Author: Bruce Hedrick

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 28, 29 Feb 1,2,3, March. Safety at Sea Bainbridge

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Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 28, 29 Feb 1,2,3, March. Safety at Sea Bainbridge

This is the perfect weekend for the Safety at Sea program on Bainbridge Island. If you haven’t signed up, it’s too late as this great program is completely sold out! A huge well-done to Margaret Pommert for putting this all together. 

As you can see from today’s chart, we have a couple of weak low-pressure systems off the coast with an attached cold front that will move through the area late this afternoon and into the evening. It’s moving very quickly so the high wind speeds (25-30 knots)  over the central Sound will not last long. After frontal passage, a strong onshore flow will come down the Straits and gradually work its way down the Sound late Saturday.  The onshore gradient will ease late Saturday and into Sunday. Today’s prints from Langley Hill Doppler and the Goes Sat Pic clearly show this front.

  • February 28 500MB
  • February 28 Surface Analysis
  • March 1 500MB
  • March 1 Surface Forecast
  • March 2 Surface Forecast
  • March 3 Surface Forecast

The other interesting transition to watch will be the development of a fairly strong (1043mb) high-pressure system off the California coast. It’s interesting in that as this high builds it will have the effect of modifying the upper airflow from zonal to meridional.  Note that on today’s upper air chart there is no high showing below the jet stream and yet by Sunday it is quite pronounced. This will allow another series of fronts to come into the area by late Monday and into Tuesday with more arriving by week’s end. This is all good as we still need snow in the mountains to build the snowpack.

Next week is the start of CYC’s Center Sound Series so we’ll have a more detailed forecast for the race. In the meanwhile, Saturday might be a good time to do a bit of heavy weather sailing just to clean out the cobwebs, remember how to reef, and check the leads for the #3 and #4. Just make sure everyone has all their safety gear, jacklines are run and remember what the definition of heavy weather sailing is: It’s the point at which you no longer feel comfortable with your boat or your crew being able to handle conditions. In that case, have a crew meeting and go over all the safety gear and safety procedures at the dock.

Have a great weekend!

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 21, 22, 23, 24, Feb.

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Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 21, 22, 23, 24, Feb.

Ed. Note: Due to technical difficulties we were unable to post this until now (Saturday night). KH

You’d have to say that it was a pretty nice week in the Pacific NW and that will all change this weekend. This will start as weak onshore flow will begin today to be followed by a weak frontal system tonight and into Saturday. This will keep the pressure gradient weak and result in light wind over the Salish Sea for most of Saturday.

  • Feb 21 500MB
  • Feb 21 Surfae Analysis
  • Feb 22 Surface Forecast
  • Feb 23 500 MB
  • Feb 23 Surface Forecast
  • Feb 25 Surface Forecast

Sunday will be a completely different story as a much stronger front will come through the area. Plenty of breeze over the area and with frontal passage a strong onshore flow will develop in the Strait of JdF. This onshore flow will begin to ease on Monday.

Today’s charts show quite a different picture from last week where we had a strong high pressure(1041mb)off of California. That has weakened to 1030mb and shifted slightly to the west. The 500mb charts show a strong zonal flow over the Pacific which will continue to bring storm systems right into the Pacific NW.

The other feature to note is the remains of a cut-off low-pressure system off California which will bring rain into LA and some snow into the Sierra Nevada’s. All of which is needed.

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 14, 15, 16, February Toliva Shoal Race – and Happy Valentines Day

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Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 14, 15, 16, February Toliva Shoal Race – and Happy Valentines Day

WOW! A Toliva Shoal Race with breeze! Don’t underestimate this as breeze could be up to 30 in the gusts. You really need to pre-plan the race before you leave the dock in Olympia so that you have a plan for every leg including a compass course for every leg so that if there is another heavy squall, you know which way to go. Make sure the jacklines are run and everyone is fully harnessed and safety-minded. Run the reef lines and have a discussion about the order in which a reef is put in.  The other thing to plan for is the downwind start, probably on starboard so think about which headsail you’ll need for the leg from Johnson Pt to Mark #3 at the Nisqually Delta and use that in the starting area but get it set in the port groove so if you do have to change you can do an inside set, followed by short tack to port, then tack back to starboard for the final to Mark #3.

  • Feb 14 Surface Analysis
  • Feb 15 Surface Forecast
  • Feb 16 500MB
  • Feb 16 Surface Forecast
  • Feb 17 Surface Forecast
  • Feb 18 Surface Forecast

After that it’s another spinnaker set for the run-up to Toliva. The beat back will be the usual but as the front has passed, the baro will start to rise and there may be a brief drop in the breeze as it clocks to SW and then to the west. The other key will be the beat from Dofflemyer back to the finish where you will want to work the west shore so you are inside of the lifting puffs while on starboard. As you beat south as soon as you can’t lay the finish, tack back to the west and get back into the sw breeze.

The charts for today tell the story, especially with the new satellite picture. You can see the front slow as it interacts with the coastal buffer zone, it won’t weaken the front much which means breeze through Sunday when high pressure will rebuild over the area Monday and Tuesday.

Good luck, have a safe and quick race.

Duwamish Head Race, A Look Back

We didn’t get a race report out for the Duwamish Head Race, but it was a great second race in the South Sound Series. Here are the results and some of Jan Anderson’s photos, you know, to get you primed for this weekend.

Crossfire’s Track for Duwamish Head 2020

There was a man-overboard incident aboard Miss Mayhem. We’re expecting a sea-boots on the deck incident report in the near future and some observations from Jan Anderson’s photo boat Once again, Jan and Skip were on hand to help out. -Kurt Hoehne

Here are some of Jan’s photos. The rest are here.

And the results…..

PHRF-2 (8 boats) (top)
Series Standing – 1 race scored

PosSail  Boat  RatingSkipperYacht ClubCorrected 1 TotalPos
1  18  JAM  -0  John McPhail   GHYC  04:08:06  1  1  1  
2  52529  Constellation  24  Ronald Holbrook   CYCT  04:09:44  2  2  2  
3  9700  Dark Star  -33  Jonathan McKee   SYC  04:12:41  3  3  3  
4  50330  FLASH  15  J McKay   STYC  04:12:51  4  4  4  
5  52725  Sonic  -90  Marek Omilian   STYC  04:16:07  5  5  5  
6  55155  Crossfire  -102  Lou Bianco   STYC  04:32:40  6  6  6  
7  3909  Absolutely  18  Charlie Macaulay   CYC – Seattle  NO TIME  7/DNF  7  7  
8  USA 52  Mist  -90  Steve Johnson   CYC Seattle  NO TIME  9/DNC  9  8  

PHRF-3 (6 boats) (top)
Series Standing – 1 race scored

PosSail  Boat  RatingSkipperYacht ClubCorrected 1 TotalPos
1  58  Izakaya  57  Iain Christenson   Seattle YC  03:59:20  1  1  1  
2  Usa27  Kahuna  48  John Leitzinger   Cyct  03:59:30  2  2  2  
3  69087  String Theory  57  Robert King   CYC Seattle  04:01:16  3  3  3  
4  60919  EQUUS  63  Dean Conti   TTPYC  04:03:55  4  4  4  
5  82  McSwoosh  66  Clark McPherson   ssss  04:06:40  5  5  5  
6  25064  korina korina  66  Jon Knudson   ssss  NO TIME  6/DNF  6  6  

PHRF-4 (12 boats) (top)
Series Standing – 1 race scored

PosSail  Boat  RatingSkipperYacht ClubCorrected 1 TotalPos
1  171  Lodos  69  Tolga Cezik   CYC  03:58:09  1  1  1  
2  248  Tantivy  69  Stuart Burnell   CYC Seatle  04:00:10  2  2  2  
3  40622  Grace E  72  Brian White   CYCT  04:03:36  3  3  3  
4  18320  Great White  72  DAN WIERMAN   WSCYC  04:07:27  4  4  4  
5  87652  Altair  72  Jason Vannice   SSSS  04:08:09  5  5  5  
6  77707  Darkside  72  Nicholas Leede   SYC  04:12:45  6  6  6  
7  97848  Intrepid  72  Patrick Robinson   CYCT  04:19:43  7  7  7  
8  69112  the Boss  72  Chad Stenwick   wscyc  04:20:45  8  8  8  
9  18324  Rock Paper Scissors  72  Hans Seegers   South sound sailing society  04:25:43  9  9  9  
10  41729  Perplexity  72  John Wilkerson   STYC  04:26:21  10  10  10  
11  161  Jeopardy  69  Ed Pinkham   CYCT  NO TIME  13/DNC  13T  11  
11  28335  Solution  72  Tyson Varosyan   STYC  NO TIME  13/DNC  13T  11  

PHRF-5 (4 boats) (top)
Series Standing – 1 race scored

PosSail  Boat  RatingSkipperYacht ClubCorrected 1 TotalPos
1  19  Goes to 11  90  Jeremy Bush   CYCT  04:18:56  1  1  1  
2  26001  Dos  81  Ian Beswick   Port Madison  04:27:22  2  2  2  
3  69708  Passion  78  Michael Johnston   GHYC  04:59:59  3  3  3  
4  69600  Seabiscuit  81  Andrew Norton   TTPYC  05:00:17  4  4  4  

PHRF-6 (3 boats) (top)
Series Standing – 1 race scored

PosSail  Boat  RatingSkipperYacht ClubCorrected 1 TotalPos
1  174  Dulcinea  93  Matthew Gardner-Brown   West Sound Corinthian  03:55:43  1  1  1  
2  59718  Sidewinder  99  Mike and Brad Jones   Tacoma Yacht Club  04:00:59  2  2  2  
3  69914  Madame Pele  108  Tom Andrewes   LIYC  NO TIME  4/DNC  4  3  

PHRF-7 (3 boats) (top)
Series Standing – 1 race scored

PosSail  Boat  RatingSkipperYacht ClubCorrected 1 TotalPos
1  73392  Bodacious  129  J Rosenbach   Ssss  03:50:33  1  1  1  
2  69360  Chinook  138  jj Hoag   SYC CYC Seattle  03:53:14  2  2  2  
3  69299  Slick  120  Christine Nelson & Paul Grove   CYCT  04:04:02  3  3  3  

PHRF-8 (4 boats) (top)
Series Standing – 1 race scored

PosSail  Boat  RatingSkipperYacht ClubCorrected 1 TotalPos
1  77058  Nimbus  177  Mark Harang   TTPYC  03:46:28  1  1  1  
2  29456  CHEROKEE  156  Pat Stewart   TTPYC  03:51:56  2  2  2  
3  18715  Blue Max  144  Charles Hendrick   TTPYC  04:27:37  3  3  3  
4  52  Solitaire  159  Chris Caudill   TTPYC  NO TIME  4/DNF  4  4  

Cruising-NFS (1 boats) (top)
Series Standing – 1 race scored

PosSail  Boat  RatingSkipperYacht ClubCorrected 1 TotalPos
1  39110  KOOSAH  177  DAVE KNOWLTON   South Sound Sailing Society  NO TIME  2/DNS  2  1  

Commodore-FS (5 boats) (top)
Series Standing – 1 race scored

PosSail  Boat  RatingSkipperYacht ClubCorrected 1 TotalPos
1  9678  White Squall  132  Roger Deitz   TYC  04:19:33  1  1  1  
2  0  Steamy Windows  141  Laura Sullivan   Corinthian Yaht club  04:39:04  2  2  2  
3  422  Miss Mayhem  228  Melissa Davies   TTPYC  NO TIME  3/DNF  3T  3  
3  312  Specific Impulse  271  Andrew Ellsberry   Northwest Multihull Association  NO TIME  3/DNF  3T  3  
4  1167  GreyBeard  195  Mark Anderson   P.O.Y.C.  NO TIME  6/DNC  6  4  

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 7, 8, 9, and 10 Feb

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As we said last week, yes, the rain will end and now we have a pretty good idea as to when that will happen and it’s looking like Sunday is a pretty good bet! In the meanwhile we still have yet another quick hitter coming through tonight and lasting into Saturday. The other impressive feature this weekend will be the seas in the coastal waters which will build to 20-25-feet. This will make the bars at the river mouths pretty exciting places and probably not anywhere you want to be especially on an ebb tide.

Today’s surface analysis chart shows a stalled front over the Pacific NW with a rapidly moving low coming right over us tomorrow. The center of the low will cover almost 700 miles in 24-hours which is good because that means it won’t have the opportunity to drop a bunch of rain on us as it moves rapidly to the east and high pressure builds not only in BC but in the Pacific off of the West Coast. By Sunday we’ll have a very strong (1041MB) high right off of our coast as well as two secondary high-pressure systems in BC that are not wimps. These will keep the next frontal systems at bay until late Tuesday and early Wednesday when another weak cold front will pass over the area.

  • Feb 7 500MB
  • Feb 7 Surface Analysis
  • Feb 8 Surface Forecast
  • Feb 9 500 MB
  • Feb 9 Surface Forecast
  • Feb 11 500MB
  • Feb 11 Surface Forecast

The other interesting feature of note in the 96-hr, 11 Feb surface chart is that the high has now weakened to 1036mb and is no longer as round as it used to be which means it will be pushed around by the next series of fronts that will be passing over it.

Feb 7

Another interesting feature on the 96-hr forecast chart is that low-pressure system lurking to the east of the Hawaiian Islands and moving towards the north end of that chain. I only point this out because, for the last two years in a row when this has occurred and been associated with an upper-level cutoff low-pressure system, Kauai has been pounded with extremely heavy rainfall resulting in catastrophic flooding in the Hanalei Valley. Take a look at the 500mb charts. The only difference has been that the two previous events occurred in April and this foretold an early move to the north by the jet stream which in turn brought a very early spring to the Pacific Northwest. We’ll see.

For the inland waters of Salish Sea, we can expect a nice onshore, post-frontal northerly breeze for the north and central Sound for Saturday. As this shifts to an offshore flow on Sunday, this will bring light air to our waters but at least it will also bring some sunshine.

Enjoy the weekend and get ready for Toliva Shoal next weekend.

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 31 Jan, 1,2,3, Feb. Will it ever stop Raining?

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Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 31 Jan, 1,2,3, Feb. Will it ever stop Raining?

First of all, a BIG Thank You to all who took my weather class this Wednesday, to those who attended the seminar last night at the Boat Show and to those of you who stopped by the information booth at the Boat Show just to say hi. It’s always great to put faces to names and carry on a non-electronic conversation.

So to answer the above question, yes, of course, it will stop raining just not any time soon. The good news is that the snowpack continues to build in the Cascades and the Olympics and we are now 2.5 inches of rain above the normal average for this date.

Today’s surface analysis shows that stalled warm front that is over us right now bringing rain and wind to the Salish Sea. This will be run over by a strong cold front tonight and into Saturday bringing even more rain and stronger wind to the area. When you combine the factors of supersaturated soil with high wind speeds you can probably expect some trees to come down as well as some power outages.  If you can get away from work early today, it might not be a bad idea to give the mooring lines and fenders on the boat a quick check.

  • Jan 31 500MB
  • Jan 31 Surface Forecast
  • Feb 1 Surface Forecast
  • Feb 1 Surface Forecast 2
  • Feb 2 500MB
  • Feb 2 Surface Forecast
  • Feb 4 500MB
  • Feb 4 Surface Forecast

I think the really cool chart for today is the 48hr surface forecast chart which shows two very interesting surface features. The first being that monster low in the mid-Pacific which yesterday was at 948mb which is the deepest low we’ve seen this winter. It’s also not moving very far or very fast which means it is only going to slightly weaken as it moves towards North America. The second feature of note is that very summer-like high(1042mb) off of the north coast of California. This is very much a high we would love to see for any race to Hawaii. As we get out to around the 4th of Feb (96hr Forecast) the lows and attached frontal systems will continue to come into the Northwest and will degrade that high-pressure system and move it slightly to the southeast.

Now about that rain….This week marked an interesting transition in the NOAA weather satellite constellation as they put GOES 14 into “orbital storage” and brought GOES 17 online to cover the western region. You can read the entire announcement below.   I mention this because today’s Satellite Picture is the new IR version and provides a very graphic representation of the “atmospheric river” or Pineapple Express coming from Hawaii and bringing a lot of moisture with it.

NOAA officials also announced GOES-14, which had been providing supplemental space weather instrument operations, will be powered off and placed in storage by January 31, 2020. GOES-16, perched in the GOES-East orbit, is sending more advanced space weather data to NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center. Additionally, GOES-17 is providing products in a developmental system for space weather. Having GOES-15 in storage allows GOES-17 to operate with sole coverage of the GOES-West domain, able to see the weather, including storms, fog and wildfires, at high-resolution in the western U.S., Alaska and Hawaii and much of the Pacific Ocean.GOES-15 and GOES-14 can be called back into service if either GOES-17 or GOES-16 experience issues.

As always, if you’re going to look at the surface charts you might as well check the 500mb charts as well and then watch as the jet stream where it hits the Pacific Northwest moves generally south as it’s directed below the monster low and above that strong high. Then by the 4th of Feb, it becomes truly meridional in nature flowing due south along the coast.

All in all, it will be a very interesting week for the weather.

Thank you again and have a great weekend!

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 24, 25, 26, and 27 Jan, Seattle Boat Show

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Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 24, 25, 26, and 27 Jan, Seattle Boat Show

What a difference a couple of weeks can make. Our snowpack for both the Cascades and Olympics is right around 90% of normal and we are .75 inches of rain ahead for the year. Now we’ll see if this moist pattern holds up through the rest of the winter. Right now it certainly looks like a very wet pattern for at least the next week.  If I had to pick a day this weekend to go to the In-The-Water-Show it would be Saturday. Sunday is looking wet and breezy so the brokers will love that as only the serious buyers come out in that stuff! Remember to always check the Doppler Radar on the NWS Seattle website so you can see when the next rain will be getting to us.

  • Jan 24 500MB
  • Jan 24 Surface Analysis
  • Jan. 25 Surface Forecast
  • Jan 26 500MB
  • Jan 26 Surface Forecast
  • Jan 28 Surface Forecast
  • Jan 28 500MB

The surface charts tell the story with one low-pressure system after another headed directly into the Pacific NW.  The 48hr surface forecast chart shows an impressive 11 low-pressure systems in the Roser North Pacific LPS index, a seasonal high in terms of total lows.  More importantly, the 500mb charts show an almost straight zonal flow across the Pacific. This will mean that the systems are fast-moving and that is confirmed by the length of the red arrows coming off the center of the lows, many of those show the center of the low covering 600 miles in 24 hours. Impressive.

Enjoy the weekend. I’ll be working at the Seattle Boat Show Information Booth on the main floor at the Clink, today and tomorrow so if you’re down there, stop by and say hello. I will also be teaching the all-day weather class at the Boat Show University on Wednesday and a one-hour free weather seminar on Thursday.

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 10, 11, 12, and 13 Jan, Duwamish Head Race.

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As you may have guessed, we are now ahead for the year in rainfall by about ¾ of an inch and snow is finally starting to pile up in the mountains. All good, now what about Duwamish Head? The answer is that it should have been run last Saturday when we had breeze all day from the SW. Tomorrow will be, as they say, interesting.

Today’s surface chart shows us a very active and interesting weather picture. The most interesting feature is that low-pressure system off of our coast with two centers and quite an array of frontal systems all aimed right at the Pacific Northwest.  The first of these strong frontal systems is going over us as this is written it will be followed by a strong onshore flow starting in the Straits tonight and then coming through the Chehalis Gap early tomorrow morning. Tomorrow’s surface forecast chart has the low-pressure center right over the Salish Sea. Sunday will see the arrival of yet another active frontal system after which high pressure will fill down from the Canadian interior bringing with it a strong Fraser outflow. This will also bring the coldest temperatures we’ve seen in quite a while early next week.

  • Jan 10 500 MB
  • Jan 10 Surface Analysis
  • Jan 11 Surface Forecast
  • Jan 12 500 MB
  • Jan 12 Surface Forecast
  • Jan 13 Surface Forecast
  • Jan 14 Surface Forecast

The Duwamish Head Race will be interesting because there will be plenty of wind in the Straits that will try to fill down the Sound. Unfortunately, the onshore flow coming through the Chehalis Gap will then swing to the north and these two competing winds will have to meet somewhere and that will be right over the racecourse. So there will be wind, maybe as much as 20 knots from the south for a short period of time and then the wind will come from all sorts of directions.  That will keep things interesting, it will also keep tacticians busy and foredeck crews cursing about yet another sail change. At least it won’t be snowing, yet….

Tidal currents won’t be much of an issue and with any kind of wind could be favorable.   

Tidal Current at Alki

0848      Max Ebb                 .61 knots

1218      Slack

1436      Max Flood            .53 knots

1636      Slack

2030      Max ebb                .87 knots

This would be a great weekend to check those mooring lines, open all the locker doors where there are thru-hulls and make sure there is some type of heat on the boat to keep those from freezing. Remember also that with all the rain we’ve had even if your marina is in saltwater there will be a layer of fresh water from runoff on top of the saltwater and that can freeze.

Bruce’s Briefs; Delivery to Des Moines for Duwamish Head Update.

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Bruce’s Briefs; Delivery to Des Moines for Duwamish Head Update.

Bruce is keeping an eye on the weather for the Duwamish Head Race, not just for the race itself but for the delivery. For those not racing, it’s a good idea to keep tabs on things before heading out!

If you were thinking about taking the boat south to Des Moines on Friday, you may want to reconsider as Friday is looking to be the windiest/nastiest day of the next several. Your alternatives are to go tomorrow or early on Saturday morning (the Crossfire method). 

The surface forecast chart for Friday clearly shows the problem for a Friday delivery. We will have a medium-strength low-pressure system about to make landfall which will bring strong pre-frontal breezes to the area starting Thursday evening with a steady 15-20 knot southerly over the central Sound. By 0600 hours Friday morning, this will be 25-30 knots of southerly from Tacoma to Everett with much stronger winds in Admiralty Inlet and the eastern Strait of JdF. This breeze will begin to ease around dawn on Saturday.

  • Jan. 11 Surface Forecast
  • Jan. 10 Surface Forecast
  • Jan. 8 Surface Analysis

This frontal passage will be followed by a strong onshore flow coming down the Straits on Saturday and around the south side of the Olympics. These breezes will meet right over the Race area mid-morning Saturday with a northerly filling down the Central Sound mid to late Saturday afternoon. It’s still a bit early for precise timing on Saturday but be prepared.

A delivery tomorrow will be in primarily light to very light wind.

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for a Happy New Year: 3, 4, 5, & 6 Jan 2020

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Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for a Happy New Year: 3, 4, 5, & 6 Jan 2020

So in the span of just one week, we went from over 7-inches behind in total rainfall to finish out the year only 3.64-inches behind, pretty amazing but oh so typical for the Pacific NW. Now here it is only the 3rd of January and we are already .33 inches behind for the year. Looking at the Surface charts for the next five days we will probably be pretty close to average by next weekend. Just in time for the Duwamish Head race out of Des Moines.

  • Jan 3 500 MB
  • Jan 3 Surface Analysis
  • Jan 4 Surface Forecast
  • Jan 5 500MB
  • Jan 5 Surface Forecast
  • Jan 6 Surface Forecast
  • Jan 7 Surface Forecast

Today’s surface analysis shows a moderate series of low-pressure systems off the coast with a series of attached cold fronts that will start moving through the area tonight bringing strong southerly breezes to the coast, Admiralty Inlet, the eastern end of the Strait of JdF, and the San Juan Islands. After frontal passage, we can expect a strong onshore flow down the Straits as well as through the Chehalis Gap and up the Sound with wind speeds in the 20 to 30-knot range along with substantial rain. 

Jan 3 Satellite Image

The zonal flow of the jet stream will keep a steady supply of low-pressure systems with attached fronts coming into the Pacific Northwest into the foreseeable future. This will be aided by the development of an unseasonably strong high-pressure (1040MB) off the coast of California. Then by the 6th and 7th of January, you can see the development of a very strong low-pressure system (956MB) in the mid-Pacific which will make its presence felt here by next weekend. Maybe even bringing wind for an epic Duwamish Head Race that will go all the way around the course!  

As we get closer to next weekend if it starts to look challenging for getting the boat from Seattle down to Des Moines for the Duwamish Head Race I’ll provide you with a brief update on Wednesday. As usual, in strong southerlies, the most challenging part maybe just getting in and out of the Des Moines Marina.

Have a great weekend and be sure to check conditions before you head out!                                                                                           

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 27, 28, 29 and 30 Dec 2019

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Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 27, 28, 29 and 30 Dec 2019

Ed. Note: We all owe Bruce a hearty thanks for all his Briefs this year. He loves sailing, and he loves safe sailing and preparing mariners. Here here to Bruce. Don’t forget, if you want some expert, professional routing for your big cruise or race, give him a shout.

The rain this last week certainly helped ease our deficit taking us from over seven inches behind to now only about three inches behind for the year plus there is snow in the mountains and there will be more.

As we discussed last week, another system slammed into Southern California closing the Grapevine on I-5 for almost 24-hours because of snow and this won’t be the last time this winter.

  • Dec. 27 500MB
  • Dec. 27 Surface Forecast
  • Dec. 28 Surface Forecast
  • Dec. 29 Surface Forecast
  • Dec. 30 Surface Forecast
  • Dec. 31 500MB
  • Dec. 31 Surface Forecast

For our area, we will continue to have a mix of conditions that will do nothing but reinforce our designation as the gloomiest area in the US. We will have some wind in some areas tonight and into tomorrow however that will decrease as this next front gets stalled by the coastal buffer zone, weakening it and breaking it apart before the next series of fronts arrive later in the weekend.

December 27

By tomorrow we’ll have another weak ridge of high-pressure building east of the Cascades which will give us some offshore flow over the Salish Sea. Then, as the next front approaches on Sunday morning, this offshore flow will become a pre-frontal SE with stronger breeze in Admiralty Inlet. The breeze will then become light and remain light over the rest of the area for the later part of Sunday.

The 48-hour surface forecast chart for the 29th of Dec shows the strongest low-pressure system of the year(951MB) in mid-Pacific with a very impressive attached frontal system that will eventually impact Southern California yet again as the jet stream will drag it that direction. The other interesting feature of note is just how far south the ice-accretion line will come as to almost 50°N. This will be good news for those of us watching the warm water blob off the West Coast continue to diminish.

December 28

As you compare the 28 October Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly chart with the 27 Dec SST Chart, cold water is definitely reappearing off of the West Coast however there is still a large area of above-normal water temperature in the Gulf of Alaska. As this next series of storms come out of Siberia this should help cool this area.

In the meanwhile, have a great New Year and get ready for the Big Seattle Boat Show. Other Events of note:

Jan 18th & 19th The Vic-Maui Offshore Weather and Routing Seminar at the Royal Vancouver Yacht Club at Jericho Clubhouse, price includes lunch.

January 29th Full day Weather Seminar at the Boat Show University at the Big Seattle Boat Show.

January 30th, Big Seattle Boat Show 1700 hours, Stage #2 The North Hall, a free one-hour introduction to Marine Weather in the Pacific Northwest.

Have a good one!