Looks like a nice turnout for the Sloop’s Fall Regatta tomorrow and it also looks like there will be wind! Pretty much a repeat of last weekend with plenty of wind on Saturday and not so much on Sunday.
Today’s surface analysis chart and satellite pic show this weak slow moving frontal system heading our way with tighter gradients tomorrow easing on Sunday with more rain. There will be plenty of pre-frontal SE breeze along the coast, the Eastern Strait of JdF and the San Juan Islands today and tomorrow with winds in the 20-30-knot range with the potential for higher gusts. Center Sound will see breeze in the 20-25 knot range today and tomorrow morning easing to 15-20 knots tomorrow afternoon. Should be a great day for sailing.
October 15 500 MB 
October 15 Surface Analysis 
October 16 Surface Forecast 
October 17 500 MB 
October 17 Surface Forecast 
October 19 500 MB 
October 19 Surface Forecast
Tides won’t be much of an issue except just before noon tomorrow when max flood will occur around 1136hrs and right during the starting sequence for the Fall Regatta. This will mean lumpy conditions near Meadow Point and West Point as the wind meets the flooding tide. With a strong southerly starting today and continuing into tomorrow, this will create a wind generated surface current that will cause the flood to end sooner and the ebb to start sooner.
Tidal Currents at West Point
0448 Slack
1136 Max Flood .86 knts
1418 Slack
1536 Max Ebb .27 knts
2018 Slack
While the breeze will be primarily out of the south, since the Sloop usually sets their starting line in close to the breakwater at Shilshole look for the breeze to be SE coming out of the Ship Canal. This will probably hold all day on Saturday. Depending on how aggressive your fleet is on the starting line, you can sometimes get away with a port tack start at the committee boat if the line is at all committee boat favored. From there you’ll want to work the breakwater up to the south end while avoiding tacking into the outfall from the Ship Canal. After the Ship Canal it will depend on where the weather mark is set.
The beat will probably be followed by a nice run down to Spring Beach with the starboard gybe favored. At the Spring Beach Mark you’ll probably again want to sail long port tacks back to Shilshole and only tack back to starboard when you get headed as you get get away from the beach on port tack.
Saturday will be the nicest day of the weekend with rain returning on Sunday. The post frontal event on Monday will bring a weak high-pressure system to the area and light air that will persist through Tuesday.
Have fun and enjoy thye weekend.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)