Author: Bruce Hedrick

Not much has changed since last week. We still have a weak Pacific High offshore (1022MB) and a lobe of that high centered over western Washington. We also still have a thermal trough over eastern Washington. This will keep temps cookin’ over eastern Washington and with that pressure gradient and temperature differential this will occasionally drive an onshore flow down the Strait of JdF, especially on Saturday and Sunday afternoon with the potential for gale warnings in the eastern Strait Sunday evening.

The rest of the Salish Sea will have generally light conditions with occasional spillover of NW breeze coming down the Sound from the Strait. With this configuration, there is still no rain on the horizon. That’s the bad news, the good news is that with this generally onshore flow, Mother Nature’s Air Conditioning will be working and that will keep our temps relatively mild, especially compared to the rest of the country.

The other charts to look at are the 500MB or upper-level charts and what’s interesting is that those two upper-level, cut-off low-pressure systems are still in place since there is no jet stream to move them. This pattern will hold well into next week and probably through next weekend.

For the Pacific Cup folks the early starters definitely had a couple of very slow days. The last starters, yesterday, are experiencing much better conditions and are rapidly closing in on the first starters. The fleet will still experience less wind than what we would consider “normal” for the next 2 days after which the Pacific High will finally start to set up properly giving the fleet a nice ride to Kaneohe Bay. The TP-52 Saga should make the crossing in about 8.25 days to be the first boat to finish.

Enjoy the weekend and as usual, wear sunblock, be careful with outdoor fires and keep checking the weather before you head out! 

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)

So, our rainfall trend is unfortunately continuing so while we may have a bit of light rain on Sunday we will likely end up about .16” behind for the month even after our very wet start. For the year we are currently about 4” behind which is better than last year when we were 6.1” behind. The good news is that compared to the rest of the country we will remain unusually cool for July!

The surface analysis chart for today continues to show a weak Pacific High trying to set up for the summer. The good news is that by 2^nd of July (96hr Surf Frcst Chrt) it is finally starting to find its identity. Pacific Cup racers won’t begin until the 15^th of July, so plenty of room for change. We also still have another weak low-pressure system (999MB) with an attached frontal system in the Gulf of Alaska that will drag over us on Sunday. After that, the weather will remain fairly calm and even summer-like for the next week.

As you work through the charts for this weekend, you’ll notice that there will continue to be a lack of any kind of pressure gradient over the Salish Sea. Great news if you’re a powerboater, but not so good if you want to sail. So don’t expect much wind except in the Central and Eastern Strait of JdF Sunday and Monday night as a thermal westerly will slowly build and then ease after midnight.

The other charts of interest are the 500MB which show the jet stream coming ashore in Whittier, Alaska today and then slowly coming south over the rest of the forecast period. Then we have the chart for 2 July which features an interesting meteorological feature with not one but TWO upper-level cutoff lows in the Pacific. One just north of Japan and the other just south and west of Kodiak. Not sure if much will come from either system other than it will keep our weather cool and calm.

Have a great weekend, use the sunblock, and remember that the waters are still very cold.

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)

Today will be the warmest day of the weekend, with Saturday being slightly cooler and Sunday being substantially cooler. Then it will return to pretty ideal Pacific NW weather with highs in the mid 70’s until Thursday when we might get some drizzle. It’s still so much better than the rest of the country.

We still have a weak Pacific High(1029MB) trying to find its summer identity. Currently centered south and west of a “normal” position. Probably because of that low (991MB) in the Gulf of Alaska with its attached frontal system, that will drag over us on Saturday. The post-frontal flow down the Straits late Saturday afternoon and Saturday evening will probably generate gale warnings for the Central and Eastern Straits. This will ease by mid-morning Sunday.

The other charts of interest this weekend are the upper level or 500MB charts. Today’s chart shows a meridional flow with the jet stream coming ashore in SE Alaska which is why we are a bit warmer than normal. This will change by Sunday as the flow becomes more zonal and the jet stream comes ashore over the Olympic Peninsula bringing cooler temps with it.

Winds over the rest of the Sound will be light with the potential for some northerly coming down the Sound late Saturday afternoon and into the evening. Sunday will see some onshore flow coming through the Chehalis Gap, bringing a southerly flow into the South and Central Sound.

Enjoy the weekend! 

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)

Next week will be quite interesting with the potential for a tropical system to form in the Gulf of Mexico and a heat dome to set up in the Northeastern US with the possibility of setting a slew of record high temps. This is after Florida saw rainfall above 2”/hour in some places, leading to widespread flooding over the last couple of days. We may have some scattered rainfall on the radar right now (Friday afternoon) with the possibility of thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon, however, we will still take every bit of rainfall we can get.

Today’s surface analysis chart shows that we have a weak Pacific High (1029MB) trying to set up off of San Francisco with a weak low-pressure system (1012MB) roughly centered at 52N 138W off the north end of Vancouver Island and another weak high-pressure system (1017MB) in northern BC. All in all, very little pressure gradient over the Pacific NW. This will keep the weather unsettled and winds on the light and variable side, with the possibility of a diurnal westerly coming down the Straits in the afternoon. These westerlies could build to 25-30 knots in the afternoon in the Eastern Strait of JdF. Just how strong those westerlies will be will depend upon how much clearing and heating of the inland areas there is in those areas.

The other charts of interest are the 500MB or upper-level charts which show a meridional flow that comes south out of the Gulf of Alaska coming ashore south of the Salish Sea. This will keep temps on the cool side tomorrow with some gradual warming by Wednesday as the jet stream moves north.

Also of note, last night was the start of the Downtown Sailing Series in Elliott Bay. 55 boats turned out for a near-perfect evening of sailing and fun. The course was the same as always and if you need to be reminded about how much fun casual racing is, this is The Series. Everyone is welcome, the post-race party is a blast and Elliott Bay Marina is the consummate host.

Water temps are still cool so wear those life jackets and use that sunblock! Have a great weekend and don’t tell your friends outside of the Pacific NW how lucky we are!

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)

It’s not very often we get this weather configuration this late in the spring. However, in this era of Climate Change, we have learned to expect just about anything. As you can see from today’s surface chart and sat pic, we’ve got a series of systems that will bring very November-like conditions to the Salish Sea. While we are only about .3” of rain behind for the month of May, we could get a months worth of rain in the next five days.

Take a look at today’s sat pic and then the sequence of surface forecast charts. Look at the 48hr surface forecast chart and you’ll notice that the fronts are starting to line up in the Gulf of Alaska and are aimed at BC and SE Alaska. The tail of these fronts will drag across our area and they have moisture in them. The next interesting chart is the 72-hour surface chart which shows the reason for all this moisture; we will be visited by Post Tropical Cyclone Ewiniar. Remember, it was a visit from Post Tropical Cyclone Freda that caused the Oct 12^th, Columbus Day Storm, in 1962 in the Pacific NW. Still the most destructive storm to ever hit the area. Having said that, it will be breezy and wet but not at that level of damage.

As far as the forecast for the weekend goes, the combination of the atmosphere trying to warm and the jet stream still south of our area means forecasts will be jumbled as in no three agree. The other factor is that as our coastal buffer zone is getting greener as it normally does in the spring and with longer days has more heat capacity. This makes the buffer zone stronger and increases the ability of the zone to diminish the strength of fronts as they come ashore. This is what makes forecasting so difficult this time of the year.

This will make for a very interesting Blake Island Race tomorrow. Didn’t we just race some long-distance race, last weekend? Anyway., if you run the models the fast one has us in 5-18 knts of S-SSE breeze for the entire course. The GFS and UW-MM5 have us starting in a SE just as a northerly starts down the Sound. Then a convergence zone develops from Shilshole to Alki, YUK!

So, if we go with the fast hrrx model this is what it might look like:

0900     SE           5-10

1000     SSE        8-12

1100     SSE        8-15

1200     SSE        10-18   

1300     SSE        8-15

1400     S-SSE   8-15

1500     S-SSE   8-12

1600     SSE        8-12

The other models show about ½ this. At least the tidal current at West Point won’t exceed about .4 knts.

The crystal ball for the above model has Zvi around the course in 2hrs 38 min, TP-52s in 2hrs 48 min, J-109 3hrs 30 min, and J-105 in 3hrs 38 min.

For the rest of the Salish Sea expect light conditions in Admiralty Inlet, the San Juan Islands, and the South Sound.

Sunday will be a different story as the stronger of these fronts approaches the coast expect a pre-frontal SE breeze (and rain) over the area and expect it to build over the day. This front will arrive late Sunday and early Monday with another front expected on Tuesday.

Have a great weekend, stay safe, and stay warm. The better weather is coming.

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)

The big racing for this week started yesterday with the 48^th Pacific Northwest Offshore Race (formerly the Oregon Offshore) which goes from Ilwaco at the mouth of the Columbia River to Victoria, BC. The RP 55 Zvi was first to finish at 1100 hrs this morning with most of the fleet either in the Straits or close to Cape Flattery. It got a little lumpy yesterday with the breeze clocking from the West to the NNW making it a beat from about La Push to Cape Flattery. The 45’ catamaran Cheekee Monkee broke their bowsprit early yesterday but salvaged the parts and kept racing. They will be second to finish. Third to finish should be the Swan 42C Free Bowl of Soup. It will be a tight race for 4^th and 5^th to finish between the Farr 39 Tachyon and the J-120 Time Bandit. The as-always well-sailed Time Bandit should be the overall winner. It should also be noted that the Corinthian Yacht Club of Portland has also gotten away from PHRF and will now score the overall with only ORC-rated vessels. They also did a first for offshore racing, they set a virtual start line as well as a virtual finish line. Very Cool!

Our Pacific High is still trying to set up a little earlier than normal and as you will see in the 20 May 72 hr Surface Forecast Chart it has become a bit more round and strengthened to 1035MB. The Pacific Cup crowd is hoping that this will be solidly in place for their starts in mid-July. For this weekend, the high will be weaker at 1031MB and tomorrow a weak frontal system will drag over the area bringing some much-needed rain, there just won’t be much. This interaction between the high offshore and low-pressure inland will result in various amounts of onshore flow coming down the Strait of JdF. Surges of flow will sometimes make it down Admiralty Inlet and into the North and Central Sound. The best time for this will be mid-afternoon tomorrow.

The South Sound will find itself under the influence of onshore flow coming through the Chehalis Gap. Not a lot of wind but it will be West to WSW for Saturday.

The most consistent area for breeze will be the East end of the Strait of JdF which could see 20-30 knots of westerly Saturday. Sunday the breeze will fill late in the afternoon with the rest of the Sound being light and variable.

Next weekend will be Swiftsure and while I appreciate the inquiries, it is still a little too early for any kind of accurate forecast. That however doesn’t mean I can’t at least take a run at it. 😊. The problem will be the tides on Saturday with a max ebb of 5.7 knts at 0735hrs. Slack is at 1153, with a max flood of 5.3 knts at 1440 hrs. Next slack will be at 1856 hrs with the next ebb of 3.5 knts at 2127.

The breeze looks to be less than five knots for the 1000am start with a light westerly filling down the Strait of JdF by 1330-1430 hrs. Remember, it’s still early in the world of forecasting.

Enjoy the weekend, stay warm,  stay dry, and stay safe.   

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)