Author: Bruce Hedrick

It’s not very often we say this but this is truly welcome precip. Plus the anemometer on top of the house has quit oscillating between zero and one from the east. It has been clear up to five from the south, YES! It’s not going to last very long however it will bring a very welcome change to our air quality.

The surface analysis chart for today shows weak high-pressure offshore with a weak trough of low-pressure inland. This will bring onshore flow to the Salish Sea and should get the smoke cleaned out by late Sunday. This is also propitious in that this coming week we will also have the official end of summer as the sun crosses into the southern hemisphere on Tuesday the 22^nd also known as the Autumnal Equinox. It will also be very close to the arrival in the Pacific Northwest of our first vigorous fall frontal system late Tuesday or early Wednesday with more rain and wind. Might be a good time to venture down to the boat to check those mooring lines and fenders. It has been, except for a couple of notable exceptions,  a pretty calm summer.

The 48-hour surface forecast chart shows a weak (1002mb) low-pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska with an attached frontal system that will run into the remains of a stationary occluded front just off of our coast. The system we are watching is the one in the Bering Sea which will intensify as it crosses the Aleutians into the Gulf of Alaska going from 984mb to 980mb. By Tuesday it will be overtaken by a 971mb system with only the remains of a very weak (1015mb) high-pressure system between us that low.

This also coincides with a relatively early transition in the jet stream as it goes from a meridional flow to an almost straight zonal flow. This will have the effect of bringing the jet stream south and along with that, more low-pressure systems coming into our area. The Firefighters are hoping for this. It is also interesting to note today’s 500mb chart as it still shows the remains of that cut-off upper-level low off of northern California/southern Oregon. By the 20^th of Sept, the jet stream has become very zonal and moved south from where it is today. By the 22^nd it is a very straight line across the Pacific.

Today’s satellite pic clearly shows the front bringing rain to us today as well as the remains of that cut-off upper level low as well as a marked decrease in the amount of smoke in the atmosphere. It has been interesting to note how this incredible amount of smoke has disrupted the forecasting models we have traditionally relied upon. It is also the reason why we may have some thunderstorms this afternoon as the onshore flow will continue to bring micro-systems with some vertical instability. The Doppler at Langley Hill shows just such a system with lightning just west of a line from Portland to Kelso. Depending upon the density of the smoke, it tends to slow the vertical instability that causes lightning however we will be watching. There hasn’t been enough rain to diminish the fire danger from a lightning strike which is the last thing our firefighters need. 

Also this week I got a note from my friend John who runs the sailing program at Bremerton Yacht Club which is an all-volunteer program using donated boats which require, as you can imagine, an abundance of work to get into safe operating condition. He is looking for some sails for the Columbia 21’s he uses for the program so if you know of any Columbia 22 or San Juan 21 sails let me know and I’ll get the word over to John. If these sails are on the east side of the Sound I will also pick them up and deliver them to John.

Next Saturday, the 26th is the SSYC Northwest Harvest Benefit Race run under the COVID Protocol so that will be fun, besides it’s for a great cause. Plus powerboats can enter as well so why not get out and put a little load on those engines. The deadline for entry is the 23^rd and entries are limited to 75 vessels.  In this time of COVID, Northwest Harvest as Washington’s own statewide food relief agency is being utilized like never before and requires donations to aid residents as they deal with COVID.  

Needless to say, Sailish.com will have a special race forecast for next weekend.

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)

I think we have all had enough of this however it is still going to take a while to clean this out. At least in some parts of West Seattle, we had some rain today. It, however, didn’t do anything to improve visibility or air quality. The problem is that these systems aren’t strong enough to come in and just blast all this stagnant smoke and air out. The Langley Hill Doppler shows some promising rain off the coast and they have posted Gale Warnings for the offshore waters however the coastal buffer zone will do what it does and degrade these systems as they get to the coast.

Overall, the air will remain unhealthy for the Salish Sea through the end of the week. The reason for this can be seen in the Surface Charts as well as the Satellite Pictures. The new, high-resolution pictures from GOES 17 are impressive as well as depressing. I have included a series of pictures from earlier that shows just how far out into the Pacific the smoke has traveled. Todays’s picture even shows how the smoke has now become wrapped around the low-pressure system that is off of our coast. This smoke went out over 1,000 miles into the Pacific and is now returning to our coast. So while we always think that there is nothing better than sailing to get out and enjoy fresh air, that won’t be the case this week. You’re better off to stay inside until this goes away.

The Surface Analysis Chart for today shows a weak low-pressure system off of the Northern California/Southern Oregon Coast with a long cold front attached that extends almost to the Hawaiian Islands. Unfortunately, this system is moving due north and dragging the frontal system that direction as well.  Note the two ship reports off of the mouth of the Straits of JdF that both show light SE breeze and heavy fog.  When you compare the Surface Chart to the 500mb Charts you see that there is nothing to direct these systems into our area. The 500mb chart for the 16^th shows a cut-off upper level low developing well south of the Jet-Stream and not moving anywhere very quickly.

The Surface forecast charts for the 15^th and 16^th show very little pressure gradient over the area however the chart for the 17^th finally shows a weak front over the area. This will still bring only a 10-20% chance of rain for the Salish Sea and still no pressure gradient to bring wind to stir up the atmosphere.

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As if this isn’t enough bad news for one day, how about the poor Gulf Coast of the US about to get smacked by another hurricane(Sally). Then there is the possibility of seven additional named storms forming in the Atlantic and Caribbean over the next seven days. We’re going to run out of names for storms at this rate and we are still at only about the ½-way point for hurricane season.

To top it all off we have the appointment today by the President of a longtime climate change denialist, David  Legates, to run NOAA, are you kidding me???? Well, the Pres has been in California, not wearing a mask and breathing in the smoke from lord knows how many burning pot farms so it may have somewhat distorted his sense of reality when it comes to climate change. Maybe he thinks that if you just ignore a potentially record-setting number of hurricanes and ignore all the catastrophic fires in the West maybe they will all miraculously disappear and any talk of climate change will disappear as well. 

Ed. Note: Fires, like the virus, don’t respond well to the bs science deniers out there. Haven’t we all had enough of this? Let’s get serious folks, and have the US again take the lead in fighting climate change. And science in general. The appointment of a climate change denialist to run NOAA, like the appointment of someone trying to dismantle public schools to be education secretary, is just plain wrong. November can’t come soon enough. Nor can the end of this year.

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)

And they said it would never happen. Don and George Leighton have owned a series of Tahlequahs for the last three (at least) decades and have always set a standard for doing it right. George retired a couple of years ago however most of us thought Don would never retire. He enjoyed being the globe-trotting engineer you could call anytime and he would figure out a way to solve whatever the problem was and get the project back on track. Congratulations Don!

Since there isn’t much racing going on down here I thought I should also mention that one of the very coolest boats with one of the very best (and most fun) crews, one of the best overall programs and one of the best and nicest owners, Lou Bianco, has been sold. Luckily, Crossfire will remain in the Pacific Northwest and will continue to be actively campaigned around here. Whenever that starts up again. (Ed. Note: Swiftsure Yachts was very much part of the deal, with Ken Monaghan representing the new owner. Plans are definitely for the mighty Crossfire to continue racing in the Northwest and eventually leading the way on some ocean races. New boat name forthcoming….)

It’s not as if there isn’t enough weather to talk about. The charts, the satellite pics, and the forecast from the National Hurricane Center will be enough to keep the weather geeks going all weekend. Our break from the scorching temps of last week has brought a little bit of very welcome rainfall which will continue today and into tomorrow. Unfortunately, the rain won’t get much beyond the Cascades where it’s really needed. The other problem you can clearly see in the Sat Pic is the gaps in the cloudiness over the Pacific Northwest. This will allow heating to occur resulting in some vertical instability and this will lead to thunderstorms, particularly over the Cascades. This satellite picture also shows the fires that are raging in California and just how far that smoke is traveling. In the big satellite picture, you can also see the remains of Hurricane Genevieve now a Tropical Storm. Due south of Genevieve you can also see a loosely organized area that forecasters will be watching to see if it will become yet another system. And this is just the Pacific.

If we move over to the Atlantic you will see the possibility of not one but TWO Hurricanes impacting the GulF Coast of the US at almost the same time. Tropical Depression 14 off of the Nicaragua/Honduras border is forecast to drift  to the NW, over the Yucatan Peninsula, into the Gulf of Mexico, where it will find some very warm water  and probably strengthen bringing wind and rain to Texas and Louisiana. This will be followed by Hurricane Laura which will come into the Gulf of Mexico Monday morning and arrive on the Gulf Coast on Tuesday morning. This will all be very interesting to watch as it developes.

For the Pacific Northwest we have yet another unusual weather pattern that is the result of the Pacific High failing to establish itself this year. Today it is at 1023MB and well south and well west of where it should be. This has allowed two low-pressure systems with attached fronts to come in over our area. The second one of these will move over the area this afternoon and with some strong southerly breeze to the Sound and possibly gale force winds to the eastern Strait of JdF. With frontal passage the wind will shift from southerly/southeasterly to a post frontal westerly flow down the Strait of JdF with stronger flow in the late afternoon and early evening hours. By tomorrow morning the breeze will be light over the areaand with some clearing the breeze will become northerly in the Sound and gradually fill from west in the Strait of JdF.

Sunday the breeze will ease even more and fill later. Next week will be another perfect Pac NW week with high temps in the 70’s and lows in the mid-50’s.

Enjoy the weekend.

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)

It may be a bit damp and gloomy over much of the Salish Sea right now, however, it won’t last. Even though I can barely see across the Sound, there are many pleasure boats out and cruising and getting ready for what may be a prolonged stretch of very nice weather.

Today’s satellite picture shows some clearing in the Strait of JdF as well as off the coast, so it will get nicer.

The surface analysis chart for today shows a reasonable high-pressure system (1032mb) off the coast with two weak low-pressure systems inland which will drive an onshore flow of breeze down the Strait of JdF through the weekend resulting in a small craft advisory for the Central and Eastern Strait. Nothing too unusual for this time of the year.

By tomorrow, the Pacific High will become more rounded and more stable bringing a strong northerly to northwesterly flow to the offshore waters. The two low-pressure systems inland will merge to form a weak low-pressure trough (1014mb).

Sunday will see the Pacific High drift towards the coast which will give the Pacific NW some beautiful weather and have the effect of driving storm systems in northern BC and SE Alaska.

The 72hr forecast chart shows a weak series of low-pressure systems coming across the Pacific with attached frontal systems which could slightly impact our weather by Wednesday and Thursday.

So enjoy the weekend, stay safe, and stay healthy.

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)