB), and it is almost round. These would tend to indicate more stability in the high however the long-range forecasts are not in agreement about this. Generally speaking, we will probably continue with the same weather we’ve been having. Not all bad, we could however use some more precip. It does appear that we are probably done with the extreme heat events for this summer.

The pattern of wind in the Straits in the late afternoon and into the early evening with possibility of Small Craft Advisories late Saturday and late Sunday. Wind over the rest of Sound will remain light with exception of mid to late Sunday afternoon when we could have 10-15 knots of northerly fill down the central part of the Sound.

Enjoy the weekend, go boating and stay safe.  

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)

We did get .01 inches of rain last night so our rainless spell is over but it did next to nothing to alleviate the drought problem. We may get more rain tomorrow as another front will reach the area and then linger into Sunday.  So cooler this weekend with next week getting progressively warmer like the 90s  by the end of the week and certainly no more rain for a while.

We still have our weak Pacific High slightly out position at 38N 154W which is allowing a series of low-pressure systems to drag across the top of the high and into the PacNw, BC, and SE Alaska. The 48-hour Surface Forecast Chart is very interesting with nine low-pressure systems including three Post-Tropical Cyclones, two Tropical Storms in the western Pacific, and two more areas off of Central America that could develop into tropical storms. While they are not a threat to any landmasses, they are making the trip back from  Hawaii for the TransPac racers a fast one.  The boats heading back to the Pacific NW may get quite a push from Post Tropical Cyclone  Nida with SW winds of over 40-knots. The storm is currently at 40N 175E but moving in an ENE direction. Nida is projected to be about 550-600 miles north of the boats on the 9^th of August.

The Sat Pic for today clearly shows the smoke from the fires down south still being pushed to the east but starting to accumulate in the Treasure Valley of Idaho. Bummer for our friends in Boise.

The weather this weekend will be cloudy but still pleasant. Saturday will see light conditions in the Straits until late afternoon when a onshore westerly could bring gale conditions to the central and eastern Straits. Saturday morning the most wind will be in the central and north Sound with 15-20-knots of southerly.

Sunday will see light conditions in the Sound with a continuing westerly in the Straits building in the afternoon.

Stay safe, use the sunblock, and enjoy the weekend!

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)