Author: Bruce Hedrick

I know, it’s not officially fall yet however it has become decidedly cooler in the evening hours. There is plenty of sailing action this weekend and except for the central and eastern Strait of JdF tonight and tomorrow night, it will once again be a fairly light air weekend.

The surface charts, upper air charts, and Satellite pictures give us a fairly clear overview of what will happen this weekend. We still have that low sitting on the other side of the mountains with a weak ridge of high pressure just offshore. This combination will continue to drive a weak onshore flow down the Straits. Offshore on the surface charts you’ll see a large but very weak low-pressure system (1008mb) with an attached cold front. This system also shows up very nicely on the satellite picture. This will move over the area late Saturday night and into Sunday morning. It won’t bring much if any moisture with it unless you’re hiking in the Cascades.

The Saturday surface forecast chart shows very clearly the reason we’ll be having light air as there is almost no pressure gradient from the Rockies to well offshore in the Pacific and as that frontal system hits the coastal buffer zone it will weaken and just go away.

The Sunday surface forecast chart is much more interesting in that from 20N to 60N and east of 140W we have SEVEN (7) low-pressure systems including the rapidly weakening Hurricane Juliette. Unfortunately, even with all these systems there is still no pressure gradient over the Salish Sea.

There was also a lot of discussion about the new “Blob” that has been forming off of the West Coast which, if it continues on its current trajectory, will have a serious impact on our area which is still recovering from the last “Blob” which was forming in September of 2014. The current “Blob” is much larger and much further along in its development. The reason why is what we have been complaining about all summer; no “normal” Pacific High and with no high, lows have been able to push across keeping the air mass offshore stagnant allowing for more heating of the ocean. The other feature contributing to this is the lack of a jet stream to move systems across and stir up the atmosphere. Today’s 500mb chart at least shows the jet stream trying to make its way south however the 8 September 500mb forecast chart shows yet another cut-off low-pressure system forming just off our coast which will slow the advance of the jet stream as it tries to get south. Definitely, something to watch.

Speaking of interesting things to watch, keep an eye on the Atlantic Basin this coming week as there is the potential for three more hurricanes to form with one of them setting up to be another major storm impacting the Caribbean and the East Coast.

Have a great weekend.

Ed. Note: Bruce is taking some time off to travel Italy and the French wine regions for the month of September. This coincides (purely accidentally) with the grape harvesting season. Rumor has it he’ll be chartering a powerboat. Yes, good Salish readers, we’ve got nothing really against powerboats. If anyone with skills wants to try a weekend weather forecast while he’s gone, please get in touch.

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)

Just when we thought summer had arrived…..oh well, it is after all the Pacific Northwest. I’m not complaining, as I’ve said before, the longer we can keep things cooler with just a bit of moisture, the longer we can keep the wildfires at least somewhat at bay.

Click on any image to enlarge.

This weekend’s weather picture shows that the Pacific High is still pretty much a no-show for this summer with more low-pressure systems lurking off the coast and upper charts continuing to show a persistent upper level low off our coast. Then there is also a large upper level cut-off low off of eastern Siberia that will continue to drive smoke from their wildfires into the upper atmosphere and brilliantly color our sunsets. This pattern will provide a weak onshore flow over the weekend with the possibility of light rain places, widely scattered places. There will also be a bit of a stronger southerly flow over the San Juan’s on Sunday morning so coming south might get a little lumpy. For tonight and tomorrow expect small craft advisories in the central and eastern Strait of Jdf with lighter wind everywhere else.

The Moore 24’s started racing today in a light NNE which always provides challenging conditions off of Shilshole. Tomorrow will bring lighter NNE in the morning with a nice N to NW breeze filling down the Sound in the early afternoon. To be safe, sail your best races on Saturday as wind may be tough to come by on Sunday.

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)

Last night was certainly interesting with a moderately strong cold front that moved quickly through the Salish Sea reminding us that while it may have been in the 80’s yesterday, there is always an opportunity for rain and wind. The cold front brought the temps down just a bit and left us with a cloud cover this morning which by now has almost totally burned off. This will now be the start of a great Seafair weekend and if you’re not on the Lake, you’re going to have a very enjoyable time out on the Salish Sea.

This is confirmed by both the surface analysis chart and today’s satellite picture which show the remnants of the cold front and yet another series of low-pressure systems lined up offshore and headed for the Pacific NW. The Pacific High is still not “normal,” that is, it’s not in the right place and it still is no where near the pressure it should be. As a result, there are now a series of thermal low-pressure systems forming east of the Cascades which combined with the weak high-pressure system in the Pacific will keep an onshore flow coming down the Strait of JdF and generally keeping the weather warm but not hot. In other words, another great summer weekend in the Pacific NW that will carry into next week.

Also assisting in keeping our weather on the moderate side, are the two, weak, upper level lows showing on the 500MB chart for today. One is off our coast, the other is a cut-off low over Vancouver Island. This will bring occasional morning cloudiness over the area and generally act as a lid to keep things from getting too warm. All good.

Conditions for the Salish Sea will tend to be light with very little gradient, with some breeze in the Eastern Strait of JdF in the late afternoon and evening hours diminishing after midnight.

Use the sunblock, be safe, and enjoy our glorious summer.

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)

This is beginning to sound like a broken record. A weak high-pressure system offshore, located south of its “normal” position with an upper level low with an attached and very weak frontal system approaching the coast. As this front approaches the coast, it will encounter the coastal buffer zone and break apart but only after bringing some clouds and maybe some very light rain early tomorrow morning after which we will resume our lovely summer. A much nicer summer than sweltering in the eastern US or Europe where new high temperature records smashed the old ones yesterday. Imagine 108⁰ F in Paris, a city with very little air conditioning.

The surface analysis chart and satellite picture for today provide a very clear overview of what we have going for us. The other interesting chart is the 500MB for today and the 30^th of July which show a persistent upper level low off the upper BC coast. That, combined with two cutoff low pressure systems in the central and western Pacific, explains the Surface forecast chart for the 30^th of July which shows an unprecedented number of low pressure systems lined up across the Pacific. In fact, this looks way more like a winter picture than a summer scheme with eight low-pressure centers and only two high-pressure centers. The main difference between now and the winter is that all of these lows are relatively weak.

So just like the last couple of weeks there will be a weak onshore flow that will bring a westerly flow down the Straits with stronger breeze in the late afternoons and into the early evenings before easing after midnight. The rest of the Salish Sea will, for the most part, see light air with the possibility of stronger breeze in the Central Sound in the same time frame as the Straits.

Enjoy the weekend and be safe out there.    

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)